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Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update Copyrighted August 19, 2019 City of Dubuque Action Items # 9. ITEM TITLE: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Update SUMMARY: City Manager transmitting the final reportfrom the University of Northern lowa's Centerfor Energyand Environmental Education, which conducted an update to the Dubuque's community-wide Greenhouse Gas Inventory. SUGGESTED DISPOSITION: Suggested Disposition: Receive and File ATTACHMENTS: Description Type Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report-MVM Memo City Manager Memo Staff Memo Staff Memo GHG Inventory Supporting Documentation Dubuque THE CITY OF � uI�AaMca cih DuB E � � I � � I Maste iece on the Mississi i Zoo�•zoiz•zois YP pp zoi�*zoi9 TO: The Honorable Mayor and City Council Members FROM: Michael C. Van Milligen, City Manager SUBJECT: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report DATE: August 9, 2019 Sustainable Community Coordinator Gina Bell is transmitting the final report from the University of Northern lowa's Center for Energy and Environmental Education, which conducted an update to the Dubuque's community-wide Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The report shows a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. As Gina says in her memo, "While this postulates that Dubuque is on track to meet the 50% by 2030 goal, it does not illustrate that only the easiest and most cost-friendly reduction strategies have been implemented to date. The time for incrementalism has passed. The time for bold action is upon us. The work to close the final 23% emissions reduction will not only be time intensive but also skill and resource intensive." v Mic ael C. Van Milligen MCVM:jh Attachment cc: Crenna Brumwell, City Attorney Teri Goodmann, Assistant City Manager Cori Burbach, Assistant City Manager Gina Bell, Sustainable Community Coordinator Dubuque THE CITY OF � AII�Imeriea City DuB E �.��n�� 1► Maste iece on the Mississi i Z°°'.Z°lz.z°13 rP pP zoi�.zoi9 TO: Michael Van Milligen, City Manager FROM: Gina Bell, Sustainable Community Coordinator SUBJECT: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report DATE: August 9, 2019 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this memo is to share the final report from the University of Northern lowa's (UNI) Center for Energy and Environmental Education (CEEE) which conducted an update to Dubuque's community-wide greenhouse gas inventory. BACKGROUND In 2003 and in 2007, community greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories were completed. In 2009, City Council adopted the Community Climate Action & Resiliency Plan, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas produced by the community by 50% below 2003 levels by 2030. At this time, a baseline inventory was established (2003) and in 2013 the GHG inventory was conducted and concluded an 11% reduction in emissions. UNI Energy Program Manager Eric Giddens led the work with me acting as local project manager, collecting required data from City staff, utility providers, and other partners. This report will inform the update to the Community Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, which will provide actions this community must take to address climate change. DISCUSSION The report shows a 27% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. While this postulates that Dubuque is on track to meet the 50% by 2030 goal, it does not illustrate that only the easiest and most cost-friendly reduction strategies have been implemented to date. The time for incrementalism has passed. The time for bold action is upon us. The work to close the final 23% emissions reduction will not only be time intensive but also skill and resource intensive. RECOMMENDED ACTION I respectfully request City Manager share this information, which quantifies the City's greenhouse gas reduction efforts, with the City Council. Enclosure 1 '�'k. � � ,�.�. �� .�� ;.:�� . _ ^ '� 1 � � � � � .i , � , i`� ,r ',�i � I � � '` .�./`��c+' :, � ��:. �� -o� � �• ..' I �' . .. � • n y��pi��1� �, f ' fr�j..y.y�i ti� ,�r� R�" � r� �S�FM._ . :��v �� ?1 fy� ,; � .,� r e � �rrS �. . � . { . Y ., i � �' p t. � � ,• � +1r �'��'��J►; .i�'d'.� *�(�� f �►�{.r �� .��.