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City of Dubuque GHG Inventory FINALj AL1 t - 4 4 , \ 1 Li Prepared by: THE CTTY OF Dubuque, Iowa Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2010 DUB Masterpiece on flit- Mi;ssissippi In association with: ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability A CKNOWLEDGMENTS Dubuque City Council Roy D. Buol, Mayor Karla Braig Joyce Connors Ric Jones Kevin Lynch David Resnick Dirk Voetberg Barry Lindahl, City Attorney Jeanne Schneider, City Clerk Michael Van Milligen, City Manager Thank youto the following City staff and community partners who were primarily involved inthe creation of this inventory: City of Dubuque Staff Cori Burbach, Sustainable Community Coordinator Paul Schultz, Resource Manager Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager Ken Tekippe, Finance Director Kelsey McElroy, Planning Intern Sheila Samuelson, Former Sustainable Community Coordinator City of Dubuque Management Team Community Partners Craig Clefisch, Alliant Energy Mark Ernst, Black Hills Energy Chandra Ravada, East Central Intergovernmental Association Candace Eudaley, East Central Intergovernmental Association Xico Manarolla, ICLEI Program Officer Brita Pagels, ICLEI Program Officer Special thanks to following individuals who collected and analyzed data and authoredthe City of Dubuque Greenhouse Gas Inventory in an effort to further the achievement of the Sustainable Dubuque vision: Theothoros Giannakouros Jason Schatz i ES XECUTIVE UMMARY B ACKGROUND Since 2006, the Dubuque City Council has identified becoming a designated Green Community as one of their top goals. In order to achieve this, Dubuque has adopted a holistic, three part approach to sustainability that focuses on Environmental & Ecological Integrity, Economic Prosperity, and Social & Cultural Vibrancy. As part of its vision for a sustainable future, the City has partnered with ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability. As an ICLEI member, the City of Dubuque is committed to achieving ICLEI's Five Milestones for Climate Protection: 1.Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts for both municipal activities and the community as a whole 2.Adopt an emissions reduction target 3.Develop a Local Climate Action Plan 4.Implement policies and measures 5.Monitor and verify results In order toachieve the first milestone, the City of Dubuque has completed a greenhouse gas inventory for 2003 and 2007 for, 1) Municipal government operations, and 2) Emissions for the Dubuque community as a whole. This inventory was created to assist City Council and staff in their planning and policy efforts as well as to inform and assist Dubuque citizens in leading sustainable lifestyles. In addition to mitigating climate change, initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions could have numerous economic, social, and environmental benefits for Dubuque, including invigorating the local economy; lowering energy consumption and utility bills; creating safer and more efficient transportation networks; increasing home resale values, attracting residents, visitors, and businesses to the city; improving air and water quality; improving waste management; improving health and safety; enhancing community connectivity and engagement; and enhancing natural beauty and aesthetics. M ETHODOLOGY The methods used to generate this inventory were consistent with ICLEI's Local Government Operations Protocol (v. 1.0). Data were compiled and analyzed using ICLEI's Clean Air and Climate Protection (CACP) software (CACP2009 v2.1). This inventory assessed the emissions of the six internationally recognized greenhouse gases regulated under the Kyoto Protocol: Sulfur hexafluoride (SF) Carbon dioxide (CO) 6 2 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Methane (CH) 4 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Nitrous oxide (NO) 2 ii Greenhouse gas emissions from Dubuque municipal government operations were inventoried for both a baseline year (2003) and interim year (2007), which were the earliest and latest years, respectively, for which complete data were available. Data for the local government inventory was collected from various City departments, government institutions, and utilities. Several criteria air pollutants (CAPs) regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act were also estimated for municipal government activities. Finally, emissions forecasts for municipal government operations from 2007 to 2050 were derived from measured emissions trends from 2003 to 2007. R&D ESULTS ISCUSSION Dubuque municipal government operations generated 80,084 and 86,080 tonnes COe 2 in 2003 and 2007, respectively (Table ES1). In both years, fugitive methane emissions from 2 the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA) landfill constituted over / 3 of the total. Carbon dioxide accounted for the bulk of remaining emissions (TableES1). In 2003, water delivery (11%), wastewater treatment (7%), city buildings & facilities (6%), city fleet vehicles (3%), streetlights & traffic signals (2%), refrigerants (1%), airport operations (1%), buses & public transit (1%), and employee commuting (<1%) accounted for the remainder of emissions. In 2007, water delivery (8%), wastewater treatment (8%), city buildings & facilities (5%) city fleet vehicles (3%), streetlights & traffic signals (2%), refrigerants (1%), airport operations (1%), buses &public transit (1%), and employee commuting (<1%) accounted for the remainder of total emissions (Table ES1). Table ES1. Total greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes of total emissions iii Based on 2003 to 2007 trends, Dubuque municipal government emissions will be 90,577 tonnes COe in 2010, an increase of 13% over 2003 emissions (Fig. ES1). If those 2 trends continue, City operations will emit 98,072 tonnes in 2015, 113,062 tonnes in 2025, and 150,537 tonnes in 2050, which would represent an 88% increase over 2003 levels. Figure ES1. Projected future greenhouse gas emissions trends from 2007 to 2050 for Dubuque municipal government operations under current trends (business as usual). 