Green House Gas Reduction_Support of 2030 PlanMasterpiece on the Mississippi
TO: The Honorable Mayor and City Council Members
FROM: Michael C. Van Milligen, City Manager
SUBJECT: Support of 50% by 2030 Target
DATE: August 11, 2011
Dubuque
bitil
All- AmedcaCity
1111 I
2007
Sustainability Coordinator Cori Burbach and Resource Management Coordinator Paul
Schultz are recommending approval of the 50% by 2030 greenhouse gas reduction
target as presented by Green Dubuque and a community -based Task Force at the
July 5, 2011 City Council Work Session. This is consistent with one of the Mayor and
the City Council's top priorities, Sustainable Dubuque.
The Beginning
After serving 10 years on the City Council, Roy D. Buol ran for the office of Mayor in
2005. His platform was based upon "engaging citizens as partners," and what he heard
from thousands of citizens was a consistent theme surrounding water quality, recycling,
green space, public transit, cultural vitality, accessibility and downtown revitalization.
During the 2006 City Council goal- setting process, Mayor Buol proposed and received
full support from his council colleagues to focus on sustainability as a City top priority,
stating "cities that get out in front on sustainability will have competitive economic
advantages in the future." What soon became known as Sustainable Dubuque is a City
Council adopted, community- created, and citizen -led initiative whose story officially
begins in 2006. A City Council priority each year since, we are continually working to
expand awareness, create partnerships, and encourage initiatives involving all sectors
of our community. Dubuque became an early leader on the sustainability front.
Citizen Engagement from the Start
Igniting our early efforts was the selection by the American Institute of Architects as one
of six cities in the nation to receive a grant for professional analysis and
recommendations on creating a sustainable path to the future. The City Council moved
immediately to create a city -wide citizen task force, supported by City Staff, to develop a
comprehensive definition of what sustainability meant to our community. Aptly named
the "Sustainable Dubuque Task Force," the representation included individuals who
brought diverse backgrounds and interests to the process, including local government,
schools, utility companies, religious organizations, neighborhood associations, youth
organizations, non - profits, environmental organizations and business stakeholders. The
group met over the next two years, collecting community -wide input to develop a vision.
The process also included presentations to community organizations and businesses to
discuss targeted visions and ideas. Additionally, nearly 900 community surveys were
completed. The results of these efforts, along with other data collected by the task
force, were used to develop the Sustainable Dubuque vision and model which focuses
on a balanced approach to life quality and includes "economic prosperity, environmental
integrity, and social /cultural vibrancy." The collective desire of our citizens to create
value and a legacy of life quality through sustainable practices and programs was
defined.
An Organized & Collaborative Approach By and For Citizens
"Dubuque is a viable, livable, and equitable community. We embrace economic
prosperity, environmental integrity, and social /cultural vibrancy to create a sustainable
legacy for generations to come." In order to implement that vision, the task force
defined 11 key principles to guide the community's path to a more sustainable future.
These include: Regional Economy, Smart Energy Use, Resource Management,
Community Design, Green Buildings, Healthy Local Foods, Community Knowledge,
Reasonable Mobility, Healthy Air, Clean Water, and Native Plants & Animals.
Community Engagement is Occurring Across a Broad Spectrum
When the citizen task force brought its final recommendation for Sustainable Dubuque
to the City Council in 2008, it came with the support of the private, non - profit, and public
sectors, as well as residents because of the grassroots process that had been
implemented at the outset. The Sustainable Dubuque framework has become the lens
through which city operations are developed and analyzed. Likewise, there are
numerous community initiatives active such as Project Hope, Green Vision Schools,
and the Petal Project to name a few, along with businesses that are finding ways to
save money and improve their environment and their community by implementing the
principles that define Sustainable Dubuque.
Sustainable Dubuque is the City's Brand
Dubuque has established itself as a regional and national leader in its ability to
collaboratively partner to achieve community goals. What Dubuque is achieving
collectively today through its Sustainable Dubuque model, is the direct result of the
knowledge and understanding that sustainability is a balanced approach to long term
life quality. It is a rare approach to life quality where no one in the community is
excluded...everyone who wants to do so, can participate and contribute. That is what is
unique in Dubuque's ability to continue to innovate and transform. Most recently, the
City of Dubuque and its partners are working to create a replicable model of
sustainability for cities under 200,000, where over 40 percent of the US population lives.
Sustainable Dubuque is who and what we are; it is our Brand; it is our recognizable
logo; and it is our future.
2
I concur with the recommendation and respectfully request Mayor and City Council
approval.
Michael C. Van Milligen
MCVM:jh
Attachment
cc: Barry Lindahl, City Attorney
Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager
Cori Burbach, Sustainability Coordinator
Paul Schultz, Resource Management Coordinator
3
Masterpiece on the Mississippi
TO: Michael Van Milligen, City Manager
FROM: Cori Burbach, Sustainability Coordinator
Paul Schultz, Resource Management Coordinator
SUBJECT: Support of 50% by 2030 Target
DATE: August 8, 2011
Dubuque
All-America City
1
2007
INTRODUCTION
The purpose of this memo is to request City Council approval of the 50% by 2030
greenhouse gas reduction target as presented by Green Dubuque and a community -
based task force at a July 5, 2011 work session.
BACKGROUND
In 2006, Mayor Roy Buol signed the U. S. Conference of Mayors Climate Action
Agreement in support of the Kyoto Protocol to Reduce Global Warming. Each year
since, the Mayor and City Council have identified becoming a Sustainable City as one of
their top priorities for our community.
As part of its efforts to become more sustainable, the City of Dubuque joined ICLEI-
Local Governments for Sustainability. ICLEI, an international organization of over 1,000
cities, provides guidelines, tools and technical support to facilitate local governments'
efforts to achieve climate protection goals and create more sustainable communities.
ICLEI defines a Five Milestones for Climate Protection process for local governments to
follow.
1. Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts.
2. Adopt an emissions reduction target.
3. Develop a local climate action plan.
4. Implement policies and measures.
5. Monitor and verify results.
Council has adopted a municipal greenhouse gas baseline inventory and is pursuing
further information regarding targets for reduction in our own carbon footprint and
strategies to achieve those targets. Direct municipal operations make up less than 10%
of the community's comprehensive footprint, though municipal policy and planning
strategies will undoubtedly impact other sectors' footprint as well.
ICLEI's Milestone process refers to adoption of a community -wide target and plan for
greenhouse gas reduction. The adoption of the 50% by 2030 target, which includes
suggested municipal actions, would fulfill the requirements of milestones #2. The City
would still be able to set its own targets in addition to supporting the community plan if
that was Council's direction.
DISCUSSION
The adoption of a community GHG reduction target is an important step in helping to
achieve the Sustainable Dubuque vision. The 50% by 2030 document identifies
potential practices and projects that will help the City, its partners, and residents operate
more sustainably, and metrics against which we can measure our progress. It makes
recommendations that, if implemented, would reduce the community's emissions 50%
by 2030, based on a 2003 baseline.
In addition to contributing to global environmental solutions, the 50% by 2030 target
contributes to our community's economic prosperity, environmental integrity, and
social /cultural vibrancy as demonstrated in the Dubuque GHG Reduction Plan version
1.1
• Economic prosperity: Target includes recommendations for the development of
local energy sources, opportunities for green jobs, emphasis on a local economy,
and a more efficient transportation system.
• Environmental integrity: Innovative actions can help create cleaner air, water and
soil; minimize waste; and promote green space and healthy ecosystems.
• Social /cultural vibrancy: When implemented, the plan will assist in reducing traffic
congestion, improving the health and safety of residents, providing a sense of
community, and showcasing Dubuque's commitment to sustainability.
