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Dubuque Greenhouse Gas Inventory Base Line for Climate Action Plan Creation
Masterpiece on the Mississippi TO: The Honorable Mayor and City Council Members FROM: Michael C. Van Milligen, City Manager SUBJECT: Acceptance of Dubuque Greenhouse Gas Inventory as Baseline for Climate Action Plan Creation DATE: July 14, 2010 Dubuque All - America City ii [1 2007 Sustainable Community Coordinator Cori Burbach is transmitting Dubuque's Greenhouse Gas inventory and recommending that the City Council schedule a Work Session on the Greenhouse Gas Inventory to explore the establishment of a municipal Climate Action Plan. I concur with the recommendation and respectfully request Mayor and City Council approval. /- MicK"ael C. Van Milligen MCVM:jh Attachment cc: Barry Lindahl, City Attorney Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager Cori Burbach, Sustainable Community Coordinator Masterpiece on the Mississippi TO: Michael Van Milligen, City Manager FROM: Cori Burbach, Sustainability Coordinator SUBJECT: Acceptance of Dubuque Greenhouse Gas Inventory as Baseline for Climate Action Plan Creation DATE: July 12, 2010 2007 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this memo is to introduce to the City Council Dubuque's Greenhouse Gas Inventory, request their approval of the document, and detail a plan to use this Inventory to draft a municipal Climate Action Plan (CAP). BACKGROUND In 2006, Mayor Roy Buol signed on to the U. S. Conference of Mayors Climate Action Agreement in support of the Kyoto Protocol to Reduce Global Warming. The signers of this pledge commit to reducing their emissions by 7% from 1990 levels by 2012. Each year since, the Mayor and City Council have identified being designated a Sustainable City as one of their top priorities for our community. In February 2010, the City Council approved the vision statement formulated by the Sustainable Dubuque Task Force that, "Dubuque is a viable, livable and equitable community. We embrace economic prosperity, environmental integrity, and social /cultural vibrancy to create a sustainable legacy for generations to come." As part of its efforts to become more sustainable, the City of Dubuque joined ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability. ICLEI, an international organization of over 1,000 cities, provides guidelines, tools and technical support to facilitate local governments' efforts to achieve climate protection goals and create more sustainable communities. ICLEI defines a Five Milestones for Climate Protection process for local governments to follow. 1. Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts. 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target. 3. Develop a local climate action plan. 4. Implement policies and measures. 5. Monitor and verify results. The attached Inventory was completed by City staff and Green Dubuque members Theothoros Gianakouros and Jason Schatz. Baseline data was collected for municipal facilities and operations for 2003, the first date that all relevant data could be collected, and 2007. A similar, though slightly less complete community inventory was also completed and will be presented to Council at a future date. DISCUSSION The adoption of a CAP is an important step in helping the City of Dubuque organization to achieve the Sustainable Dubuque vision. While future reports will recommend community action, this document will identify practices and projects that will help the City operate more sustainably, and performance measures to track our progress. In addition to contributing to global environmental solutions, Dubuque's CAP will help contribute to our community's economic prosperity, environmental integrity, and social /cultural vibrancy: • Economic prosperity: Plans will include development of local energy sources, opportunities for green jobs, emphasis on a local economy, and a more efficient transportation system. • Environmental integrity: Actions will create cleaner air, water and soil; minimize waste; and promote green space and healthy ecosystems. • Social /cultural vibrancy: When implemented, the CAP will assist in reducing traffic congestion, improving the health and safety of residents, providing a sense of community, and showcasing Dubuque's commitment to sustainability. The attached Greenhouse Gas Inventory measures the emissions of six internationally recognized greenhouse gases regulated under the Kyoto Protocol, as well as criteria air pollutants regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act. Dubuque's municipal government operations generated 80,084 and 86,080 tonnes CO2e in 2003 and 2007, respectively. Fugitive methane emissions from the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA) constituted over 2/3 of the total, with water delivery (11%), wastewater treatment (7 %), and city buildings and facilities (6 %) following. The Inventory predicts future emissions that would result from no change in action as compared to the 2003 baseline. Following receipt of this document, staff propose developing a reduction target and CAP with the input of the City Council and public. A proposed timeline would be as follows: • July 19, 2010: Receive and file GHG Inventory • Fall 2010: City Council work session to explore potential targets and impact of a variety of actions to reach those goals • Fall- Winter 2010: Gather public input on CAP drafted by City staff • Winter 2010: City Council input and approval of CAP Following the adoption of the CAP, staff will present to City Council recommendations for policies and measures to achieve these goals and monitor the results of those actions. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends that the City Council receive and file the Greenhouse Gas Inventory and direct staff to set a Council Work Session to explore the establishment of a municipal Climate Action Plan. cc: Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager Paul Schultz, Resource Manager Theothoros Giannakouros, Green Dubuque Jason Schatz, Green Dubuque Justin Thiltgen, Dubuque 2.0 Jonathan Brown, Water Pollution Control Plant Manager Chuck Goddard, Dubuque Metropolitan Solid Waste Agency DUBUQUE, IOWA ;a. Prepared by: In association with: Dubuque, Iowa Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2010 Masterpiece 0,1 the Mississippi ICLEI L Local G overnments for Sustainability ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Dubuque City Council Roy D. Buol, Mayor Karla Braig Joyce Connors Ric Jones Kevin Lynch David Resnick Dirk Voetberg Barry Lindahl, City Attorney Jeanne Schneider, City Clerk Michael Van Milligen, City Manager Thank you to the following City staff and community partners who were primarily involved in the creation of this inventory: City of Dubuque Staff Cori Burbach, Sustainable Community Coordinator Paul Schultz, Resource Manager Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager Ken Tekippe, Finance Director Kelsey McElroy, Planning Intern Sheila Samuelson, Former Sustainable Community Coordinator City of Dubuque Management Team Community Partners Craig Clefisch, Alliant Energy Mark Ernst, Black Hills Energy Chandra Ravada, East Central Intergovernmental Association Candace Eudaley, East Central Intergovernmental Association Xico Manarolla, ICLEI Program Officer Brita Pagels, ICLEI Program Officer Special thanks to following individuals who collected and analyzed data and authored the City of Dubuque Greenhouse Gas Inventory in an effort to further the achievement of the Sustainable Dubuque vision: Theothoros Giannakouros Jason Schatz i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BACKGROUND Since 2006, the Dubuque City Council has identified becoming a designated Green Community as one of their top goals. In order to achieve this, Dubuque has adopted a holistic, three part approach to sustainability that focuses on Environmental & Ecological Integrity, Economic Prosperity, and Social & Cultural Vibrancy. As part of its vision for a sustainable future, the City has partnered with ICLEI -Local Governments for Sustainability. As an ICLEI member, the City of Dubuque is committed to achieving ICLEI's Five Milestones for Climate Protection: 1. Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts for both municipal activities and the community as a whole 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target 3. Develop a Local Climate Action Plan 4. Implement policies and measures 5. Monitor and verify results In order to achieve the first milestone, the City of Dubuque has completed a greenhouse gas inventory for 2003 and 2007 for, 1) Municipal government operations, and 2) Emissions for the Dubuque community as a whole. This inventory was created to assist City Council and staff in their planning and policy efforts as well as to inform and assist Dubuque citizens in leading sustainable lifestyles. In addition to mitigating climate change, initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions could have numerous economic, social, and environmental benefits for Dubuque, including invigorating the local economy; lowering energy consumption and utility bills; creating safer and more efficient transportation networks; increasing home resale values, attracting residents, visitors, and businesses to the city; improving air and water quality; improving waste management; improving health and safety; enhancing community connectivity and engagement; and enhancing natural beauty and aesthetics. METHODOLOGY The methods used to generate this inventory were consistent with ICLEI's Local Government Operations Protocol (v. 1.0). Data were compiled and analyzed using ICLEI's Clean Air and Climate Protection (CACP) software (CACP2009 v2.1). This inventory assessed the emissions of the six internationally recognized greenhouse gases regulated under the Kyoto Protocol: • Carbon dioxide (CO2) • Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) • Methane (CH4) • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) • Nitrous oxide (N20) • Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Facility Total Emissions (tonnes CO % of Total 2003 2007 2003 2007 Buildings 5,060 4,594 6% 6% Airport 619 907 1% 1% Water Delivery 8,673 7,157 11% 8% Streetlights /Signals 1,317 2,051 2% 2% Wastewater 5,514 6,885 7% 8% Solid Waste 54,466 59,643 68% 69% Public Transit 963 1,078 1% 1% Vehicle Fleet 2,341 2,628 3% 3% Employee Commute 427 432 1% 1% Refrigerants* 627 627 1% 1% Other 78 78 0.1% 0.1% Total 80,084 86,080 - - Greenhouse gas emissions from Dubuque municipal government operations were inventoried for both a baseline year (2003) and interim year (2007), which were the earliest and latest years, respectively, for which complete data were available. Data for the local government inventory was collected from various City departments, government institutions, and utilities. Several criteria air pollutants (CAPs) regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act were also estimated for municipal government activities. Finally, emissions forecasts for municipal government operations from 2007 to 2050 were derived from measured emissions trends from 2003 to 2007. RESULTS & DISCUSSION Dubuque municipal government operations generated 80,084 and 86,080 tonnes CO2e in 2003 and 2007, respectively (Table ES1). In both years, fugitive methane emissions from the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA) landfill constituted over 2 /3 of the total. Carbon dioxide accounted for the bulk of remaining emissions (Table ES1). In 2003, water delivery (11 %), wastewater treatment (7 %), city buildings & facilities (6 %), city fleet vehicles (3 %), streetlights & traffic signals (2 %), refrigerants (1 %), airport operations (1 %), buses & public transit (1 %), and employee commuting ( <1 %) accounted for the remainder of emissions. In 2007, water delivery (8 %), wastewater treatment (8 %), city buildings & facilities (5 %) city fleet vehicles (3 %), streetlights & traffic signals (2 %), refrigerants (1 %), airport operations (1 %), buses & public transit (1 %), and employee commuting (<1%) accounted for the remainder of total emissions (Table ES1). Table ES1. Total greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes of total emissions iii Based on 2003 to 2007 trends, Dubuque municipal government emissions will be 90,577 tonnes CO2e in 2010, an increase of 13% over 2003 emissions (Fig. ES1). If those trends continue, City operations will emit 98,072 tonnes in 2015, 113,062 tonnes in 2025, and 150,537 tonnes in 2050, which would represent an 88% increase over 2003 levels. 160,000 • • Business as usual 150,537 140,000 2003 levels ,,..- 120,000- 113,062 . *- 98,072 * * *••• * 100,000- *,.• 90,577, *. 80,000 80,084 80,084 80,084 80,084 60,000 - 40,000 - 20,000 - 0 , 1 1, 1, 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1( 1 2003 2007 2010 2015 Figure ES1. Projected future greenhouse gas emissions trends from 2007 to 2050 for Dubuque municipal government operations under current trends (business as usual). 2003 levels are included for comparison. CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS Criteria air pollutants are common air pollutants regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act. These pollutants can threaten human and environmental health, cause property damage, and impair ecosystem services. Emissions of each pollutant in Dubuque is estimated to have decreased slightly from 2003 to 2007, which follows national air quality improvements resulting largely from advances in industrial and emissions technologies. NEXT STEPS 2025 1 I I I I I I I I 2050 The third milestone in ICLEI's climate protection strategy is the development of a local Climate Action Plan. Dubuque's Climate Action Plan will detail concrete steps by which Dubuque City government operations can reach their greenhouse gas emission targets. ICLEI recommends that a city's action plan combines measures that are already in place as well as proposed measures that will fulfill the remainder of its reduction goals. Implementation strategies will also be discussed, including costs, funding sources, time frames, and economic, environmental, and social benefits. Strategies will be modeled on measures taken by other communities, recommendations by ICLEI, and innovative solutions uniquely suited to Dubuque. Early indicators suggest that the City of Dubuque's proactive approach to sustainability will allow for a relatively ambitious GHG reduction strategy. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF FIGURES x 1. Sustainability in Dubuque 1 1.1. Background 1 1.2. Partnerships 2 2. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory 3 2.1. Dubuque's Partnership with ICLEI 3 2.2. Benefits for Dubuque 4 2.2.1. Economic Prosperity 4 2.2.2. Environmental & Ecological Integrity 5 2.2.3. Social & Cultural Vibrancy 6 2.3. Methods 7 2.4. Results and Discussion 9 2.4.1. Base Year Emissions: 2003 9 2.4.2. Interval Year Emissions: 2007 12 2.4.3. Comparing 2003 and 2007 Emissions 12 2.4.4. Projected Future Emissions 14 3. Criteria Air Pollutants 15 3.1. Introduction 15 3.2. Criteria Air Pollutant Emissions in Dubuque 15 4. Next Steps 17 4.1. Introduction 17 4.1. Setting Reduction Targets 17 4.2. Developing a Climate Action Plan 18 5. Global Climate Change 19 5.1. The Greenhouse Effect 19 5.2. Current Climate Change 20 5.3. Global Consequences of Climate Change 20 5.4. Climate Change in the Midwest 22 5.4.1. Temperature 22 5.4.2. Precipitation 23 5.5. Mitigation 23 APPENDIX A— Data Sources 24 APPENDIX B — Notes and Assumptions 26 APPENDIX C — City of Dubuque Profile 28 APPENDIX D — Credits and Citations 29 APPENDIX E — Emissions by Scope 30 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1. 11 key principles for creating a sustainable community identified by Dubuque citizens 1 Table 2. Global warming potentials of six major greenhouse gases 9 Table 3A. CO2, N20, and CH4 emissions from various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes of total emissions 10 Table 3B. CO2, N20, and CH emissions from various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes CO2e 10 Table 4. Sources, characteristics, and impacts to human health and the environment of criteria air pollutants inventoried for Dubuque, Iowa 15 Table 5. Criteria air pollutant emissions in 2003 and 2007 from various sectors of Dubuque's municipal government operations 16 Table 6. CO reduction targets of sample ICLEI communities 17 Table 7. Some predicted impacts of climate change detailed by the IPCC Assessment Report IV 21 Table El. Greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors of Dubuque municipal government operations in 2003 and 2007 reported by scope 30 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1A -D. Percent of total municipal government greenhouse gas emissions contributed by each sector in 2003 and 2007 11 Figure 2. Average percent annual change in emissions from 2003 to 2007 in various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque 13 Figure 3. Projected future greenhouse gas emissions trends from 2007 to 2050 for Dubuque municipal government operations under current trends 14 Figure 4. Hypothetical estimates of greenhouse gas emission trajectories from 2003 -2050 based on business as usual, 2003 levels, and emissions reductions due to implementing methane capture at the DMASWA landfill and renovations of the water pollution control plant 18 Figure 5. The greenhouse effect 19 Figure 6. Predicted changes to Illinois summer temperature and precipitation. 22 Figure 7. Predicted increases in temperature in Iowa by mid- century and the end of the century in a high emissions scenario and a low emissions scenario 22 Figure 8. Predicted seasonal percent change in precipitation by the end of the century (2080 -2099) for Iowa under high and low emissions scenarios 23 Figure El. Visual representation of scopes. 