Historic Millwork District Master Plan_ERA Market AnalysisEconomics Research Associates
Final Report
Demographic and Market Content
Warehouse District Masterplan
Prepared for:
Cuningham Group
City of Dubuque
Submitted by:
Economics Research Associates
December 1, 2008
ERA Project No. 17886
This study was funded by a grant from the US Department
of Commerce, Economic Development Administration
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Table of Contents
I. Project summary ......................................................... .................................................1
Market Implications ............................................................. ....................................................1
II. Introduction ................................................................ ................................................. 3
III. Market Analysis ........................................................... .................................................4
Population .......................................................................... ....................................................4
Households ......................................................................... .................................................... 5
Age and Household Shifts ................................................... ....................................................5
Household Segmentation .................................................... ....................................................6
Education ........................................................................... ....................................................7
Income ............................................................................... .................................................... 8
Migration ............................................................................ .................................................... 8
Housing .............................................................................. .................................................... 9
Home Sales ......................................................................... .................................................. 11
Urban Housing Analysis ....................................................... ..................................................12
Retail .................................................................................. .................................................. 13
Tourism .............................................................................. .................................................. 13
Economic Base .................................................................... .................................................. 14
Case Studies ........................................................................ .................................................. 15
I mp I ications ........................................................................ .................................................. 15
IV. Appendix ..................................................................... .................................................1
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886
General & Limiting Conditions
Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate
as of the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of Economics
Research Associates and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study
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Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886
Project Summary
Economics Research Associates (ERA) was engaged by the Cuningham Group through their contract
with the City of Dubuque to evaluate the market and financial feasibility implications related to
revitalization of the Warehouse District in downtown Dubuque. ERA's analysis has revealed a series
of demographic and economic trends that will influence and shape demand for development in
downtown Dubuque, as follows:
Market Implications
Dubuque County is the anchor of a 10-County region with an estimated 335,300 residents. By
2012, the 10-County region is projected to experience an annualized growth of about 1,000
people-- Dubuque County is projected to represent nearly half (47%) of this population growth.
While Dubuque County population growth has exceeded statewide benchmarks, annualized
population growth for the city of Dubuque has been modest (0.2 %). Over the next five years,
annualized population growth at the city level (0.3%) is currently expected to trail statewide
benchmarks (0.5%). However, city of Dubuque population growth is projected to be sufficient
enough to maintain the city's share of 10-county population (17.4%).
By 2010, persons living alone are expected to represent 34.8% of non-family households in
Dubuque as compared to 26.8% nationally. These retirees and young professionals will
ultimately drive demand for smaller, urban housing options and maintenance-free living.
IRS migration records indicate that between 1997 and 2007, Dubuque County transitioned from a
net annualized out-migration (447 households) to a net annualized inflow (70 households)-a
dramatic improvement from ERA's perspective. During this period, Dubuque County averaged
353 in-migrant households annually from "urban" counties with Cook County, Illinois, and Linn
County, Iowa, representing the largest share of these flows.
ERA estimates 395 new urban-lifestyle households within Dubuque County since 2000-despite
growth in households with a propensity for urban living, the downtown Dubuque housing
inventory only expanded by an estimated 30 units between 2000 and 2008.
Lifestyle segmentation analysis suggests that the top urban lifestyle segments moving into the
MSA are slightly less affluentwhen compared to MSA household segments overall. Analysis
reveals a median home value of $114,800 for top MSA lifestyle segments overall, while top
urban segments are characterized by a median home value of $84,300, which reinforces the
need for price sensitivity with any urban project.
Condos, duplexes and single family homes built since 2000 representjust4.4% of Dubuque's
citywide inventory-none of these units were built in downtown Dubuque.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 1
• Between 2003 and 2007, annualized increases in condominiums and townhome sales in the city
outpaced increases in the number of single-family home sales revealing a growing demand for
higher-density housing.
• Across the Midwest, cities have seen notable development of modern walkable urban housing.
In these benchmark cities, modern urban housing remains a small but growing share of the
market, representing between 0.4% and 1.9% of total metropolitan area inventory. For
Dubuque, with a modern inventory of about 30 urban housing units, the comparable market
share is about 0.08%, which argues for additional growth.
• Data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reveals that between 1998 and
2007, home values in Dubuque County grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%--while consistent
with state-level appreciation (4.3%), average appreciation at the national level was notably higher
at 7.1 %. This finding suggests that housing prices in Dubuque County can be anticipated to
decline less dramatically as compared to housing value declines at the national level.
• Dubuque County office sector employment grew by roughly 950 positions between 2001 and
2006. Should recent employment trends continue, this would translate into 40,000 to 50,000
square feet of additional office capacity required on an annual basis at the county level. In
practical terrns fi.e. a weakening economy), demand will clearly slow over the near-term.
• The city of Dubuque in 2007 generated $960,502,748 in total retail sales---Dubuque's share of
county sales has remained constant since 2000 despite the city's reported decline as a share of
county population.
• Growth in Dubuque retail sales between 2000 and 2007 far exceeded annualized growth in
regional population or households during the same period-- this is reflective of area income
growth as well as growth in the visitor market.
These market findings point to financial considerations for the warehouse district as well:
While the market analysis identifies a realistic near-term opportunity for urban residential
development (rental apartments), ERA remains concerned about the depth of the local apartment
market if all current Warehouse District land owners choose to pursue projects simultaneously.
The market analysis highlighted a (by Iowa standards) historic trend for growth in office using
employment and retail trade. Obviously, these trends will soften moving forward as the overall
regional and national economy deals with the current economic downturn. For this reason, ERA
expects that these segments will need to happen after initial residential construction.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 2
Introduction
ERA's generalized approach has included the following efforts with the goal of evaluating changes in
the city of Dubuque market in the broader region:
• An examination of existing market demographics and associated trends including an analysis of
migration patterns since 1997;
• A lifestyle segmentation analysis highlighting households with a propensity for urban living;
• An assessment of characteristics of Dubuque's present housing stock and an overview of related
residential trends including permits, home sales, and pricing;
• An evaluation of office market indicators, highlighting trends in office-using employment sectors;
• An investigation into shifts in office sector establishments by size;
• And an analysis of retail market trends, highlighting regional and sector-specific pull factors and
associated trends in Dubuque's retail environment.
• Case studies of other Midwestern downtown markets that have added urban housing in recent
history.
Data for this report comes from several sources including:
• Interviews with key local stakeholders, including developers, bankers, and property owners;
• Officials from the City of Dubuque and Dubuque County;
• The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight;
The Iowa Department of Revenue and Finance;
The Iowa Department of Workforce Development;
The Internal Revenue Service;
• The US Census;
• ESRI GIS Mapping Software
This report is one element of ERA's overall market and financial assessment for the Warehouse
District. ERA has also prepared a financial analysis of the proposed revitalization program, under
separate cover, which evaluates the specific implications of the market analysis for a renovation
program in the Warehouse District. The financial analysis document will cover an array of elements
including estimated rent levels for apartments, office space and retail space, operating expense
estirnates, parking, and renovation costs for the existing buildings.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 3
111. Market Analysis
The following preliminary memo highlights initial demographic and economic trends for Dubuque
which relate to demand for retail, office and residential uses. ERA has examined trends at the city
and county levels, benchmarking change against the greater 10-County region (defined by ERA to
include the Iowa counties of Clayton, Delaware, Jones, Jackson, Iowa, Clinton, Lafayette and
Dubuque, and the Illinois and Wisconsin counties of Jo Daviess and Grant respectfully) and the state
of Iowa. Throughout this document, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has been used to
measure the annualized growth-on-growth of individual metrics. An attached appendix summarizes
key data tables used in the analysis. The summarized findings are preliminary and reflect ERA's
work completed through the end of October, 2008.
Population
Population growth drives retail sales, housing demand and job growth. Appendix Table 1 highlights
historical and projected population levels at the city, county, regional and state levels. Several points
are notable to ERA:
• The city of Dubuque's population grew between 2000 and 2007 by an annualized rate of 0.2%.
While this rate of growth was less than at the state level (0.5%), population growth in Dubuque
County (0.6%) exceeded the statewide benchmark-this trend is projected to continue over the
next five years.
• Between 2007 and 2012, the city of Dubuque is projected to experience an average annual
population increase of 149 persons, roughly 31 % of projected annualized population growth (486
persons) projected for Dubuque County.
• Population in the 10-County region is presently estimated at 335,327 persons. By 2012, the
region is projected to experience an annualized growth rate of 0.3%, an average annual increase
of 1,026 persons.
- Dubuque County is projected to represent nearly half (47°~0) of projected population growth at
the 10-County level over the next five years-neighboring Jo Davies County is projected to
represent just 7.2%.