Green Dubuque is requesting City Council adoption of the 50% by 2030 target. Though
recommended actions are included in the document, it is Green Dubuque's intention to
work with the City and other partners to examine these recommendations through a
community engagement process before making final recommendations for a community
Climate Action Plan.
Green Dubuque has been a key partner in the City's efforts to achieve the Sustainable
Dubuque vision. Several members of the task force that created the 50% by 2030 plan
have been involved in the Sustainable Dubuque Task Force, Dubuque 2.0, and other
organizations and efforts to achieve that vision. They partnered with the City and
private organizations in Dubuque to gather the relevant data for the report, and have
met with several businesses, held public input sessions, ran public service
announcements, and gathered community signatures, all in an effort to build community
support for the target.
The task force has requested City Council adoption of the 50% by 2030 target.
Adoption would represent the City's commitment to work towards that community -wide
goal. Staff would continue to work with the task force to establish a process for an
annual progress report. The key indicators contained in this report will also be
incorporated into the Sustainable Dubuque Performance Metrics project being
completed by the University of Iowa Iowa Initiative for Sustainable Communities. City
staff, Green Dubuque, Dubuque 2.0, and other partners will also coordinate to educate
and engage the community about the recommended target, recommended actions, and
the effect of greenhouse gas emissions.
RECOMMENDATION
Staff recommends City Council approval of the 50% by 2030 community greenhouse
gas reduction target, which uses 2003 as its baseline for GHG emissions.
attachment
cc: Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager
Teri Goodmann, Assistant City Manager
Raki Giannakouros, Green Dubuque
Jason Schatz, Green Dubuque
Eric Dregne, Community Foundation of Greater Dubuque
50 2030
gie dubuque
GHG REDUCTION PLAN
VERSION 1.1
June 2011
www. dub uqueGHGpl an. org
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ii
INTRODUCTION 1
Dubuque GHG Reduction Task Force 1
The Goal 1
Why this Plan is Unique 2
Report Preview 2
GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE 3
Why the Climate is Changing 3
How the Climate is Changing 5
Climate Change in the Midwest 9
DUBUQUE COMMUNITY: TARGETS & TRENDS 13
2003, 2007, & 2009 Emissions 13
Reduction Targets 14
Emissions Trends 16
GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACTIONS 19
Introduction 19
Waste Management 20
Local Energy 23
Transportation 28
The Built Environment 33
Other Reductions 40
TOTAL REDUCTIONS 43
Scenarios 43
Feasibility of 50% by 2030 45
BENEFITS FOR DUBUQUE COMMUNITY 46
Introduction 46
Health 46
Economic Prosperity 47
Quality of Life 49
Summary 50
REFERENCES 52
APPENDIX A (Calculations and assumptions) 54
APPENDIX B (Glossary of tenns) 58
APPENDIX C (Emissions budgets and reduction targets) 60
APPENDIX D (Community workshop summary 06/02/11) 61
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
50% BY 2030 IN A NUTSHELL
50% by 2030 is a community driven effort to unite Dubuque in support of 50% local
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2030 (from 2003 levels). This report is version 1.0 of a
community -wide plan to help us achieve that goal. The plan provides an initial outline but is intended
to be further developed and refined through community input, consultation with local leaders and
stakeholders, and the emergence of new emission reduction opportunities.
There are three key points we hope to convey in this report. First, the motivation behind the
50% by 2030 target; second, how we can achieve that goal; and third, the benefits Dubuque will
receive in the process. Here are those three points in a nutshell:
1) We care about climate change because we care about people. While climate change affects
many important aspects of our world, our primary concern is people. And the reality is that a
stable climate is good for people —good for their water and food supplies, economic prosperity,
health, the weather they face, the ecosystems they rely on, and much more. The more we can
prevent rapid climate change, the better off people will be.
2) Dubuque can reduce its GHG emissions by 50% by 2030. The Dubuque GHG Plan
demonstrates that the solutions to this challenge are already at our fingertips. We do not have
to wait for a Federal mandate or new technology to start building a better community. 82% of
the reductions discussed in this plan are already in some stage of consideration, planning, or
implementation in Dubuque, making us entirely capable of addressing this problem right now
while reaping significant benefits in the process.
3) This plan is good for Dubuque. GHG reduction may be the common thread tying this plan
together, but it is by no means the only or even the main benefit. The options outlined in the
plan are predominantly simple, no- regret solutions that are in Dubuque's interest regardless of
GHG reduction. In other words, the primary benefits will be to the health, economic prosperity,
and quality of life of our community.
ii
ABOUT 50% BY 2030
Every great achievement starts with two things a goal, and a plan. The goal should be
specific, ambitious, and attainable. The plan should be detailed, practical, and effective. Without both
a goal and a plan we will not know where we are going or how to get there, let alone the best way to
get there.
The Dubuque community businesses, government leaders, and individual citizens has been
working to reduce GHG emissions but lacks a specific goal to guide, motivate, and gauge the success
of its efforts. There is also no comprehensive plan to ensure that GHG reduction in Dubuque is
prioritized in terms of effectiveness and immediate benefits to the community.
In response to this need, the Dubuque Community GHG Reduction Task Force was convened in
2010, with representatives from local non - profits, businesses, government, faith -based organizations,
and individual citizens. Over the following year, the Task Force agreed on a feasible GHG reduction
goal and crafted a detailed plan to help the community achieve it.
The goal is to unite the community behind 50 °o GHG reduction by 2030 and begin taking
measurable steps toward that goal. Beyond that, we seek to re- engage the community in the discussion
of climate change by showing the local government, businesses, and individual citizens the most
effective, feasible, and beneficial GHG reduction opportunities available to them.
Why This Plan is Unique
There is currently no GHG reduction goal or plan in Dubuque, and as far as we know this is a
one -of -a -kind effort in the entire country. Other cities have made impressive strides in GHG reduction.
50°0 by 2030 builds on those pioneering efforts to create a truly unique initiative that is highly specific,
carefully quantified, and purely community driven. These unique traits will make Dubuque an
innovative national leader in local sustainability and make us the first community to map out a specific
path to 50°0 GHG reduction.
Having a detailed plan also will allow Dubuque to optimize our set of solutions, which were
selected according to two major criteria:
a They are already available to Dubuque. 82 °o of the reductions discussed in this plan are
already in some stage of consideration, plaunning, or implementation (seep. 5).
a They are no- regret solutions, meaning that they are in the community's interest to implement
regardless of their impact on climate change. In other words, the primary benefits of most
recommendations will be to the health, economic prosperity, and quality of life in Dubuque.
Why 50% by 2030?
Simply stated, 50 °o by 2030 is the minimum global GHG reduction necessary to keep
atmospheric CO2 concentrations below 450 ppm and maintain a climate hospitable to human health and
welfare. The temperature increase most likely to occur at 450 ppm is 3.6 "F (2 "C), with a 54 °o chance
of a greater increase. In other words, 50 °o by 2030 provides close to a 50/50 chance of keeping
temperatures within tolerable and adaptable limits. Of course, the more we can reduce GHG emissions,
the more hospitable our climate will be, but 50°0 reduction by 2030 is an excellent start.
TOTAL REDUCTIONS
The total GHG reduction we achieve by 2030 depends on two things: what we do in Dubuque,
and external trends in vehicle and electricity emissions. We created three scenarios for different
external trends while keeping Dubuque's actions constant.
I Low - Emissions Scenario, in which current commitments toward renewable energy and vehicle
fuel efficiency are met, and the positive trends created by those commitments continue
thereafter. Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve over 50% reduction by 2030 using the
actions described in the plan (Table 1).
I Medium- Emissions Scenario, in which current commitments toward renewables and vehicle
efficiency are met, but improvements beyond that are only moderate, being comparable to trends
for the past decades. Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve approximately 45% reduction
by 2030 using the actions described in the plan.