30 vii 1. SUSTAINABILITY IN DUBUQUE 1.1. BACKGROUND Since 2006, the Dubuque City Council has identified becoming a designated Green Community as one of their top goals. In order to achieve this, Dubuque has adopted a holistic, three part approach to sustainability that focuses on Environmental & Ecological Integrity, Economic Prosperity, and Social & Cultural Vibrancy. Under those three domains of sustainability, Dubuque citizens have identified 11 key principles for creating a sustainable community (Table 1). Sustainability A community's ability to meet the environmental, economic, and social equity needs of today without reducing the ability of future generations to meet their needs. City of Dub uque, 2009 1 Environmental issues are often global in scope, but the actions necessary to meet those challenges will ultimately be taken at the local level by communities and individuals. Local grassroots efforts are absolutely necessary to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. Dubuque has embraced this principle through several community engagement initiatives, including a citizen sustainability task force and Dubuque 2.0, which encourages public /private partnerships to shape our community's sustainable future. Table 1. 11 key principles for creating a sustainable community identified by Dubuque citizens. Economic Prosperity % reen uildings Healthy Air Regional Economy Smart Energy Use Resource Manageme Community Design Social & Cultural Vibrancy Healthy Local Foot ommunit nowledg I Reasonable Mobility Environmental Integrity n Clean Water 1 Native Plants & Animals 1.2. PARTNERSHIPS As part of its vision for a sustainable future, the City of Dubuque has established partnerships with leading local, national, and international organizations committed to facilitating local sustainability efforts, including: • Climate Communities, a national coalition of local governments created to leverage federal policy and funding for local initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emission and promoting sustainable, self reliant communities. • ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, an international association of local governments as well as national and regional local government organizations that have made a commitment to sustainable development. • The Mayor's Climate Protection Agreement, through which hundreds of mayors from cities across the country committed to efforts to meet or exceed the goals of the Kyoto Protocol. • Dubuque 2.0, a local initiative that facilitates public /private partnerships between local businesses, non - profits, and government organizations and recognizes their importance in achieving a sustainable community. Downtown Dubuque and the Mississippi River. ,, SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE M A T E COMMUNITIES ICLEI L.. Local Governments for Sustainability dubuque 2 2 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INVENTORY 2.1. DUBUQUE'S PARTNERSHIP WITH ICLEI 3 This inventory was created to assist City Council and staff in their planning and policy efforts as well as to inform and assist Dubuque citizens in leading sustainable lifestyles. In order to guide its sustainability efforts, in 2007 Dubuque became a member of ICLEI -Local Governments for Sustainability. ICLEI is an international organization of local governments committed to climate protection and environmental sustainability. ICLEI was established in 1990 and has grown to include over 1,000 cities across the world, including over 550 in the United States. ICLEI provides guidelines, tools, and technical support to facilitate local governmental efforts to achieve strong climate protection goals and create cleaner, healthier, economically viable communities. In 2005 alone, ICLEI reported helping local governments reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 23 million tons and saving about $600 million in annual cumulative savings, largely on energy expenditures. This report achieves the first of ICLEI's Five Milestones for Climate Protection to which the city has committed: Dubuque Town Clock 1. Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts for both municipal activities and the community as a whole 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target 3. Develop a local climate action plan 4. Implement policies and measures 5. Monitor and verify results Milestones two and three will be achieved in a forthcoming report on emissions reduction targets and strategies for the City of Dubuque. Based on those goals and strategies, the fourth and fifth milestones will be ongoing efforts within Dubuque's comprehensive framework for achieving a more sustainable community. 2.2. BENEFITS FOR DUBUQUE In addition to contributing to global environmental solutions, the steps Dubuque takes to mitigate climate change will have numerous local benefits by contributing to Dubuque's Economic Prosperity, Environmental & Ecological Integrity, and Social & Cultural Vibrancy. 2.2.1. Economic Prosperity • Development of local, independent energy sources creates local jobs and keeps dollars circulating locally. • Emphasis on the local economy (e.g. buying local goods, manufacturing from local secondary /recycled materials) keeps dollars circulating in the community and improves local economic resiliency. • Improved energy efficiency reduces government operation costs and reduces utility bills for residents. • Improved fuel efficiency and decreased driving miles reduce fuel and vehicle maintenance costs. • Improved transportation networks and accessibility will allow more people to reach employment, commerce, and recreation opportunities. This can increase increase local commerce, improve commuter safety, reduce worker absenteeism, and expand the labor pool, particularly with people who cannot drive or afford personal vehicles. • Makes Dubuque more attractive to visitors, prospective college students, and other potential Dubuque residents. • Increased home resale values associated with developing the City's transportation infrastructure, operations, aesthetics, and cultural vibrancy. • Getting a head start on GHG emission reductions by documenting early actions to reduce GHG emissions, which may be accepted by future regulatory programs. 4 2.2.2. Environmental & Ecological Integrity 5 • Cleaner air, water, and soil resulting from decreased local and regional vehicle and power plant emissions. Motor vehicles are the largest source of urban air pollution. In addition to CO2, cars emit many harmful air pollutants. Emissions from U.S. motor vehicles are estimated to cause 40,000 premature deaths and 20,000- 46,000 cases of chronic respiratory illness per year. Particulate matter and other air pollutants from vehicle and power plant emissions also degrade soil and water quality. So, reducing CO2 emissions also improves the quality of our air, water, and soil. • Waste minimization by recycling, composting, and other strategies will improve soil and water quality, stimulate local economic activity, and reduce local and upstream generation of carbon and other waste products. • Reduced flood and drought risk as climate impacts are reduced. • Development of local green space and healthy ecosystems will increase biodiversity and provide various ecosystem services, including improved soil and water quality, carbon sequestration, reduced albedo, decreased urban heat island effect, aesthetic benefits, and improved recreational opportunities for residents and visitors. 2.2.3. Social & Cultural Vibrancy • Development of a full suite of safe, convenient, and affordable transportation ' •�± options. • Reduced traffic congestion, which improves neighborhood livability, commute times, safety of motorists and pedestrians, and saves on fuel and vehicle maintenance costs. • Improved health and safety through cleaner air, safer roads for cyclists, pedestrians & motorists, and promoting healthier forms of transportation (e.g. walking and bicycling). Dubuque Farmers Market Dubuque Arboretum & Botanical Gardens • Improved beauty and natural aesthetics, which studies have consistently associated with improved physical and emotional health and wellness. • Provides sense of community purpose and engagement, social connections, and satisfaction through community service opportunities, community connectivity, and increased opportunities for local recreation and cultural experiences. • Showcases Dubuque's commitment to environmental, cultural, and economic sustainability as well is its engagement with important local and global issues. 