• As a share of regional population (Appendix, Table 2) Dubuque County is projected to continue
growing through 2012.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 4
Households
It is useful to examine household growth as an indicator for area housing demand-characteristics of
these households including structure, income levels and lifestyle preferences will shape area
demand for housing. Appendix Table 3 highlights household growth trends, important findings of
which have been summarized below:
Between 2000 and 2007, the city of Dubuque experienced a 0.5% CAGR in total households, a
smaller rate of growth than at the county, regional or state levels.
Over the next five years, the city of Dubuque is projected to experience an average annual
growth of 126 households, roughly 44% of the projected annualized household growth (287
households) at the county level.
According to current projections, there are 132,653 households in the greater 10-county region.
Projected annual growth in the number of households is estimated at 708 through 2012.
According to current forecasts, the city of Dubuque has the highest average household size at
2.49 persons, suggesting more households with children as compared to the county, state or
region.
Between 2007 and 2012, the city of Dubuque's average household size is projected to decline
from 2.49 to 2.46, an annualized decline of 0.3% exceeding Dubuque County and statewide
rates of decline. This suggests significant growth in empty-nest and single households, a trend
that will drive demand towards smaller housing units.
Age and Household Shifts
Shifts in local population characteristics including age and family structure inform the nature of area
housing demand. ERA notes important points below as they relate to a growing demand at the city
level for urban housing:
Between 2000 and 2007, notable increases as a percent of population occurred in the 35 to 44,
55 to 64, 75 to 84 and 85+ age groups, speaking to the city's growing role as a community for
middle-aged households and retirees.
Between 1990 and 2010, the city of Dubuque will have sustained an 8.7 percentage point
decline in married families with children-this is in comparison to a 6.7 percentage point decline
nationally.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page S
By 2010, persons living alone will represent 34.8% of non-family households in Dubuque as
compared to 26.8% nationally. These retirees and young professionals will influence city
housing by generating demand for smaller, urban housing options and maintenance-free living.
Household Segmentation
To further understand the demographic, economic, and cultural characteristics of Dubuque and the
region, ERA utilized an analysis tool called Community Tapestry, developed by Environmental
Systems Research Institute (ESRI). Tapestry divides households into 65 categories or segments
based on several key factors including age groups, income brackets, and education levels, as well as
lifestyle choices, neighborhood housing preferences, and consumer spending habits. Appendix
Table 6 highlights relevant concentrations of defined segments in the city of Dubuque, and compares
these concentrations in neighboring counties and at the state levels-segments with a propensity for
urban living have been highlighted in grey. Key findings of this analysis are summarized below:
• Dubuque households tend to be middle-aged to older, and primarily middle-income.
• Household segments with a propensity to live in urban housing comprise 20.4% of Dubuque
households, as compared to just 14.1 % at the county and 4.7 % at the regional levels.
• Retirement Communities and City Dimensions comprise the largest share of Dubuque household
segments with a propensity for urban housing. These segments, in conjunction with an aging
population and projected increases in single-parent familieswill drive demand for rental, multi-
unit housing as well as senior housing.
• Rustbelt Retirees, Rustbelt Traditions and Great Expectations are the most common household
segments in the city of Dubuque.
Definitions for Dubuque's household segments are located beneath Appendix Table 6. Dubuque's
core household segments have been defined below:
• Rustbelt Retirees- these neighborhoods can be found in older, industrial cities in the Northeast
and Midwest, especially in Pennsylvania and other states surrounding the Great Lakes.
Households primarily consist of married couples with no children and singles living alone. The
median age is 44.6 years. Most residents live in owned, single-family homes, with a median
value of $134,314. Unlike many retirees, these residents are not inclined to move.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 6
Retirement Communities- these neighborhoods are found mostly in urban areas scattered
throughout the United States. The majority of households live in multi-unit dwellings. This
educated, older market has a median age of 51.4 years--one-third of residents are aged 65 years
or older. Congregate housing, which commonly includes meals and other services in the rent, is
a trait of this segment dominated by primarily by singles living alone. Good health is a priority for
these households with has implications for housing in areas with pedestrian accessibility to
shopping and entertainment.
Great Expectation- these neighborhoods are located throughout the country, with higher
proportions found in the Midwest and South. They are comprised primarily by young singles and
married-couple families-- the median age is 33.2 years. Approximately half of the households are
owners living insingle-family dwellings with a median value of $114,837; the other half are
renters, mainly living in apartments in low-rise or mid-rise buildings. Residents enjoy a young
and active lifestyle focusing upon going out to dinner, to the movies, to bars, and to nightclubs.
City Qimensions-these neighborhoods are located in large, urban cities. The market is primarily
young, with a median age of 29.2 years. These segments have a propensity to live in urban-style
housing and roughly 63 percent rent apartments in older, multiunit structures. Median
household income is fairly low at $15,628. Top activities for these household segments include
roller skating, playing soccer and chess, attending auto races and shows, going to the movies,
and renting movies.
Education
An educated labor force is a key determinant of demand for office space, especially for industries
that do not specialize in manufacturing. Appendix Table 4 highlights percent of population in 2006 by
educational attainment while Figure 3 summarizes percentage point shifts in these figures since
1990. Important findings are summarized below:
• A greater share of Dubuque County residents has a graduate or professional degree (9%) as
compared to the state level (7%).
• In general, Dubuque County's population is becoming more educated-- between 1990 and 2006,
the percent of Dubuque County residents with a graduate or professional degree increased by 4
percentage points as compared to 2 and 3 percentage points respectfully at the state and
national levels.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 7
Income
Area income growth translates into expanded resident buying power for retail as well as housing.
Appendix Table 5 outlines median household incomes at the city, county, regional and state levels
while Appendix Figure 6 highlights the percent of total households by income. The following trends
are noted:
Although 2007 median household income at the city level is below the state benchmark,
between 2000 and 2007, median household income growth for the city of Dubuque (3.4%)
exceeded growth at the county, regional and state levels. Over the next five years, median
household income growth at the city level (3.2%) is projected to again exceed county and
regional levels.
Households with a median income of $50,000 to $74,000 presently represent the largest income
cohort at the city, county and regional levels. A key difference between the city of Dubuque and
the County is a greater share of households v~iith a median household income of less than
$49,999 at the city-level.
Between 2007 and 2012, the entire region is projected to experience an increase in higher-
income households-- households earning less than $74,999 are projected to decline as a percent
of total households.
Over the next five years, households earning $150,000 to $199,000 are currently projected to
represent the largest growth cohort at the city and county levels~rowth in these higher-wage
households should generate demand for upscale housing.
Migration
ERA analyzed IRS data between 1999 and 2007 to better understand recent patterns of migration
into Dubuque County as a demand generator for area housing, retail and area employment. The
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) collects data from two consecutive household tax returns.
Households that file a return from one county one year, and another county the following year are
classified as "migrants" while households that file in the same county are classified as "non-
rnigrants" or residents. Among ERA's findings include:
• Across Dubuque County through 2007, while migrant inflows increased at an annualized rate of
3.0%, migrant outflows decreased at an annualized rate of 0.4%.
• Over half (64%) of Dubuque County migrants on an annual basis come from outside of Iowa,
speaking to a degree of magnetism for Dubuque County.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 8
Between 1998 and 2007, Dubuque County averaged 353 migrant households annually from
"urban" counties.' Cook County, Illinois, and Linn County, Iowa, represented the largest share
of these flows (Appendix, Table 10).
Neighboring Jo Daviess County represents the largest source market overall for rigrants into
Dubuque County.
Appendix Table 9 highlights percent of migrants to Dubuque County by average Adjusted Gross
Income (AGI). During the period between 1997 and 2007, households with an averageAGl of
$30,000 to $40,000 averaged nearly half (44.3%) of total inflows to Dubuque County-
householdswith an average AGI of $40,000 to $50,000 represented another 26.8%. Overall,
household with an AGI below $10,000 have declined as a share of in-migrating households to
Dubuque County.
Housing
Retail sales follow new rooftops-Appendix Table 11 outlines the estimated number of housing units
at the city, county and regional levels in 2001 and 2007 while Appendix Table 12 summarizes city-
issued building permits by residential property type. Appendix Figure 8 through Figure 10 highlight
characteristics of Dubuque's present housing stock. Important points are summarized below:
Between 2001 and 2007, the city of Dubuque issued at total of 1,347 new home permits, an
average of 192 permits per year. Roughly 3,680 permits were issued within Dubuque County
during this same period, an average of 526 permits per year. The city of Dubuque's share of
county-wide permits grew from 24.7% to 37.4% between 2001 and 2007.