I High- Emissions Scenario, in which current trends and commitments toward renewables and
vehicle efficiency are largely met, but improvements beyond those commitments are minimal,
often being less than recent trends. Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve approximately
40% reduction by 2030 using the actions described in the plan.
Table 1 Total GHG emission reductions by 2030 (tonnes CO_e/ year) under three external emissions scenarios A list of
individual reductions can be found in Table 2 on p 8
Sector
Sector
High-
emissions
Low-
emissions
Waste
Local energy
Transportation
Built Environment
Other reductions
External trends
61,827
192,030
36,532
130,124
35,641
27,515
61,105
180,149
35,001
128,843
35,641
91,084
59,953
161,183
33,561
126,797
35,641
182,801
Total reductions
483,669
531,823
599,936
Totals
Low-
High- Mid -range Low -
emissions emissions
2003 emissions
2009 emissions
Total reductions
(from above)
2030 emissions
(estimated)
1,054,216 1,054,216 1,054,216
1,114,785 1,114,785 1,114,785
483,669 531,823 599,936
631,116 582,962 514,849
Percent reduction
from 2003 levels:
40.1% 44.7% 51.2%
In summary, estimated reductions from this plan range from 40 -51 °o by 2030. Even in the
high - emissions scenario, the Dubuque community can still achieve 40 °o reduction by 2030 using only
the actions described in this plan. Notably, the current plan only includes actions that are currently
available to Dubuque and does not include any additional GHG reduction opportunities that may arise
over the next 20 years. It would be surprising indeed if significant new opportunities did not arise over
the coming decades, especially considering that most of the reductions described in this plan have
arisen only in the past five years.
iv
FEASIBILITY OF 500/o BY 2030
This plan was designed to pnontize existing GHG reduction actions in the Dubuque
community And in fact, half of the reductions in this plan consist of actions that are already in
progress (31 %) or are firmly planned and merely awaiting implementation (19 %), such as the SW
Artenal and Intennodal Transportation Facility An additional 32% of proposed reductions have been
studied and are under consideration within the community (e g the wood waste CHP system described
in the Local Energy section)
In total, that is 82% of proposed reductions that are under consideration; planned and
awaiting full funding or final approval; or are already occurring in Dubuque Only a small
portion of the reduction relies on external trends and proposals newly set out in this plan. In other
words, the actions necessary to achieve 50% GHG reduction are already in hand, and we have nearly
two hill decades until 2030 to bwld on this already - impressive foundation Setting this imtial target
will help spur local and regional innovation, bnng focus to Dubuque's pursuit of GHG reduction, and
bnng exciting new opportunities to our city
New
Proposals 1%
Fig El Percent of total GHG reductions by 2030 (in mid -range external emissions scenano) from external reduction
trends, initiatives that are already in progress in Dubuque, initiatives that are already planned or being planned for Dubuque,
initiatives that have been studied and are under consideration, and new opportunities proposed in this plan Where there is
overlap in reductions (e g an either -or situation between two potential actions), the action closer to implementation was
chosen and included in estimates, while the other was excluded
v
BENEFITS TO DUBUQUE
GHG reduction may be the common thread tying all of these options together, but it is by no
means the only or even main benefit. The vast majority of options in this plan are "no- regret solutions"
that are in the community's interest regardless of climate impact. In other words, the primary benefits
of most recommendations will be to local health, economic prosperity, and quality of life.
Health
a Air quality. Reducing driving miles and traffic congestion improves local air quality. Also, any
action that reduces energy use reduces the amount of energy demanded from coal burning power
plants, leading to fewer emissions of particulate matter and other health hazards.
a Urban Heat Island (UHI) minimization. The UHI is basically the local "island" of elevated
temperatures that occurs in urban environments due to absorption of sunlight on dark urban
surfaces. Actions in this plan can minimize this effect and reduce heat stress and levels of
temperature- sensitive air pollutants.
a Physical fitness. Increased viability of pedestrian and bicycle travel options will facilitate active
transport and recreation, yielding improvements in physical fitness.
a Safety. Compact infrastructure means more compact coverage areas for police, fire fighters, and
emergency medical services. Also, more - complete, less -busy streets reduce collision rates.
Economic Prosperity
a Local Investment. In the past five years. Dubuque has received over $10 million in grants and
investment because of its sustainability efforts. IBM, which brought 1300 jobs to our city, cited
Dubuque's sustainability vision as a major factor setting it apart from other candidate cities.
a Local businesses. Eagle Point Solar, Four Seasons Geothermal, 7th Power Sustainable, Durrant,
IBM. Dittmer Recycling, Gronen Restoration, and many other local businesses are partially or
exclusively focused on sustainability and GHG reduction. Such businesses will continue to choose
Dubuque if we continue to demonstrate dedication to progress and innovation.
I Infrastructure and jobs. The proposed Intermodal Transportation Facility is anticipated to create
over 100 jobs and between $100 and $200 million in benefits over the next 30 years. This is only
one example, but any new infrastructure will create jobs.
a Downtown revitalization. The Port of Dubuque and Historic Millwork District are two recent
examples of re- developing existing City space and infrastructure, and are responsible for attracting
countless tourists, residents, and investment dollars into the community.
a Local spending, local prosperity. When energy dollars are spent on locally generated energy, or
when energy efficiency allows consumers to keep more money in their pockets, that money is
retained in the local economy rather than being sent elsewhere for fossil fuels.
a Energy efficiency yields sustained savings on utility bills for local residents and business owners.
Basically, you do not have to pay for energy you do not use.
I Transportation. More efficient transportation networks and viable mobility alternatives can save
Dubuque residents money by facilitating fewer driving miles, less gridlock and congestion, and less
need for as many vehicles as less - expensive travel options continue to develop.
I Reducing local government operating costs. Many of the options in this plan minimize the cost
of local government services, representing significant savings to taxpayers.
I Residential and commercial renewable energy projects give property owners control and
certainty over their energy costs, and can result in significant cost savings over the long run.
I Health Benefits. In general, health benefits also yield economic benefits by lowering health care
costs, increasing worker productivity, and reducing absenteeism at schools and workplaces.
vi
°utility of Life
a Most of the benefits summarized above also represent improvements in quality of life. Although
we can portray health and other benefits in economic terms, those dollars and cents represent real
people whose health and quality of life is difficult to put a price tag on.
a Improved mobility. Over 50 °o of Dubuque residents belong to at least one group that historically
has been poorly- served by conventional transportation systems (those aged 12 -15: senior citizens:
people with disabilities: households with no vehicle or difficulty affording a vehicle: and
households with only one vehicle per two or more adults). This represents an enormous latent
demand for safer, less expensive, and more convenient mobility options that a more complete
transportation system can provide.
a Outdoor aesthetics. Natural areas, green space, and city planning will improve the aesthetics of
the landscape.
a Indoor aesthetics. Many programs discussed in this plan facilitate indoor environmental
improvements in buildings, which can yield fresher air, comfortable building temperatures, natural
lighting, and other traits that enhance work environments and improve the health, morale, and
productivity of employees.
