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DMATS Year 2000 Socio-Economic Projections_City of Dubuque-Dubuque Metropolitan Area Transporation Study Fall 1980R 388.31 DUB Iowa Books ARCHIVES DMIITU YEAR !000 SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS CITY OF DUBUQUE/ DUBUQUE METPOPOLITAN AREA TRANSPORTATION Sit ICY FALL 1980 OM DUBUQUE PUBLIC LIBRARY R 388.31 DUB Iowa Books Dubuque Community Development Planning Divisio DMATS, Dubuque Metropolitan Area Transportation Study / City of Dubuque Department of Community Development Planning Div sion I31II25I0I I9II 7I DI Carneg a -Stout, 1Puuouqubluec Libra y L�w,ti�Metropolitan Area Transportation�Study M MAR13.1983 AJ 05.1983 T� MP%APR.Y3,).198c{ c N 0 0 co 705 0 elop- of CARNEGIE-STOUT PUBLIC LIBRARY Dubuque, Iowa Borrowers Each borrower will be responsible for all books, etc., charged to him. Overdue Fees Adult Books 10¢ per day Young Adult Books 100 per day Juvenile Books 50 per day CITY OF DUBUQUE DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PLANNING DIVISION PREPARED BY: CHARLES C. VANDA ASSOCIATE' PLANNER FALL 1980 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION 3 HISTORICAL GROWTH 5 SURVEY OF FACTORS INFLUENCING GROWTH 9 PROJECTIONS 14 Total Employment Growth Employment Growth by Sector Commutation and Resident Employment Population Households and Dwelling Units Automobiles CONCLUSION 31 BIBLIOGRAPHY 33 APPENDIX - Survey Analysis SUMMARY The process used in developing the projections contained in this paper included an examination of the historical trends that have influenced the Dubuque area economy, and an analysis of current and probable future economic conditions. The latter effort was greatly facilitated by a survey of nearly forty area individuals who possessed a superior knowledge of one or more facets of the DMATS economy. The projections resulting from that process indicate that DMATS employment is expected to increase by approximately 14,000 jobs between 1975 and 2000, from 36,131 to about 50,000. Manufac- turing employment should remain the area's major source of "ba- sic" employment, expanding by about 2500 jobs. Employment sec- tors like retail trade and services should expand measurably in response to an anticipated growing regional demand for goods and services. The average annual level of employment growth projected for the period 1975-2000 is less than that which occurred between 1965-1975. The anticipated growth rate reflects both changing local and regional conditions. Foremost among these changing conditions are the probability of limited growth by DMATS larg- est employers and the impact of a continued national shift of 82(09G5+ employment and population growth to the sunbelt states. The growth of population and housing will parallel that of em- ployment. DMATS' population is projected to increase from 75,463 in 1975 to 90,000 in 2000. This level of growth would reflect relatively low birth rates through the period. A smal- ler average household size is also expected to contribute to housing demand, and approximately 8400 new dwelling units will be required to meet the housing requirements of this larger population. 2 INTRODUCTION This report presents an overview of economic and social condi- tions that may be expected in Dubuque in the Year 2000. It is prepared in response to requirements of the urban transporta- tion planning process, which provides for periodic re-evalua- tion of community growth trends that influence traffic flow and other transportation system needs. The same factors that influence transportation demand, such as employment levels, population growth and land use, are equally important to planning most other community facilities. Because of this broad applicability, this analysis has attempted to go beyond simple compliance with federal transportation planning requirements. It is intended to provide insight into the range of conditions that either constrain or facilitate community well-being in future years. It draws that insight from infor- mation provided by local people who are knowledgeable of pros- pects for growth and change wihin a variety of industries, in- stitutions, and other centers of economic development, and com- pares their collective impression of the future with projec- tions of regional growth made at the national level. This re-evaluation of economic and social trends has led the staff to a series of projections of future conditions that dif- fer, in many cases, from previous forecasts. However, it is 3 very probable that new trends noted in the report, particularly an anticipated decline in the rate of employment growth, may be altered by decisions the community makes. It is expected that the picture of the future outlined in this report may serve as a point of departure for the discussion of public sector alter- natives that can help assure continued economic prosperity and a quality environment for the Dubuque metropolitan area. HISTORICAL GROWTH In order to place the tuture in proper perspective, it is nec- essary to carefully examine the past. The Dubuque area econo- my has, over the years, maintained a remarkable degree of