The number of new home permits issued by the city of Dubuque grew from 109 in 2001 to 137
in 2007, an average annualized growth rate of 0.8%. Annualized growth in housing permits
issued at the entire county level was slightly greater at 1.4%.
Between 2001 and 2007, the city of Dubuque has sustained a fairly balanced mix of single-family
versus multi-family housing construction (Appendix, Table 12) -during this period, an average of
42% of housing permits were issued for detached single-family construction, while 58% of
perm its were issued for higher-density housing.
r ERA has classified counties as "urban" if they contain a major population center. Conversely, ERA has
classified counties as "rural" if they lack a major population center.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 9
Considering some 70% of Dubuque households were childless in 2000 and the local population
is aging, demand for higher-density housing will drive the present multi-family housing share of
annual permits beyond the present average of 58%.
Single-Family Homes, Condominiums & Duplexes
Assessor data reveals that citywide, there are some 26,000 single family homes, condominiums and
duplexes. Highlighted below are important findings related to Dubuque's housing stock.
• Dubuque's existing housing stock is fairly old-Appendix Figure 8 highlights that nearly 20% of
Dubuque's single family homes were built prior to 1900. Condos, duplexes and single family
homes built since 2000 represent just 4.4% of Dubuque's citywide inventory.
• Appendix Figure 9 highlights the percent of existing Dubuque homes by total assessed value and
assessed value per square foot. The greatest share (28%) of Dubuque single family homes and
duplexes are assessed between $150k and $200k, with another 26% assessed at between
$200k and $250k. ERA notes a very small share of the housing stock, including condominiums,
is assessed at over $300k.
• Appendix Figure 10 outlines percent of Dubuque's owner-occupied housing stock by assessed
price per square foot. Over half (52.1 %) of Dubuque homes are assessed at $11 1-140 per
square foot. Another 20% are assessed below $110 per square foot. In general, condominiums
are assessed at a highervalue per square foot as compared to single family homes or
duplexes-15% of condos are assessed at over $171 per square foot as compared to just 3.2%
of single family homes or duplexes.
Appendix Figure 1 1 plots the relationship between the assessed value and livable space in
square feet of a Dubuque home built since 2000. Important to note from this analysis is that in
recent years, there has been very little inventory added to the Dubuque housing market with an
assessed value exceeding $300,000. In both highlighted property types, there is a positive
correlation between assessed value and livable space, however, this correlation is more
significant for condominiums as compared to single family homes.
Apartments
Data from the Dubuque County Assessor reveals there are roughly 5,500 apartment units in
Dubuque citywide. Of these units, about 16% are located within Dubuque's downtown. Important
findings related to Dubuque's apartment market are highlighted below:
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 1d
• Dubuque's apartment inventory tends to be old -- of citywide rental units, nearly one-third
(32.8%) of these units were built prior to 1900. Another 58% of units were built between 1900
and 1980. Of some 100 rental units built citywide since 2000, 30 were built within downtown
Dubuque, along upper Main Street by John Gronen.
• Appendix Table 13 highlights characteristics of Dubuque's present apartment unit inventory
including size and rent characteristics. Of modern inventory built since 2000, a typical 2-bedroom
unit is somewhere around 1,000 square feet, a 24% increase over the average size of a 2-
bedroom built prior to 2000. By comparison, 3-bedroom units built since 2000 tend to be slightly
smaller (2.5%) than their counterparts built before 2000. According to available data, a typical 3-
bedroorn unit in Dubuque is somewhere around 1,200 square feet.
• Monthly per square foot rent of a modern 2-bedroom unit ranges between $0.62 and $0.81 psf.
Of all highlighted apartment sizes, one bedrooms command the greatest rent on a monthly per
square foot basis at $0.67 to $0.87.
• Typical amenities for an apartment building in Dubuque include air conditioning, dishwashers,
hook-ups for washer$ldryers, and access to parking. It is less common, although not unusual, for
apartments to have in-unit washers and dryers.
Home Sales
The following section highlights key trends and characteristics of Dubuque's housing market. These
trends offer key insight as to the nature of demand for housing around Dubuque, as well as potential
gaps in the local market. Summarized below are ERA's key findings:
• Data from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reveals that between 1998 and
2007, housing price appreciation in Dubuque County generally failed to keep pace with housing
price appreciation at the national level. Over the noted period, home values in Dubuque County
grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% and while consistent with state-level appreciation (4.3%),
average appreciation at the national level was notably higher at 7.1 %.
• For single-family homes built since 2000, the current median value is $200,500 and median value
per square foot is $129. With an overall average value of all homes at $91 per square foot, the
market is pricing in a premium of about 42% for newer construction.
• For condominiums built since 2000, the median value is $143,500 and median value per square
foot is $140, compared to an overall average of $99 per square foot- a 41 °i° premium for new
construction.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 11
Of the highlighted housing types, condominiums and townhomes represented the greatest
annualized growth in property sales between 2003 and 2007 at 8.4% and 6.6% respectfully.
Single family homes experienced an annualized growth of just 1.4% from 785 properties in 2003
to 830 in 2007. As such, while single family homes remain the largest share of the market,
condorniniurns and townhomes are seeing more dramatic annualized growth rates.
Urban Housing Analysis
To understand the potential for housing in downtown Dubuque, ERA compared the present
downtown and MSA residential inventories with population characteristics, concentrating on those
households with a propensity for urban living. To contextualize conditions in downtown Dubuque,
ERA also examined downtown housing conditions within four other Midwestern cities--Des Moines
and Iowa City, Iowa; Traverse City, Michigan; and Madison, Wisconsin. The study area used to
define each "downtown" is based upon the general boundary of each community's defined
commercial downtown area. The approach focuses on the identification of modern /contemporary
urban housing that has been built in each downtown market, primarily since 2000. Important
findings are summarized below:
• Of the highlighted markets, Madison's downtown is the largest in terms of the number of
"modern" downtown housing units (Appendix, Table 14) as well as in share of the MSA housing
inventory. While Dubuque has a significant number of downtown housing units (over 1,000) only
about 30 are considered modern, which represents about 0.08% of county inventory. For
comparative purposes, modern urban housing accounts for about 1.9% of metropolitan area
inventory in Des Moines.
• Of the highlighted communities, Dubuque has experienced the least modern inventory
construction within its downtown-according to County Assessor data, there have been about
30 housing units built in downtown Dubuque since 2000. This is in comparison to about 1,500
units built in downtown Des Moines; 2,700 in downtown Madison; 70 units in downtown
Traverse City; and 94 units in downtown Iowa City (Appendix, Table 14).
• Appendix Figure 1 highlights the percentage point gap between the 1) urban lifestyle households
as a percent of MSA total households; and 2) the downtown's share of modern MSA housing.
Of the highlighted communities, this percentage point gap is greatest for Iowa City at
approximately 48 points-Traverse City and Dubuque are roughly comparable at 10 to 13 points.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 12
Retail
The goal of ERA's retail market investigation was to understand the current strategic position of
Dubuque in the region, and the competitive position of the city as a retail destination. Highlights of
the Dubuque's retail market are summarized below:
The city of Dubuque in 2007 generated $960,502,748 in total retail sales, an annualized increase
of 3.7% since 2000, representing 91 % of the county total ($1,053,103,348) for 2007. Dubuque's
share of county sales has remained constant since 2000 despite the city's reported decline as a
share of total county population, according to the US Census estimates.
Growth in Dubuque retail sales between 2000 and 2007 far exceeded annualized growth in
regional population or households during the same period-- this is reflective of area income
growth as well as growth in the visitor market.
Pull factor analysis indicates that in 2007, the city of Dubuque generated 23% more sales than
the local population should logically support. The city of Dubuque's 2007 pull factor (1.23) is an
increase over its pull factor in 2000 (1.11).
Pull factor analysis by retail type (Appendix, Figure 7) highlights that in 2007, building materials,
specialty stores and home furnishings generated the greatest sales from outside of the city.
With the exception of 1) eating and drinking places and 2) general merchandise, pull factors for
all retail categories at the city level increased between 2000 and 2007.
Should present income and population growth trends continue and assuming annual retail sales
per square foot of $275-$325, ERA projects 122,000 to 144,000 square feet of additional retail
capacity on an annual basis for the city of Dubuque.
Tourism
The Dubuque region is a significant tourism destination. The success of future development in retail,
entertainment, lodging, and other sectors will link with the region's ability to attract visitors on an
annual basis. ERA notes the following key aspects of tourist visitation and impact on the area
economy:
• Total visitor expenditures for Dubuque County in 2006 were estimated at $236 million. Total
visitor spending in Dubuque County increased from $175.23 million in2000, a 5.1 % annualized
rate of growth. Total visitor spending in Dubuque County as a share of total visitor spending at
the state level increased from 3% to 4% during this period.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 13
Although the city of Galena is regarded as a major nearby tourism destination, total visitor
expenditures in Jo Daviess County in 2006 was estimated atjust $157 million. This figure is up
from $140 million in 2000-an annualized increase of just 1.9%.
