2 28 11 SCTF Work Session_Study on Crime & Poverty Completed Final Pre
CONTACT:
Randy Gehl, Public Information Officer
O: 563.589.4151, C: 563.599.2448
rgehl@cityofdubuque.org
N E W S R E L E A S E
Jan. 17, 2011 – FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Study Completed on Dubuque Crime & Poverty
DUBUQUE, Iowa – The Northern Illinois University Center for Governmental Studies (NIU/CGS)
has completed its 2010 Quantitative Research Study on Crime and Poverty in Dubuque. The
study was commissioned last spring by the City of Dubuque after being recommended to the
Dubuque City Council by the Safe Community Task Force.
The study was designed to compare community perceptions of crime in Dubuque to actual
crime data. The study included: 1) a public opinion survey 2) an analysis of Dubuque’s crime
rates and trends over time compared to similarly sized communities in Iowa; 3) an analysis of
Dubuque’s crime incidents over time, and the extent to which Section 8 housing recipients are
connected to crime; 4) a review of research studies related to poverty, Section 8 housing
assistance, crime, fear of crime, and crime prevention; and 5) a set of recommendations based
on the research and evidence. To explore these issues, the following general research questions
were posed:
Do the perceptions of criminal activity and its causes in Dubuque match what is actually
happening?
Within categories of crime with significant increases in arrests, what policies or
strategies can effectively decrease crime?
If there are cases where there are community perceptions of increased criminal activity
but no evidence to support the perception, what policies or strategies can effectively
address the concerns?
The resulting 782-page study report is complex and the authors warn throughout of various
limitations with the data and analysis. NIU also states that readers are “strongly cautioned to not
take singular statements, findings, maps or graphs contained in the report and examine or
present them as a stand-alone finding. Rather, the analysis and report must be viewed in the full
context and breadth of the examination, the totality of the findings and the broader social factors
that underlie the phenomenon under study.”
NIU/CGS will make a formal presentation of the study results at a public meeting of the Safe
Community Task Force on Tuesday, Jan. 25, at 6:00 p.m. in City Council Chambers at the
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Historic Federal Building at 350 West 6 Street. This presentation will be televised live on City
Cable Channel 8 on the Mediacom cable system and will also be streamed live and archived
online at www.cityofdubuque.org/media. A complete copy of the report will be available online
beginning at 8 a.m. on Tuesday, Jan. 18, at www.cityofdubuque.org/safecommunity. Printed
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copies will also be available at the City Clerk’s Office at City Hall at 50 West 13 Street, Human
Rights Department in City Hall Annex at 1300 Main Street, Carnegie-Stout Public Library
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Reference Desk at 360 West 11 Street, and the Dubuque Police Department at 770 Iowa Street.
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The report consists of three main sections: a literature review and Section 8 Assisted
Housing Program review, community survey and perception analysis, and quantitative analysis.
While the following information represents the attempts of City staff to summarize the findings
they think the majority of the public will be most interested in, residents are encouraged to read
the study in its entirety and consider it as a whole before drawing conclusions.
Literature Review
As part of the study, NIU/CGS reviewed research that has been done regarding general
causes and characteristics of crime in mid-sized communities, the relationship between Section 8
housing and crime, effective crime prevention strategies, and the factors that contribute to
perception of increased crime and ways to alleviate those perceptions. They did not review
research on the causes of poverty or the reasons poverty and crime tend to be interrelated. In
general, the research they reviewed shows:
Section 8 housing projects that are smaller, more dispersed garden-style, have defensible
space, and are located in less resource poor neighborhoods tend not to be linked to crime
and crime dispersion, while large high-rise towers that are concentrated in resource poor
neighborhoods do tend to affect crime rates.
Community policing, problem-oriented policing, and hot spots policing are effective crime
prevention strategies and community policing tends to reduce fear through improving
police relations with citizens and reducing social and physical incivilities.
There is little evidence to suggest that curfews effectively reduce juvenile crime.
The use of closed-circuit television is moderately effective in reducing crime in parking
lots, but not in other places such as city/town centers, public transportation systems, or
public housing areas.
Areas with high levels of concentrated disadvantages (high levels of poverty,
unemployment, female-headed households, and minority concentrations) tend to also
have high violent crime rates.
Researchers caution against blanket strategies such as installing closed-circuit cameras
and enacting juvenile curfews as these approaches may not be sufficiently tailored to the
particular needs of a distressed neighborhood.
Community Survey and Perception Analysis
The NIU Public Opinion Laboratory performed a community perception survey by telephone.