grad- ual, yet stable growth. This has occurred primarily due to the economy's ability to acquire new industries as existing indus- tries were either stagnating or declining due to maturation or technological obsolescence. In the early 1800's, lead mining began to phase out, lumber and woodworking rose to prominence, producing the country's largest wagon manufacturer and one of the largest woodworking firms in the world. Around the turn of the century the growth of the railroad corresponded to the lum- ber industries' contraction. The Dubuque area witnessed only limited growth through most of the first half of the nineteenth century. The dramatic growth of the Dubuque Packing Company occasioned this century's first real surge in employment. Between 1931 and 1963 the company added some 3400 employees. Presently, the company's Dubuque employment level is somewhat below the 1963 level. The area's most recent, and most dramatic growth impetus, came with the establishment of the John Deere Dubuque Works in 1946. A closer examination of the Dubuque area's post-1940 economy reveals that manufacturing expansion has been the dominant 4 5 factor in the growth of the metro community. The period 1940- 1965 exhibited moderate growth, due mainly to the expansion of the Dubuque Packing Company and the initial growth of John Deere. Additional growth contributions were made by smaller firms and by secondary industries marketing consumer goods and services to the area population. During this period, an aver- age of about 350 additional jobs were formed in Dubuque County each year. 50_ 40_ 30_ 20_ 10_ Figure 2. DMATS & DUBUQUE CO. NON -AG EMPLOYMENT Dubuque Co. DMATS 1940 50 60 65 66 70 74 75 78 80 Employment growth since 1965 has been much more dramatic than during the previous twenty-five years. Between 1965 and 1978, Dubuque County gained additional jobs at an average of about 1180 per year. Significant employment growth has occurred in all major sectors. During the most recent eight -year analysis period, between 1970 and 1978, manufacturing employment expanded by about 22.5%, nearly twice the national rate. However, the growth rates of the area's two largest manufacturers, the primary growth sour- ces in the past, may now be subsiding. Much of the large manu- facturing employment gains that were made in the early 1970's were lost when Dubuque was impacted by the national recession of 1974-75, and by the closing of the Caradco plant. Even in mid-1979, the County had not yet reattained its December 1974 level of manufacturing employment. The rapid manufacturing growth that occurred in the first half of the 1970's can be attributed primarily to the growth of the John Deere Dubuque Works. Between 1970 and 1975, employment at Deere rose from about 4300 to 6900. In 1975, John Deere was employing 44% of the County's manufacturing workers. At the end of 1979, plant employment hovered around 8200. Employment at Dubuque's second largest manufacturing concern, the Dubuque Packing Company, declined slightly during the late 1970's to about 2500 at the end of the decade. Many of the Dubuque area's other manufacturing industries ex- panded their operations, but their cumulative increase did not approach the magnitude of the John Deere expansion. A few firms either decreased their employment levels or terminated their operations completely, thus offsetting some of the gains by others. During 1970-1978, about 30% of Dubuque County's total employ- ment growth occurred in the manufacturing sector. Other sec- tors, notably retail trade and services, experienced higher growth rates. Part of the reason for these higher growth rates was that many of these non -manufacturing sectors, such as pro- fessional services, have not yet reached their full development potential. More importantly, there is usually a time lag be- tween the creation of jobs in the basic or wealth producing sector and the creation of "secondary" jobs that are a response to the disposable income generated by the new basic jobs. The high disposable incomes generated by new area manufacturing jobs, the major source of DMATS basic employment, have provided much of the impetus for the 36% growth in the non -manufacturing sectors. SURVEY OF FACTORS INFLUENCING GROWTH The approach taken in developing the projections in this report was to initially develop a series of local employment projec- tions using various standard methods and assumptions. Some of the projections resulted in significantly different levels of projected DMATS employment. An attempt was then made to re- solve the disparities of the preliminary projections and to de- velop a set of projections which best reflected both local and national perceptions of growth for DMATS and the Midwest re- gion. To strengthen the analysis of local perceptions, the opinions and viewpoints of a cross-section of DMATS' major employers and employee organizations were solicited. The thirty-six individ- uals who participateq in the survey responded to a discussion paper and questionnaire illustrating some standard projection methods and a number of assumptions about DMATS' growth. While the respondents' input confirmed many