6 2.3. METHODS The methods used to generate this inventory were consistent with ICLEI's Local Government Operations Protocol (v. 1.0). Data were compiled and analyzed using ICLEI's Clean Air and Climate Protection (CACP) software (CACP2009 v2.1). This inventory assesses the emissions of the six internationally recognized greenhouse gases regulated under the Kyoto Protocol: 7 • Carbon dioxide (CO • Methane (CH4) • Nitrous oxide (N20) • Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) • Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) • Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) In order to account for direct and indirect emissions, improve transparency, and facilitate local climate actions, ICLEI requires reporting emissions by "scope." Together, the three scopes provide a comprehensive accounting framework for managing and reducing direct and indirect emissions. Appendix E contains emission data classified by scope. • Scope 1: All direct GHG emissions, except for direct biogenic CO2 emissions. • Scope 2: Indirect GHG emissions associated with the consumption of purchased or acquired electricity, steam, heating, or cooling. • Scope 3: All other indirect emissions not covered in Scope 2, such as emissions resulting from the extraction and production of purchased materials and fuels, transport related activities in vehicles not owned or controlled by the reporting entity (e.g. employee commuting and business travel), outsourced activities, or waste disposal. Greenhouse gas emissions were inventoried for both a baseline and interim year. ICLEI suggests selecting the earliest possible baseline year in order to assess recent emissions trends and account for the emissions benefits of recent actions; 2003 was selected as the earliest year for which complete records were readily available. The interim year is a recent year that is used to assess both recent emissions trends and as a performance datum for future inventories; 2007 was selected as the most recent year for which complete records were available. This inventory accounts for greenhouse gas emissions from the following sectors of Dubuque's municipal government operations, including: • Buildings and other facilities • Streetlights & traffic signals • Water delivery • Wastewater facilities • Airport facilities • Public transit • City vehicle fleet • Solid waste facilities (landfill) • Employee commute • Other processes and fugitive emissions • Port facilities (N /A for Dubuque) • Power generation facilities (N /A for Dubuque) Building and facility emissions included direct emissions and energy consumption associated with heating, cooling, and daily operations within city office space, police and fire stations, recreation and cultural facilities, city warehouses and storage facilities, and other facilities under city control. Data were collected from various City departments, local governmental and intergovernmental institutions, and utilities. Data sources are listed in Appendix A. Notes and assumptions used to complete the inventory are detailed in Appendix B. Criteria Air Pollutants Several criteria air pollutants (CAPS) regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act were also estimated in this report. Nitrogen oxides (NO sulfur oxides (SO volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particulate matter (PM and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions were estimated using ICLEI's CACP2009 software as well as EPA data detailing direct CAP emissions from various local facilities and industries, including Alliant Energy's Dubuque Generating Station power plant. Emissions Forecasts Emissions forecasts for municipal government operations were derived from emissions trends between 2003 and 2007. 8 2.4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 2.4.1. Base Year Emissions: 2003 All Sectors Government operations for the City of Dubuque accounted for 80,084 tonnes CO2e in 2003 (Tables 3A -B). The greatest contribution came from methane (68 %) and carbon dioxide (31 %), with smaller contributions from HFC & PFC refrigerants, N20, and SF (<1% apiece). Virtually all methane originated from fugitive emissions from the 50% fraction of biodegradable /compostable materials buried at the landfill. The landfill is operated by the Dubuque Area Metropolitan Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA), which is an intergovernmental entity directed jointly by two representatives from the City of Dubuque and one representative from Dubuque County. DMASWA serves over 100,000 customers in Dubuque and Delaware counties (Iowa) and some of Grant (Wisconsin) and Jo Daviess (Illinois) counties and accounted for 68% of city government emissions (Fig 1A, C). For sectors other than the landfill, CO2 accounted for the bulk of emissions. the landfill, water delivery (11 %) and wastewater treatment (7 %) accounted for the next highest proportion of city government emissions, followed by energy consumed by city buildings (6 %) and fuel consumed by city fleet vehicles (3 %). Refrigerants (2 %), streetlights & traffic signals (2 %), airport operations (1 %), and fuel consumed by public transit (1 %) & employee commuting ( <1 %) accounted for smaller proportions of emissions (Tables 3A -B, Fig. 1A,C). Non - landfill Sectors: The relative contribution of non - landfill sectors is clearer when examined separately from landfill emissions. In the absence of landfill methane, water delivery and wastewater treatment accounted for 34% and 22 %, respectively, of remaining emissions. Energy consumed by city buildings (20 %) and fuel consumed by city fleet vehicles (9 %) also contributed ignificantly. Streetlights & traffic signals (5 %), public transit (4 %), airport operations (2 %), employee commuting (2 %), and refrigerants (2 %) accounted for smaller proportions of 2003 emissions (Fig. 1A,C). 9 Global warming potential (GWP) and CO2 equivalents (CO2e) are two related ways of expressing the warming potential of a greenhouse gas. GWP is the amount of warming caused by a greenhouse gas relative to the amount caused by CO2. CO2e represents the amount of CO2 that would cause the same amount of warming as a given amount and type of another greenhouse gas (Table 2). For example, methane (CH4) has 21 times the global warming potential as CO2, so 1 tonne CH4 is equal to 21 tonnes CO2e. Table 2. Global warming potentials of six major greenhouse gases. Common Name Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Sulphur hexafluoride Hydrofluorocarbons Perfluorocarbons Chemical Formula CO CH N SF HFCs PFCs GWP* 1 21i 320 23900 12 to 11700 (1000:) 7000 to 9200 (7450 ) * Global warming potential over 100-year timeframe 1 Over a 20 -year timeframe, CH4 has a GWP of 72 * Median values Source: ICLEI Local Gov. Operations Protocol (v.1.0, 2008) After Facility CO (tonnes CO N (tonnes CO CH (tonnes CO Total Emissions (tonnes CO % of Total 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 Buildings 5,027 4,573 28.5 17.7 4.6 3.8 5,060 4,594 6.3% 5.3% Airport 615 902 3.4 4.0 0.6 0.6 619 907 0.8% 1.1% Water Delivery 8.626 7.118 36.9 35.3 10.3 2.9 8.673 7,157 10.8% 8.3% Streetlights /Signals 1,307 2,040 9.9 10.5 0.6 0.7 1,317 2,051 1.6% 2.4% Wastewater 5,474 6,848 33.5 31.6 6.2 5.2 5,514 6,885 6.9% 8.0% Solid Waste 0 0 0.0 0.0 54,466 59,643 54,466 59,643 68.0% 69.3% Public Transit 961 1,075 1.9 3.1 0.2 0.1 963 1,078 1.2% 1.3 °x6 Vehicle Fleet 2.321 2,610 18.6 16.7 1.1 1.2 2,341 2,628 2.9% 3.1% Employee Commute 415 423 11.2 8.4 0.6 0.5 427 432 0.5% 0.5% Refrigerants' 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 627 627 0.8% 0.7% Other 78 78 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78 78 0.1% 0.1% Total _ 24,824 25,667 144 127 54,490 59,658 80,084 86,080 - - Facility CO (tonnes) N (tonnes) CH (tonnes) Total Emissions (tonnes CO % o$ Total 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 Buildings 5,027 4.573 0.09 0.06 0.22 0.18 5,060 4,594 6.3% 5.3% Airport 615 902 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.03 619 906 0.8% 1.1% Water Delivery 8,626 7.118 0.12 0.11 0.49 0.14 8,673 7,157 10.8% 8.3% Streetlights /Signals 1,307 2,040 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 1,317 2,052 1.6% 2.4% Wastewater 5,474 6,848 0.11 0.10 0.30 0.25 5,513 6,885 6.9% 8.0% Solid Waste 0 0 0 0 2,594 2,840 54,466 59,643 68.0% 69.3% Public Transit 961 1.075 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 963 1,078 1.2% 1.3% Vehicle Fleet 2,321 2.610 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.06 2,341 2,628 2.9% 3.1% Employee Commute 415 423 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.02 427 432 0.5% 0.5% Refrigerants' 0 0 0 0 0 0 627 627 0.8% 0.7% Other 78 78 0 0 0 0 78 78 0.1% 0.1% Total _ 24,824 25,667 0.46 0.41 2,595 2,841 80,084 86,080 - - o Table 3A. CO N and CH emissions from various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes of total emissions. *Refrigerants consisted of various HFCs and PFCs. Table 3B. CO2, N and CH4 emissions from various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque in 2003 and 2007 expressed Landfill methane emissions included Landfill methane emissions excluded A • Vehicle Fleet 9% © Public Transit 4% • Wastewater 22% • Solid Waste 68% 2003 ❑ Public Transit. Vehicle Fleet ❑ Airport • Buildings 1% 3% 1% 6% Refrigerants ❑ Water Delivery 11% 2003 C ❑ Employee Commute 2% • Airport 2% • Streetlights & Signals 2% II Wastewater 7% Employee Commute 1% • Buildings 20% • Refrigerants 2% ❑ Water Delivery 34% ❑ Public Transit 1% • Solid Waste 69% 2007 Vehicle Fleet ❑ Airport 3% 1% 2007 D ❑ Employee Commute L I Airpoll 2% 3% Buildings ■ Refrigerants 5% 1% Water Delivery 8% ® Streetlights & Signals 2% • Wastewater 8% ® Employee Commute 1% El Public Transit IN Vehicle Fleet 10% ❑ Water Delivery 27% Wastewater 26% • Buildings 17% • Refrigerants 2% 0 0 Streetlights & Signals 5% ! ; Streetlights & Signals 8% Figure 1A -D. Percent of total municipal government greenhouse gas emissions contributed by each sector in 2003 and 2007. 