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5 6 13 Work Session_Housing and Neighborhood Choices PresentationSchool of Urban & Regional Planning Housing for a Vibrant Dubuque Neighborhood Choice & Redevelopment in Dubuque, Iowa May 6, 2013 Group Members: Dana Bartolomei; Andrew Bassman; Amal Eltahir; Ellen Johnson Project Partners: Alvin Nash, City of Dubuque; Shannon Gaherty, Greater i u•uque leve opmen orp.; Inge a 'e sc e, ►as ing on Neighborhood Development Corp. 1 THE 112. UNIVERSITY OF IOWA THE UNIVERSIN OF IOWA IOWA INITIATIV • A • • • 0 11 11 1 Outline • Background Information • Project Purpose • Methodology • Results • Area anal sis vision ob'ectives & I recommendations Context Percent of Dubuque County Population 2000 2010 22.0% 0.7% 1.5 °/� _ 1.6% 2.2% -0 4.5% 2.7% 64.7% 22.3% 1.5 %-\ 1.6 %� 2.0% 2.3% 4.3% 4.5% 61.5% ■ 1 • 1 • 1 ' • • 1 Dyersville Cascade Epworth Farley Peosta Other Towns & Unincorporated i 3 Context Leg en d n Dubuque Crt Block Group Vacancy Rate —7 0% J 0.1 % -3.0% r 1 3.1 % -6.7% - 6.8% -12.0% 121% -215% 05 2 4 i 4 Help make Dubuque a more attractive place for households through understanding the factors that impact locational choice What makes a neighborhood attractive to households? Methodology • Factors that Affect Neighborhood Choice • Demographics, workforce, & housing characteristics • Affordability analysis • Residential land use & zoning • History of residential development I 6 Methodology • Factors that Affect Neighborhood Choice • Demographics, workforce, & housing characteristics • Affordability analysis • Residential land use & zoning • History of residential development • Consumer Preferences and Neighborhood I • Hedonic price regression TT • Target Area Analysis • Vision, objectives, recommendations 7 Consumer Preferences & Neighborhood Choice Hedonic Price Regression • Dependent variable: • Housing sales (12 year period) • Independent variables: • Structure • Neighborhood • Environment I • Structural Attributes Building Age Number of Bedrooms Garage Stalls Building Condition Lot Area Living Area I Independent Variables Structural Attributes Neighborhood Attributes Building Age Transit (access) Number of Bedrooms Downtown (proximity) Garage Stalls Grocery (proximity) Building Condition Historic District (within) Lot Area Crime (incidents) Living Area Major Road (proximity) Elementary School I 10 Independent Variables I Structural Attributes Neighborhood Attributes Environmental Attributes Building Age Transit (access) Open Space (proximity) Number of Bedrooms Downtown (proximity) Mississippi River (proximity) Garage Stalls Grocery (proximity) Air Emissions (proximity to major emissions point) Building Condition Historic District (within) Wastewater Treatment (proximity to facility) Lot Area Crime (incidents) Floodplain (within) Living Area Major Road (proximity) Levee Protection Elementary School Elevation 11 Results Significant Amenities: Variable Willingness to Pay Open Space $11,000 Historic District $17,000 Condition- Above Average $14,700 i 12 £I. I (sluepioui 8LUIJO ui esaeJoui Voe Jed) 000`9$ - auapo (aaaA Jed) OOZ$ - a6y 00031,$ - ebaJenyMoIe9 - uo!Tipuo3 /(Bd 0J ssaubu!II!M elgePeA :samuawe -sia }ueowais 00L `t7 L $ ebeJeny enogy - uo!Tipuo3 000 `L L $ Po!JTsi a oiaoTs! H 000`111 eoads uedp /(Bd 0J ssaubu!II!M elgePeA :sagivauabr lue3mu6is slinseH Consumer Preferences & Neighborhood Choice Interviews • Snowball sampling method • 17 interviews; not statistically representative of the population I 14 Ihuant ,G �"- Environmental & Neighborhood Amenities % Above Average Housing Condition by Tract Historic Preservation District r Map Created by: Aural Eltahir I Data Sources: Dubuque City &City Assessor,lowa DNR GIS Library, Iowa GIS Repository 