vii
Table 2 GHG reduction actions and resulting emissions reductions by 2030 in Dubuque under a low- emissions scenario
* *Only counted as 2,000 additional tonnesiyear when combined with methane- gas -to- energy system at DMASWA
viii
Reduction Action
Tonnes CO2elyear
Status
Waste
DMAWA methane capture CHP (onsite power gen)
57,953
Planned
or
DMASWA methane flaring
22,422
In progress
50% waste diversion
TBA
Under consideration
80% foodscrap diversion (3rd turbine at WPCP)
* *5955
Under consideration
Waste Subtotal
59,953
-
Local Energy
Wood Waste CHP $40 /ton wood
95,228
Under consideration
Wood Waste CHP $70 /ton wood
146,052
Under consideration
or
Combined Heat and Biochar - $40 /ton wood (75% capacity)
40,793
New proposal
Combined Heat and Biochar - $70 /ton wood (75% capacity)
88,475
New proposal
Solar /PPA
12,861
I n progress
Ground Source Heat Pumps
2,031
In progress
Property tax incentives
*100s
New proposal
Second NatureNUatts Green
138
In progress
Local Energy Subtotal
ilk-,i`- _
Transportation I
Complete Streets
17,469
In progress
Bus system transformation
376
In progress
Fuel efficient buses
1,008
In progress
Southwest Arterial
7,762
Planned
Dubuque Smarter City ITS
4,591
In progress
Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Facility
2,255
Planned
Particle filters on City vehicles
861 (not included in totals)
New proposal
Unbundled rents from parking
*100s
New proposal
Transportation Subtotal
33,561
-
Built Environment
ECIA Petal Project
13,674
In progress
WPCP anaerobic digestion upgrade
791
In progress
WPCP methane capture power gen
2,653
Planned
7e Power Sustainability /Dubuque School Partnership
889
In progress
IBM Smarter City — Pilot
2,271
In progress
IBM Smarter City — Citywide
51,760
Planned
IECC Residential Building Standards
20,610
In progress
IECC Commercial Building Standards
28,127
In progress
US Green Building Council LEED for existing buildings
*1,000s
In progress
PACE (or similar program)
2,922
New proposal
State /Federal energy efficiency & renewable energy programs
*100s
In progress
Dubuque Unified Development Code
*1,000s
In progress
Infill Development
*1,000s
New proposal
Built Environment Subtotal
_ • • _ ,
Other
City tree planting
600
In progress
Cool roofs /pavement program
1,057
New proposal
HFC /R -22 refrigerant phaseout
11,148
In progress
Misc community initiatives
22,296 (2% reduction between all)
In progress /planned
Other Subtotal
35,641
-
External Trends
182,801
-
Grand Total
599,935 (51 2% reduction) I
* *Only counted as 2,000 additional tonnesiyear when combined with methane- gas -to- energy system at DMASWA
viii
INTRODUCTION
DUBUQUE GHG REDUCTION TASK FORCE
Every great achievement starts with two things —a goal, and a plan. The goal should be
specific, ambitious, and attainable. The plan should be detailed, practical, and effective. Without both
a goal and a plan we will not know where we are going or how to get there, let alone the best way to
get there.
The Dubuque community— businesses, government leaders, and individual citizens —has been
working to reduce GHG emissions but lacks a specific goal to guide, motivate, and gauge the success
of its efforts. There is also no comprehensive plan to ensure that GHG reduction in Dubuque is
prioritized in terms of effectiveness and immediate benefits to the community.
In response to this need, the Dubuque GHG Reduction Task Force was convened in 2010. The
Task Force is a partnership of local non - profits, faith -based organizations, local government officials,
local business - people, and individual citizens with the designated purpose of recommending a GHG
reduction goal and feasible implementation strategy to the Dubuque City Council. Members of the
Task Force included:
1 Theothoros Giannakouros - Vice President, Green Dubuque, Inc.
A Jason Schatz - President, Green Dubuque, Inc.
A Pat Hayes, President - Dubuque County Conservation Society
A Mark Henning - 7th Power Sustainable, LLC
1 Will Hoyer - Green Dubuque Inc.
1 Chad Oberdoester - Environmental Stewardship Advisory Commission
1 Sr. Joy Peterson - Sisters of the PBVM
A David Roling – Independent Energy Consultant
A Paul Schultz – Resource Management Coordinator, City of Dubuque
A Charles Winterwood M.D. - Chairman, White Pine Group, Sierra Club
Over the following year, the Task Force agreed on an ambitious yet feasible GHG reduction
goal and crafted a detailed plan to help the community achieve it. The goal is 50% reduction by 2030
for the Dubuque community (from 2003 levels), with an interim goal of 30% by 2020. The plan
provides a detailed, quantified, and realistic path to achieving those goals.
THE GOAL
The primary goal of this initiative is to unite Dubuque in support of 50% GHG reduction by
2030 and begin taking measurable steps toward that goal. Beyond that, we seek to re- engage the
community in the discussion of climate change by showing the City government, local businesses, and
individual citizens the most effective, feasible, and desirable GHG reduction steps available to them.
To that end, we also wish to solicit the diverse voices of the community in order to craft the best
possible GHG reduction strategy. In other words, this plan is not meant to be the final word. This plan
provides an initial outline but is intended to be further developed and refined through community input,
consultation with local leaders and stakeholders, and the emergence of new emission reduction
opportunities.
1
WHY THIS PLAN IS UNIQUE
First, this is a one -of -a -kind effort in Dubuque, as there is no existing GHG reduction goal or
comprehensive plan for our community. Second, as far as we know this is a one -of -a -kind effort in the
entire country. Other cities have made impressive strides in GHG reduction. 50 °o by 2030 builds on
those pioneering efforts to create a truly unique initiative that is highly specific, carefully quantified,
and purely community driven. Dubuque's plan strongly promotes public- private partnerships in lieu of
government regulation in order to better engage the business community. The plan also carefully
quantifies the impact of various GHG reduction actions to see if those actions can, in fact, reduce GHG
emissions 50 °o by 2030. These unique traits will make Dubuque an innovative national leader in local
sustainability and make us the first community to map out a specific path to 50° o GHG reduction.
But let us be clear. This plan is not intended to be a binding set of recommendations, nor is this
an exhaustive account of the GHG reduction opportunities available to us. There are many possible
paths to reaching 50 °o by 2030, and we cannot know what kinds of GHG reduction opportunities will
emerge over the next 20 years. The main purpose of this plan is to illustrate that we can reach 50%
reduction by 2030 using only actions that are already available to us: and in many cases, those options
are already being implemented. We do not have to wait for a Federal mandate or new technology to
start building a better community. Dubuque is entirely capable of addressing this problem right now,
and to reap significant benefits in the process.
REPORT PREVIEW
This report presents a set of strategies by which the Dubuque community can feasibly reduce its
GHG emissions by 50 °o by 2030 (from 2003 levels). The report is divided into four sections:
1) The causes and consequences of climate change under a range of scenarios, both globally and
for Iowa specifically.
2) Current and future GHG emission trends for the Dubuque community.
3) GHG reductions available to Dubuque.
4) The immediate local benefits of various GHG reduction strategies.
There are also several appendices discussing calculations and assumptions, emissions budgeting
and the importance of rapid action, and a glossary of common "climate related" terms that often are
used in this report.