1A includes all emissions from 2003. 1B includes all emissions from 2007. 1C includes all emissions from 2003 except landfill methane emissions. 1D includes all emissions from 2007 except landfill methane emissions. 11 2.4.2. Interval Year Emissions: 2007 All Sectors: Local government operations for the City of Dubuque generated 86,080 tonnes CO in 2007. The greatest contribution came from methane (69 %) and carbon dioxide (30 %), with smaller contributions from N SF6, and HFC & PFC refrigerants (<1% apiece) (Table 3A -B). As in 2003, virtually all methane emissions originated from anaerobic decomposition processes at the DMASWA landfill facility, which accounted for 69% of city government emissions. (Fig. 1B,D) For sectors other than the landfill, CO2 accounted for the bulk of emissions. After the landfill, water delivery (8 %) and wastewater treatment (8 %) account for the next highest proportion of government emissions, followed by energy consumed by city buildings (5 %) and fuel consumed by city fleet vehicles (3 %). Streetlights & traffic signals (2 %), airport operations (1 %), refrigerants (1 %), and fuel consumed by public transit (1 %) & employee commuting (<1%) accounted for smaller proportions of total emissions (Fig. 1B,D). Non - landfill Sectors: The relative contribution of non - landfill sectors is clearer when examined separately from landfill emissions. In the absence of landfill methane, water delivery (27 %), wastewater treatment (26 %), and city buildings (17 %) accounted for the bulk of emissions. City fleet vehicles (10 %), streetlights & traffic signals (8 %), public transit (4 %), airport operations (3 %), employee commuting (2 %), and refrigerants (2 %) accounted for smaller proportions of 2007 emissions (Fig. 1B,D). 2.4.3. Comparing 2003 and 2007 Emissions Greenhouse emissions in Dubuque totaled 80,084 tonnes CO in 2003 and 86,080 tonnes in 2007, a 1.7% annual rate of increase (Fig. 2). In both 2003 and 2007, landfill methane emissions accounted for over 2 / 3 of emissions from government operations, increasing by approximately 2.2% annually. Emissions from almost every other sector also increased from 2003 to 2007, including streetlights and traffic signals ( +9.0 % /yr), airport operations ( +7.9 % /yr), wastewater treatment ( +5.0 % /yr), employee commuting ( +0.3 % /yr), and public transit & vehicle fleet emissions ( +2.7 % /yr, each) (Tables 3A -B). The data does not reveal specific reasons for these emissions increases; possibilities include addition of new facilities (e.g. new buildings, new streetlights) and increases in the use of existing operations and facilities (e.g. greater vehicle use, expanded hours, and increases in facility capacities). Only emissions from the water delivery sector (- 5.3 % /yr) and city buildings (- 2.5 % /yr) decreased from 2003 to 2007. It is not clear why emissions declined over this period, but possibilities include alterations in facilities operations and efficiency and changes in energy usage. Due to limited records, refrigerant emissions were assumed to be constant between both years. 12 Figure 2. Average percent annual change in emissions from 2003 to 2007 in various sectors of municipal government operations in the City of Dubuque. 13 10.0% 8.0% - 6.0% - 4.0% - 2.0% - 0.0% -2.0% - -4.0% - - 6.0% - -2.5% 7.9% -5.3% 9.0% 5.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 0.3% yes 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% - 8.0% i ■ 1 1 1 i ■ L Buildings Airport Water Street- Waste- Solid Public Vehicle Employee Refriger- Other Total Delivery lights & water Waste Transit Fleet Commute ants Signals 2.4.4. Projected Future Emissions Emissions estimates from 2007 to 2050 were based on the differences between 2003 and 2007 emissions. While this is not a robust procedure for making accurate projections, it does provide a basic estimate of future emissions and underscores the urgency of acting to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change. Based on 2003 to 2007 trends, Dubuque municipal government operations will be 90,577 tonnes CO2e in 2010, an increase of 13% over 2003 emissions. If those trends continue, City operations will emit 98,072 tonnes in 2015, 113,062 tonnes in 2025, and 150,537 tonnes in 2050, which would represent an 88% increase in emissions over 2003 levels (Fig. 3). 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 • • • Business as usual — 2003 levels . 98,072,..- •''''' 90,577,.s* . y , R . 113,062.,,.••`' ....... • `... 150,537 F'a . � aaa .... , yaa. ..... 80,084 80,084 80,084 80,084 , 1 1 1 1 11111111111i 1 I I I I I 1 1 I 1 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 i 1 1 1 2003 2007 2010 2015 2025 2050 Figure 3. Projected future greenhouse gas emissions trends from 2007 to 2050 for Dubuque municipal government operations under current trends (business as usual). 2003 levels are included for comparison. 14 Pollutant Sources & characteristics Health & environmental impacts Nitrogen oxides (No Originates during fuel burning (e.g. fossil fuels) in automobiles, factories, power plants, and residences Aggravates respiratory problems. Long terms exposure can permanently damage lung structure. Impairs water quality and contributes to acid rain Sulfur oxddes (Sox) Formed from burning of sulfur- containing fuels, especially coal and oil, as well as various industrial processes Exposure can create or exacerbate heart and respiratory problems, especially in children and the elderly, and can lead to premature death. High atmospheric concentrations reduce visibility and are a primary cause of acid rain Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) VOCs are compounds that can become gaseous at room temperature and originate from household and commercial products, industrial processes, and fuels Short term exposure can create eye, nose, and throat irritation. Longer term exposure can cause neurological problems and increased lung cancer risk Particulate Matter (PM.) Particulate matter and dust, often from construction sites, unpaved roads, farm fields, fossil fuel combustion, and fires Aggravates or creates respiratory and heart problems. Carbon monoxide (CO) Originates primarily from exhaust from vehicles and other combustion engines, but also industrial processes and wood burning Aggravates and creates respiratory and heart problems. Exposure to high levels can lead to neurological problems and death 3. CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANTS 3.1. INTRODUCTION Criteria air pollutants (CAPs) are common air pollutants regulated by the EPA under the Clean Air Act. These pollutants can harm human and environmental health, cause property damage, and impair ecosystem services (Table 4). The EPA calls these pollutants "criteria" air pollutants because their regulation is based on human health or environmentally - based criteria. Table 4. Sources, characteristics, and impacts to human health and the environment of criteria air pollutants inventoried for Dubuque, Iowa. 3.2. CRITERIA AIR POLLUTANT EMISSIONS IN DUBUQUE Criteria air pollutant emissions caused by Dubuque municipal government operations are detailed in Table 5. Each pollutant is estimated to have decreased from 2003 to 2007, which follows national air quality improvements resulting largely from advances in industrial and emissions technologies. 15 Facility NO x (tonnes) SO (tonnes) CO tonne VOC (tonnes) PM 10 (tonnes) 2003 200 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 Buildings 13.2 8.5 29.0 14.6 2.4 1.8 N d) CO N 4n Iti 9 roroco999 Airport 1.5 1.5 3.5 3.4 0.3 0.3 Water Delivery 18.6 12.2 36.3 30.7 3.6 2.3 Streetlights & Signals 3.7 3.5 10.5 9.3 0.6 0.7 Wastewater 42.0 33.1 33.7 27.0 8.5 6.9 CO eV N Cr) CJ Public Transit 8.6 9.3 0.3 0.3 6.6 8.2 Vehicle Fleet 13.3 15.3 0.5 0.6 36.9 37.4 Employee Commute 1.2 1.1 0.1 0.1 12.7 13.1 Total 102.1 84.6 113.9 85.9 71.6 70.7 9.9 9.2 9.6 8.1 I Table 5. Criteria air pollutant emissions in 2003 and 2007 from various sectors of Dubuque's municipal government operations. 4. NEXT STEPS 4.1 INTRODUCTION As an ICLEI member, the City of Dubuque is committed to achieving ICLEI's Five Milestones for Climate Protection: 1. Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts for both municipal activities and the community as a whole 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target 3. Develop a local climate action plan 4. Implement policies and measures 5. Monitor and verify results This report fulfills Milestone One. A forthcoming report will address Milestones Two and Three: Adopting an Emissions Target and Developing a Local Climate Action Plan. 4.2. SETTING REDUCTION TARGETS The greenhouse gas emissions reduction target represents a specific quantified emissions reduction goal from the base year (2003) to a target year in the future. Setting a reduction target creates a specific, concrete goal around which an actionable reduction strategy can be structured. Most ICLEI communities have established 15 -20 year time frames for meeting emissions goals (Table 6), with interim targets every 2 -3 years to help ensure continued progress toward climate protection. Table 6. CO2 reduction targets of sample ICLEI communities. Table reproduced from ICLEI's LGOP v 1.0. 