Economic Base
Employment growth is a reliable measure of economic expansion and demand driver for business
and housing investment-in particular, employment growth in office-using industries should drive
demand for office space around Dubuque. ERA outlines notable findings related to Dubuque
County's economic base below:
• Between 2001 and 2006, annualized growth in total employment for Dubuque County (1.2%)
doubled state-level growth (0.6%)--Dubuque County's share of state employment grew from
3.9% to4.0%.
• Dubuque County office sector employment grew by roughly 950 positions between 2001 and
2006 (Appendix, Table 16-should recent employment trends continue,
AccountinglBookkeeping, Insurance, and Internet Search Provider~IWeb Search/Data will
represent the top demand drivers for office space around Dubuque.
• Assuming an average rate of growth of office employment of 190 positions annually and 225 to
275 square feet of office space per employee, this translates into 42,600 to 52,100 square feet
of additional office capacity required on an annual basis at the county level. Within the context of
the next several years, ERA would expect lower rates of office job formation.
• Location quotient analysis revealed Dubuque County office sector employment concentrations in
Broadcasting, Traditional Publishing, Medical Offices, and Web Search Services (Appendix, Table
17). However, according to location quotient analysis, several service-oriented industries
including Legal Services, Accounting, and Design are less concentrated than within the broader
study area-these industries may represent opportunity for growth within the county.
• Appendix Figure 12 illustrates that of office-using establishments in 2006, nearly half (47%) were
small, employing between one and four employees- mid-sized offices with fifty to ninety-nine
employees represented the greatest growth in terms of total establishments between 2001 and
2006 (Appendix, Figure 12).
H igher wage employment sectors as highlighted in grey grew as a share of total Dubuque County
employment between 2001 and 2006 (Appendix, Table 19) Wages overall at the county level grew by
an annualized rate of 4% as compared to just 2 % at the state level-- wage growth ultimately drives
consumers' ability to spend.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 14
Case Studies
To understand the nature of warehouse district redevelopment, ERA examined four Midwestern
cities that have successfully redeveloped an existing urban warehouse district--Cleveland, Ohio;
Omaha, Nebraska; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; and Wichita, Kansas. Case studies are located in the
Appendix, with important findings summarized below:
With the exception of Wichita's Old Town, warehouse district redevelopment tended to be
initiated by the private sector.
Common between all four cast studies is an upfront, high-visibility project within or adjacent to
the warehouse district by the City~xamples include major streetscape enhancements,
individual building rehabilitation, and construction of adjacent parks, plazas and pedestrian malls.
Redevelopment tends to occur over a long period of time (10-20 years) and involves players from
the public and private sectors. In the case of Cleveland, a local non-profit (Historic Warehouse
District Development Corporation) was established comprised of local business interests to
manage district and business development activities.
In three of the four examples, financing of warehouse redevelopment extended beyond TIF-
othermechanisms commonly included Historic Tax Credits, CDBG dollars, grants and HUD
loans.
Implications
• Dubuque residents tend to be older than state averages. Reflective of increases in median age,
average household sizes are decreasing across the region. The decrease in household size has
direct implications for shifting demand towards smaller, denser housing.
• Age segment shifts at the county level are particularly notable for elderly populations, empty-nest
and single households-these cohorts should drive demand for housing units that are smaller
and well as maintenance-free.
• Historical housing appreciation in Dubuque County has been below national levels, indicating that
the local market has avoided the worst excesses of the national housing price correction.
• Dubuque's existing housing stock is older, the majority of which is assessed at under
$250,000-condominiums and single-family homes above this price point represent only a small
share of inventory.
• Between 2003 and 2007, annualized increases in condominiums and townhomes sales in the
city have outpaced increases in the number of single-family home sales. The vast majority of
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 15
condominiums (75.6%), townhome (94.1 %) and single family home (82.8%) sales in Dubuque
during this period sold for less than $200,000.
• There are roughly 870 apartments in downtown Dubuque-of 100 apartments built citywide
since 2000, just 30 were built in the downtown.
• Between 2000 and 2008, ERA estimated a total of about 400 new urban-lifestyle households
within the MSA-even as downtown Dubuque added only a modest level of new urban
construction since 2000.
• ERA estimates a 13% gap between the percent of new MSA housing within downtown
Dubuque, and the percent of new households MSA-wide with a propensity for urban living.
• Between 2000 and 2008, the downtown areas of Traverse City and Des Moines added modern
housing units (70 and 1,528, respectively), with varying degrees of public incentive support. In
Dubuque since 2000, modern housing development occurred at a slower pace compared to
either of these aforementioned benchmarks. Given that Des Moines has twice the percentage
of urban segments as Dubuque, ERAwould define the overall local urban housing opportunity in
the 250 to 500 unit range.
Dubuque County averages 300 migrants annually from "urban" counties-these migrants are
rnore likely than those from "rural" counties to demand housing in an urban setting.
• Although wage growth since 2001 in Dubuque County has exceeded statewide benchmarks,
ERA expects that the majority of urban housing demand will be driven by people of average
means.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 16
IV. Appendix
Table 1: Population Change
CAGR CAGR Projected Annual
Jurisdiction 2000 2007 2012
00-07 07-12 Increase
City of Dubuque 57,686 58,399 59,143 0.2% 0.3% 149
Dubuque County 89,143 92,767 95,199 0.6% 0.6% 486
Jo Davies County 22,289 22,823 23,197 0.3% 0.3% 75
10-County Total 327,694 335,327 340,455 0.3% 0.3% 1,026
Iowa 2,926,324 3,030,140 3,110,913 0.5% 0.5% 16,155
Note' City of Dubuque population figu res include som e 4,500 individu als living in USCensus-defined "group quarters"
Source: ESRI
Table 2: Share of Regional Population
CAGR CAGR
Jurisdiction 2000 2007 2012
00-07 07-12
City of Dubuque 17.6% 17.4% 17.4% -0.2% -0.1%
Dubuque County 27.2% 27.7% 28.0% 0.2% 0.2%
Jo Davies County 6.8% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0%
10-County Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Source: ESRI
Table 3: Households and Average Household Size
Number Average Size
Jurisdiction
G
2000 2007 2012 07GZ 2000 2007 2012 07
Z
City of Dubuque 22,560 23,424 24,053 0.5% 2.56 2.49 2.46 -0.3°ro
Dubuque County 33,690 36,006 37,442 0.8% 2.51 2.44 2.41 -0.2°ro
Jo Davies Couniy 9,218 9,701 9,983 0.6% 2.4 2.33 2.30 -0.3%
10-County Total 126,300 132,653 136,191 0.5% 2.50 2.43 2.40 -0.2%
Iowa 1,149,276 1,213,728 1,253,509 0.6% 2.46 2.41 2.40 -0.1%
Source: ESRI
Table 4: 2006 Educational Attainment { 18+ years of age)
Educ tiona~ Standina
e Dubuaue Cou nty Iowa US
Less tan H
igh School 10% 10% 14%
High school graduate (includes equivalency) 40% 37% 32%
Some College 18% 20% 19%
Associate's or Bachelor's Degree 23% 26% 24%
Graduate or professional degree 9% 7% 10%
Source: US Census
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 1
Table 5: Household Income
CAGR CAGR
Jurisdiction 2000 2007 2012 00-07 07-12
City of Dubuque $37,313 $47,047 $55,032 3.4% 3.2%
Dubuque County $39,570 $49,138 $56,995 3.1% 3.1%
Jo Davies County $40,441 $48,627 $54,786 2.7% 2.7%
10-Counties $37,902 $46,459 $53,003 3.0% 3.0%
Iowa $39,448 $49,331 $57,806 3.2% 3.2%
Source: ESRI
Table 6: City of Dubuque-- Top Tapestry Segments
City of Dubuque Jo Davies
Segment Dubu ue
~ County Count' 10-Counties Iowa
Sophisticated Squires 6.O
o 4.2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3%
Cozy and Comfortable 5.8°% 4A% 0.0% 1.4% 2.4%
RustbeltTraditions 13.1% 13.0% 0.0% 10.4% 11.1%
Salt of the Earth 4.9% 11.9% 0.0% 13.8% 7 2%
Home Town 5.9% 4.1% 0.0% 5.2% 4.0%
Crossroads 4.1% 2.9% 0.0% 1.2% 1.7%
Top Segments 76.9% 66.8% 3.3% 48.7% 38.0%
Exurbanites 1.6°,~0 1.1% 0.0°,~0 0.3 °,~0 2.2°.~0
Green Acres
Old
d N 2.5%
1
7% 13.0%
1
2% 7.2%
0
0% 6.7%
0
3% 5.0%
1
2%
an
ewcomers
Prosperous Empty Nesters .