2003 levels are included for comparison. CAP RITERIA IR OLLUTANTS Criteria air pollutants are common air pollutants regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act. These pollutants can threaten human and environmental health, cause property damage, and impair ecosystem services. Emissions of each pollutant in Dubuque is estimated to have decreased slightly from 2003 to 2007, which follows national air quality improvements resulting largely from advances in industrial and emissions technologies. NS EXT TEPS The third milestone in ICLEI's climate protection strategy is the development of a local ClimateAction Plan. Dubuque's Climate Action Plan will detail concrete steps by which Dubuque City government operations can reach their greenhouse gas emission targets. ICLEI recommends that a city's action plan combines measures that are already in place as well as proposed measures that will fulfill the remainder of its reduction goals. Implementation strategies will also be discussed, including costs, funding sources, time frames, and economic, environmental, and social benefits. Strategies will be modeled on measures taken by other communities, recommendations by ICLEI, and innovative solutions uniquely suited to Dubuque.Early indicators suggest that the City of Dubuque's proactive approach to sustainability will allow for a relatively ambitious GHG reduction strategy. iv TC ABLE OF ONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS............................................................................................................ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.........................................................................................................iii LIST OF TABLES.......................................................................................................................ix LIST OF FIGURES......................................................................................................................x 1. Sustainability in Dubuque.........................................................................................................1 1.1. Background................................................................................................................1 1.2. Partnerships................................................................................................................2 2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory......................................................................................3 2.1. Dubuque's Partnership with ICLEI............................................................................3 2.2. Benefits for Dubuque.................................................................................................4 2.2.1. Economic Prosperity...................................................................................4 2.2.2. Environmental & Ecological Integrity........................................................5 2.2.3. Social & Cultural Vibrancy.........................................................................6 2.3. Methods.....................................................................................................................7 2.4. Results and Discussion..........................................................................................................9 2.4.1. Base Year Emissions: 2003.........................................................................9 2.4.2. Interval Year Emissions: 2007..................................................................12 2.4.3. Comparing 2003 and 2007 Emissions......................................................12 2.4.4. Projected Future Emissions.......................................................................14 3. Criteria Air Pollutants.............................................................................................................15 3.1. Introduction..............................................................................................................15 3.2. Criteria Air Pollutant Emissions in Dubuque..........................................................15 4. Next Steps...............................................................................................................................17 4.1. Introduction..............................................................................................................17 4.1. Setting Reduction Targets........................................................................................17 4.2. Developing a Climate Action Plan..........................................................................18 5. Global Climate Change...........................................................................................................19 5.1. The Greenhouse Effect............................................................................................19 5.2. Current Climate Change..........................................................................................20 5.3. Global Consequences of Climate Change...............................................................20 5.4. Climate Change in the Midwest..............................................................................22 5.4.1. Temperature..............................................................................................22 5.4.2. Precipitation..............................................................................................23 5.5. Mitigation................................................................................................................23 APPENDIX A –Data Sources....................................................................................................24 APPENDIX B –Notes and Assumptions...................................................................................26 APPENDIX C –City of Dubuque Profile..................................................................................28 APPENDIX D –Credits and Citations.......................................................................................29 APPENDIX E –Emissions by Scope.........................................................................................30 v LT IST OF ABLES Table 1. 11 key principles for creating a sustainable community identified by Dubuque citizens....................................................................................................1 Table 2.Global warming potentials of six major greenhouse gases.........................................9 Table 3A.CO, NO, and CHemissions from various sectors of municipal 224 government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes of total emissions......................................................................10 Table 3B.CO, NO, and CHemissions from various sectors of municipal 224 government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed intonnes COe..........................................................................................10 2 Table 4. Sources, characteristics, and impacts to human health and the environment of criteria air pollutants inventoried for Dubuque, Iowa15 Table 5.Criteria air pollutant emissions in 2003 and 2007 from various sectors of Dubuque's municipal government operations...........................................16 Table 6.COreduction targets of sample ICLEI