of the staff's initial assumptions, it indicated a need to revise several features of the employment projections. (See the Appendix for an analysis of survey results.) The survey respondents pointed out a number of factors which should lead to employment growth in the DMATS area. Often 8 9 mentioned was the fact that Dubuque will soon have a new bridge to Wisconsin. Also, intercity and intracity highway linkages are scheduled to be improved during the projection period. Within the City of Dubuque, Freeway 561 should provide conve- nient access to downtown commercial and industrial areas by 1990. Intercity highway improvements will be slower in coming. Probably the first, and most important improvement, will be a freeway connection to Interstate 80 near Davenport, Iowa. How- ever, this connection is not scheduled for completion until the mid-1990's and was acknowledged to have only limited impact on DMATS growth during the projection period. Figure 3. MAJOR FACTORS INFLUENCING METROPOLITAN GROWTH Labor Quality Sofupply Life Cost Industrial Land Availability Private Sector Decisions Public Commitment & Direction 10 Transportation System Energy Cost & Availability Product Market Development DMATS manufacturing employment growth in the period 1970-1980 can largely be attributed to the rapid expansion of the area's largest employer, John Deere. The impact of Deere's growth on the local economy can begin to be appreciated when one realizes that while Deere added about 3900 jobs during the 1970-1980 period, the entire County only experienced a net manufacturing employment gain of about 3500. (The County's net gain was di- minished by the loss of Caradco and a few smaller firms, and by employment reductions at others.) While a number of survey respondents optimistically predicted that Deere will increase its employment significantly, the com- pany's public statements indicate otherwise. Having reached a level of. nearly 8000 employees at the Dubuque Works, Deere has stated that it has no plans for appreciable expansion of its employment, at least in the near future. Very few survey respondents were willing to speculate that DMATS' second largest employer, the Dubuque Packing Company, will experience significant growth during the projection per- iod. In 1979, the Dubuque Packing Company employed about 2600 people, roughly 16% of the County's manufactuing employment. During the period 1970-1979, clined by about 300 persons. that dispersal trends within the plant employment level de - Many survey respondents perceived the meat packing industry might 11 inhibit significant growth at the Dubuque Packing Company. In mid-1980, the management of Dubuque Packing announced that the plant's beef kill operation might be closed at the end of that year. This action would idle about 350 to 400 workers. While economic conditions and individual company policies are subject to change, it appears that limited growth will be forthcoming from DMATS' two largest "basic" employers. If this assumption is correct, it will significantly affect the amount and type of future employment growth in the DMATS area. How- ever, DMATS has a number of smaller manufacturing concerns which include firms like A.Y. of survey re- spondents were representatives of such moderate size firms. The representative' comments suggested that this group of firms is unlikely to experience an appreciable divergence from its present course. It appears likely that they will continue to respond to their respective regional or national markets and experience moderate growth overall. McDonald, Flexsteel, St. Regis Paper and the Adams Company. An examination of this group in- dicates that the group as a whole enjoys a good measure of vi- tality and growth potential. More specifically, W.C. Brown Co., St. Regis Paper and the Telegraph Herald have all experi- enced major growth during the 1970's. A number Respondents expect employment growth in DMATS' non -manufactur- ing employment sectors to grow significantly. Both local and national trends appear to support this assumption. Retail trade can be expected to grow at a relatively constant pace, supported by the area's high household incomes and gradual pop- ulation gains. Service employment should follow a similar path, reacting to an anticipated growth in regional demand. 12 13 PROJECTIONS Total Employment Growth Employment projections for the DMATS area were developed using national and regional studies and projections. For reasons ex- plained in the preceding section, DMATS' 1975-2000 employment may be expected to grow at a rate that is about one-half of that experienced during the 1965-1975 period, when John Deere was growing dramatically. Realization of the projected growth rate would result in an additional 14,000 jobs. 70 _ 60 _ 50 _ 40 _ 30_ 20_ 10_ Figure 4. PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATE 1965 Actual Projected 70 75 d0 14 2000 Employment Growth by Sector Figure 5 shows both the absolute and relative changes in sec- toral employment for various sectors of the economy. The pro- jected sectoral growth rates are in close correspondence with their counterparts at the national level. Nationally, manufac- turing is expected to decline in its share of total employment. In DMATS a similar relative decline is anticipated, as the shares of other sectors advance. However, manufacturing will remain the major source of area employment. 