4.0°%° .
2.7% .
0.0°% .
1 .2°% .
1 .5°%
Heartland Communities
S
i
l S
it
S
t 3.1°0
1
8% 2.2°-0
1
2% 21.1%
0
0% 10.1°ro
0
7% 9.7%
0
6%
oc
a
ecur
y
e
College Towns
A
i
i
Y
F
ili .
1 .2°0
2
4% .
0.8°0
1
6% .
0.0°ro
0
0% .
1.6°io
0
4% .
1 .3°io
2
4%
sp
r
ng
oung
am
es
Midland Crowd .
2.8°n .
2.0°ro .
0.0°% .
1.3°0 .
1.9°0
Midlife Junction 1 .9;% 1.3% 0.0;% 4.7°.'0 6.4;%0
Additional Segments 23.1% 27.2% 28.4% 27.3% 32.2%
Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding
Source: ESRI
Segment Definitions
• Sophisticated Squires-these residents enjoy cultured country living in low-density, newer horse
developments with a median home value of $286,622. These residents are primarily married-
couple families, educated, and well employed. The median age is 38.3 years. Top family activities
include playing volleyball, bicycling, playing board games and cards, going to the zoo, and
attending soccer and baseball games.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 2
Cozy and Comfortable-these residents are settled, married, and still working. Many of these
couples still live in pre-1970s, single-family homes in which they raised their children.
Households are located mainly in suburban areas of the Midwest, Northeast, and South. The
median age is 41.9 years and the median home value is $184,456. Top activities of these
households include playing softball and golf, attending ice hockey games and gambling at
casinos.
• RustbeltTraditions- these neighborhoods are the backbone of older, industrial cities in states
bordering the Great Lakes. Most employed residents work in the sen~ice, manufacturing, and
retail trade industries and the majority live in modest single-family homes that have a median
value of $107,222. Households are primarily a mix of married-couple families, single-parent
families, and singles who live alone. The median age is 36.1 years with a median household
income is $49,579. Favorite leisure activities include hunting, bowling, fishing, and attending
auto races, country music shows, and ice hockey games.
• Salt of the Earth-a rural orsmall-town lifestyle best describes this market. The median age is
40.4 years. Labor force participation is higherthan the U. S. level, and unemployment is lower.
These residents tend to be employed in the manufacturing, construction, mining, and agricultural
industries. The median household income is $50,538. Households are dominated by married-
couple families who live insingle-family dwellings- horneo~~~mership is high at roughly 86
percent. Residents enjoy fishing, hunting and attending country music concerts and auto races.
• HomeTawn-- these low-density, settled neighborhoods, located chiefly in the Midwest and
South, rarely change. Home Town households are a mix of singles and families. The median age
is 33.9 years. Single-family homes predominate in this market with a homeownership rate of 61
percent. The median home value is $68,647. The manufacturing, retail trade, and service
industries are the primary sources of employment. Residents enjoy fishing and playing baseball,
bingo, backgammon, and video games.
• Crossroads-young families living in mobile homes typify this household segment, found in small
towns throughout the South, Midwest, and West. These growing communities are home to
married-couple and single-parent families. The median age is 32 years. Homeownership is at 77
percent- the median home value is $74,804. More than half of the householders live in mobile
homes; 36 percent live in single-family dwellings. Employment is chiefly in the manufacturing,
construction, retail trade, and service industries. Top segment activitiesrnclude fishing,
attending auto races and playing the lottery.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 3
Exurbanitev-these affluent households are primarily a mix of empty nesters (40%) and married
couples with children (32%). Half of the householders are between the ages of 45 and 64 years.
The median age is 44.6 years. The median home value is approximately $302,435; median
household income is $88,195. Top leisure activities include boating, hiking, kayaking,
photography, and bird-watching.
GreenAcres---these households live in pastoral settings of developing suburban fringe areas,
mainly in the Midwest and South. The median age is 40.5 years. Married co~_iples with and
without children comprise most of the households who primarily live insingle-family dwellings.
This upscale market has a median household income of $63,922 and a median home value of
$205,460. For exercise, residents ride their bikes and go water skiing, canoeing, and kayaking.
Other preferred activities include bird-watching, power boating, hunting, and attending auto
races.
Old and Newcomers-these household segments are in transition, populated by those who are
either starting their careers or retiring. The proportion of householders in their 20s or aged 75
years or older is higher than at the national level. The median age is 37 years. Spread throughout
metropolitan areas of the United States, these neighborhoods have more single-person and
shared households than families. Sixty percent of households are occupied by renters;
approximately half live in mid-rise or high-rise buildings. Top segment leisure activities include
rollerblading, playing golf, gambling at casinos, playing bingo, and attending college ball games.
Prosperous Empty Nesters- these neighborhoods are well established, located throughout the
United States; approximately one-third live on the eastern seaboard. More than half of the
householders are aged 55 or older-- the median age is 48.5 years. Forty percent of household
types are married couples with no children living at home. Educated and experienced, residents
are enjoying the life stage transition from child rearing to retirement. The median household
income is $69,834. Residents place a high value on their physical and financial well-being and
take an active interest in their homes and communities. They travel extensively, both at home
and abroad. Leisure activities include refinishing furniture, playing golf and attending sporting
events.
• Heartland Communities-- these neighborhoods can be found primarily in small towns in the
Midwest and South. More than 75 percent of the households are single-family dwellings with a
median home value of $85,240. Most homes are older, built before 1960. The median age of
this household segment is 41.7 years; nearly one-third of the householders are aged 65 years or
oPder. Top activities of this household segment include hunting, fishing, playing bingo, and
listening to country music. They also enjoy civic participation and take an interest in local politics.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 4
• Social Security Sat-- located in large cities scattered across the United States, these
communities are dispersed among business districts and around city parks. Four in ten residents
in this household segment are aged 65 years or older; the median age is 45.6 years. The
majority of these residents live alone. The service industry provides more than half of the jobs
held by residents who work--households subsist on very low, fixed incomes. Most residents
rent apartments in low-rent, high-rise buildings. Many rely on public transportation, because
more than half of these households do not own a vehicle.
• College Tovans--- education is the key focus of this household segment. College and graduate
sch~~ol enrollment is approximately 41 percent. The median age for this market is 24.4 years,
with a high concentration of 18-24-year-olds. Roughly one out of eight residents lives in a dorm
on campus. Students in off-campus housing rent low-income apartments. Approximately 31
percent of the households are town residents who live in owner-occupied, single-family
dwellings. The median home value is $152,965.
• Aspiring Young Families-these neighborhoods are located in large, growing metropolitan areas
in the South and West, with the highest concentrations in California, Florida, and Texas. Mainly
composed of young, married-couple families or single parents with children, the median age for
this segment is 30.5 years. Half of the households are owner-occupied, single-family dwellings
or townhomes, and half are occupied by renters, many living in newer, multiunit buildings. Top
leisure activities for this segment include dining out, dancing, going to the movies, attending
professional football games, fishing, weight lifting, and playing basketball.
^ Midland Cro~o+d-approximately 10.8 million people represent Midland Crowd, Community
Tapestry's largest market. The median age of 36.9 years matches the U.S. median. Most
households are composed of married-couple families-half of these families have children. The
median household income is $49,748. Housing developments are generally in rural areas
throughout the United States (more village or town than farm)-homeownership is high at 84
percent. Two-thirds of these households live in single-family structures; 28 percent live in mobile
homes.
• MidlifeJunetion-these household segments are found in suburbs across the country.
Approximately half of the households are composed of married-couple families; 31 percent are
singles who live alone. In general, these residents are phasing out of theirchild-rearing years.