communities...............................................17 2 Table 7. Some predicted impacts of climate change detailed by the IPCC Assessment Report IV...............................................................................................21 Table E1.Greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors of Dubuque municipal government operations in 2003 and 2007 reported by scope..........................................................................................................................30 vi LF IST OF IGURES Figure 1A-D.Percent of total municipal government greenhouse gas emissions contributed by each sector in 2003 and 2007......................................................11 Figure 2. Average percent annual change in emissions from 2003 to 2007 in various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque.................13 Figure 3. Projected future greenhouse gas emissions trends from 2007 to 2050 for Dubuque municipal governmentoperations under current trends.................14 Figure 4. Hypothetical estimates of greenhouse gas emission trajectories from 2003-2050 based on business as usual, 2003 levels, and emissions reductions due to implementing methane capture at the DMASWA landfilland renovations of the water pollution control plant..............................18 Figure 5. The greenhouse effect..........................................................................................19 Figure 6. Predicted changes to Illinois summer temperature and precipitation.................22 . Figure 7. Predicted increases in temperature in Iowa by mid-century and the end of the century in a high emissions scenario and a low emissions scenario................................................................................................................22 Figure 8. Predicted seasonal percent change in precipitation by the end of the century (2080-2099) for Iowa under high and low emissions scenarios.............23 Figure E1. Visual representation of scopes...........................................................................30 vii 1. SD USTAINABILITY IN UBUQUE 1.1.B ACKGROUND Since 2006, the Dubuque City Council has identified becoming a designated Green Community as one of their top goals. In order to achieve this, Dubuque has adopted a holistic, three part approach to sustainability that focuses on Environmental & Ecological Integrity, Economic Prosperity, and Social & Cultural Vibrancy. Under those three domains of sustainability, Dubuque citizens have identified 11 key principles for creating a sustainable community (Table 1). Environmental issues are often global in scope, but the actions necessary to meet those challenges will ultimately be taken at the local level by communities and individuals. Local grassroots efforts are absolutely necessary to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. Dubuque has embraced this principle through several community engagement initiatives, including a citizen sustainability task Dubuque 2.0 force and , which encourages public/private partnerships to shape our community's sustainable future. Table 1. 11 key principles for creating a sustainable community identified by Dubuque citizens. 1 1.2.P ARTNERSHIPS As part of its vision for a sustainable future, the City of Dubuque has established partnerships with leading local, national, and international organizations committed to facilitating local sustainability efforts, including: Climate Communities , a national coalition of local governments created to leverage federal policy and funding for local initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emission and promoting sustainable, self reliant communities. ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability , an international association of local governments as well as national and regional local government organizations that have made a commitment to sustainable development. The Mayor's Climate Protection Agreement , through which hundreds of mayorsfrom cities across the country committed to efforts to meet or exceed the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. Dubuque 2.0 , a local initiative that facilitates public/private partnerships between local businesses, non-profits, and government organizations and recognizes their importance in achieving a sustainable community. Downtown Dubuque and the Mississippi River. 2 2 GGE REENHOUSEAS MISSIONS I NVENTORY 2.1.D'PICLEI UBUQUESARTNERSHIP WITH This inventory was created to assist City Council and staff intheir planning and policy efforts as well as to inform and assist Dubuque citizens in leading sustainable lifestyles. In order to guide its sustainability efforts, in 2007 Dubuque became a member of ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability. ICLEI is an international organization of local governments committed to climate protection and environmental sustainability. ICLEI was established in 1990 and has grown to include over 1,000 cities across the world, including over 550 in the United States. ICLEI provides guidelines, tools, and technical support to facilitate local governmental efforts to achieve strong climate protection goals and create cleaner, healthier, economically viable communities. In 2005 alone, ICLEI reported helping local governments reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 23 million tons and saving about $600 million in annual cumulative savings, largely on energy expenditures. This report achieves the first of ICLEI's Five Dubuque Town Clock Milestones for Climate Protection to which the city has committed: 1.Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts for both municipal activities and the community as a whole 2.Adopt an emissions reduction target 3.Develop a local climate action plan 4.Implement policies and measures 5.Monitor and verify results Milestones two and three will be achieved in a forthcoming report on emissions reduction targets and strategies for the City of Dubuque. Based on those goals and strategies, the fourth and fifth milestones will be ongoing efforts within Dubuque's comprehensive framework for achieving a more sustainable community. 3 2.2.BD ENEFITS FOR UBUQUE In addition to contributing to global environmental solutions, the steps Dubuque takes to mitigate climate change will have numerous local benefits by contributing to Dubuque's Economic Prosperity, Environmental & Ecological Integrity, and Social & Cultural Vibrancy. 