2
GLOBAL CUTMATF CHAMP
WHY THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
Thermal radiation
escaping to space
27 % reflect ed by
clouds &
atmos here
Solar
radiation
(100 %)
20% absorbed
y clouds and
atmosphere 3% reflected by
earth's surface
Thermal radiation
absorbed and "trapped"
by greenhouse gases
Atmosphere
50% of solar radiation (big red
arrow) is absorbed by earth's
surface and emitted as thermal
radiation (black wan- arrow)
Figure 1 The greenhouse effect
Earth's climate is a very complex system, but the greenhouse effect itself is relatively
straightforward The greenhouse effect occurs because greenhouse gases are transparent to incoming
solar radiation but are not transparent to outgoing thermal radiation
In other words, incoming energy from the sun is not absorbed by greenhouse gases But when
solar energy is absorbed by the earth's surface, it is re- emitted as thermal radiation, which greenhouse
gases do absorb When there are more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, more thermal radiation is
absorbed and trapped, which causes temperatures to rise The greenhouse effect is as simple as that
The United States has produced around 30% of the world's GHG gas emissions since the
industrial revolution, continues to emit 20 -25% of the world's total annual emissions, and maintains a
very high rate of emissions per person (IEA 2007) (Fig 2) In the U S Midwest alone, 2005 emissions
were higher than those of all other nations except China and Russia India, with its nearly 12 billion
residents, emitted less CO2 than the Midwest in 2005 (UCS 2009) This makes the Midwest a key
player in the effort to minimize climate change
3
20
19
18
17
is
15-
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13
High
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average 12
8
7
a
5
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average
3
Low ,
• co e 4
average
0
Unreel Slates
Saud1Aabs
Av9ale
•
Canada
Czech Republic
Norway
Russian Federman
UMW Kingcm
! I f•
ism
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i
I
South Aloes
Ukra'me
Llaoyso
III • France •
Sweden
III �• ham xic
Memo
Arperoka
Turkey
Malmo
Carlo
III
Egypt
China
• I Brazi`
Uruguay GNP per carat PPP
Indmesa (Intametlorml 5)
• Inoa It more than 20000
PnupPnes ■ 10000to'H1�
III Ouetelrea ■ 5 00010 10 000
Pails, en 2 2 00010 5000
• • Yemen
_ toga less than 2 000
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ION
0
Bona xaa em.. airs dwnm.)aa
Fitguit 2 2004 per capita greenhouse gas elnisslOAS by country
4
HOW THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
Climate Change to Date
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by nearly 40 0o since the mid -19th century, from
approximately 280 ppm (parts per million) to over 392 ppm today, and continue to increase at a rate of
around 2 ppm/year. Land use change, including deforestation and intensive agriculture, has caused
significant loss of the carbon stored in plants and soil, and accounts for about '/3 of the CO2 increase
since the industrial revolution. The other 2/3 has come from burning fossil fuels. In addition to CO2.
several other atmospheric trace gases, including CH,. N20, and HFCs, contribute to the human -
generated greenhouse effect.
Oceans, plants, and soils absorb some of our GHG emissions but are only able to absorb around
half of total annual emissions. These net emissions can linger in the atmosphere for more than a
century. Recent modeling studies have found that even if emissions decrease in the near future, there
will be a significant lag time of centuries or more before temperatures also return to normal
(Meinshausen et al. 2009: Allen et al. 2009). In other words, if temperatures are allowed to increase by
3.6 "F. our climate is expected to maintain those higher temperatures for centuries after GHG emissions
decline. This highlights the importance of early action the more warming we can prevent, the more
hospitable the climate will be for centuries to come.
Paths to the Future - What are our Options?
According to the IPCC, a 51 -64 °o reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (from 2005
levels) are necessary to keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations below 450 ppm (IPCC 2007). For
Dubuque, a 50°0 reduction by 2030 (from 2003 levels) would be in line with that target.
What is the significance of a 450 ppm target? From the IPCC's 2007 report:
"450 ppm CO2e corresponds to a best estimate of 2.1 °C (3.6 °F) temperature rise above
pre - industrial global average...likely in the range of 1.4 -3.1 °C (2.5- 5.6 °F) rise."
In other words, the temperature increase most likely to occur at 450 ppm is 3.6 "F, though the
IPCC also estimates a 54 °o chance that 450 ppm will create greater warming than 3.6 "F. Limiting
temperature increases to 3.6 "F or less has been targeted by most national and international climate
initiatives for several reasons, including:
4) 3.6 "F provides a moderate probability of avoiding the most dangerous and irreversible impacts
of climate change (Fig. 3: Table 1).
5) Successful adaptation to a 3.6 "F rise may be feasible for most developed and developing
nations.
Neither of these two reasons behind are without uncertainty or controversy, however. For
instance, the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Accord included an agreement to review the 3.6 "F target and
shift it downward if evidence continues to mount that we are unlikely to adapt successfully to 3.6 "F
rise. Also, as discussed above. 450 ppm only provides an approximately 50°0 chance of warming being
less than 3.6 "F (Fig. 3). Nonetheless. 450 ppm provides an important rallying point around which
emission mitigation efforts can begin to take shape.
5
emperature ' se, •e•rees e siu
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.5 -
PPm
450
ppm
500
ppm
550
ppm
750
ppm
650
ppm
1000
ppm
Entire citi
sea level
20 -50% Species Lost
1 -4 Billion people face water shortages
15 -40% Species Lost
o Species Lost
Figure 3 Likely effects of four greenhouse gas reduction paths The 50% reduction target and plan for Dubuque is consistent with the minimum global reductions
necessary to achieve 450 ppm Figure from The Game Plan a soluthon framework for the climate challenge by Saul Griffith Available at
www wattzon com/pdfi/GamePlan_v1 Opdf
6
Table 1 Hi confidence (8 in 10 probability or better projections of the effects of various temperature increases
Global average annual
temperature change
above 1990 levels
High Confidence Projections
oC
OF
2
3.6
A Agricultural productivity in low latitudes, especially Africa, will drop sharply
A Millions exposed to coastal flooding each year
A Extinction of species becomes significant, especially coral reefs and arctic animals
3
5.4
Agricultural productivity and economic output will drop everywhere
. 30 percent of global coastal wetlands lost
Substantial burden on health services from disease, malnutrition, heat waves, floods,
and droughts
4
72
A Extinction of species will become widespread
2.5 to 4.5
3.6 to 8.1
. Threshold for eventual loss of the Greenland ice sheet, ultimately causing 7m (23 ft) of
sea level rise
Source: IPCC 2007. AR4 Synthesis Report. Table 3.6 on p.51
The IPCC's 2007 report only includes data up to 2006. More recent studies suggest that the
GHGs already emitted have committed us to up to 2.5 to 7.7 °F of warming, a commitment that is
expected to rise to 3.8 to 9.7 °F by 2030 unless serious action is taken in the meantime (Ramanathan
and Feng 2008). Sokolov et al. (2009) warn that in the absence of emissions mitigation measures,
temperature increases this century could exceed 12.6 °F.
Our current emissions actually exceed the IPCC's worst case scenario. If this course is not
altered, the best estimate indicates that the world will warm by an average of 7.2 °F or more by the end
of the century. Notably, the temperatures discussed here are global averages, but temperature on land
will generally increase much faster than ocean temperatures (basically, because it is much easier to heat
a few feet of soil than a few thousand feet of water). For example, an average global temperature
increase of 3.6 °F may actually represent a 1 -2 °F average increase on the oceans and a 6 -8 °F (or more)
increase on land, particularly in the northern hemisphere which has more land area than the southern
hemisphere. So for Iowa, actual the temperature increase are likely to be much greater than the global
average increase. Anticipate impacts on Iowa are discussed in later sections and in a 2011 report from
the State of Iowa, accessible at www.iowadnr.gov /iccac /files /completereport.pdf.
Global Consequences of Temperature Increases
The cost of climate change is expected to accelerate with each additional degree of warming.
These accelerating costs occur because more temperature thresholds, or tipping points, are crossed at
higher temperatures. A tipping point is simply a threshold at which further change triggers abrupt and
often irreversible changes to human or natural systems. In other words, once a certain temperature or
precipitation threshold is crossed, rapid changes will occur that are unlikely or impossible to reverse
(Table 1; Table 2).
Many of these tipping points are already occurring and well documented, well before we have
reached the <3.6 °F warming targeted by the 450 ppm goal. So even this target leaves us facing
significant adaptation challenges. Nonetheless, the rate and severity of these impacts will be much less
severe at 450 ppm than at higher greenhouse gas concentrations.
7
Table 2 Potential tipping points triggered by climate change
Effect
Why is this a tipping point?