The median age is 41.1 years with a median household income is $47,683. Nearly two-thirds of
households are insingle-family structures; most of the remaining dwellings are apartments in
multiunit buildings.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 5
Table 7: Dubuque County Annual Net Migration
Time Period In-flows Out-flows Net Mif~lation
1997-1998 1,283 1,730 -447
1998-1999 1,463 1,769 -306
1999-2000 1,481 1,719 -238
2000-2001 1,392 1,819 -427
2001-2002 1,446 1,649 -203
2002-2003 1,359 1,539 -180
2003-2004 1,396 1,517 -121
2004-2005 1,467 1,524 -57
2005-2006 1,604 1,573 31
2006-2007 1,735 1,665 70
A~era a
~ 1,463 1,650 -188
Source:IRS
RA
Table 8: Origin of Migrants to Dubuque County
Other
Tirr1QP /`9(~
In-Mipr3nts
1
a
5
s ~
Fo
n
8 4 4 822 1 236 47
1998-1999 1,463 553 884 1,437 26
1999-2000 1,481 546 900 1,446 35
2000-2001 1,392 508 856 1,364 28
2001-2002 1,446 508 908 1,416 30
2002-2003 1,359 528 818 1,346 13
2003-2004 1,396 511 870 1,381 15
2004-2005 1,467 560 886 1,446 21
2005-2006 1,604 602 979 1,581 23
2006-2007 1,735 596 1,102 1,698 37
CAGR 3.1% 3.7% 3.0% 3.2% -2.4%
Source: IRS, ERA
Table 9: Percent of Migrants to Dubuque County byAGl
Income 1997- 1998-
Ranf~ a 1998 1999
<$lOK 3.7% 1.8%
$10K- $20K 1.9% 0.0%
$20K-$30K 33.8% 31.1%
$30K-$40K 58.1% 60.8%
$40K-$SOK 2.5% 5.6%
$SOK+ 0.0% 0.7%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
Note: Reflects re ported flows only
Source: IRS, ERA
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0°,~0
3.0% 2.0% 2.1% 0.0% 1.4% 3.0% 0.0% 6.5%
28.9% 31.5% 24.3% 28.9% 17.9% 24.3 °,~0 14.7% 3.9°,~0
64.4% 19.6% 26.1% 26.3% 67.1% 63.8% 25.6% 30.8°io
1.8% 42.8% 44.7% 41.6% 10.5% 6.9°io 56.5% 55.0°io
1.9% 4.1% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.9%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 700.0%
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 6
Table 10: Urban versus Rural Origin of Migrants to Dubuque County
County Urban vs. Rural 1998-1999 20002001 2002-2003 2004-2005 200 )f107 Average
Clinton Rural 14 y~ 12 13 ~{ 14
Black Hawk Waterloo-Cedar Falls 83 30 36 42 31 44
Polk Des Moines 31 25 35 29 21 28
Story Ames 12 0 0 12 15 8
Johnson Iowa City 29 32 35 49 34 36
Linn Cedar Rapids 64 63 68 76 63 67
Marshall Des Moines 0 0 0 0 0 0
Clayton Rural 25 29 43 39 33 34
Jones Rural 19 20 15 10 23 17
Winneshiek Rural 10 0 0 0 0 2
Delaware Rural 54 50 46 49 57 51
Jackson Rural 67 72 75 83 101 80
Scott Davenport 41 43 43 27 43 39
Buchanan Rural 0 0 0 0 10 2
Iowa Flows Rural 189 186 191 194 232 198
Iowa Flows Urban 260 193 217 235 207 222
Maricopa, AZ Phoenix & Scottsdale 19 11 13 10 10 13
Jo Daviess, IL Rural 103 117 120 100 117 111
Rock Island, IL Davenport/Moline/Rock Island 11 0 0 0 0 2
Cook, IL Chicago 36 29 41 67 113 57
Lake, IL Chicago 10 0 0 0 0 2
Du page, IL Chicago 13 12 13 N/A 13 N/A
Whiteside, IL Rural 0 0 0 10 0 2
Winnebago, IL Rockford 0 0 0 17 13 6
Los Angeles, CA Los Angeles 0 0 0 10 0 2
San Diego, CA San Diego 0 0 10 11 10 6
Hennepin, MN Minneapolis 14 14 0 N/A N/A N/A
St. Louis, MO St. Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mihnraukee, WI Milwaukee 0 0 0 10 2
Waukesha, WI Milwaukee 0 0 0 0 10 2
Grant, WI Rural 85 81 69 88 88 82
Dane, WI Madison 26 19 21 21 25 22
Lafayette, WI Rural 0 0 0 18 0 4
Out-of-State Rural 166 196 189 216 205 199
Out-of-State Urban 129 85 98 146 194 130
Note: Only includes those migrants with known origin from within the US
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 7
Table 11: Estimated Housing Units
Jurisdiction 2001 2007 CAGR
City of Dubuque 30,139 31,349 0.7%
Dubuque County 35,946 39,187 1.4°ro
Jo Daviess County 12,140 13,265 1.5°ro
10-Counties 139,668 147,008 0.9%
Source: Dubuque City Officials, US Cens us Permit Database & ERA
Table 12: City of Dubuque Residential Building Permits by Type
Annual
Residential Segment 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Total Average Share
Single-Family 66 78 78 86 104 82 76 570 81 42.3%
Two-Family 22 34 34 38 38 32 22 220 31 16.3%
Multi-Family 21 65 70 331 14 17 39 557 80 41.4%
Total 109 177 182 455 156 131 137 1,347 192 100.0%
Source: Dubuque City Officials
Table 13: DubuqueApartmentSummary
Size (sf} Annual Rent Monthly Rent/sf
Bedrooms Low High Year Built Low High Low High
Pre-2000
1-Bedroom 585 723 $499.38 $687.50 $0.79 $1.14
2-Bedroom 828 1,065 $675 $735 $0.79 $0.80
3-Bedroom 1,232 0 $645 $0 $0.52 N/A
Post-2000
1-Bedroom N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
2-Bedroom 1,033 N/A $726 $876 $0.70 $0.86
3-Bedroom 1,200 N/A $764 $879 $0.64 $0.73
Source: Various Sources
Table 14: Estimated Housing Units: Downtown versus Metro
Jurisdiction 2000 2008 ChanJae I CAGR
Downtown Dubuaue 1.033 1.063 3 0.4%
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 8
Table 15: Urban Market Served Since 2000
~eq t Dubuf~ue Traverse Citv Des Moines Iowa Citv Madison
Downtown Housing Units Built Since 2000 3U 70 1,528 250 2,700
MSA Housing Units Built Since 2000 3,733 11,221 39,412 9,269 36,823
Downtown`s Share of New MSA Housing 0.8% 0.6% 3.9% 2.7% 7.3%
Urban-Lifestyle Households MSA-wide 13.4% 11.2% 28.0% 50.3% 39.9%
2000-2008 Growth in Urban-Lifestyle Households 395 928 9,607 4,113 11,741
Percent of Urban Market Served 7.6% 7.5% 15.9% 6.1 % 23.0%
Source: ESRI, US Census & Dubuque County Assessor
Table 16: Dubuque County Office Sector Employment
Sector 2001 2006 CAGR
Broadcasting (except Internet) 0 175 N/A
Telecommunications 0 134 N/A
Advertising, PR, Related 53 40 -5.7%
Scient'rfic Research and Development 0 0 N/A
Management, Scientific, Tech. Consulting 29 40 6.4%
Computer Programming & Systems 88 63 -6.5%
Specialized Design 48 37 -5.1%
Architecture, Engineering, Etc. 161 170 1.1%
Accounting, Bookkeeping, Etc. 260 426 10.4%
Legal Services 237 223 -1.2%
Traditional Publishing 750 750 0.0%
Medical Office -Dentists, GPs, Outpatient 2,586 2,463 -1 .U%
Real Estate 197 270 6.5%
Insurance & Related 1,127 1,274 2.5%
Securities, Commodities, Etc 114 157 6.6%
Banks/Credit Intermediation 1,048 1,051 0.1%
ISPs, web search, data 0 375 N/A
Other Professional, Scientific Services 142 154 1.6%
Total 6,840 7,800 2.7%
Source: US Census, County Business Patterns and ERA
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 9
Table 17: Dubuque County Office Sector Location Quotient
Sector 2001 2006 CAGR
Broadcasting (except Internet) N/A 1.89 N/A
Telecommunications N/A 0.30 N/A
Advertising, PR, Related 0.20 0.17 -3.4%
Scientific Research and Development 0.00 0.00 N/A
Management, Scientific, Tech. Consulting 0.06 0.08 3.3%
Computer Programming & Systems 0.20 0.15 -5.7%
Specialized Design 0.68 0.55 -4.U%
Architecture, Engineering, Etc. 0.41 0.41 0.0%
Accounting, Bookkeeping, Etc. 0.56 0.72 4.9%
Legal Services 0.52 0.43 -3.8%
Traditional Publishing 2.13 2.24 1.0%
Medical Office -Dentists, GPs, Outpatient 1.57 1.18 -5.6%
Real Estate 0.40 0.51 5.1%
Insurance & Related 0.86 0.95 2.0%
Securities, Commodities, Etc 0.25 0.30 3.0%
Banks/Credit Intermediation 0.79 0.67 -3.5%
ISPs, web search, data N/A 1.88 N/A
Other Professional, Scientific Services 0.64 0.53 -3.7%
Total 0.81 0.75 -1.6%
Source: US Census, County Business Patterns and E RA
Table 18: Dubuque County Wages by Sector
CAGR 01-
Sector 2001 2003 2006 O6
Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support $20,345 $20,991 $22,022 1.6%
Construction $38,357 $39,529 $43,148 2.4%
Manufacturing $34,016 $39,252 $41,082 3.8%
Wholesale trade $32,867 $36,059 $36,602 2.2%
Retail trade $17,641 $18,915 $19,927 2.5%
Transportation & warehousing $27,688 $32,856 $37,405 6.2%
Information $38,657 $37,683 $50,510 5.5%
Finance & insurance $32,422 $35,049 $43,124 5.9%
Real estate & rental & leasing $18,851 $23,821 $25,658 6.4%
Professional, scientific & technical services $32,847 $36,322 $42,558 5.3%
Management of companies & enterprises $42,072 $65,956 $62,629 8.3%
Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services $17,959 $21,091 $23,192 5.2%
Educational services $12,204 $15,566 $16,201 5.8%
Health care and social assistance $31,289 $33,909 $35,979 2.8%
Arts, entertainment & recreation $16,308 $17,052 $16,472 0.2%
Accommodation & food services $8,601 $9,071 $9,495 2.0%
Other services (except public administration) $15,562 $18,279 $17,683 2.6%
Auxiliaries (exec. corporate, subsidiary & regional m gt) $0 $7,800 $34,375 N/A
Total $25.621 $28.352 $31.212 4.0%
Source: US Census, County Business Patterns
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 10
Table 19: Share of Dubuque County Employment by Industry Sector
Sector
Forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Transportation & warehousing
Information
Finance & insurance _
Peal estate & rental & leasing
Professional, scientific & technical services '
Management of companies & enterprises
Admin, support, waste mgt, remediation services
Educational services
Health care and social assistance
Arts, entertainment & recreation
Accommodation & food services
Crther services (except public administration)
Auxiliaries (exec. corporate, subsidiary & regional mgt)
Total
2001 2003 2006 CAGR 01-06
3
6% 3
8% 3
9% 1
3%
.