2.2.1. Economic Prosperity Development of local, independent energy sources creates local jobs and keeps dollars circulating locally. Emphasis on the local economy(e.g. buying local goods, manufacturing from local secondary/recycled materials) keeps dollars circulating in the community and improves local economic resiliency. Improved energy efficiencyreduces government operation costs and reduces utility bills for residents. Improved fuel efficiency and decreased driving miles reduce fuel and vehicle maintenance costs. Improved transportation networks and accessibility will allow more people to reach employment, commerce, and recreation opportunities. This can increase increase local commerce, improve commuter safety, reduce worker absenteeism, and expand the labor pool, particularly with people who cannot drive or afford personal vehicles. Makes Dubuque more attractive to visitors, prospective college students, and other potential Dubuque residents. Increased home resale valuesassociated with developing the City's transportation infrastructure, operations, aesthetics, andcultural vibrancy. Getting a head start on GHG emission reductionsby documenting early actions to reduce GHG emissions, which may be accepted by future regulatory programs. 4 2.2.2. Environmental & Ecological Integrity Cleaner air, water, and soilresulting from decreased local and regional vehicle and power plant emissions. Motor vehicles are the largest source of urban air pollution. In addition to CO, 2 cars emit many harmful air pollutants. Emissions from U.S. motor vehicles are estimated to cause 40,000 premature deaths and 20,000-46,000 cases of chronic respiratory illness per year. Particulate matter and other air pollutants from vehicle and power plant emissions also degrade soil and water quality. So, reducing COemissions 2 also improvesthe quality of our air, water, and soil. Reduced flood and drought riskas climate impacts are reduced. Development of local green space and healthy ecosystemswill increase biodiversity and provide various ecosystem services, including improved soil and water quality, carbon sequestration, reduced albedo, decreased urban heat island effect, aesthetic benefits, and improved recreational opportunities for residents and visitors. Waste minimization by recycling, composting, and other strategies will improve soil and water quality, stimulate local economic activity, and reduce local and upstream generation of carbon and other waste products. 5 2.2.3. Social & Cultural Vibrancy Development of a full suite of safe, convenient, and affordable transportation options. Reduced traffic congestion, which improves neighborhood livability, commute times, safetyof motorists and pedestrians, and saves on fuel and vehicle maintenance costs. Improved health and safetythrough cleaner air, safer roads for cyclists, Dubuque Arboretum & Botanical Gardens pedestrians & motorists, and promoting healthier forms of transportation (e.g. walking and bicycling). Improved beauty and natural aesthetics, which studies have consistently associated with improved physical and emotional health and wellness. Provides sense of community purpose and engagement, social connections, and satisfactionthrough community service opportunities, community connectivity, and increased opportunities for local recreation and cultural experiences. Showcases Dubuque's commitment to environmental, cultural, and economic sustainabilityas well is its engagement with important local and global issues. Dubuque Farmers Market 6 2.3.M ETHODS The methods used to generate this inventory were consistent with ICLEI's Local Government Operations Protocol (v. 1.0). Data were compiled and analyzed using ICLEI's Clean Air and Climate Protection (CACP) software (CACP2009 v2.1). This inventory assesses the emissions of the six internationally recognized greenhouse gases regulated under the Kyoto Protocol: Sulfur hexafluoride (SF) Carbon dioxide (CO) 6 2 Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Methane (CH) 4 Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Nitrous oxide (NO) 2 In order to account for direct and indirect emissions, improve transparency, and facilitate local climate actions, ICLEI requires reporting emissions by “scope.” Together, the three scopes provide a comprehensive accounting framework for managing and reducing direct and indirect emissions. Appendix E contains emission data classified by scope. Scope 1: All direct GHG emissions, except for direct biogenic COemissions. 2 Scope 2: Indirect GHG emissions associated with the consumption of purchased or acquired electricity, steam, heating, or cooling. Scope 3: All other indirect emissions not covered in Scope 2, such as emissions resulting from the extraction and production of purchased materials and fuels, transport related activities in vehicles not owned or controlled by the reporting entity (e.g. employee commuting and business travel), outsourced activities, or waste disposal. Greenhouse gas emissions were inventoried for both a baseline and interim year. ICLEI suggests selecting the earliest possible baseline year in order to assess recent emissions trends and account for the emissions benefits of recent actions; 2003 was selected as the earliest year for which complete records were readily available. The interim year is a recent year that is used to assess both recent emissions trends and as a performance datum for future inventories; 2007 was selected as the most recent year for which complete records were available. This inventory accounts for greenhouse gas emissions from the following sectors of Dubuque's municipal government operations, including: Buildings and other facilitiesSolid waste facilities (landfill) Streetlights & traffic signalsEmployee commute Water delivery Other processes and fugitive emissions Wastewater facilitiesPort facilities (N/A for Dubuque) Airport facilitiesPower generation facilities (N/A for Dubuque) Public transit City vehicle fleet Building and facility emissions included direct emissions and energy consumption associated with heating, cooling, and daily operations within city office space, police and fire stations, recreation and cultural facilities, city warehouses and storage facilities, and other facilities under city control. 7 Data were collected from various City departments, local governmental and intergovernmental institutions, and utilities. Data sources are listed in Appendix A. Notes and assumptions used to complete the inventory are detailed in Appendix B. Criteria Air Pollutants Several criteria air pollutants (CAPs) regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act were also estimated in this report. Nitrogen oxides (NO), sulfur oxides (SO), volatile organic xx compounds (VOCs), particulate matter (PM) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were 10 estimated using ICLEI's CACP2009 software as well as EPA data detailing direct CAP emissions from various local facilities and industries, including Alliant Energy's Dubuque Generating Station power plant. Emissions Forecasts Emissions forecasts for municipal government operations were derived from emissions trends between 2003 and 2007. 