2000 1990 1980 1975 Figure 5. PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AS PERCENT OF TOTAL 25.3 25.5 1.9 2.1 18.2 16.9 17.7 24.7 2.3 15.7 18.0 17.6 39.3 37.0 37.8 19.6 2.3 15.3 18.6 10 20 Manufacturing Retail Trade UN- Professional Services Personal Services LgEld Other 44.2 i I I (In tho0usands) 04 50 15 The growth of employment in other sectors, such as services and retail trade, is generally more dependent on area population and disposable income than is growth in the manufacturing sec- tor. For this reason, projections of employment in these sec- tors has been adjusted slightly downward because the rate of net population growth in DMATS is anticipated to be slightly below the national rate. Yet, in spite of the downward adjust- ments, appreciable employment gains are expected to be made in several areas including professional services, tourism and re- tail trade. Table 1 gives a numeric breakdown of projected em- ployment by sector. The sectoral levels correspond to the per- centages shown in Figure 5 above. Table 1. PROJECTED SECTORAL GROWTH 1975 1980 1990 2000 Manufacturing Retail Trade Professional Services Personal Services Other Total 15,981 17,149 17,744 6,712 7,843 8,305 5,514 6,863 7,915 18,444 8,715 9,096 820 1, 021 981 962 7,104 10,781 11,952 12,628 36,131 43,657 46, 897 49, 845 Commutation and Resident Employment The population DMATS will be capable of supporting is highly dependent on the area's level of resident employment. Thus, a projection of future population requires a determination of the resident employment level and the commutation rate. Workers in manufacturing industries comprise a large share of commuters to the DMATS area. Annual surveys conducted by the Dubuque Area Industrial Development Corporation reveal a significant in- crease in the number of industrial commuters to the Dubuque ar- ea during the 1964-1978 period. The number of industrial com- muters increased from 2900 to 6200. However, about 75-80% of the increase occurred during two periods covering only three years. The periods were 1964-1965 and 1971-1973, and they closely parallel large employment increases at John Deere. Thus, much of the large increase in the number of commuters ap- pears to be the result of John Deere expansions and the strong attraction and pulling power of that firm. Other factors also contributed to the increase in commutation including convenient and affordable transportation, available rural home sites, and the desire of some workers to live in ru- ral or semi -rural surroundings. 16 17 While it is extremely difficult to accurately estimate the num- ber of total DMATS commuters, it is estimated that commuters have gradually increased and may have reached 17-18% of total employment in 1980. Over the 1975-2000 period, it is assumed the level of commutation will remain relatively constant at 18%. The locational preference for rural living will be coun- terbalanced, in part, by the increasing costs associated with commuting. Table 2 shows resident employment relative to total employment. Total Employment Resident Employment Percent Commuting Table 2. EMPLOYMENT & COMMUTING 1975 1980 1990 2000 36,131 43,657 46,897 49,845 31,015 35,799 38,456 40,873 14.2% 18% 18% 18% Population DMATS' future population is estimated by projecting natural growth and accounting for anticipated net migration. A reason- ably accurate long-range projection of native population growth can be obtained by employing cohort population analysis. These procedures utilize assumptions about five-year age group sur- vival rates and fertility rates that have a reasonably high level of statistical probability. Nationally, the U.S. Census Bureau expects fertility rates to decline during the period continuing a trend that began in the 1960's. The continued involvement of more women in the labor force is considered to be a major reason for the lower fertili- ty rates. In the DMATS area, fertility rates and population growth have traditionally been above the respective national averages. During the projection period, the DMATS rates are expected to gradually approach the projected national rates, eventually equalling them in the Year 2000. The other major component of population forecasting is migra- tion. Anticipated net migration is determined by applying la- bor force participation rates to resident employment. Labor [orce participation rates indicate what portion of the popula- tion is employed and, conversely what portion of the population is not gainfully employed. For the Year 2000 DMATS population, 18 19 the projected overall labor force participation rate percent, meaning that 44.8 percent of the population is 44.8 is likely to be employed. Therefore, it is anticipated that projected Year 2000 resident employment supporting a total population of 39,876 would be capable of of 89,090. However, the natural growth of the native population, based