��«� i�:« � . . � � � � , • Y,,�� i �ti Q' f� �i y i "3� w �� ,., � . a r} � . �, ��A � *'�� . � � ., E ' �'�J � Y' t. h�i ��+�^ ti� �+q �L�f.'�tr •�..yr ✓'b��:,,.9r.•.c;�� . . ' ��`- � � �. �l1� ,•.f.tii1.°, ' -�-,' " 1 :,`.\!', .�►i.i ,1,it"`,•-r.. L ' . . . �� : • .� . . . �� .. 1 ' - - , • - . • < � � 1 1 ' 1 � • • • • . • 1 � 1 : � � � � � � � • . � � , , , , ,� ,. � � C'lfftNfEIGP�/aYIVIVlIlf110IEJICd[IOIId��NI � � � � CREDITS AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Dubuque, Iowa Gina Bell Craig Clefisch Laura Roussell Guy Hemenway William O'Brien John Foster Anderson Sainci Cheryl Sheldon Denise Blakeley Ihrig Iowa DOT U.S. Census Bureau ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability USA This repart was prepared by Emma Borchers and Jake Hogan, Student Fellows with the University of Narthern Iowa Conservation Corps,under the supervision of Eric Giddens,U1VI Energy Education and Outreach. U1VI Conservation Corps is a program of the Center for Energy and Environxnental Education at the University of Northern Iowa. The authors would like to thank the City of Dubuque staff for providing much of the insight and local information necessary for the completion of this report. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Tableof Contents.......................................................................................................3 List of Tables and Figures............................................................................................4 ExecutiveSummary....................................................................................................6 Background......................................................................................................9 Methodology...................................................................................................10 Sustainability&Climate Change Mitigation Activities in Dubuque...................................10 Community Emission Inventory...................................................................................14 CommunityProfile............................................................................................14 Community-wide Sources &Activities Frame............................................................14 Business-As-Usual Forecast.........................................................................................21 Conclusion..............................................................................................................23 OO 2013 ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability USA. All Rights Reserved. 3 TABLES AND FIGURES List of Figures ES 1 2003 Baseline GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) ES 2 2014 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) ES 3 2015 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) ES 4 2016 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) ES 5 2017 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) ES 6 2018 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) Fig 1 2003 Baseline GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) Fig 2 2014 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) Fig 3 2015 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) Fig 4 2016 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) Fig 5 2017 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) Fig 6 2018 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque (MT CO2e) ji'lg '] Dubuque Community-Wide GHG Emissions Inventories by year (MT CO2e) Fig 8 Dubuque Community-Wide GHG Emissions Business-As-Usual Forecast (MT CO2e) 4 List of Tables j 2003 Baseline Community-Wide GHG Emissions by Source/Activity Z Dubuque Community Indicators 3 2014 Community-Wide GHG Emissions by Source/Activity 4 2015 Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions by Source/Activity S 2016 Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions by Source/Activity ( 2017 Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions by Source/Activity '7 2018 Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions by Source/Activity $ Dubuque Community-Wide GHG Emissions Business-As-Usual Forecast (MT CO2e) 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The City of Dubuque recognizes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activity