8 2.4.RD ESULTS AND ISCUSSION 2.4.1. Base Year Emissions: 2003 All Sectors Government operations for the GWP and COe 2 City of Dubuque accounted for 80,084 tonnes COe in 2003 (Tables 3A-B). 2 Global warming potential (GWP) and CO The greatest contribution came from 2 equivalents (COe) are two related ways of expressing methane (68%) and carbon dioxide 2 the warming potential of a greenhouse gas. GWP is (31%), with smaller contributions the amount of warming caused by a greenhouse gas from HFC & PFC refrigerants, NO, 2 relative to the amount caused by CO. COe represents and SF(<1% apiece). 22 6 the amount of COthat would cause the same amount Virtually all methane 2 of warming as a given amount and type of another originated from fugitive emissions greenhouse gas (Table 2). For example, methane from the 50% fraction of (CH) has 21 times the global warming potential as biodegradable/compostable materials 4 COso 1 tonne CHis equal to 21 tonnes COe. buried at the landfill. The landfill is 2,42 operated by the Dubuque Area Metropolitan Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA), which is an intergovernmental entity directed jointly by two representatives from the City of Dubuque and one representative from Dubuque County. DMASWA serves over 100,000 customers in Dubuque and Delaware counties (Iowa) and some of Grant (Wisconsin) and Jo Daviess (Illinois) counties and accounted for 68% of city government emissions (Fig 1A, C). For sectors other than the landfill, COaccounted for the bulk of emissions. After the landfill, water delivery (11%) and 2 wastewater treatment (7%) accounted for the next highest proportion of city government emissions, followed by energy consumed by city buildings (6%) and fuel consumed by city fleet vehicles (3%). Refrigerants (2%), streetlights & traffic signals (2%), airport operations (1%), and fuel consumed by public transit (1%) & employee commuting (<1%) accounted for smaller proportions of emissions (Tables 3A-B, Fig. 1A,C). Non-landfill Sectors: The relative contribution of non-landfill sectors is clearer when examined separately from landfill emissions. In the absence of landfill methane, water delivery and wastewater treatment accounted for 34% and 22%, respectively, of remaining emissions. Energy consumed by city buildings (20%) and fuel consumed by city fleet vehicles (9%) also contributed significantly. Streetlights & traffic signals (5%), public transit (4%), airport operations (2%), 9 employee commuting (2%), and refrigerants (2%) accounted for smaller proportions of 2003 emissions (Fig. 1A,C). 9 10 2.4.2. Interval Year Emissions: 2007 All Sectors: Local government operations for the City of Dubuque generated 86,080 tonnes COe in 2 2007. The greatest contribution came from methane (69%) and carbon dioxide (30%), with smaller contributions from NO, SF, and HFC & PFC refrigerants (<1% apiece) (Table 3A-B). 26 As in 2003, virtually all methane emissions originated from anaerobic decomposition processes at the DMASWA landfill facility, which accounted for 69% of city government emissions. (Fig. 1B,D) For sectors other thanthe landfill, COaccounted for the bulk of emissions. After the 2 landfill, water delivery (8%) and wastewater treatment (8%) account for the next highest proportion of government emissions, followed by energy consumed by city buildings (5%) and fuel consumed by city fleet vehicles (3%). Streetlights & traffic signals (2%), airport operations (1%), refrigerants (1%), and fuel consumed by public transit (1%) & employee commuting (<1%) accounted for smaller proportions of total emissions (Fig. 1B,D). Non-landfill Sectors: The relative contribution of non-landfill sectors is clearer when examined separately from landfill emissions. In the absence of landfill methane, water delivery (27%), wastewater treatment (26%), and city buildings (17%) accounted for the bulk of emissions. City fleet vehicles (10%), streetlights & traffic signals (8%), public transit (4%), airport operations (3%), employee commuting (2%), and refrigerants (2%) accounted for smaller proportions of 2007 emissions (Fig. 1B,D). 2.4.3. Comparing 2003 and 2007 Emissions Greenhouse emissions in Dubuque totaled 80,084 tonnes COe in 2003 and 86,080 2 tonnes in 2007, a 1.7% annual rate of increase (Fig. 2). 2 In both 2003 and 2007, landfill methane emissions accounted for over /of emissions 3 from government operations, increasing by approximately 2.2% annually. Emissions from almost every other sector also increased from 2003 to 2007, including streetlights and traffic signals (+9.0%/yr), airport operations (+7.9%/yr), wastewater treatment (+5.0%/yr), employee commuting (+0.3%/yr), and public transit & vehicle fleet emissions (+2.7%/yr, each) (Tables 3A-B). The data does not reveal specific reasons for these emissions increases; possibilities include addition of new facilities (e.g. new buildings, new streetlights) and increases in the use of existing operations and facilities (e.g. greater vehicle use, expanded hours, and increases in facility capacities). Only emissions from the water delivery sector (-5.3%/yr) and city buildings (-2.5%/yr) decreased from 2003 to 2007. It is not clear why emissions declined over this period, but possibilities include alterations in facilities operations and efficiency and changes in energy usage. Due to limited records, refrigerant emissionswere assumed to be constant between both years. 12 % Annual Change (2003-2007) 2.4.4. Projected Future Emissions Emissions estimates from 2007 to 2050 were based on the differences between 2003 and 2007 emissions. While this is not a robust procedure for making accurate projections, it does provide a basic estimate of future emissions and underscores the urgency of acting to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change. Based on 2003 to 2007 trends, Dubuque municipal government operations will be 90,577 tonnes COe in 2010, an increase of 13% over 2003 emissions. If those trends continue, 2 City operations will emit 98,072 tonnes in 2015, 113,062 tonnes in 2025, and 150,537 tonnes in 2050, which would represent an 88% increase in emissions over 2003 levels (Fig. 3). Figure 3 . Projected future greenhouse gas emissions trends from 2007 to 2050 for Dubuque municipal government operations under current trends (business as usual). 2003 levels are included for comparison. 