17 Jurisdiction % Below Baseline Emissions Target Year Austin, TX 10 -20% 2010 Berkely, CA 15% 2010 Burien, WA 10% 2010 Burlington, VT 10% 2005 Chula Vista, CA 20% 2010 Durham, NC 5% 2025 Hillsborough Co., FL 20% 2010 Miami -Dade Co., FL 20% 2005 Minneapolis, MN 20% 2005 Oakland, CA 15% 2010 Portland, OR 20% 2010 Saint Paul, MN 20% 2005 Takoma Park, MD 20% 2010 Toledo, OH 20% 2020 Tucson, AZ 20% 2010 4.3. DEVELOPING A CLIMATE ACTION PLAN The third milestone in ICLEI's climate protection strategy is the development of a local Climate Action Plan. Dubuque's Climate Action Plan will detail concrete steps by which City government operations can reach their greenhouse gas emission targets. ICLEI recommends that a city's action plan combines measures that are already in place as well as proposed measures that will fulfill the remainder of its reduction goals. Implementation strategies will also be discussed, including costs, funding sources, time frames, and economic, environmental, and social benefits. Strategies will be modeled on measures taken by other communities, recommendations by ICLEI, and innovative solutions uniquely suited to Dubuque. Early indicators suggest that the City of Dubuque's proactive approach to sustainability will allow for a relatively ambitious GHG reduction strategy. Examples of local government leadership in greenhouse gas reduction include methane capture at the DMASWA landfill and renovations of the Water Pollution Control Plant, both of which could be completed within the next 5 -10 years. These projects alone could reduce government emissions by up to 40% below business -as -usual levels (Fig. 4). These estimates are preliminary, not concrete predictions, and should be considered merely as illustrations of the impact of possible future reductions. Other examples of ongoing local initiatives include the IBM Smarter City Initiative; Blackhills Energy Corporation's Weatherization Challenge; Alliant Energy's free home energy audits and rebate programs; and the ECIA Petal Project. Through those programs, future initiatives, and strong government and community partnerships, the City of Dubuque intends to establish itself as a leader in local and global sustainability. 160,000 140,000 1 20,000 - 100,000- 0 60,000- 40,000 20,000- - - Business as usual "O' Forthcoming reductions 2003 levels 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1 , 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 F 1 1/ 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 2003 2010 2015 2025 Year Figure 4. Hypothetical estimates of greenhouse gas emission trajectories from 2003 -2050 based on business as usual, 2003 levels, and emissions reductions due to implementing methane capture at the DMASWA landfill (assumed reduction 50 %) and renovations to the water pollution control plant (assumed reduction of 50 %). Changes were assumed to occur in 2015. 18 5. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 5.1. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT Thermal radiation escaping to space Thermal radiation absorbed and "trapped" by greenhouse gases 27% reflected by clouds atmosphere 50% of solar radiation (big red arrow) is absorbed by earth's surf ace and emitted as thermal radiation (black wavy arrow) Solar radi ati on (100 °o) 20% absorbed v clouds and atmosphere 3% reflected by earth's surface Atmosphere Figure 5. The greenhouse effect. Earth receives energy from the sun primarily in the form of light energy, or solar radiation (Fig. 5). Approximately 27% of that incoming solar radiation is reflected back into space, 20% is absorbed by the the atmosphere and clouds, and 3% is reflected from the earth's surface. So, around 50% of the original solar energy never reaches the earth's surface. The remaining 50% is absorbed by the earth's surface and emitted as long -wave thermal radiation (thick black arrow). Some of that thermal radiation escapes to space (thin black arrow), and some of it is absorbed by greenhouse gases, which keep it in the lower atmosphere (green arrow). Higher greenhouse gas concentrations absorb more radiation, which causes more thermal radiation to stay in the lower atmosphere, yielding higher average global surface temperatures. 19 5.2. CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from approximately 280 ppm (parts per million) in the mid -18 century to over 383 ppm in 2009, and continue to increase at a rate of nearly 2 ppm /year. Land use change, including deforestation and intensive agriculture, has caused significant loss of the carbon stored in plants and the soil, and accounts for about 1 /3 of the CO2 increase since the 1800s. The other 2 /3 has come from the burning of fossil fuels. In addition to CO2, several other atmospheric trace gases, including CH4, N20, and CFCs, contribute to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Oceans, plants, and soils absorb some of these greenhouse gases, but not at the rate at which we are emitting them. These emissions can linger in the atmosphere for more than a century, making immediate action crucial. The sooner steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the better the future will be for many generations to come. In their 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that "increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations is very likely to have caused most of the increases in global average temperatures since the mid -20 century." In the past 100 years, the mean global surface temperature has risen 0.74 °C (1.33 °F) and has increased most at northern latitudes. 5.3. GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATLE CHANGE The IPCC's 2007 report details many of the consequences of climate change, including the impacts on freshwater quality and quantity, species ranges and phenologies, species extinction rates, ocean levels and acidity, heat - related mortality, disease vectors, extreme weather events, and regional weather patterns (Table 7). Many of these consequences are already occurring and well documented. The IPCC IV's 2007 Working Group II report, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability discusses these potential impacts in detail. Climate impacts are expected to be particularly severe in less affluent areas of the world, especially in places that are already suffering from severe environmental stress. Less developed nations have fewer financial, physical, and organizational resources to adapt to climate change compared to wealthier nations. In addition, the local and national economies of less developed nations tend to rely heavily on natural resource -based sectors, such as agriculture, fishing, and forestry, all of which are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. Over the next century, the IPCC predicts that temperatures will rise 1.8 °C (3.2 °F) in a low - emissions scenario and 4.0 °C (7.2 °F) in a high emissions scenario. Even if significant mitigation measures are instituted immediately, global temperatures are expected to rise 0.40 °C (0.72 °F) over the next two decades due merely to the greenhouse gases already emitted. 20 Sector Freshwater Resources Impact In general. wet areas become wetter. dry areas drier Confidence High Confidence** Increased extent of drought - affected areas High Confidence Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and associated flooding High Confidence Water stored in glaciers and snow cover declines reducing water availability for the nearly 1fG" of the world's population who rely on such water. High Confidence Ecosystems Many ecosystems could be overstressed by the combination of climate change. associated disturbances (flooding drought. insects ocean acidification etc; and other anthropogenic environmental impacts High Confidence 20 -30 of plant and animal species will be at increased extinction risk if temperature increases exceed 1.5 -2 5`0 Medium Confidence Negative consequences for bioidi•iersity and ecosystem services (e g water and food supply) High Confidence Ocean acidification due to increase 00 is expected to have negative impacts on marine shell- forming organisms and their dependent species Medium Confidence Food Production Globally. food production is expected to increase with temperature increases of 1 -3'C. and decrease with greater temperature increases Medium Confidence Increased drought and flood frequency are projected to decrease local crop production especially in subsistence sectors at loiw latitudes High Confidence Adverse effects expected for acquaculture and fisheries High Confidence Coastal Systems Many millions more people every year are projected to be flooded due to sea -level rise by the 2080s Very High Confidence' Coasts will be exposed to increasing flooding and erosion risks Very High Confidence Widespread coral bleaching and mortality Very High Confidence Table 7. Some predicted impacts of climate change detailed by the IPCC Assessment Report IV. ***Very high confidence -9 in 10 chance; * *High confidence —*8 in 10 chance; Medium confidence -45 in 10 chance of being correct. 