are catalyzing profound climate change,the consequences of which pose substantial risks to the future health, wellbeing, and prosperity of our community. Furtherxnore,Dubuque has multiple opportunities to benefit by acting quickly to reduce community GHG emissions. With reducing GHG emissions,Dubuque has the opportunity to create green jobs,reduce energy and transportation costs for residents, improve health for residents, and make Dubuque a more attractive place to live and grow a business. This report provides estimates of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from sources and activities in the city of Dubuque and the steps being taken to reduce emissions below the levels of the 2003 baseline year. 2003 Baseline Year Inventory Fig ES 1:2003 Baseline GHG Emissions Inventory for Commundy W Dubuque,IA(MT CO2e) 82,319 - 7% 184,805 -16% ■Res Elec 169,881- 15% ■Com Elec ■Ind Elec 95,875- 9% ■Res NG ■Com NG � Ind NG $1,438 - 7% ■Transportation ■LFG 110,218 -10% 4,243 - 32% Key Findings (ES 2-� Fig ES 2:2014 GHG Inventwy for Commundy of Dubuque,IA(MT CO2e) 36,302 -4% 131,629 -14% 168,586 - 17% ■Res Elec ■ComElec 113,071 - ■Ind Elec 12% ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG ■Transportation 98,680 ■LFG 10% ,712 - 24% 120,215 - 12% 6 Fig ES 3:2015 GHG InveMory fw Commundy of Dubuque,IA(MT CO2e) 51,782 - 6% 99,839-12% ■Res Elec 167,728 -21% ■Com Elec 91,868 - 11% ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG ■Transportation i5,114- ■LFG 19% 88,512 - 11� 97,553 - 12% Fig ES 4:2016 GHG Inventory for Community of Dubuque,IA(MT CO2e) 44,109 - 6% 74,953 -10% ■Res Elec 71,274 - 10% 167,037 - ■ComElec 23p ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG 126,454 - 18% ■Transportation ■LFG 83,330 - 12% 90,467 -13% 7 Fig ES 5:2017 GHG Inventwy for Commundy of Dubuque,IA(MT CO2e) 53,721 - 7% 81,384 - 11% ■Res Elec 77,795 - 10% ■ComElec 168,446 - 22% ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG 134,267 - ■Transportation 18p ■LFG � 87,111 -11% 95,426 -13% Fig ES 6:2018 GHG Inventwy for Commundy of Dubuque,IA(MT CO2e) 64,305 -8% 88,832 - 11% ■Res Elec 81,740 - 10% 167,132 - ■ComElec 20p ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG 137,629 - 17% ■Transportation ■LFG 98,878 -12% 114,064 - 14% 8 BACKGROUND Naturally occurring gases dispersed in the atmosphere determine the Earth's climate by trapping solar radiation. This phenomenon is known as the greenhouse effect. Overwhelming evidence shows that human activities are increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases and changing the global climate. The most significant contributor is the burning of fossil fuels far transportation, electricity generation and other purposes, which introduces large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atxnosphere. Collectively,these gases intensify the natural greenhouse effect, causing global average surface and lower ahnospheric temperatures to rise. Dubuque has the potential to be impacted by increased air pollution,more severe flooding, and other environxnental concerns. To address the root cause of this threat, in 2013 Dubuque created a Community Climate Action and Resiliency Plan that has a goal of reducing Dubuque's community wide greenhouse gas emissions by 50%below the baseline year of 2003 (Fig ES 6&Table 1)by the year 2030. The City of Dubuque also signed on to the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy to forxnally and publicly express its commitment to reducing Dubuque's contribution to the cause of climate change. Fig. 1:2003 Baseline GHG Inventory for community of Dubuque, IA (MT CO2e) 82,319 -7% 184,805 -16% 169,881- 15% ■Res Elec ■Com Elec 95,875 -9% ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG ■Transportation81,438 - 7% ■LFG 110,218 -10% 243 -32% 9 Table 1:2003 Baseline Community-Wide GHG Emissions by5ource/Activity � � 1 • � • • Residential Use of 200,817,098 kWh 184,805 Electricity Commercial Use of 104,182,052 kWh 95,875 Electricity Industrial Use of 384,935,560 kWh 354,243 Electricity Residential Natural Gas 20,827,931 Therxns 110,218 Commercial Natural Gas 15,389,306 Therxns 81,438 Industrial Natural Gas 8,725,384 Therxns 43,818 On-road Vehicle Travel 354,610,505 VMT 169,881 Landfill Gas 2,940 MT CHa 82,319 METHODOLOGY Community Emissions Protocol