14 3CAP .RITERIA IR OLLUTANTS 3.1.I NTRODUCTION Criteria air pollutants (CAPs) are common air pollutants regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act. These pollutants can harm human and environmental health, cause property damage, and impair ecosystem services (Table 4). The EPA calls these pollutants "criteria" air pollutants because their regulation is based on human health or environmentally- based criteria. Table 4 . Sources, characteristics, and impacts to human health and the environment of criteria air pollutants inventoried for Dubuque, Iowa. 3.2.CAPED RITERIA IR OLLUTANT MISSIONS IN UBUQUE Criteria air pollutant emissions caused by Dubuque municipal government operations are detailed in Table 5. Each pollutant is estimated to have decreased from 2003 to 2007, which follows national air quality improvements resulting largely from advances in industrial andemissions technologies. 15 16 4. NS EXT TEPS 4.1I NTRODUCTION As an ICLEI member, the City of Dubuque is committed to achieving ICLEI's Five Milestones for Climate Protection: 1.Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts for both municipal activities andthe community as a whole 2.Adopt an emissions reduction target 3.Develop a local climate action plan 4.Implement policies and measures 5.Monitor and verify results This report fulfills Milestone One. A forthcoming report will address Milestones Two and Three: Adopting an Emissions Targetand Developing a Local Climate Action Plan. 4.2.SRT ETTING EDUCTION ARGETS The greenhouse gas emissions reduction target represents a specific quantified emissions reduction goal from the base year (2003) to a target year in the future. Setting a reduction target creates a specific, concrete goal around which an actionable reduction strategy can be structured. Most ICLEI communities have established 15-20 year time frames for meeting emissions goals (Table 6), with interim targets every 2-3 years to help ensure continued progress toward climate protection. Table 6 . CO2 reduction targets of sample ICLEI communities. Table reproduced from ICLEI's LGOP v 1.0. 17 4.3.DCAP EVELOPING A LIMATE CTION LAN The third milestone in ICLEI's climate protection strategy is the development of a local Climate Action Plan. Dubuque's Climate Action Plan will detail concrete steps by which City government operations can reach their greenhouse gas emission targets. ICLEI recommends that a city's action plan combines measures that are already in place as well as proposed measures that will fulfill the remainder of its reduction goals. Implementation strategies will also be discussed, including costs, funding sources, time frames, and economic, environmental, and social benefits. Strategies will be modeled on measures taken by other communities, recommendations by ICLEI, and innovative solutions uniquely suited to Dubuque. Early indicators suggest that the City of Dubuque's proactive approach to sustainability will allow for a relatively ambitious GHG reduction strategy. Examples of local government leadership in greenhouse gas reduction include methane capture at the DMASWA landfill and renovations of the Water Pollution Control Plant, both of which could be completed within the next 5-10 years. These projects alone could reduce government emissions by up to 40% below business-as-usual levels (Fig. 4). These estimates are preliminary, not concrete predictions, and should be considered merely as illustrations of the impact of possible future reductions. Other examples of ongoing local initiatives include the IBM Smarter City Initiative; Blackhills Energy Corporation's Weatherization Challenge; Alliant Energy's free home energy audits and rebate programs; and the ECIA Petal Project. Through those programs, future initiatives, and strong government and community partnerships, the City ofDubuque intends to establish itself as a leader in local and global sustainability. Figure 4 . Hypothetical estimates of greenhouse gas emission trajectories from 2003-2050 based on business as usual, 2003 levels, and emissions reductions dueto implementing methane capture at the DMASWA landfill (assumed reduction 50%) and renovations to the water pollution control plant (assumed reduction of 50%). Changes were assumed to occur in 2015. 18 5. GCC LOBALLIMATE HANGE 5.1.TGE HE REENHOUSE FFECT Figure 5. The greenhouse effect. Earth receives energy from the sun primarily in the form of light energy, or solar radiation (Fig. 5). Approximately 27% of that incoming solar radiation is reflected back into space, 20% is absorbed by the the atmosphere and clouds, and 3% is reflected from the earth's surface. So, around 50% of the original solar energy never reaches the earth's surface. The remaining 50% is absorbed by the earth's surface and emitted as long-wave thermal radiation (thick black arrow). Some of that thermal radiation escapes to space (thin black arrow), and some of it is absorbed by greenhouse gases, which keep it in the lower atmosphere (green arrow). Higher greenhouse gas concentrations absorb more radiation, which causes more thermal radiation to stay in the lower atmosphere, yielding higher average global surface temperatures. 19 5.2.CCC URRENT LIMATE HANGE Atmospheric COconcentrations have increased from approximately 280 ppm (parts 2 th per million) in the mid-18century to over 383 ppm in 2009, and continue to increase at a rate of nearly 2 ppm /year. Land use change, including deforestation and intensive agriculture, has 1 caused significant loss of the carbon stored in plants and the soil, and accounts for about /of 3 2 the COincrease since the 1800s. The other /has come from the burning of fossil fuels. In 23 addition to CO, several other atmospheric trace gases, including CH, NO, and CFCs, 242 contribute to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Oceans, plants, and soils absorb some of these greenhouse gases, but not at the rate at which we are emitting them. These emissions can linger in the atmosphere for more than a century, making immediate action crucial. The sooner steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the better the future will be for many generations to come. In their 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that “increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused th most ofthe increases in global average temperatures since the mid-20century.” In the past 100 years, the mean global surface temperature has risen 0.74°C (1.33°F) and has increased most at northern latitudes. 