2012 0 0.5 1 2 3 4 Miles Housing Condition Below Average Condition Housing Kernel Density (Square miles) 0 -132 133 - 599 600 - 1,34D 1,341 - 2.589 V 4 11 Data Sources:Dubuque City Assessor,2012 Map Created by: Amal Eltahir, March 2013 0 J.5 1 2 3 4 Mi es I Map }Created by: Amal Eltahir Data Sou�rc esAmerican Community Survey 2010 Unique Crime 2006 -2009 Kernel Density (Sqaure miles) J 0 -847 848 - 3,390 3,391 8,687 8,688 - 16,526 16,527 - 27,013 Data Sources: City of Dubuque & NIU Center for Governmental Research Map Created by: Aural Eltahir, March 2013 0 05 I 2 3 4 Miles Estimated Willingness to Pay for Land Commercial or Industrial Land A $0.00 - $5681676 B $56,816.77 - $85,605.48 C S85,605.49 - $143,717.17 Hunikr Rd Oki Highway lid Data Source:Dubuque City & County Assessor, Iowa DNR Iowa GIS Repository, and City of Dubuque, 2012 t4 t,,,jecut Map created by: Amal El:ahir Miles 35 1 7 3 4 Oaldanr1 Garrets Rd Key Wes Rd il:T151 Estimated Willingness to Pay for Land ▪ Commercial or Industrial Land ▪ A $080 - 556,816 78 B $56.816.77 - 585,605.48 ▪ C 085.605.49 - 5143,717.17 Oaa Sm.:* Outue. r .444 Strengths Traditional neighborhood design Proximity to downtown and jobs Well-served by public transit Diversity Estimated Willingness to Pay for Land ▪ Commercial or Industrial Land ▪ A 5000- 556,816.78 B $56.816.77 - 585,605.48 ▪ C 085.605.49- 5143,717.17 Strengths '.1111.1 Weaknesses Traditional Deteriorated older neighborhood design housing stock Proximity to downtown and jobs High vacancy rates Well- served by public transit Higher density kr.PM lore GIS a.pos,, .. Diversity Greater proportion of rental properties Estimated Willingness to Pay for Land ▪ Commercial or Industrial Land ▪ A $000- $56,816.76 B $56,816.77 - 685,605.48 ▪ C 685.605.49 - $147.717.17 Date Dulettette Iowa ONR, Iowa GIS Reem r. DV urea. n, Iu Opportunities Vacant Parcels Rehabilitation potential Increased locational demand Target population increase i Area A Opportunities & Threats Opportunities Estimated Willingness to Pay for Land ▪ Commercial or Industrial Land ▪ A $O 00 - $56,816 76 B $56,816.77 - 685,605.48 ▪ C 885.60549- $14371717 Data Sow. ..... . assaasot Vacant Parcels Rehabilitation potential Increased locational demand Target population increase Threats Lower willingness to pay Concentration of lower income population Higher crime rate Lack of inclusive zoning in neighboring towns Area A Vision Statement Area A is home to a diverse, yet integrated population with a variety of decent yental and ownership housing options that are attractive to young professionals, families, and older adults within a range of incomes. I 24 Area A Objectives • Improve housing condition • Provide opportunities for infill • Reduce housing density • Promote neighborhood amenities I 25 9Z samngoe aiesaa /geNaa /aseuoand puedxe pug anuguoo • 1, SUOi4EpUOWWO3OH Ao! � Area A PoIiry Recommendations 1. Continue and expand purchase /rehab /resale activities 2. Explore public- private partnerships to develop vacant parcels and promote homeownership i 27 Area A PoIiry Recommendations 1. Continue and expand purchase /rehab /resale activities 2. Explore public- private partnerships to develop vacant parcels and promote homeownership 3. Establish new single - family zoning district to decrease density, coupled with efforts to expand affordable housing options throughout city i Area A PoIiry Recommendations 1. Continue and expand purchase /rehab /resale activities 2. Explore public- private partnerships to develop vacant parcels and promote homeownership 3. Establish new single - family zoning district to decrease density, coupled with efforts to expand affordable housing options throughout city 4. Pursue opportunities to increase open space i 29