21 5.4. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWES1 IL, wI, MN, rN, MI, oH, MO The Midwest has both a critical impact on and significant stake in the global climate. 2005 emissions in the Midwest were higher than those of all other nations except China and Russiaf. India, with its nearly 1.2 billion residents, emitted less CO2 than the Midwestt. Agriculture, which is particularly vulnerable to such climate changes, is responsible for over $19 billion of Iowa's economy and 20% of its jobs, so Iowa clearly has a substantial economic stake in working for a hospitable climate. In a 2009 report, the U.S. Global Change Research Program compiled the latest scientific findings on the impacts of global warming on the U.S. Their discussion of predicted changes in temperature, precipitation, and weather patterns is summarized in the proceeding sections. 5.4.1. Temperature Iowa's summers could come to resemble those of present day Arkansas or Oklahoma over the coming century (Fig. 6), with mean annual temperatures rising 5 -10 °F (Fig. 7). Under a high emissions scenario, the number of days per year exceeding 100 °F is projected to increase from fewer than 10 days currently to 40 -60 days by the end of the century. Higher temperatures can increase utility bills, respiratory problems from stagnant air and ground level ozone, heat related mortality, and stress on ecosystems, crops, and livestock. Stressed crops also tend to be more susceptible to damage from pests and pathogens, which are generally favored by shorter, warmer winters. So although growing season length will increase, the potential for heat waves, floods, droughts, and pests will present significant challenges for farmers. , Mid Centtny. (2040 -2059) Low Ends sions High Emis sions Lower Emissions Higher Emissions 1 Scenario Scenario mid -Century end- of- centur mid - century end -of- century •4 Figure 6. Predicted changes to Illinois summer temperature and precipitation. Iowa will change similarly. Figure modified from U.S. GCRP 2009 report-full citation in Appendix D. T -I I 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 >10 ( F) Figure 7. Predicted temperature changes in Iowa by mid - century and the end of the century in a high emissions scenario and a low emissions scenario. Fig. modified from U.S. GCRP 2009 report-full citation in Appendix D. 22 5.4.2. Precipitation By the end of the century, winters and springs are predicted to be 20 -30% wetter, which could increase the risk of spring floods. In the hot summer seasons, precipitation is predicted to decrease, which will increase the likelihood of droughts events (Fig. 8). The U.S. Global Change Research Program's 2009 report reveals that over the past 50 years, the number of downpours in the Midwest has increased by 31%. In other words, more of our precipitation is falling in fewer, more intense storms that increase flood risk and is not conducive to crop performance. Over the next century, this trend is expected to continue, with more and more of our precipitation falling in intense events separated by long dry spells. This increase in severe weather is likely to lead to more flood events like those of 1993 and 2008, whose costs to Iowans have been estimated at $1.56 billion and $10 billion dollars, respectively. 5.5. MITIGATION 23 Summej Percent Change 1 1 L 1 `ENE < -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 >40 Figure 8. Predicted seasonal percent change in precipitation by the end of the century (2080 -2099) for Iowa under high and low emissions scenarios. Figure modified from U.S. GCRP 2009 report-full citation in Appendix D. The IPCC 2007 report outlines mitigation strategies in several key sectors. Their general recommendations include: • Improved land use management, including reduced deforestation and improved practices in forestry and agriculture. • Improved waste management, including composting, recycling, and overall waste minimization at the production, consumption, and disposal phases. • Reduced combustion of fossil fuels through improvements in energy efficiency, conservation, alternative energy, alternative transportation, and improved materials and design of everything from household items to cities and transportation networks. APPENDIX A DATA SOURCES Government Inventory Solid Waste Facilities Waste Characterization Data (post 2002): Paul Schultz City of Dubuque - Public Works Dept. pschultz@cityofdubuque.org WIP and Annual Tonnage Data: Chuck Goddard City of Dubuque - Public Works Dept. cgoddard@cityofdubuque.org Buildings and Facilities Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque - Finance Dept. Missing Electric Usage Records (Accounts and Months): Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Natural Gas Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Natural Gas Records (Accounts and Months): Black Hills Energy Corporation Jennifer Totten Diesel Backup Generators: Obtained by individual department request Street and Traffic Lights Street and Traffic Lights: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Airport Facilities Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Natural Gas Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Jennifer Totten Black Hills Energy Corporation Water Delivery Facilities Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Natural Gas Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records(Accounts and Months): Jennifer Totten Black Hills Energy Corporation Wastewater Facilities Electric Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records (Accounts and Months): Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy Natural Gas Usage: Ken Tekippe City of Dubuque Finance Dept. Missing Records( Accounts and Months): Black Hills Energy Corporation Jennifer Totten Diesel For Generator and BOD load: Jonathan . Brown, Plant Manager Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP) jobrown@cityofdubuque.org (563) 589 - 4176 24 Vehicle Fleet Public Works Filling Station Data: Public Works Dept. Garage Kathy Masterpol, Public Works kmasterpol@cityofdubuque.org (563) 589 -4274 Water Pollution Control Plant Fleet Data: Jonathan Brown, Plant Manager - WPCP jobrown@cityofdubuque.org (563) 589 - 4176 DMASWA (landfill) Vehicle Fleet: Mike Kelly (563) 451-4859 Airport Vehicle Fleet: Dubuque Airport Robert Grierson Employee Commute Survey conducted in August 2009: 182 respondents. Trasnsit : Keyline Transit Jon Rodocker Transit Manager Office (563) 589 -4196 Fax (563) 589 -4340 jrodocke@cityofdubuque.org Solid Waste: Annual Municipal Waste Data: Paul Schultz and Dave Sitzman City of Dubuge Dept. of Public Works pschultz@cityofdubuque.org dsitzman@cityofdubuque.org Missing Data Filled in By: Jessica Severson Allied Waste (563) 556-5393 jseverson@republicservices.com Refrigerants: Fire Suppressant Data: Maggie Blaser Dubuque Fire Equipment Refrigerant Data: Obtained through individual dept. request 25 Community Inventory Aggregate Natural Gas: Mark Ernst Black hills Energy Corporation Mark.Emst @blackhillscorp.com Aggregate Electric Craig Clefisch Alliant Energy CraigClefisch@alliantenergy.com Aggregate Vehicle Miles Traveled Chandra Ravada ECIA Director of Transportation Department Cravada @ecia.org Aggregate Airt Travel: Gordon Vetch Dubuque Regional Airport Annual Waste Tonnage: Chuck Goddard City of Dubuque Public Works cgoddard@cityofdubuque.org Power Generation Alliant Energy — Dubuque Generating Station Power Plant Greenhouse gas, SOx, and NOx emissions: US EPA Clean Air Markets Data and Maps — accessed 11/26/09 CAP Data 2002 CAP data from power plant and industrial sites US EPA National Emission Inventory Database - Facility Emissions Reports — accessed 11/26/09 Industrial sites whose direct CAP emissions were included in totals: • Alliant Energy — Dubuque Generating Station • Jeld -Wen Inc. • Dubuque Water Pollution Control Plant • Eagle Window and Door Inc. • Koch Materials Co. APPENDIX B NOTES & ASSUMPTIONS General Methodology: • Except where otherwise noted, the methods, calculators, and default emissions factors provided by ICLEI's Local Government Operations Protocol (LGOP) (v1.0, 2008) and CACP2009 software v2.1 were followed for all calculations. • If a GHG (e.g. HFCs, PFCs, and S06) is not included in tables of emissions totals, it is because it has a value of zero or is sufficiently low to qualify as De Minimis. All emissions were included in reported total emissions, but not all gases were specifically identified if they constituted an insubstantial proportion of the total. Electricity Methodology • Used the MAIN South Region of the EPA's regionally defined " eGRID" years 1990- 2003 (Table 2- LGOP). for default electricity emissions factor of CO2 and MRO West region of the EPA's regionally define "eGRID" years 2004 and 2005 (Table 1 -LGOP) for NO2 and CH4, in Inventory year 2003. • Used the MRO West region of the EPA's regionally defined "eGRID" years 2004 and 2005 (Table 1 -LGOP) for default electricity emissions factors of CO2, NO2 and CH4 in inventory year 2007. • Used the Mid - Continent Area Power Pool region of the North American Reliability Corporation (NERC) to identify electricity emissions factors for each of the following criteria air pollutants NOx, SOx, CO, VOC, and PM These emissions factors were applied to both (2003, 2007) inventory years. Solid Waste Facilities • Used IPCC's Mathematically Exact First -Order Decay Model • National defaults for Waste Charicterization Data (adjusted yard waste for ban) used for yrs preceding "pay as you throw recycling program" (2002). • Anual average rainfall estimated to be 38 inches per yr • Community solid waste: used community analysis annual waste calculator CACP2009v2.1 Vehicle Fleet • Data from vehicle model years outside the categories provided by CACP were placed in the nearest category (e.g. light trucks from 1984 were included in the light trucks MY 1987 to 1993 category) • Used average miles/hrs per yr for available time periods to estimate annual vehicle usage. • Airport Vehicle Fleet: detailed breakdown was not available; used aggregate fuel use by type for 2003 and 2007. Entered as Alt Method Heavy Duty for both diesel and gasoline vehicles. 