21.5°i° .
193°,~0 .
I
19.0°,%° .
-25°,%°
4.7 °.~0 4.6°io 4.8°~0 0.5°.!0
13.9°'0 13.5°,0 13.0% 1.3°b
2.0°,%° 3.4°, 0 4.0% 15.1 °,/o
4
7% 5
1% 4
8% 0
4%
.
2.1% .
2.1% .
2.3% .
1.5% '
0.5%
4.2°6 0.5%
3.4°6 2.2%
3.7°'0 35.6%
2.7°%°
6.7°,~0 5.4°,%0 5.4°io -4.3 °,~°
13.4% 14.5% 13.8% 0.6%
3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 2.1%
8.0% 8.9% 8.6% 1.4%
5.5% 5.4% 6.2% 2.3%
0.4% 0.0% 0.0% -33.5%
100.0% 100.0% 100.0% . 0.0%
Source: US Census, County Business Patterns
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 11
Figure 1: Urban Housing Gap
Madison
low a City
~s Moines
Traverse Qty
Dubuque _
^ %Urban-Lifestyle Households MSA-
w ide
^ Dow ntow n's Share of New MSA
Housing
0% 10% 209'0 ~0°,6 40% 50% 60%
Figure 2: Age of Metro versus Downtown Housing
Madison
low a Ciry
Des Moines
Traverse Ciry
Dubuque
Median Year Housing Built--MSA
~ Median Year Housing Built--Downtown
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1980 1970 1980 1990
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 12
Figure 3: Educational Attainment Point Shift 1990-2006
100%
50%
Less than High School
0 0'io High school graduate
'uque rva 18 (includes equivalency)
_.~nty ^ Some College
-. Associate's or Bachelor's
-~' ~ % Oegree
^Graduate or professional
degree
-100%
-150%
Source: US Census and EPiA
Figure 4: City Population by Age Cohort
1s.o%
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Age 0-4 5-9 10- 15- 25- 35- 45- 55- 65- 75-
14 24 34 44 54 64 74 84
Source: ESRI
2000
^ 2007
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 13
Figure 5: Distribution of Families by Type
Relati--ely Fewer Families With Kids
Percent distribution of HHs by type: 1990 and 2010 (projected}
Families wf children
~.0
Male householder 2.6%
1 .7%
I.6%
Female rl°,o
householder ~ ~ E°/n
r
2G ~%
Married couple °,
2G7i°
Q 1'?'°
Families w!o children
O Dubuque 1990
1 °ro
~ - ^ Dubuque 2010
Other "
,
r' u'0 O US 1990
S.3%
~~ US 2010
29 4
~i.3%
Married couple ~ ~%
~1
5%
.
Nonfamily
a ;~„~
Other ~~~~~
5 3%
Source: US Census and ERA
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 14
Figure 6: 2007 Percent of Households by Income
$299,999+
$150,000-$lsssss
$loo00o-$14ssss
$75,000 - $99,999
$SO,ooo - $74,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$15,000 - $24,999
X15,000
o.o%
Source: ESRI
10.Caunties
6 Jo Da•.%iess County
Dubuque County
^City of Dubuque
5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.9% 30.0%
Figure 7: City of Dubuque Pull Factors by Retail Type
2.0
1 .8
1 .6
14
1 .2
1.0
0.8
O.L'
04
0.2
0.0
~ m~ec~2 o°~c ~~0~5 ~a.~ ~ ~o~e5 ~`~e5~ es~~ ~~~ ~oA" ,~o~
e`' a0 eFr ~ ° PQ ~d,~
~.o der ~ F
~J ~S ~~`~e~' y~~ ~o~e
c~
Source: Iowa Department of Revenue
^ 2000
2007
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 15
Figure 8: Dubuque Housing by Year of Construction
120.0°!°
100.0°!0
80.0°!0
60.0°!0
4Q0~'~
20.0°!°
o in o o m o
O N ~ (O °J Q~ p
O O Q~ O Q~ Q~ p
N
d r (O ~ N r N
a O
Ql N
Ql ~ (O °J
~ Ql Ql ~
a
Figure 9: Dubuque Housing by Assessed Value
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0% ~ .
.
. .
.
~
r
s
O y
~
N O ~
O ~
O ~
O ~
O ~
O +
~ I+ O
E,9 ~ O
N N
N O
M O
~ O
O
V ~ ~ ~ E A 69 69 69 Q
v3 ~ N N m
<» ss En ss
Source: Dubuque Couniy Assessor
^ °6. Horses by Y ear Built
96 ~~ndos by Year Built
^ % Horres by Assessed Value
~ % CAndos by Assessed Value
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 16
Figure 10: Dubuque Housing Assessed Value per Square Foot
so o°,s
so o°,s
ao o°r°
30.0% ^ % Homes 6y Assessed Valuefsf
^ % Condos by A ssessed Valueisf
20.0%
10.0 °,b
0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0
~ v r o 0
v <a u> <a ~ ~
n
w v ~
<»
F» <a u>
Source: Dubuque County Assessor
Figure 11: Relationship between Total Home Value and Total Living Space {square feet}
$x,000,000- Type of Housing Unit
_:~ ConUOminI0n1
Single Family Home
- ---COnUominium
- Single Family Home
$800,000-
~° o
Gp
d $600,000' O
3 8
A
~ 00
o O O
~ $400,000- ~- ap
c rz_T~ O O
$200,000' ®^~ O
O
$0-
0 1,000 2.000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Total Living Spaee
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 17
Figure 12: Percent of Office Sector Establishments by Size
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0%
0.0%
'1-4' '5-9' '10-19' '20.49' '50.99' '100-249' 250+
Source: County Business Patterns
^ 2001
2003
^ 2006
Figure 13: Growth in Office Est. by Size (2001-2006)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1 .5%
1 .0%
0.5
0.0
'1 ~' '5-9' '10-19' '209' '50-99' '100-249' 250+
Source: County Business Pattern
^ CPGR
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 18
Case Studies
Warehouse Qistrrct-Cleveland, Ohio
Cleveland's Warehouse District encompasses 43 acres bound by Front Street to the north, Superior
Avenue to the south, West 3rd Street to the east, and 10th Street to the west. The area was
originally settled as a residential community, although transitioned to become Cleveland's primary
commercial center following the Civil War-- several prominent buildings remain from this era. In
1982, the district was designated a National Historic Landmark and has since transformed into a
vibrant neighborhood of art galleries, restaurants, offices, specialty retail, and loft-style housing. The
Warehouse District presently includes some 1,700 residential units, a mix of 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms;
2,700 square feet of retail; and 1.3 million square feet of office uses.