solely on expected births and deaths, would be about 94,000. This means that DMATS would experience net out -migration during the projection period. Figure 6a. 1975 POPULATION 85+ _I 1 80-84 1 75-79 70 - 74 mommim----1 65-69 60-64 55-59 3 50-54 JEMMINMINMENNI 45-49 40-44 Ammimmummigus • 35-39 ANiimmilmommi • 30-34 25-29 Female Male 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 The projected changes in the composition of DMATS population due to natural growth and migration can be observed by con- trasting the age -sex graphs in Figure 6. The most salient change is the shift of the large "baby -boom" population from adolescence and young adulthood to middle -age. During the 1975-2000 period, the females born during the boom will enter, and many will pass through, their childbearing years. The re- sultant expected births will cause the Year 2000 under -twenty population to approach its 1975 level. is P. O co 1 Figure 6b. 2000 POPULATION 85+ _INN 80 - 84 _Jim 75-79 70 - 74 65-69 J 60 - 64 Ammfi•mmJ 55 - 59 JOMEmmoi 50-54 JMNIMmaimmigimmismi 45-49 40-44 35-39 30- 34 f--1 Female 25-29 iiimmimmommEmmi Male 20-24 AIIIIMMEME 15-19 imimmwmmimmmimmmmmmmmrl 10-14 Animmimimmimm 5-9 AMMIIMMENNOMMIll 0-4 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 20 21 Table 3. PROJECTION OF DMATS NET POPULATION GROWTH 1975 1980 1990 2000 0-4 5642 7220 8060 6595 5 - 9 6789 5864 7490 7317 10-14 8078 7008 6881 7825 15 -19 8502 8288 5541 7265 20 -24 7218 9139 6512 6206 25-29 5731 7701 7722 4948 30-34 4057 6221 8123 6004 a 35-39 3594 4572 6892 7065 30 40 - 44 3407 4102 5419 7412 L 8 45 -49 3718 3375 3904 6836 0) 50 -54 3810 3643 3388 5311 e 55-59 3304 3612 3111 3627 60 -64 3048 3114 3229 3025 65-69 2590 2773 3018 2627 70-74 2310 2252 2394 2507 75 - 79 1666 1861 1877 1802 80 -84 1064 1191 1268 1371 85-+ 935 1007 1225 1347 Total 75,463 82,943 86,054 89,090 The more detailed cohort projections in Table 3 indicate that the number of persons over 60 will grow by about 1000, but will actually decline slightly in its share of total population. (Major expansion of the over 60 population will begin to occur by 2010.) The 20-59 year old group will grow markedly, by some 7000 persons. The primary and secondary school age population (5-17 year olds) of 2000 will be about the same size that it was in 1975. However, an appreciable decline in the age group will be noted during the 1980's, as this age group decreases by about 2000, about 11%. The local college age population (18-21 year olds) will also experience size reduction during the 1980's, with an expected decline to nearly 25% below the 1975 level by 1990. Households and Dwelling Units The projection of the number of households makes it possible to anticipate the future housing needs of the metropolitan area. Such information is valuable to both private and public sector individuals who are involved in meeting the housing needs and demands of the population. 22 23 In the recent past, household formation and can be expected residents of Dubuque County have exhibited behavior similar to the nation as a whole, to continue relatively close adherence to national trends in household formation. Currently, there are several factors that would tend to increase the rate of house- hold formation and the demand for dwelling units. Young adults are establishing their own households at an earlier age. Mar- riages are being postponed, causing more singles to maintain independent households for longer periods. Divorces and sepa- rations are occurring with increasing frequency, creating more Table 4. HOUSEHOLDS 1975 1980 1990 2000 Population 75,463 82,943 86,054 89,090 Persons/ Household 2.97 2.89 2.76 2.65 Households 25,374 28,720 31,233 33,632 one -parent and one -person households. The dominant factor in- hibiting new household formation is the dramatically increasing cost of housing which affects almost all age groups and life situations. The factors leading to household formation, many of which often result in one or two person households, have also helped foster a trend toward small household size. Additionally, decisions by couples to have fewer or no children are affecting household size. The household projections contained in Table 4 were developed by projecting the tendency of DMATS residents to form indepen- dent households. The DMATS formation tendency rates were de- veloped by using corresponding national rates. Table 5. TOTAL DWELLING UNITS 1975 1980 1990 2000 Dwelling 26,102 29,517 32,095 34,557 Units Persons/ Dwelling Unit Vacancy Rate 2.89 2.81 2.68 2.58 2.79% 2.70% 2.69% 2.68% The projection of dwelling units is based upon the household formation rates of resident population, the vacancy rate and a deLermi.nation of the number of persons living in group quar- ters. Future vacancy rates are anticipated to be 2% for single-family detached units and 5% for multi -family units (or very close to current vacancy rates.) The number of group fa- cility residents (individuals in dormitories, convents, home for elderly, etc.) has been nearly constant for the Dubuque ar- ea for several years. The projections assume a slight increase in the number of individuals living in