26 Refrigerants Methodology • Used "Estimation based on equipment inventory and refrigerant use" (6.6.2.2 on pg 57 of LGOP). • Used default coefficients from Table 6.3 on p. 58 of LGOP for missing Full Charge Capacity and Operating Emissions Factor data. Because default emission factors are highly uncertain, the resulting emissions estimates are considered much less accurate than the mass balance approach and most likely resulted in an overestimation of Scope 1 fugitive emissions. However, as of the writing of this report, it was the best information available. • Used emissions factor recommended by IPCC for R -22 which is classified as an Information Item and is not addressed in the LGOP. • No HFCs found in dry chemical MSDS sheets used by the City of Dubuque. 27 APPENDIX C. CITY OF DUBUQUE PROFILE Jurisdiction Name: Street Address : Website Address: Size: Population: Annual Operating Budget: Employees (Full Time Equivalent): CO2e per employee: Climate Zone: Annual Heating Degree Days: Annual Cooling Degree Days: Contact Person: Dubuque 50 West 13th Street Dubuque, Iowa 52001 www.cityofdubuque.org 27.7 sq miles 56,583 $91,638,524 (FY 2010) 524 (2003); 631 (2007) 152.8 (2003); 136.4 (2007) 2 7,327 593 Paul Schultz Resource Management Coordinator pschultz @cityofdubuque.org (563) 589 -4250 28 APPENDIX D. CREDITS AND CITATIONS The following sources were cited extensively in the Climate Change section, and should be consulted for further information: 29 IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth A ssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, Of.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. Van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 7 -22. Global Climate Change Impacts of the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.) Cambridge University Press, 2009. Figures 9, 10, and 11 in this report was modified from the Figures on p. 117, 29, and 31, respectively, of Global Climate Change Impacts of the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson (eds.) Cambridge University Press, 2009. Facility Scope 1 (tonnes CO e) Scope 2 (tonnes CO,e) Scope 3 (tonnes CO e) Total Emissions (tonnes CO e) 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 2003 2007 Buildings 1,442 1,393 3,618 3,201 - - 5,060 4.594 Airport 178 166 441 740 - - 619 907 Water Delivery 4,154 370 4,519 6,787 - - 8,673 7,157 Streetlights /Signals - - 1,317 2,051 - - 1,317 2,051 Wastewater 1,537 1,238 3,976 5,647 - - 5,513 6,885 Solid Waste 54.466 59,643 - - - - 54,466 59,643 Public Transit 963 1,078 - - - - 963 1,078 Vehicle Fleet 2,341 2,628 - - - - 2.341 2,628 Employee Commute - - - - 427 432 427 432 Refrigerants* 627 627 - - - - 627 627 Other 78 78 - - - - 78 78 Total 65,786 67,221 13,871 18,428 _ 427 432 80,084 86,080 APPENDIX E. EMISSIONS BY SCOPE Table El. Greenhouse gas emissions from various sectors of Dubuque municipal government operations in 2003 and 2007 reported by scope. PURCHASED ELECTRICITY FOR OWN USE SCOPE 2 IIDIRECT SCOPE 1 DIREcr FUEL COMBUSTION SCOPE 3 INDIRECT PRODUCT USE PRODUCTION or PURCHASFO MATERIAI OUTSOURCED ACTIVITIES crnrl au$V E$STRAvr WASTE DEiPOSA I CONTRACTOR OWNE l VEHICLES Figure El. Visual representation of scopes. Source: ICLEI LGOP v1.0 30 City of Dubuque Greenhouse Gas Inventory Presentation to City Council 7.19.10 SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE "Dubuque is a viable, livable, and equitable community. We embrace economic prosperity, social /cultural vibrancy and environmental integrity to create a sustainable legacy for generations to come." C USTA1NABLE DUBUQUE viable liveable equitable Leading By Example ■ Smarter Sustainable Dubuque • Washington Neighborhood Revitalization Initiative • KeyLine Public Transportation Improvements • Permeable Pavers Pilots • Water Pollution Control Plant Upgrade • Curbside Foodscrap /Compost Program • Art on the River )UBUQUE viable liveable eq ui(nble State & National Partnerships ICLEI L Local Governments for Sustainability 0 SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable liveable equitable AIA IrS C L i' M A T E COMMUNITIES Communities by Design ENVISION. C R E A T E . SUSTAIN. SUSTAINABLE L DUBUQUE i'ia Flt 1r'e 1'I rq n itrt(dr ICLEI's Five Milestone Process 1. Conduct baseline emissions inventory and forecast. 2. Adopt emissions reduction target plan 3. Develop local climate action plan 4. Implement policies & measures 5. Monitor & verify results SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable li3enblr equitably. Why create a Climate Action Plan? • Economic Prosperity: Local, independent energy sources Local green jobs Energy efficiency = reduced costs Improved transportation networks DUBUQUE viaBle li venhle ° eq taGlr Why create a Climate Action Plan? • Environmental Integrity Cleaner air, water and soil Waste minimization by recycling, composting and using less Development of healthy green space Reduced impact on environment and climate SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable liveable • equitable Why create a Climate Action Plan? • Social /cultural vibrancy Reduced traffic congestion Improved natural aesthetics Improved health and safety of residents Showcase Dubuque' sustainability leadership What is measured? SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable • liveable • equitable CO SF, (H N20 IlFCs PFC! SCOPE 2 INOMECT SCOPE 1 tR#rcr SCOPE S INCAMOT NJRAM.5E. RECTA/CITY POPGUN UIF FI1Ek COWLIL511ON CT Est PIO mwrna14 OF PuH4+1ASEb "AM URALS 1. , C4IP 01.16KEDAC111 ORES 01PlnrIECI<USPAIS S ILICPEL si,ui CONTRACTOR OWMED 'dB- IICLES• 4ii O glYiv6iw viable liveable • uquifabk Dubuque's GHG Inventory includes: • Buildings & facilities • Street & traffic lights • Water & wastewater operations • City vehicle fleet • Public transit • Airport facilities • DMAWSA • Employee commute s Baseline Year: 2003 80,084 tonnes CO ❑ Public Transits Vehicle Fleet El Airport Buildings 1 '% 3% 10,,E 6% ❑ Refrigerants 1% II Solid Waste 68% ❑ at er Delivery 11% ❑ Streetlights & Signals 2% ■ Wastewater ❑ Employee Commute 1% SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable liveable equitable Interim Year: 2007 86,080 tonnes CO ❑ Public Transit • Vehicle Fleet ❑ Airport Buildings • Refrigerants 1% 3f° 1% 5f° 1% Water Delivery 8% • Streetlights & Signals 2% • Solid Waste 69% • Wastewater 8% ❑ Employee Commute 1°4 SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable ,, liveable ° equitable Change in Emissions: 2003 -2007 10.0% 8.0% - 6.0% - 4.0% - 2.0% - 0.0% I ■ - 2.0% - • -2.5% -4.0% - - 6.0% - - 8.0% ■ 7.9% -5.3% 9.o% 5.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 0.3% SUSTAINABLE DUBUQUE viable • liveable equitable 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% ■ ■ 1 ■ ■ 1 ■ 1 ■ ■ Buildings Airport Water Street- Waste- Solid Public Vehicle Employee Refriger- Other Total Delivery lights & water Waste Transit Fleet Commute ants Signals Projected Future Emissions 160,000 • • • Business as usual 140,000- - 2003 levels 120,000- 113,062 ,,..''' }'' . y y ' 100,000 - 98,072 y ,.''''' 90,577„ •- •' 80,000 80,084 60,000- 40,000- 20,000- 0 80,084 2003 2007 2010 2015 2025 150,537 _ *y . 80,084 80.084 2 050 Using the Data: Next Steps 1. 5. 2. Adopt emissions reduction target plan 3. Develop local climate action plan 4. ICLEI Communities Target Community % Below Baseline Target Year Austin TX 10 -20% 2010 Berkley CA 15% 2010 Burlington VT 10% 2005 Durham NC 5% 2025 Miami -Dade Co FL 20% 2005 Minneapolis MN 20% 2005 Portland OR 20% 2010 St Paul MN 20% 2005 Takoma Park MD 20% 2010 Tuscon AZ 20% 2010 Dubuque's Leadership: Methane Capture & WPCP 160,000 1.10,000- 120,000 - 100,000- 80,000 60,000- 40,000 - 20,000- 0 - - - Business as usual 1, Forthcoming reductions 2003 . levels 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 • 44010.400000 400,400 '# 440.44, 4004 2003 2010 2015 1 n 1 1 1 1 2025 Year 1 1 1 r 1 1 1 I 2050