Beginning on June 17, 2010, they interviewed 502 residents over the age of 18 whose land-line
phone numbers were randomly selected. Some of the perceptions survey findings include:
84 percent of those surveyed have lived in Dubuque for 11 years or more; 42 percent
have lived in Dubuque for 35 years or more.
88 percent of respondents said their neighborhood was an excellent or good place to live.
19 percent of respondents said they felt very or somewhat unsafe downtown during the
daytime and 70 percent said they felt very or somewhat unsafe downtown at night.
(“Downtown” was not geographically defined by the survey.)
2 percent of respondents said they felt very or somewhat unsafe in their own
neighborhood during the daytime. Eleven percent said they felt very or somewhat unsafe
in their own neighborhood at night.
76 percent indicated crime was a major or moderate problem in Dubuque.
Of those who have lived in Dubuque at least five years, 89 percent said that crime has
increased significantly or somewhat within the past five years.
57 percent indicated the City of Dubuque was doing an excellent or good job in addressing
crime, while 68 percent indicated the Police Department was doing an excellent or good
job in addressing crime.
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Comparative and Trend Analysis
NIU/CGS used the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) from 2004-2009 to analyze how
Dubuque’s average crime rate and crime trends compared to the following peer communities in
Iowa: Ames, Cedar Rapids, Council Bluffs, Davenport, Des Moines, Iowa City, Sioux City,
Waterloo, and West Des Moines. The analysis focused specifically on UCR property crimes and
UCR violent crimes.
In the process of conducting the analysis, NIU/CGS discovered an anomaly in the data
related to aggravated and simple assaults. Dubuque reported much higher levels of aggravated
than simple assaults, while all other cities reported the reverse. Further investigation revealed
that Dubuque has been classifying all “assaults with injury” as “aggravated assaults.” However,
whether or not an “assault with injury” qualifies as an aggravated assault for UCR reporting
purposes depends on the extent of the injury. Most of the “assault with injury” cases in Dubuque
involved minor injuries such as scratches, bumps, and bruises, which do not fit the UCR definition
of “aggravated assault” and, consequently, should have been reported as “simple assaults,” and
not reported as “aggravated results” included in the UCR violent crime count. If Dubuque assaults
for 2009 would have been accurately classified, the numbers reported to UCR would have been
only 15 aggravated assaults, rather than the 265 that were reported. As a result, NIU/CGS
analyzed violent crime in two ways: using the UCR violent crime numbers alone (which, for
Dubuque, include numerous simple assaults misclassified as aggravated assaults) and then
using the violent crime numbers including both simple and aggravated assaults for all
communities.
In conducting the comparative analysis, NIU addressed the perception that crime is
increasing and that it is worse in Dubuque than in other comparable Iowa cities. The statistical
analysis indicated that:
Overall, Dubuque’s crime profile is not uniquely different from other cities.
Across the 10 cities, as the percent of families with incomes below poverty level increases,
so does the average violent crime rate.
Dubuque does not have uniquely high rates of violent crime, with the only exception being
aggravated assault, the most common violent crime. When analyzing UCR violent crime,
Dubuque reported the third-highest average UCR violent crime rate and this difference
from the average was statistically significant. This can be attributed to the
misclassification previously mentioned.
However, when simple assault and aggravated assault rates are added together for all of
the communities, Dubuque’s average violent crime rate is in the middle instead of in the
top three.
Dubuque ranks as follows amongst the 10 cities:
Third lowest in property crime
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Fifth in violent crime (includes simple assault; third highest without simple assault)
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Fourth lowest in family poverty, third lowest in household poverty, near income
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inequality average
Fifth in median household income
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Is staffed with 1.7 sworn officers per 1,000 residents, compared to 1.6 average
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Local Crime and Arrest Data
NIU/CGS analyzed over 350,000 individual arrest records and Section 8 housing program
files for the 2006-2009 timeframe. There were approximately 15,900 adult arrests during this
timeframe. NIU/CGS analyzed the demographic characteristics of arrestees and victims, along
with arrestee addresses, victim addresses, complainant addresses and incident locations,
comparing that information to the Section 8 database to determine the extent to which authorized
Section 8 voucher recipients were committing, being victimized by, and reporting crime as
compared to the non-Section 8 population. NIU also performed a spatial analysis to show where
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crime is concentrated in the City, where Section 8 units are concentrated, and to then show the
extent to which the areas where crime is occurring overlap with areas where Section 8 rental
recipients live. Throughout the report, evidence of income and poverty are shown to be strongly
associated with various elements of crime.
In considering demographics of arrestees, victims, and complainants, the analysis shows:
The majority of adult arrestees was adults under age 40 and included 9,182 males and
3,528 females.