homes for the aged to reflect the increase in the number of older DMATS residents. • Single Family Detached Mobile Homes Multi - Unit Total Table 6 DWELLING UNIT BY TYPE 1975 2000 Scenario A Scenario B approximate additional total 17,018 5,935 22,953 1,357 414 1,771 7,727 2,106 9,833 26,102 8,455 34,557 additional total 4,021 21,039 413 1,770 4,021 11,748 8,455 34,557 The dwelling unit projections would suggest the addition of 8,455 units to the metropolitan housing stock by Year 2000. If the DMATS population continues to exhibit dwelling unit occu- pancy characteristics similar to those exhibited by the nation in the 1970's, over. 70 percent of the additional units will be single-family detached units. However, the trends in housing economics may create major shifts in housing demand during the period. The costs of home construction and maintenance have been rising much more rapidly than income. Therefore, it ap- pears that demand may gradually shift to smaller, more economi- cal units and particularly, to multi -unit construction. Because of the uncertainty regarding the demand for housing by type, two possible scenarios are presented in Table 6. Scenar- io A presents a Year 2000 housing type composition that could result if the DMATS population were to continue to exhibit the dwelling unit occupancy characteristics of the 1970's through- out the entire projection period. Over 70 percent of the addi- tional units would be single-family detached units. The hous- ing type composition in Scenario B could result if the amounts of additional single-family detached and multi -unit construc- tion were about equal. In both scenarios, the amount of 26 27 additional mobile home units is the same. Scenario B would re- sult in the consumption of about 10-15 percent less land, given current density standards. Automobiles Projecting automobile ownership and usage is valuable in the analysis of the metropolitan's area's transportation system. Related forecasts of traffic volumes allow for more informed decisions regarding the design of the system and expenditure of funds Cor improvements in the system. Despite the increasing cost of gasoline, a significant decrease in auto ownership is not anticipated. It is more likely that more dramatic changes will occur in auto size, the type of fuel utilized and the level of usage. The projected changes in the rate of auto ownership in DMATS corresponds closely to project- ed national rates developed by the Federal Highway Administra- tion. The DMATS auto ownership levels are based primarily on historical trends and the projected resident population. Table 7. AUTOMOBILES 1975 1980 1990 2000 Autos 34,477 39,920 42,634 43,911 Autos/ 1.32 1.35 1.32 1.27 Dwelling Unit Persons/ 2.19 2.08 2.02 2.03 Autos 28 29 In 1979, mass transit accounted for only about 5 percent of the person -trips in the DMATS area. During the projection period, the increasing costs associated with independent transportation modes should make the use of mass transit more viable and ac- ceptable to commuters. However, the relatively low -density character of much of the metropolitan area's existing develop- ment precludes extensive reliance on mass transit. In the Year 2000 the DMATS area should be only slightly less dependent on the private auto than it was in 1975. CONCLUSION It has been speculated that most of the "basic" employment will not be generated by the area's largest manufacturers, as it has in the past. Instead, it is likely that medium and small -size firms will be the major source of basic employment growth. Currently, the metro area's public and private sectors appear firmly committed to policies and programs that should foster economic growth. The continuance of this commitment through the projection period should allow for the realization of the projected employment increases. The demographic changes that are likely to occur between 1975 and the Year 2000 are also noteworthy. The'population is like- ly to increase to about 89,000, an additional 14,000 people. It will be an older population, creating an increased demand for adult services and products. Conversely, the youth and ado- lescent populations will experience no real increases and will actually decline in size during much of the period. The im- pacts of this reduction will be felt by area educational insti- tutions in the form of moderately declining enrollments. Land development occurring during the projection period may be appreciable, but less dramatic than that witnessed during the sixties and early seventies. There is a likelihood that single-family detached dwellings will become less dominant, in favor of a growing proportion of multi -family units. Many of the single-family detached units that are constructed will 30 31 probably be of smaller size than their 1970's predecessors. It is also likely that proportionally more resources will be de- voted to the maintenance and conservation of existing housing and residential neighborhoods. It is very probable that another major shopping center will be developed during the projection period to meet the area's grow- ing demand for consumer goods retail outlets. Additionally, scattered