Sea level rise displacing hundreds of millions of
coastal people and salinizing valuable croplands
and drinking water supplies
Sea level cannot be lowered over times of less than a few
centuries, making sea level rise and coastal
land /crop /freshwater loss irreversible When salt water
infiltrates agricultural lands and freshwater supply, those
resources are unlikely to be reclaimed
Spread of human and agricultural pests and
disease previously limited by temperature barriers
When pests and diseases enter a region and find suitable
hosts, they tend to find ways to persist
Rapid loss of polar ice sheets
Ice loss tends to beget further ice loss by "lubricating" the
movement of glaciers, increasing the temperature of
surrounding water, and exposing darker non -ice- covered
surfaces that absorb more sunlight and radiate more heat than
ice According to Hansen et al (2008), Arctic ice loss occurs
at 325 -355 ppm CO_
Permafrost loss in high northern latitudes,
leading to release of huge reservoirs of GHGs
currently locked in the frozen ground in soils and
belowground biomass
Melted permafrost tends to physically collapse and /or be
invaded by dense shrubs that absorb more sunlight (relative
to reflective snow and ice cover and relatively bare ground)
and lead to further warming and melting Tundra and other
permafrost areas are unlikely to recover once substrates and
plant communities have changed so significantly
A.
Hydrological limits beyond which regions can no
longer support particular crops, ecosystems, or
human settlements: and biodiversity loss and-
species extinction
Desertification can occur rapidly after certain
hydrological limits are reached Loss of plant cover can lead
to rapid soil loss and degradation, breakdown of native
ecosystem resiliency, and changes in local precipitation
patterns As such, once desertification is underway, reversing
it is a tremendous challenge, particularly on large scales
Over 1/6 of the world's population relies on seasonal
meltwater from mountain glaciers and snowpack for for
drinking water, irrigation, and maintaining ecosystems
services These mountain water supplies are already
undergoing near- global retreat at current CO_ concentrations
(388 ppm)
Loss of coral reefs due to ocean temperature rise
and acidification
Ocean acidification results from CO_ being absorbed by the
oceans Warmer, more acidic waters stress many marine
organisms and reduce their ability to form calcium carbonate
shells and skeletons, which form the backbone of coral reefs
Biologists widely agree that reefs are not likely to survive in
warmer, more acidic oceans, even a 450 ppm target
essentially dooms reef ecosystems to irreversible,
catastrophic decline and extinction (Royal Society 2(1 i9)
Species extinction
The loss of any species is irreversible Up to 25°0 of species
could be at risk of extinction in a high - emissions scenario
Source: IPCC 200-.AR4 Synthesis Report.
8
CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWEST + $A, IL, WI, MN, IN,MI,OH,MO
The previous sections discuss climate change on a global scale, but what about the Midwest
region specifically9 Agnculture, which relies on a stable and predictable climate, is responsible for
over $19 billion of Iowa's economy and up to 20% of its jobs The economy of much of the Midwest
relies heavily on farming, forestry, and other natural resources sectors, so the Midwest clearly has a
major stake in mamtanung a hospitable climate
This section will discuss the potential impacts of climate change on the Midwest usmg findings
from a 2009 report from the U S Global Change Research Program, which compiled the latest
scientific knowledge on the impacts of warming trends on the U S (USGCRP 2009)
Temperature
The highest temperature increases are strongly expected to occur in more northern latitudes m
the middle of contments, putting Iowa at significant nsk of major temperature increases Over the
coming century, Iowa's summer temperatures could come to resemble those of present day Oklahoma
or Texas, with mean annual temperatures nsmg 5 -10 °F (Fig 4) Our current global emissions match
or exceed the highest emissions scenario considered, putting us on track for very high temperature
increases
Low Emissions High Emissions
Scenario
Scenario
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10
( °F}
Figure 4 Predicted average temperature changes in the U S by the end of the century in low (550 ppm) and high (900
ppm) emissions scenanos Fig modrfied from U S GCRP 2009 report
9
If we continue to follow the high emissions path (900 ppm), the number of days exceeding
100 °F in Iowa is expected to reach 45 to 75 days per year by the end of the century (Fig. 5). In other
words, around two months of every summer are expected to exceed 100 °F. Such extreme heat presents
a major danger to people, crops, and livestock. It also creates an uncomfortable living environment and
will increase health care costs due to respiratory and heat - related ailments.
In a low- emissions scenario (550 ppm), the number of 100 + °F days in Iowa is expected to reach
<10 to 20 days per year by the end of the century, significantly fewer than in the high- emissions
scenario. This illustrates the striking differences in the consequences between continuing our high
emissions path or actively pursuing a lower emissions future.
Recent Past - 1961 -1979
Ism
411111iiiilatotit
Low Emissions - 2080 -2099
High Emissions - 2080 -2099
Number of Days per year over 100 °F
I
alp 24 34 45 44 75 114 145 )124
Figure 5. Predicted changes in number of days per year exceeding 100 °F in the U.S. in the present day and end of the
century in a high emissions scenario. Fig. modifiedfrom U.S. GCRP 2009 report.
10
Precipitation
By the end of this century, winters and
springs are predicted to be 20 -30% wetter m a
high emissions scenano, increasing the nsk of
spring floods In the hot summer months,
total precipitation is predicted to decrease,
which will mcrease the likelihood of droughts
(Fig 6) Precipitation patterns in the low
emissions scenano are snmlar, but less severe
The nature of precipitation is also
begmnmg to change The U S Global Change
Research Program's 2009 report reveals that
over the past 50 years, the number of
downpours in the Midwest has increased by
31% (Fig 7) Notably, this does not include
the heavy rainfall and flooding of 2008 and
2010 In other words, the water cycle is
intensifymg, with less- frequent, more - intense
storms that increase the nsk of flooding
This trend is expected to continue over
the next century, with more and more of our
precipitation concentrated in more intense
events separated by longer dry spells (Fig 8)
In the high- emissions scenario, the heaviest
precipitation events are expected to increase
by up to 50% Here again, the low- emissions
scenario would provide a sigmficantly more
hospitable climate compared to the high -
emissions scenario
Increasmgly severe weather is also
likely to lead to more flood events like those
of 1993, 2008, and 2010 The 1993 and 2008
floods alone costs Iowans an estimated $1 56
billion and $10 billion, respectively, leading to
85 of Iowa's 99 counties being declared
Federal disaster areas 40,000 Iowans were
forced from their homes, an estimated 7,500
jobs were lost, and the American Farm Bureau
estimated $4 billion in crop losses in 2008
alone
The full cost of the 2010 floods has yet
to be tallied, but the continued recurrence of
severe flooding illustrates the risks we face if
we continue to emit GHGs at high rates It
will be very costly if such devastating floods
become the "new normal" in Iowa
11
Percen Change
--40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 >40
Figure 6 Predicted seasonal percent change in precipitation by
the end of the century (2080 -2099) for Iowa Figure modified
from U S GCRP 2009 report
Increases in Amounts of Very Heavy
Precipitation (1958 to 2007)
1204,
.�Yc ■
1
A 1 37% I
0'
Percentage Change in Very Heavy Precipitation
C
0 - 10% 10.20% 20- 30% 30 - 40% 40.50% '40%
Figure 7 Increases in the amounts of very heavy precipitation
from 1958 -2007 Figure modified from US GCRP 2009 report
-10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percentile CCSP SAP 3 368
• Higher emissions scenario"
O Lower emissions scenarios'
Moderate Heaviest
Fig 8 Projected percent changes over the coming century in the amount of rain falling during light moderate, and heavy
precipitation events in the United States under high and low emission scenarios Figure motied frovn U S GCRP 2009
In summary, Iowa faces a combination of increased precipitation in the winter and spnng,
decreased precipitation during the hot summer months, and an increasing share of precipitation
concentrated in intense rainfall events separated by long dry spells This intensification of the
hydrological cycle puts Iowa at greater risk of both floods and droughts In terms of both temperature
and precipitation, there are significant differences between the high and low emissions scenanos,
highlighting the importance of the emissions path we choose for our health, economic prosperity, and
quality of life
12
DUBUQUE COMMUNITY: TARGETS & TRENDS
2003, 2007, & 2009 EMISSIONS
In April 2010, the authors of this report completed a GHG inventory for the City of Dubuque.