Dubuque’s proportion of arrestees who are white is 79.3 percent, compared to 78.5
percent at the State level and 69.8 percent at the national level.
Dubuque’s proportion of arrestees who are Black/African-American is 19.9 percent,
compared to 19.3 percent at the state level and 27.9 percent at the national level.
Dubuque’s proportion of adult arrestees who are of “other races” is 0.8 percent as
compared to 2.3 percent at the State and national levels.
Authorized Section 8 participants on average represent 5.2 percent of Dubuque’s
population; 5.8 percent of Dubuque’s unique adult arrestees were, on average,
Authorized Section 8 participants.
Authorized Section 8 participants experience a higher ratio of adult arrests (5.4 percent)
within their population group than non-Section 8 residents experience (3.4 percent) within
non-Section 8 population.
Authorized Section 8 participants experience slightly higher victimization rates than non-
Section 8 residents (5.9 percent on average compared to 5.4 percent) and somewhat
lower complainant rates than non-Section 8 residents (5.7 percent on average compared
to 6.2 percent).
When adding in the persons who gave Section 8 addresses at the time of a crime incident
but who were not matched as an authorized Section 8 participant at that time, the rates of
victimization overall are 1.6 times greater for Section 8 residents than non-Section 8
residents and the adult arrest rates are overall 2.49 times as high as the rates for non-
Section 8 residents.
In considering the general perception that there is a higher rate of crime downtown and that
crime generally tends to spread to neighboring blocks, the analysis revealed that:
Except for UCR property crimes, crime hotspots are more likely to occur downtown.
UCR violent and UCR non-violent crimes appeared to diffuse, especially downtown –
some blocks with low or average rates of violent crime in 2006 that neighbored blocks with
high rates became blocks with high rates in 2008.
Property crimes in the downtown area exhibited the opposite tendency, to become more
average when neighboring blocks with high rates in 2006.
These generalizations, and the hotspot analysis in particular, are tentative, not conclusive.
How hotspots are defined can alter results significantly.
In considering the perception whether Section 8 could be the cause of crime and whether
crime is expanding from Section 8 areas to other areas of the City, the statistical analysis shows
that:
There is a general association between poverty and crime in the comparative analysis of
Iowa cities.
In looking at “hotspots” (areas where there is either a concentration of Section 8
participants or a concentration of certain types of crime occurring):
The hotspot analysis helps visualize where crime and Section 8 properties are
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located but does not support a conclusion that there is a causal relationship.
The preponderance of crime in Dubuque is concentrated around the city center, as
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are the preponderance of Section 8 participants.
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Many Section 8 concentrated areas do not match concentrated crime hotspots;
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crime hotspots emerge in locations where there is not a concentration of Section 8
housing.
On average 26 percent of Section 8 hotspots coincide with eight different types of
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crime hotspots, mostly due to property crime.
A total of 7 out of 10 UCR violent crime hotspots overlapped with Section 8
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hotspots in 2006 and 11 out of 13 overlapped in 2008. But this implicates only 17.5
percent of the total number of Section 8 hotspots; 82.5 percent of Section 8
hotspots are not implicated in UCR violent crime.
Two-thirds of Section 8 hotspots overlap or are contingent with UCR Property crime
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hotspots.
Most crime attributed to Section 8 housing does not diffuse into other areas; more than
random chance predicts, victims who live in Section 8 housing are more likely to be
victimized at Section 8 addresses, by arrestees who live at Section 8 addresses and
crimes occurring at Section 8 addresses are more likely to be perpetrated by arrestees
reporting a Section 8 address.
Violent crimes make up nearly twice as high a percentage of crimes occurring at Section 8
addresses than the share reported at non-Section 8 addresses.
The only other type of crime that occurs at a much higher proportion at Section 8
addresses than non-Section 8 addresses involves local ordinance charges; the Section 8
rate is over five times larger than the non-Section 8 rate.
Property crimes, DUIs, drug and alcohol related crimes and civil disorder make up a lower
proportion of crimes at Section 8 locations.
NIU/CGS Recommendations
NIU/CGS offered the following recommendations based on the analysis:
use the data analysis in the study as a springboard for objective dialogue to make
informed decisions;
invest in, partner with, and empower at-risk neighborhoods;
address downtown crime hotspots after using community policing strategies to build
relationships;
disperse Section 8 housing unit locations into neighborhoods with greater social
resources; and
address poverty wherever it occurs and provide assistance to the impoverished so they
can regain their financial footing
Next Steps
The Safe Community Task Force will review the report and consider additional
recommendations to the Dubuque City Council.
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