commercial development is also likely to occur. An- ticipated growth in professional services may result in the lowering of current vacancy rates for office space, and could foster additional office development. Accompanying the projected growth in population and households will be an increase in automobiles and traffic volume on the metropolitan transportation system, given that most of the an- ticipated absolute population growth will occur in adult age categories. Additionally, the trends toward more one -person households and more working women will contribute to growing transportation demands. Major improvements like the Wisconsin bridge and the downtown freeway, and small improvements throughout the system, will hopefully maintain or increase the system's overall efficiency. BIBLIOGRAPHY Dubuque County Metropolitan Area Planning Commission. and Direction, Dubuque, 1973. French, Alexander. "Transportation Energy Considerations", ASCE Transportation Engineering Journal, February 1976. Fullerton, Harold N., and Paul O. F'laim. "New Labor Force Projec- tions to 1990", Monthly Labor Review, December 1976, 3-12. Iowa Employment Security Commission. Dubuque, Iowa Work Force Annual Summaries, 1970-1978. Iowa Department of Job Service. Labor Market Information Review, Dubuque, Metropolitan Area, January 1979. Iowa Department of Job Service. Occupational Outlook to 1985 for Dubuque County, Dubuque, 1977. Iowa Department of Transportation, Division 1990 Transportation Plan Data Update, 1975. Iowa Office for Planning and Programming. 1976. Iowa Office for Planning and Programming. Projections by County, by Age and Sex, 1975-2000," Series I-76, Krutscher, Ronald E., et al. "The Productivity Slowdown and the Out- look to 1985." Monthly Labor Review, (May 1977), 3-8,71-72. Marcin, Thomas C. Outlook for Housing by Type of Unit and Region 1978 to 2000 (Preliminary), Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratories, 1979. Mooney, Thomas T. and John H. Tschetter. "Revised Industry Projec- tions to 1985" Monthly Labor Review, (November 1976), 3-9. U. S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Population Es- timates and Projections, Series P-25, No. 601, U.S. Government Print- ing Office, Washington, D.C., 1975. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau Census of Dubuque, Iowa. Information of Planning and Research Area Economic Projections, U.S. Water Resources Council. Methodology, and Summary Data, Office, Washington, D.C., 1974. U.S. Water Resources Council. 1972 OBERS Projections: Standard Metro -Statistical Areas, Vol. 5, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 1974. "Official Iowa Population No. 2. of the Census. 1975 Special 1972 OBERS Projections: Concepts, Vol. 1, U.S. Government Printing 32 33 APPENDIX DMATS YEAR 2000 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS SURVEY SPRING 1979 QUESTIONNAIRE SUMMARY ANALYSIS TOTAL NUMBER OF SURVEY PARTICIPANTS: 36 NUMBER OF QUESTIONNAIRES COMPLETED: 33 NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS BY MAJOR EMPLOYMENT SECTOR: Durable Goods Mfg. Non -Durable Goods Mfg. Retail Trade Education Transportation, Util- ities SURVEY RESULTS (7) (5) (3) (5) (3) Health Services Finance, Real Es- tate, Insurance Labor Organizations Media, Communications Community Organizations The survey questionnaire contained a total of fifteen (15) multi- ple choice questions, with room for written comments following each question. Nine of the questions asked the respondent to check the amount of absolute growth he expected within a given employment sec- tor during the projection period. Information in the discussion paper and prefacing each of the questions was meant to help the re- spondent put the projected growth in perspective with historical growth. (While the response choices to the growth level questions were in terms of ranges, an attempt has been made to develop an 1 average for the set of responses to each growth level question). ANALYSIS OF SELECTED QUESTIONS: 1. GROWTH OF TOTAL MANUFACTURING: Sixty per cent (60%)of all respondents felt total manufactur- ing will grow by between 2400-4000 jobs. Three of the eleven manufacturing respondents felt that the growth level will be below 2400 jobs while only one thought it would be above 4000 The average projected growth level for all respondents was 3,493 jobs in manufacturing. However, the sum of the averages 1For each growth question, the number of responses (x) to any bounded growth range (Ex: 2400-4000) was multiplied times the mean of that range - (Ex: (x) (2400-4000). Infinite range choices (Ex: Below 2400 or Above 6000) 2 were dealt with by taking the number of responses(x) times 75% of the range limit, in the case of lower end choices (Ex: (x) (.75) (2400). In the case of upper end choices, the number of responses was multiplied times 110% of the range limit indicated (Ex: (x) (1.10) (6000). Products were summed and divided by the total number of responses to obtain an average growth level. to Questions Two and Three, which break total manufactur- ing down into durable goods and non -durable goods manufac- turing, is significantly less. The sum total is 3,161 for all respondents, but only 2,748 for the respondents repre- senting area manufacturing concerns. The average projected growth rate indicated by the manufac- turing respondents would be 110 new jobs per year. During the period 1960-1975, manufacturing jobs were created in the Dubuque area at the average rate of 336 per year. How- ever, between 1970-1975, John Deere alone added new jobs at a rate of 527 per year, clearly making the firm responsible for the lion's share of new growth. 