The inventory cataloged emissions for Dubuque's municipal government operations and for the
community as a whole. The inventory included Scope 1 emissions (direct GHG emissions, except for
biogenic CO2) and Scope 2 emissions (indirect GHG emissions from consumption of purchased or
acquired electricity, steam, heating, or cooling). This report adds 2009 community emissions data. See
Appendix C for notes and assumptions in calculating 2009 emissions.
Dubuque as a whole generated 1,054,145, 1,240,405, and 1,114,785 tonnes CO2e of GHG
emissions in 2003, 2007, and 2009, respectively (Table 3). That equates to annual per capita emissions
of 18.4, 21.7, and 19.5 tonnes CO2e in 2003, 2007, and 2009, which are comparable to the 2006 U.S.
national average of 19.8 tonnes CO2e per person per year.
Dubuque's emissions were predominantly in the form of CO2 (95 %), CH4 (4 %), and N20 (1 %).
In 2003, most emissions originated from the transportation (33 %) residential (25 %), industrial (25 %),
and commercial (12 %) sectors, with 4% coming from landfill CH4 Emissions in 2007 and 2009 were
similarly distributed across city sectors.
Table 3 Total GHG emissions from various sectors of the Dubuque, Iowa community in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes
of total CO2e
Facility
Total Emissions
(tonnes CO2e)
% of Total
2003
2007
2009
2003
2007
2009
Residential (electric)
162,922
216,256
173,915
15%
17%
16%
Residential (natural gas)
110,513
100,991
95,021
10%
8%
9%
Commercial (electric)
84,560
176,093
152,932
8%
14%
14%
Commercial (natural gas)
51,545
49,831
51,549
5%
4%
5%
Industrial (electric)
312,431
379,407
315,191
30%
31%
28%
Industrial (natural gas)
4,864
1,130
2,054
0 5%
0 1%
0 2%
Transportation
289,822
274,392
281,227
27%
22%
25%
Waste
37,488
42,305
42,896
4%
3%
4%
Total
1,054,145
1,240,405
1,114, 785
-
-
-
13
REDUCTION TARGETS
Scientific Relevance
Most national and international GHG reduction efforts have converged on the goal of limiting
atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 450 ppm (parts per million). The 450 ppm target was selected in
order to limit temperature increases to 2 "C (3.6 "F) or less, which is generally considered the
temperature threshold below which we can avoid many of the most dangerous and irreversible impacts
of climate change (see section: Paths to the Future, above).
According to the IPCC, the temperature increase most likely to occur at 450 ppm is 3.6 "F, with
a 54° o chance of the increase being higher than 3.6 "F (IPCC 2007). In other words, the 450 ppm target
provides an approximately 50/50 chance of maintaining a relatively stable and hospitable climate.
Meeting the 450 ppm goal will require a 51 -64 °o GHG emissions reduction by 2030 and 80-
95°o reduction by 2050 from 2005 levels (IPCC 2007). As such, recent national and international GHG
reduction initiatives are beginning to converge on those targets (Table 4).
In a 2010 analysis, the World Resources Institute estimated that existing federal authorities and
state actions could reduce GHG emissions by 5 -270o by 2030, with a "middle -of -the- road" estimate of
18 °0 (WRI 2010). Their analysis included only existing authorities and did not include potential
national climate legislation that could bolster GHG reduction rates.
Economic Importance
The growing momentum behind international, national, and local GHG reduction initiatives
create a direct economic incentive for timely action and ambitious targets in Dubuque. Reduction
targets in the range of 51 -640o by 2030 are scientifically necessary, so actual emissions targets are
likely to converge on these levels, eventually.
As such, local economies with a concrete plan in place will be less likely to be caught off guard
by cap and trade or other emissions reduction policies. Effective early action could put Dubuque in an
economically advantageous position compared to communities that fail to be proactive in responding to
the clear trend toward a low- carbon economy .
For instance, grant opportunities, such as the continuing Partnership for Sustainable
Communities program administered cooperatively by the U.S. DOT. HUD, and EPA, will likely
continue to reward grantees with "shovel ready' projects that are part of a comprehensive
sustainability plan. Prospective state, regional, and federal GHG reduction policies and initiatives are
also likely to include significant grant opportunities for communities to reduce their emissions: these
grants are also likely to reward communities with proven, ongoing GHG reduction plans.
Further economic benefits of specific GHG reduction opportunities are discussed in the Benefits
to Dubuque section.
14
Table 4 Recent and ongoing GHG emission reduction policies and initiatives
Initiative
Scope
Target
Status
UNFCCC
International
"Stabilization of GHG
concentrations in the
atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic
interference with the
climate system"
1992 treaty signed and ratified by US &
most other nations. Ongoing negotiations
and results include national emissions
inventories, annual conferences, the Kyoto
Protocol, and the Copenhagen Accord.
Kyoto Protocol
International
Average reduction of
5.2 °o from by 2012 (from
1990): commitments
differ by nation's
economic status
Not ratified by US: 187 nations have
ratified.
Copenhagen
Accord
International
2°C or less temperature
rise
Not legally binding. U.S. pledged 17 °o by
2020 goal: nations representing nearly 870o
of global emissions have engaged with the
accord
American Clean
Energy &
Security Act -
(ACES)
National (US
Congress)
42°() by 2030: 83°() by
2050
Passed by House in 2010
American Power
Act
National (US
Senate)
42 °o by 2030: 83 °o by
2050
Not introduced (potential companion bill to
ACES bill from House, above)
CLEAR Act
National (US
Senate)
20 °o by2030 :63 °o by
2050 (estimated by WRI)
Not introduced (potential companion bill to
ACES bill from House, above)
Northeast RGGI
Regional
10 °o below 1990 levels by
2018 ( -22 °o below 2005
levels)
10 northeastern states & 1 Canadian
province participating: 1 state and
provinces observing before committing
Western Climate
Initiative
Regional
15 °o below 2005 levels by
2020
7 states & 4 Canadian provinces
participating: many states and provinces
observing
Midwestern
Greenhouse Gas
Reduction Accord
Regional
20 °o below 2005 levels by
2020 and 80 °o by 2050
(suggests 40 °o by 2030)
6 states & 1 Canadian province
participating, including Iowa: 3 states and 1
province observing
California
Assembly Bill 32
State
Back to 1990 levels by
2020 ( -25 °o reduction
from business -as- usual)
Signed into law
Mayors' Climate
Protection
Agreement
Local
Same as Kyoto. 20 °o
below 2005 levels by
2012 (equivalent to 7 ° 0
below 1990 levels by
2012)
1O42 mayoral signatories, including
Dubuque's Mayor Roy Buol
15
EMISSIONS TRENDS
Introduction
To model future GHG emissions in Dubuque, three emissions scenarios were calculated for
Dubuque from 2010 -2030 (see Appendix C for calculations, data sources, and assumptions). These
projections included trends for electricity and natural gas consumption, transportation, and waste.
These scenarios were created to provide realistic projections of Dubuque's baseline GHG
emissions in the absence of significant local action. Such baseline emissions estimates will facilitate
accurate accounting of the impact of each GHG reduction initiative in the Dubuque community.
Energy Demand
According to a 2009 study by the Electric Power Research Institute, energy demand is expected
to increase by approximately 1.07 °o per year between 2010 and 2030 (EPRI 2009). This estimate
includes projected business -as -usual improvements in appliance, building, and power plant efficiency
but does not include any additional measures or policies such as federal climate policy or specific
energy efficiency programs. This 1.07 °o annual increase was applied to electricity and natural gas
consumption in Dubuque between 2010 and 2030.