The Community Protocol was released by ICLEI in October 2012, and represents a national standard in guidance to help U.S. local governments develop effective community GHG emissions inventories. It establishes reporting requirements for all community GHG emissions inventories,provides detailed accounting guidance for quantifying GHG emissions associated with a range of emission sources and community activities, and provides a number of optional reparting frameworks to help local governxnents customize their community GHG emissions inventory reports based on their local goals and capacities. U1VI CEEE utilized this protocol to complete Dubuque's inventory. SUSTAINABILITY & CLIMATE CHANGE NIITIGATION ACTIVITIES IN DUBUQUE After serving 10 years on the City Council, Roy D. Buol ran far the office of Mayor in 2005. His platform was based upon"engaging citizens as partners,"and what he heard from thousands of citizens was a consistent theme surrounding water quality,recycling, green space,public transit, cultural vitality, accessibility and downtown revitalization. During the 2006 City Council goal-setting process,Mayor Buol proposed and received full support from his council colleagues to focus on sustainability as a City top priority, stating"cities that get out in front on sustainability will have competitive economic advantages in the future."What soon became known as Sustainable Dubuque is a City Council adopted, community-created, and citizen-led initiative whose story officially begins in 2006. A City Council priority each year since, we are continually working to expand awareness, create partnerships, and encourage initiatives involving all sectors of our community. Dubuque became an early leader on the sustainability front Dubuque has already implemented programs that have or will lead to ancillary benefits in the form of energy conservation and greenhouse gas mitigation. The initiatives that Dubuque currently has in place include: 10 • Sustainable Dubuque Task Force The City Council moved to create a city-wide citizen taskforce, supported by City Staff,to develop a comprehensive definition of what sustainability meant to our community. Aptly named the"Sustainable Dubuque Task Force,"the representation included individuals who brought diverse backgrounds and interests to the process, including local governxnent, schools, utility companies,religious organizations,neighborhood associations,youth organizations, non-profits, environmental organizations and business stakeholders. The group met over the next two years, collecting community-wide input to develop a vision. The process also included presentations to community organizations and businesses to discuss targeted visions and ideas. Additionally, nearly 900 community surveys were completed. The results of these efforts, along with other data collected by the task force, were used to develop the Sustainable Dubuque vision and model which focuses on a balanced approach to life quality and includes "economic prosperity, environmental integrity, and sociaUcultural vibrancy."The collective desire of our citizens to create value and a legacy of life quality through sustainable practices and programs was defined. • U.S. Conference of Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement In 2006 Dubuque Mayor, Roy D. Buol signed the U.S. Conference of Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement in suppart of the Kyoto Protocol. This signifies that Dubuque is striving to be a replicable sustainability model for all communities, especially those with populations under 200,000 where 40%of the United States lives. • 4-STAR Certified Community The STAR Community Rating System is a national certification which measures a community's environmental, economic, and social efforts to achieve sustainability. Dubuque scored a total of 468 of 720 points, a significant achievement. • Green Vision Education The Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency has an organized the Green Vision Education program to recognize area schools for their sustainability efforts. This program assess the schools on Energy Efficiency,Resource Management, Pollution Prevention, Sustainable Purchasing, and Eco-Literacy. These sustainability practices are then incorporated into their curriculum. • Community ClimateAction and ResiliencyPlan The Dubuque Community Greenhouse Gas Reduction Task Force agreed upon the target of reducing community-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 50%below the 2003 level by 2030. This target was adopted by the City Council in 2013. • Petal Project The East Central Intergovernmental Association created the Petal Projectto help businesses reduce their nabxral resource use in five categories: Waste Reduction,Energy Conservation, Pollution Prevention, StaffEducation, and Water Conservation. 