2. GROWTH OF DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING: Almost forty-five percent (45%) of all respondents felt that durable goods manufacturing employment will expand by an ad- ditional 1600-2000 jobs. Forty-one percent (41%) felt that growth would be above 2500 jobs. However, only 27.3% of the manufacturing respondents felt growth will be in excess of 2500. The average projected growth rate for all respondents was 2531, or 101 new jobs per year. Manufacturing respondents indicated a growth rate of about ninety-three (93) new jobs per year. 3. GROWTH OF NON -DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING: Seventy-eight percent (78%) of the manufacturing respondents felt that job growth in this sector will be below 500 jobs. Sixty-three percent (63%) of all non -manufacturing respon- dents felt it will be above 500. The average projected growth level for all respondents was 630 jobs, or about twenty-five-(25) per year. The average was 430 for manufacturing respondents and 683 for the non - manufacturing group. 4 GROWTH IN RETAIL TRADE: Thirty-four percent (34%) of all respondents felt retail trade will grow by 2000-2600 jobs, twenty-two percent (22%) felt it will grow by 2600-3200 jobs and another thirty-four percent (34%) felt the growth level will be above 3200. The average projected growth level was 3007 new jobs, or about 120 per year. If the DMATS area attains a population of 90,000 by 2000, the ratio of population/retail employee would be 9.5 under this growth assumption. The comparable 1975 ratio was 11.2. A comparison with national projections would suggest a year 200 ratio of 10.74, and thus an increase of about 1668 re- tail employees. However, additional employment gains could come about through an enlargement in Dubuque's retail trade area as a result of improved highway connections and the attractive force of an increasing supply of speciality con- sumer goods. 6. GROWTH OF PROFESSIONAL SERVICES: Forty-two percent (42%) of all respondents felt professional services job growth will be below 4000 jobs. Twenty-nine percent (29%) felt it will grow in excess of 5000 jobs. The average projected growth level was 4196, or 168 new jobs per year. If the DMATS area attains a population of 90,000 by 2000, the ratio of population/professional services employees would be 8.54. The comparable 1975 ratio was 11.9 A com- parison with national projections would suggest a year 2000 ratio of 9.98 or an additional 2688 professional jobs. 9. GROWTH IN HEALTH SERVICES: Forty-seven percent (47%) of all respondents felt health services employment growth would be less than 750 new jobs. Fifty-three percent (53%) felt growth would exceed 750 jobs. The average projected growth level was 778, or thirty-one (31) new jobs per year. If the DMATS area attains a population of 90,000 by the year 2000, the ratio of population/health service employee (excluding nursing home employees) would be 36.3 under this growth assumption. The comparable 1975 ratio was 44.3. Thus, the respondents' average growth projection would require about an eighteen percent (18%) increase in service intensity unless Dubuque's health services market area increased significantly. 11. COMMUTING WORKERS: Fifty-two percent (52%) of all respondents felt that the rate of commuting will increase, in keeping with past trends. An- other 38.7 percent felt the rate would remain about the same. 12. MANUFACTURING GROWTH-DMATS vs. ALL U.S. SMSA'S: Forty-six percent (46%) of all respondents felt manufactur- ing employment will grow in the DMATS area at about the same rate as it is expected to grow for the nation as a whole. How- ever, 55.6% of the manufacturing respondents felt that manufac- turing will grow at a slower rate than the projected national average. SUMMARY FINDINGS: Manufacturing respondents were generally more conservative in their estimates of future manufacturing growth than were non - manufacturing respondents. A respondents estimation of total employment growth generally coincided with his estimation of future manufacturing growth. If the respondent was optimistic about manufacturing growth he was also inclined to be optimistic about overall employment growth. The same relation also applies with respect to con- servative (]rowth estimates. The majority of respondents felt that it is reasonable to as- sume that local manufacturing will decline in relative impor- tance proportionally to that projected for the nation as a whole. Participant responses regarding sectoral growth would call for less growth than was indicated in the preliminary projections and suggests a need to revise the projections downward.