Warehouse District redevelopment began in the 1970s, beginning with renovation of the Western
Reserve Building by a local department store company. Shortly thereafter, the Cleveland Landmarks
Commission developed a Comprehensive Plan for the Warehouse District and in 1980, the Historic
Warehouse District Development Corporation (HWDDC) was born. HWDDC is a local nonprofit
comprised of downtown business interests and architects. One of HWDDC's fist projects in 1982
was to have the neighborhood declared a local Landmark District. This was followed soon after by
National Register Historic District designation by the US Secretary of the Interior. Throughout the
1980s, redevelopment activities in the Warehouse District accelerated. In response, the Cleveland
Landmarks Commission adopted the "Historic Warehouse District Plan Concepts and Design
Guidelines", a framework for encouraging adaptive reuse and establishing design review standards.
Although redevelopment of Cleveland's Warehouse Districtwas initiated by the private sector, the
City has been an active supporter through financing and administrative measures. ERA has outlined
below some of the steps taken by the City to facilitate Warehouse District redevelopment:
Financed and managed Local Historic District planning efforts-this ultimately made
redevelopment activities eligible for Historic Tax Credits. It also allowed for greater control over
redevelopment through a design review process;
Undertook initial streetscape enhancements;
Established an Economic Restructuring Plan to allow residential uses on upper floors of
Warehouse District structures;
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 19
Provided gap financing to match private sector investment (about $15-$20,000 per unit). Gap
financing is now the responsibility of a civic non-profit committed to downtown housing
development;
• Adopted business assistance programs related to storefront renovation.
Bonds, grants (Urban Development Action Grant (UDAG); Community Development Block Grants
and Historic Tax Credits have been the primary financing mechanisms for Warehouse District
redevelopment. HUD 221 (D) 4 loans have also helped finance the development of multifamily
rentals. According to the Warehouse District Development Corporation, investment in the
Warehouse District over the past thirty years has totaled roughly $450 million-10 to 15% of this
has been from the public sector. Between 1982 and 2005, aggregate property value within
Cleveland's Warehouse District increased from $152 million to $418 million.
Schlitz Park-Milwaukee, lMsconsrn
Schlitz Park is a 40-acre office park, an adaptive reuse of the Schlitz Brewery complex located in
downtown Milwaukee. Sited along the Milwaukee River, the 1 10-year old brewery complex
comprised 13 buildings ranging from grain silos to administrative buildings built between 1860 and
1950--the entire complex contained some 2.3 million square feet of space. Following
redevelopment, the complex contains nearly 1.5 million square feet of space, 75% of which is office
space. Another 12% is warehousing and retail space, with the remaining 13% dedicated to
educational uses.
Redevelopment of the abandoned complex began with its purchase in 1983 by Brewery Works, a
developer initially attracted by the site's riverfront location. Renovation began a year later and was
phased over a period of roughly seven years on a building by building basis- Brewery Works would
identify an individual building and renovate it to degree that a tenant could be secured. Upon
securing a tenant through along-term lease, renovations were then completed to suit the needs of
that specific tenant. The entire project was completed in 1994.
The public sector also played an integral role in Schlitz Park redevelopment through financing,
targeted infrastructure improvements, as well as through collaboration with the developer on the
Riverwalk project. In particular, the City supported redevelopment efforts in the following ways:
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 20
• Funded half of the $750,000 Rivenvalk, aquarter-mile boardwalk/park along the Schlitz Park site.
The other half of the Riverwalk was funded by Brewery Works.
• Established Tax Increment Finance Districts to fund infrastructure and other improvements.
• Provided a series of subordinated loans to the developer-- loans were structured so payments
were deferred until the office buildings were leased.
• I n recent years, the City provided grants and loans to the new Manpower headquarters located
adjacent to Schlitz Park, as well as built a new parking ramp for the development.
Financing of Schlitz Park was a combination of public and private sources. According to the Urban
Land Institute, developer equity in the project was roughly $4.2 million. TIF loans, grants, industrial
revenue bonds, first mortgages and other funds comprised another $82.3 million. City officials report
that the Schlitz Park TI F over its eleven year life achieved an incremental value of $37.52 million. The
adjacent Schlitz RiverCenterTlF achieved an incremental value of $32,500,000.
Old Market-Omaha, Nebraska
Old Market is a renovated, 15-block warehouse district on the edge of downtown Omaha. The
district is bound by the Missouri River to the east; Dodge Street to the north; Levinworth Street to
the west; and 13th Street to the south. Within the greater warehousing district is a 4-block historic
district on the National Register. According to the local business association, Old Market is presently
location to 30 restaurants, 13 pubs & taverns, 10 art galleries, 6 coffee shops, in addition to salons
and specialty retail. Old Market is also the site of year-round events and activities including farmers'
markets, music and firework displays.
Redevelopment of the Old Market began in the late 1960's, a movement started by a local family
that owned several area properties. Their vision for the area was to create a local artist's colony-
redevelopmentefforts began with corn~ersions of their existing warehouses into artist lofts and
galleries. In the early years of redevelopment, financial support by the City was minimal. However,
the Planning Director at the time showed support for redevelopment through 17 building and zoning
amendments; 2) targeted business recruitment; and 37 development of local plans to complement
the family's vision.
Over the next forty years, the City of Omaha became more engaged in Old Market redevelopment
through the establishment of Tax Increment Finance Districts, and City-sponsored surveys to
designate the Old Market as a local historic district. Most importantly, however, the City has
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 21
sponsored several major projects surrounding Old Market that have been catalysts for district
redevelopment:
Construction of the Gene Leahy Mall-a 9.Gacre urban park adjacent to the Old Market featuring
a lagoon, walking paths, playgrounds and horseshoe pits. This project required public acquisition
and demolition of several acres of vacant, older buildings.
Construction of Heartland of America Park, a 31-acre lakefront park that connects the Gene
Leahy Mall to the riverfront. Heartland of America Park features fountains, live concerts and
gondola rides.
Renovation of the Union Station building into the Durham Western Heritage Museum. This Art
Deco structure located just south of Old Market was donated to the City by the U nion Pacific
Railroad in 1973. The building is listed on the National Register, and is also a designated an
Omaha Landmark.
Qld Town-Wichita, Kansas
Old Town is aturn-of-the-century warehousing district located in downtown Wichita. The district
comprises an area of roughly 40 acres bound to the south by Douglas Avenue, 3rd Street to the north,
Washington Avenue to the east, and an elevated rail corridor to the west. The district currently
comprises a mix of locally-owned retail, bars, restaurants, movie theaters, live-performance venues,
offices, two hotels and 315 homes. Old Town also contains two large public plazas that host regular
events, festivals, and concerts.
Redevelopment of this worn warehousing area into a thriving arts, entertainment and residential
district has been a combined effort of the public and private sectors. Beginning in the 1970s, a
movement amongst community leaders and citizens, including the Old Town Association, began
advocating for district redevelopment-- several plans were developed as a combined effort of the
City, key stakeholders and community members. However, in 1990, the discovery of polluted
groundwater brought Old Town redevelopment efforts to a standstill. I n an effort to stimulate
redevelopment, the City took the lead in site remediation, relieving property owners of this financial
burden. Additional public sector activities key to redevelopment have included:
• Preparation of a detailed implementation plan for the establishment of a redevelopment district;
• Establishment of an Old Town Parking District and two Tax Increment Finance Districts to secure
funding for public infrastructure improvements;
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 22
• Establishment of financial incentives to assist building owners with rehabilitation;
• Creation of overlay zoning districts to facilitate area mixed-use development;
• Public acquisition and redevelopment of a three-story warehouse in the center of Old Town in
partnership with a local developer-this project served as a catalyst for further Old Town
redevelopment.
• A $4 million contribution to implement physical improvements including pedestrian-level lighting,
new parking facilities, roadway surface improvements and the rehabilitation of an existing
building to house a farmer's market.
The public sector's role in Old Town continues to be the construction and maintenance of
infrastructure in the district- all parking has been constructed by the City and is free. The Parking
District is funded by local property owners through a monthly fee to the district based upon their
individual parking needs. Maintenance of landscaping, hardscaping as well as cleaning and repair of
public infrastructure is the responsibility of the City of Wichita.
Tax Increment Financing has been critical to Old Town redevelopment efforts. According to city
documents, total public investment in Old Town between 1993 and 2008 in the form of TIF bonds,
general obligation bonds, special assessments, and other public funds has totaled roughly $40
million. Estimates by the City place property value increments in Old Town during this time at$65
million.
Economics Research Associates Project No. 17886 Page 23