11 • Historic Millwork District Over one million square feet of historic warehouse space is being redeveloped. Private building owners are renovating the warehouses using sustainable best practices. Furtherxnore, the public sector is creating a $200 million livable neighbor for diverse housing, entrepreneurial businesses, a thriving arts and culture scene, open spaces, and the historic preservation and energy-efficient technologies. • Water and Resource Recovery Center In 2013 the City's wastewater treatment plant underwent a $70 million upgrade. The facility now uses anaerobic digestion, converting wastewater sludge to 12S tons of fertilizer a day. Methane gas is now being captured from the digestion process. It is cleaned and burned to power turbines that generate electricity far the facility. Excess biogas is also being injected into the nabxral gas pipeline for others to use. • The Jule The City's public transportation program underwent a complete transformation of routes and vehicles. This included the introduction of new programs like the Rack and Ride, which allows passengers to use the bicycle racks free of charge with the purchase of a regular bus fare ticket. Something worth noting is that the City has seen a 16%increase in public transit ridership over the last 5 years. • Smarter City o Smarter Water A community-wide water meter replacement project took place over a 12-month period with over 300 households. This project provided the participants with near real-time personalized information about their consumption habits, including usage in gallons, cost, or carbon footprint. They saw a 6.6%decrease in water utilization, 8-fold increase in leak detection and response, and a 61%participant change in the way they use water. o Smarter Electricity Alliant Energy installed nearly 1,000 Advanced Metering Infrastructure meters in volunteer homes. The volunteers were able to compare use to their own history or other households most "like them", set goals for use reduction, and compete in community challenges. They saw that 26%of Dubuque's average household use is from appliances not in use,usage reductions from participants from 3%to 11%, and 45%of participants saying they found ways to reduce their own personal use. o Smarter Travel 1,000 Dubuque volunteers were recruited to install a Smarter Travel application on their smartphone, as well as, another 500 public transit users to carry radio frequency identification tags. The study collected anonymous data on how,when, and where the participants traveled within the community to identify opportunities to reduce vehicle miles traveled. The data can be used to educate the volunteers, implement policy,build infrastructure, and shape public transit routes. 12 o Smarter Discards Over 300 households volunteered to allow their weekly trash,recycling, and food scraps/yard debris setout weights to be collected in anonymized form. A personalized portal provided diversion tips for beneficial use,household goal challenges, insights into household discard patterns, and analytics that compare discard generation with other households with similar profiles. The volunteers increased their diversion by 5%and reported changed consumption habits. 13 COMMUNITY EMISSIONS INVENTORY RESULTS COMMUNITY PROFILE To put emissions inventory data in context, basic information about the community such as population and number of households is needed. This inforxnation is provided in Table 1. Table 2: Dubuque Community Indicators 2014 2015 2016 2017 Po ulation* 58,086 58,409 58,535 58,410 Households* 13,916 13,964 14,265 14,239 *Data source: American Community Survey 5-year estimates. 