5.3.GCCC LOBAL ONSEQUENCES OF LIMATE HANGE The IPCC's 2007 report details many of the consequences of climate change, including the impacts on freshwater quality and quantity, species ranges and phenologies, species extinction rates, ocean levels and acidity, heat-related mortality, disease vectors, extreme weather events, and regional weather patterns (Table 7). Many of these consequences are already occurring and well documented. The IPCC IV's 2007 Working Group II report, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilitydiscusses these potential impacts in detail. Climate impacts are expected to be particularly severe in less affluent areas of the world, especially in places that are already suffering from severe environmental stress. Less developed nations have fewer financial, physical, andorganizational resources to adapt to climate change compared to wealthier nations. In addition, the local and national economies of less developed nations tend to rely heavily on natural resource-based sectors, such as agriculture, fishing, and forestry,all of which are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. Over the next century, the IPCC predicts that temperatures will rise 1.8°C (3.2°F) in a low- emissions scenario and 4.0°C (7.2°F) in a high emissions scenario. Even if significant mitigation measures are instituted immediately, global temperatures are expected to rise 0.40°C (0.72°F) over the next two decades due merely to the greenhouse gases already emitted. 20 Table 7. Some predicted impacts of climate change detailedby the IPCC Assessment Report IV. ***Very high confidence9 in 10 chance; **High confidence confidence5 in 10 chance of being correct. 21 5.4.CCM LIMATE HANGE IN THE IDWEST IA, IL, WI, MN, IN, MI, OH, MO The Midwest has both a critical impact on and significant stake in the global climate. 2005 emissions in the Midwest were higher than those of all other nations except China and Russia. India, with its nearly 1.2 billion residents, emitted less COthan theMidwest. 2 Agriculture, which is particularly vulnerable to such climate changes, is responsible for over $19 billion of Iowa's economy and 20% of its jobs, so Iowa clearly has a substantial economic stake in working for a hospitable climate. In a 2009 report, the U.S. Global Change Research Program compiled the latest scientific findings on the impacts of global warming on the U.S. Their discussion of predicted changes in temperature, precipitation, and weather patterns is summarized in the proceeding sections. 5.4.1. Temperature Iowa's summers could come to resemble those of present day Arkansas or Oklahoma over the coming century (Fig. 6), with mean annual temperatures rising 5-10°F (Fig. 7). Under a high emissions scenario, the number of days per year exceeding 100°F is projected to increase from fewer than 10 days currently to 40-60 days by the end of the century. Higher temperatures can increase utility bills, respiratory problems from stagnant air and ground level ozone, heat related mortality, and stress on ecosystems, crops, and livestock. Stressed crops also tend to be more susceptible to damage from pests and pathogens, which are generally favored by shorter, warmer winters. So although growing season length will increase, the potential for Figure 6 . Predicted changes to Illinois summer temperature and precipitation. Iowa will change heat waves, floods, droughts, and pests will similarly. Figure modified from U.S. GCRP 2009 present significant challenges for farmers. report-full citation in Appendix D. Figure 7 . Predicted temperature changes in Iowa by mid-century and the end of the century in a high emissions scenario and a low emissions scenario. Fig. modified from U.S. GCRP 2009 report-full citation in Appendix D. 22 5.4.2. Precipitation By the end of the century, winters and springs are predicted to be 20-30% wetter, which could increase the risk of spring floods. In the hot summer I seasons, precipitation is predicted to n decrease, which will increase the likelihood of droughts events (Fig. 8). s The U.S. Global Change u Research Program's 2009 report reveals m that over the past 50 years, the number m of downpours in the Midwest has a increased by 31%. In other words, more r of our precipitation is falling in fewer, y more intense storms that increase flood , risk and is not conducive to crop performance. Over the next century, this I trend is expected to continue, with more o and more of our precipitation falling in w intense events separated by long dry a spells. This increase in severe weather is likely to lead tomore flood events like Figure 8 . Predicted seasonal percent change in precipitation by those of 1993 and 2008, whose costs to the end of the century (2080-2099) for Iowa underhigh and Iowans have been estimated at $1.56 low emissions scenarios. Figure modified from U.S. GCRP billion and $10 billion dollars, 2009 report-full citation in Appendix D. respectively. 5.5.M ITIGATION The IPCC 2007 report outlines mitigation strategies in several key sectors. Their general recommendations include: Improved land use management, including reduced deforestation and improved practices in forestry and agriculture. Improved waste management, including composting, recycling, and overall waste minimization at the production, consumption, and disposal phases. Reduced combustion of fossil fuels through improvements in energy efficiency, conservation, alternative energy, alternative transportation, and improved materials and design of everything from household items to cities and transportation networks. 23 AA PPENDIX DS ATA OURCES Government Inventory Water Delivery Facilities Solid Waste Facilities Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe Waste Characterization Data (post 2002): City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Paul Schultz Missing Records (Accounts and Months): City of Dubuque -Public Works Dept. Craig Clefisch pschultz@cityofdubuque.org Alliant Energy WIP and Annual Tonnage Data: Natural Gas Usage: Chuck Goddard Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque -Public Works Dept. City of Dubuque Finance Dept. cgoddard@cityofdubuque.org Missing Records( Accounts and Months): Jennifer Totten Buildings and Facilities Black Hills Energy Corporation Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe Wastewater Facilities City of Dubuque -Finance Dept. Electric Usage: Missing Electric Usage Records (Accounts and Months): Ken Tekippe Craig Clefisch City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Alliant Energy Natural Gas Usage: Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Ken Tekippe Craig Clefisch City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Alliant Energy Missing Natural Gas Records (Accounts and Months): Natural Gas Usage: Black Hills Energy Corporation Ken Tekippe Jennifer Totten City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Diesel Backup Generators: Missing Records( Accounts and Months): Obtained by individual department request Black Hills Energy Corporation Jennifer Totten Street and Traffic Lights Diesel For Generator and BOD load: Street and Traffic Lights: Jonathan Brown, Plant Manager -Water Ken Tekippe Pollution Control Plant (WPCP) City of Dubuque Finance Dept. jobrown@cityofdubuque.org Missing Records (Accounts and Months): (563) 589 -4176 Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Airport Facilities Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Natural Gas Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Jennifer Totten Black Hills Energy Corporation 24 Vehicle Fleet Community Inventory Public Works Filling Station Data: Public Works Dept. Garage Kathy Masterpol, Public Works Aggregate Natural Gas: kmasterpol@cityofdubuque.org MarkErnst (563) 589 -4274 Black hills Energy Corporation Mark.Ernst@blackhillscorp.com Water Pollution Control Plant Fleet Data: Jonathan Brown, Plant Manager -WPCP Aggregate Electric jobrown@cityofdubuque.org (563) 589 -4176Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy DMASWA (landfill) VehicleFleet:CraigClefisch@alliantenergy.com Mike Kelly Aggregate Vehicle Miles Traveled (563) 451-4859 Chandra Ravada Airport Vehicle Fleet: ECIA Dubuque Airport Director of Transportation Department Robert Grierson Cravada@ecia.org Employee Commute Aggregate Airt Travel: Gordon Vetch Survey conducted in August 2009: 182 respondents. Dubuque Regional Airport Trasnsit : Annual Waste Tonnage: Keyline Transit Chuck Goddard Jon Rodocker City of Dubuque Public Works Transit Manager cgoddard@cityofdubuque.org Office (563) 589-4196 Fax (563) 589-4340 Power Generation jrodocke@cityofdubuque.org Alliant Energy –Dubuque Generating Station Power Plant Greenhouse gas, SOx, and NOx emissions: Solid Waste: US EPA Clean Air Markets Data and Maps –accessed Annual Municipal Waste Data: 11/26/09 Paul Schultz and Dave Sitzman City of Dubuqe Dept. of Public Works CAP Data pschultz@cityofdubuque.org 2002 CAP data from power plant and industrial sites dsitzman@cityofdubuque.org US EPA National Emission Inventory Database -Facility Emissions Reports –accessed 11/26/09 Missing Data Filled in By: Jessica Severson Industrial sites whose direct CAP emissions were Allied Waste included in totals: (563) 556-5393 Alliant Energy –Dubuque Generating Station jseverson@republicservices.com Jeld-Wen Inc. Dubuque Water Pollution Control Plant Eagle Window and Door Inc. Refrigerants: Koch Materials Co. Fire Suppressant Data: Maggie Blaser Dubuque Fire Equipment Refrigerant Data: Obtained through individual dept. request 25 AB PPENDIX N&A OTES SSUMPTIONS General Methodology: Except where otherwise noted, the methods, calculators, and default emissions factors provided by ICLEI's Local Government Operations Protocol (LGOP) (v1.0, 2008) and CACP2009 software v2.1 were followed for all calculations. If a GHG(e.g. HFCs, PFCs, and SO) is not included in tables of emissions totals, it is 6 because it has a value of zero or is sufficiently low to qualify as De Minimis. All emissions were included in reported total emissions, but not all gases were specifically identified if they constituted an insubstantial proportion of the total. Electricity Methodology Used the MAIN South Region of the EPA’s regionally defined “eGRID” years 1990- 2003 (Table 2-LGOP). for default electricity emissions factor of COand MRO West 2 region of the EPA’s regionally define “eGRID” years 2004 and 2005 (Table 1-LGOP) for NOand CH, in Inventory year 2003. 24 Used the MRO West region of the EPA’s regionally defined “eGRID” years 2004 and 2005 (Table 1-LGOP) for default electricity emissions factors of CO, NOand CHin 224 inventory year 2007. Used the Mid-Continent Area Power Pool region of the North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) to identify electricity emissions factors for each of the following criteria air pollutants NOx, SOx, CO, VOC, and PM. These emissions factors were 10 applied to both (2003, 2007) inventory years. Solid Waste Facilities Used IPCC's Mathematically Exact First-Order Decay Model National defaults for Waste Charicterization Data (adjusted yard waste for ban) used for yrs preceding "pay as you throw recycling program" (2002). Anual average rainfall estimated to be 38 inches per yr Community solid waste: used community analysis annual waste calculator CACP2009v2.1 Vehicle Fleet Data from vehicle model years outside the categories provided by CACP were placed in the nearest category (e.g. light trucks from 1984 were included in the light trucks MY 1987 to 1993 category) Used average miles/hrs per yr for available time periods to estimate annual vehicle usage. Airport Vehicle Fleet: detailed breakdown was not available; used aggregate fuel use by type for 2003 and 2007. Entered as Alt Method Heavy Duty for both diesel and gasoline vehicles. 26 Refrigerants Methodology Used “Estimation based on equipment inventory and refrigerant use” (6.6.2.2 on pg 57 of LGOP). Used default coefficients from Table 6.3 on p. 58 of LGOP for missing Full Charge Capacity and Operating Emissions Factor data. Because default emission factors are highly uncertain, the resulting emissions estimates are considered much less accurate than the mass balance approach and most likely resulted in an overestimation of Scope 1 fugitive emissions. However, as of the writing of this report, it was the best information available. Used emissions factor recommended by IPCC for R-22 which is classified as an Information Item and is not addressed in the LGOP. No HFCs found in dry chemical MSDS sheets used by the City of Dubuque. 27 AC PPENDIX . CDP ITY OF UBUQUE ROFILE Jurisdiction Name:Dubuque Street Address:50 West 13th Street Dubuque, Iowa 52001 Website Address:www.cityofdubuque.org Size:27.7 sq miles Population:56,583 Annual Operating Budget:$91,638,524 (FY 2010) Employees (Full Time Equivalent):524 (2003); 631 (2007) COe per employee:152.8 (2003); 136.4 (2007) 2 Climate Zone:2 Annual Heating Degree Days:7,327 Annual Cooling Degree Days:593 Contact Person:Paul Schultz Resource Management Coordinator pschultz@cityofdubuque.org (563) 589-4250 28 AD PPENDIX . CC REDITS AND ITATIONS The following sources were cited extensively in the Climate Change section, and should be consulted for further information: IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth A ssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,M.L. Parry, Of.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. Van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7-22. Global Climate Change Impacts of the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.) Cambridge University Press, 2009. Figures 9, 10, and 11 in this report was modified from the Figures on p. 117, 29, and 31, respectively, of: Global Climate Change Impacts of the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.) Cambridge University Press, 2009. 29 AE PPENDIX . ES MISSIONS BY COPE Table E1 . Greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors of Dubuque municipal government operations in 2003 and 2007 reported by scope. Figure E1 . Visual representation of scopes. Source: ICLEI LGOP v1.0 30