2018 datawill not be available until November of 2019. COMMUNITY-WIDE SOURCES AND ACTIVITIES FRAME The community-wide sources and activities frame includes direct emissions from the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Landfill(an emissions source) and emissions that result from use of energy by all members of the community. This frame includes the following four Basic Emissions Generating Sources and Activities: • Use of electricity by the community • Use of natural gas in residential, commercial, and industrial stationary combustion equipment • On-road passenger and freight motor vehicle travel • Landfill gas emitted from the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Landfill The use of electricity by the community is an activity that results in emissions. The use of nabxral gas in stationary combustion equipment and the combustion of diesel and gasoline in motor vehicles are both sources of emissions and activities that results in emissions. The City of Dubuque may have significant influence over some of these emissions,but it may also have little influence over others. The graphic below illustrates the scope of these sources and activities. 14 �f � � Smpe 2 Scope 7 INDIRECT OIRECT � Scope 3 Scope 3 � IN�IRECT INDIRECT 9� � �.,�.9aPo,.9�o,o.,,,.. � � a`�d'�� ,ea,e,a, � �`me�� soa � ,� �� a�ti� � m a�a �� m��9 � o�ao�a°a' � � f.a�.�,e. ,�ti�� A e�=�°��,om � � ��,e asse� °;d�P�ro°°o°� �'°� o�� DofLk o craJo�. metlpmPau2 When used for comparison across communities,this framewark is helpful in illustrating relative urban efficiencies. Tables 3 through 7 and Figures 2 through 6 summarize emissions from community-wide sources and activities far the years 2014 through 2018,respectively. 15 Table 3:2014 Community-Wide GHG Emissions by5ource/Activity � � 1 • � • • Residential Use of 205,760,247 kWh 131,629 Electricit Commercial Use of 176,750,498 kWh 113,071 Electricit Industrial Use of 359,083,104 kWh 229,712 Electricit Residential Natural Gas 22,717,086 Therms 120,215 Commercial Natural Gas 18,647,626 Therms 98,680 Industrial Natural Gas 14,745,186 Therms 65,778 On-road Vehicle Travel 367,124,000 VMT 168,586 Landfill Gas 1,296.5 MT CHq 36,302 � � �� Fig. 2:2014 GHG Inventory for communify of Dubuque, IA (MT CO2e) 36,302 -4% 131,629 - 14% 168,586 -17% ■Res Elec ■Com Elec 113,071- ■Ind Elec 12% ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG ■Transportation ■LFG 98,680 -10� 229,712 - 24% 120,215 - 12% 16 Table 4:2015 Community-Wide GHG Emissions by5ource/Activity � � 1 • � • • Residential Use of 182,341,680 kWh 99,839 Electricit Commercial Use of 167,783,347 kWh 91,868 Electricit Industrial Use of 283,291,479 kWh 155,114 Electricit Residential Natural Gas 18,434,566 Therxns 97,553 Commercial Natural 16,726,091 Therxns 88,512 Gas Industrial Natural Gas 11,551,593 Therxns 60,096 On-road Vehicle Travel 373,289,000 VMT 167,728 Landfill Gas 1,849A MT CHq 51,782 � � : � Fig. 3:2015 GHG Inventory for communify of Dubuque, IA (MT CO2e) 51,782 - 6% 99,839 - 12% ■Res Elec 167,728 - ■Com Elec 21p 1,868 - 11% ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG 6�,.. ■Transportation i5,114 - ■LFG ` 19% ` 88,512 - 11% 97,553 - 12% 17 Table 5:2016 Community-Wide GHG Emissions by5ource/Activity � � 1 • � • • Residential Use of 164,600,505 kWh 74,953 Electricit Commercial Use of 156,521,679 kWh 71,274 Electricit Industrial Use of 277,700,553 kWh 126,454 Electricit Residential Natural Gas 17,095,678 Therxns 90,467 Commercial Natural 15,746,976 Therxns 83,330 Gas Industrial Natural Gas 12,180,868 Therxns 55,853 On-road Vehicle Travel 372,921,000 VMT 167,037 Landfill Gas 1,575.3 MT CHa 44,109 Fig. 4:2016 GHG Inventory for communify of Dubuque, IA (MT CO2e) 44,109 - 6% 74,953 -10% ■Res Elec 71,274 - 10% 167,037 - ■ComElec 23p ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG 126,454- 18% ■Transportation ■LFG 83,330 - 12% 90,467 - 13% 18 Table 6:2017 Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions by Source/Activity � � 1 • � • • Residential Use of 178,723,502 kWh 81,384 Electricit Commercial Use of 170,842,390 kWh 77,795 Electricit Industrial Use of 294,858,079 kWh 134,267 Electricit Residential Natural Gas 18,032,763 Therxns 95,426 Commercial Natural 16,461,401 Therxns 87,111 Gas Industrial Natural Gas 11,278,833 Therxns 59,505 On-road Vehicle Travel 376,066,000 VMT 168,446 Landfill Gas 1,918.6 MT CHq 53,721 Fig. 5:2017 GHG Inventory for communify of Dubuque, IA (MT CO2e) 53,721 - 7% 81,384 - 11% ■Res Elec 77,795 - 10% ■ComElec 168,446 - 22% ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG ■Transportation ■LFG 87,111-11% 95,426 - 13% 19 Table 7:2018 Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions by Source/Activity � � 1 • � • • Residential Use of 195,081,128 kWh 88,832 Electricity Commercial Use of 179,506,618 kWh 81,740 Electricity Industrial Use of 302,241,519 kWh 137,629 Electricity Residential Natural Gas 21,554,718 Therxns 114,064 Commercial Natural 18,685,052 Therxns 98,878 Gas Industrial Natural Gas 12,628,187 Therxns 66,826 On-road Vehicle Travel 373,133,000 VMT 167,132 Landfill Gas 2,296.6 MT CHq 64,305 � � : ' I � Fig. 6:2018 GHG Inventory for communify of Dubuque, IA (MT CO2e) 64,305 -8% gg,g32 - 11% ■Res Elec 81,740 - 10% ■ComElec 167,132 - 20% ■Ind Elec ■Res NG ■Com NG Ind NG 137,629 - 17% ■Transportation ■LFG 98,878 -12% 114,064 - 14% 20 Fig. 7:Dubuque Community wide GHG Emissions Inventories by year(MT CO2e) 1,200,000 1,000,000 ■Sum of LFG 80Q000 ■Sum of Transportation Sum of Ind NG 60Q000 ■Sum of Com NG ■Sum of Res NG 40Q000 Sum of Ind Elec ■Sum of Com Elec 20Q000 ■Sum of Res Elec 0 2003 2007 2009 2010 20ll 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 BUSINESS-AS-USUAL FORECAST To illustrate the potential emissions growth based on projected population growth of 0.1965%annually from the 2003 baseline year going forward and an average annual rate of change in electricity grid carbon intensity of-6.1%,the City of Dubuque conducted a business-as-usual emissions forecast far the year 2030. Under this scenario with the only the aforementioned growth factors applied,the City of Dubuque's emissions are projected to shrink by approximately 43.2%by the year 2030, from 1,122,597 to 638,024 MT CO2e. Table 8 and Figure 8 below show the results of the forecast. The decrease in emissions from residential, commercial, and industrial energy use can primarily be attributed to the grid electricity emissions. These emissions are projected to decrease because the percentage of electricity generated by renewable resources is increasing at a considerable rate and the percentage generated by fossil fuels is decreasing. The population growth rate factor used is the average annual rate of change in population far the City of Dubuque from 2014 to 2017 using data obtained from the City of Dubuque. Rate of change of carbon intensity factors was estimated from the average annual rate of change in carbon intensity factors far the state of Iowa from 2007 to 2016 that were obtained from the EPA's Emissions and Generating Resource Integrated Database(eGRID). 21 Table 8: Dubuque Community-Wide Activity GHG Emissions Business-As-Usual Forecast � II � I I � ' � � � . � . II � I I Residential Energy 295,023 152,504 -48.3% Commercial Energy 177,313 104,825 -40.9% Industrial Energy 398,061 114,769 -71.2% On-road Vehicle Travel 169,881 179,127 +5.4% Landfill Gas 82,319 86,799 +5.4% � � � � : I ' � Fig. 8:Dubuque Community wide GHG Emissions Business-As-Usual Forecast 1,2501< 1,OOOk � c O � 750k v E v SOOk N O - � U 250k 0 2003 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 � Residential Energy � Commercial Energy � Industrial Energy Solid Waste Transportation & Mobile Sources — Original Forecast 22 CONCLUSION The Dubuque community has achieved a 27%reduction in emissions,putting them on track to meet their 50%by 2030 target In 2019, an initiative to update the 50%by 2030 Plan is moving forward and will review available science and add adaption and equity strategies. Emissions reduction strategies to consider far the climate action plan include energy efficiency, renewable energy,vehicle fuel efficiency, alternative transportation,vehicle trip reduction, land use and transit planning, and waste reduction among others. All of these sectors will be impartant to focus on in Dubuque's Climate Action Planning update process. Through these efforts and others the city of Dubuque can achieve additional benefits beyond reducing emissions, including saving money and improving Dubuque's economic vitality and its quality of life. Dubuque should continue to track key energy use and emissions indicators on an on-going basis. ICLEI recommends completing a re-inventory at least every five years to measure emissions reduction progress. 23