Electricity Grid Trends
In the low - emissions scenario, emissions factors between 2010 and 2030 improved by 33 °o
(equivalent to approximately 2 °o annual reduction in emissions intensity): in the mid -range scenario,
emissions factors improved by 22°o (approximately 1.25 °o annual reduction in emissions intensity):
and in the high - emissions scenario, emissions factors improved by 15 °0 (approximately 0.83 °o annual
reduction). These ranges are consistent with an analysis of 2002 -2007 emissions factors, which found
steadily declining emissions intensity in the upper Midwest as renewable capacity increased and older,
dirtier plants were decommissioned or moved to the margin of production (PA Consulting 2009). For
instance. Alliant Energy has announced that the Dubuque Generating Station coal plant will be taken
offline in 2015, which will significantly reduce the carbon intensity of Dubuque's energy.
Considering the ambitious state and national plans to increase renewable energy production in
the upper Midwest (Appendix C), these scenarios may be conservative. Upper Midwestern states
appear poised to increase their renewable capacity to greater levels than 33 °o over the next 20 years,
but they are also likely to sell much of that energy to other states and utilities striving to meet their own
emission reduction goals. As such. 33 °o is the highest emission factor reduction considered here, and
22 °o is the mid -range scenario for Dubuque. See Appendix A for full description of assumptions and
data sources.
Vehicle Emissions Trends
Average CO2 emissions of light duty vehicles in the U.S. have decreased by approximately 8 °o
between 2004 and 2009 (EPA 2009), and are slated to improve dramatically in the coming decades.
The federal government has finalized plans to improve fuel efficiency by over 14 °o between 2012 and
2016, reaching the equivalent of 35.5 mpg for model year 2016 light duty passenger vehicles (EPA
2010). The EPA has also begun the vile - making process for improving fuel economy by 3-6°0 per year
from 2017 through 2025 for passenger vehicles (EPA 2010), and to- be- announced targets for heavy -
duty vehicles starting in model year 2014 (EPA 2010)
16
Based on these trends and projections, three emissions scenarios for vehicle emissions were
calculated for the period of 2010 -2030. In the low- emissions scenario, it was assumed that the EPA
will reach its 2016 target and that fuel economy will continue to improve by 6° o per year until 2025. In
the mid - range- emissions scenario, it was assumed that the EPA will reach its 2016 target and that fuel
economy will continue to improve by 4.5 °o per year until 2025. The high - emissions scenario assumes
only a 3° o annual improvement improvement in fuel efficiency until 2025 after the EPA's 2016 target is
reached. See Appendix C for assumptions and data sources.
Waste
Methane emissions from the landfill were assumed to remain constant between 2009 and 2030
for these baseline scenarios.
Overall Trends
Overall trends for 2010 -2030 were based on the assumptions and projections described in the
above sections for transportation, electricity, natural gas, and waste emissions. The low emission
scenario sums the low- emission scenarios of all individual components (transportation, electricity,
natural gas, waste). The mid -range emission scenario sums the mid -range emission scenarios of all the
individual components. The high- emission scenario sums the high- emission scenarios of all the
individual components.
In the low emissions scenario, 2030 emissions are 17.34°0 lower than 2003 levels: in the mid-
range emissions scenario. 2030 emissions are 8.640o lower than 2003 levels: in the high- emissions
scenario. 2030 emissions are 2.61 °0 lower than 2003 levels (Table 5).
Notably, these scenarios only include trends, commitments, initiatives, and technologies that
already exist or have already been set in motion. It does not account for any future initiatives or
unforeseen technologies. It seems highly unlikely that the next two decades will pass without
additional state and national initiatives, significant technological innovation, and continued momentum
toward a low carbon economy . As such, even the low- emissions scenario is likely be a conservative
projection.
17
Table 5 Low, mid- range, and high emissions scenarios from 2010 -2030 estimated from trends and projections of
transportation, electricity, natural gas, and waste emissions Calculations and assumptions are described above Gray
shaded boxes are calculated values, 2003, 2007, and 2009 are actual values Units are in metric tonnes CO2e
Year
Low
Emissions
Mid-
Range
High
Emissions
2003
1,054,216
1,054,216
1,054,216
2004
2005
2006
2007
1,251,760
1,251,760
1,251,760
2008
2009
1,119, 362
1,119, 362
1,119, 362
2010
1,123, 252
1,123, 252
1,123, 252
2011
1,105,505
1,109,118
1,111,141
2012
1,086,856
1,094,403
1,098,654
2013
1,066,695
1,078,563
1,085,329
2014
1,045,049
1,061,608
1,071,170
2015
1,030,986
1,052,177
1,064,573
2016
1,015,917
1,041,931
1,057,339
2017
1,009,318
1,039,775
1,058,049
2018
1,002,146
1,037,085
1,058,313
2019
994, 403
1,033,859
1,058,131 '
2020
986,087
1,030,098
1,057,502
2021
977,199
1,025,802
1,056,428
2022
967,738
1,020,971
1,054,909
2023
957,704
1,015,606
1,052,944
2024
947,097
1,009,707
1,050,534
2025
935,917
1,003,274
1,047,680
2026
924,162
996,307
1,044,380
2027
911,834
988,806
1,040,637
2028
898,932
980,772
1,036,449 '
2029
885,455
972,205
1,031,817
2030
871,404
963,104
1,026,742
%Change
(2003 -2030)
- 17.34%
-8.64%
- 2.61%
Net Change
(2003 -2030
- 182,811
-91,111
- 27,474
Tonnes)
18
GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACTIONS
INTRODUCTION
Reductions will be subdivided into five categories:
I. Waste Management
II. Local Energy
III. Transportation
IV. The Built Environment
V. Other Reductions
Each section will begin with an introduction summarizing the type of GHG reduction
opportunities available in Dubuque, followed by a summary table of specific GHG reductions#.
Following the summary table are brief narratives providing background on each reduction, including a
brief description of how GHG reductions were calculated as well as any immediate benefits the
community will receive.
Notably, most of these potential reductions are either already underway, under consideration in
Dubuque, or could be implemented in a short time span. As such, it is feasible that all of these
opportunities could be in progress within the next five years and fully implemented within 10 years.
Finally, this plan is not intended to present a binding set of recommendations, nor is it an
exhaustive account of the GHG reduction opportunities available to Dubuque. There are many possible
paths to reaching 50% by 2030, and we cannot know what unforeseen GHG reduction opportunities
will emerge over the next 20 years. The purpose of this plan is to illustrate that we can reach 50%
reduction by 2030 using only actions that are already available to us. And in the vast majority of
cases, those options are already in various phases of consideration, planning, or implementation in
Dubuque, making 50% by 2030 a quite feasible goal (see Scenarios: Feasibility section).
Note The summary tables for each individual section include estimates from the mid -range emissions scenario only (see
Emissions Trends section, above) Total Reductions, however, includes estimates from all emissions scenarios
19
Waste Management
Waste creates GHG emissions in two ways. (1) Drectlj• through the decomposition of organic
materials (e.g. food, plant material, paper), which produces methane gas: methane is a potent GHG
with over 21- times the global warming potential of CO,. (2) Inchrect/j through the loss of embodied
energy in goods and materials. If we can re -use, recycle, or reduce our consumptions of those
materials, we can eliminate or retain the energy used to make them rather then burying it at the bottom
of a landfill.
The Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA) operates the Dubuque
Metropolitan Landfill, which manages solid waste for Dubuque and some surrounding areas. There are
several opportunities at DMASWA to reduce both direct and indirect GHG emissions:
a Existing methane emissions can be captured and burned to reduce their global warming
potential and /or to generate power. DMASWA is currently capturing and flaring its methane,
and is considering using its gas - capture infrastructure to create a landfill- gas -to- energy power
generation facility.
a The amount of methane emitted by the landfill can be reduced by minimizing the amount of
organic material (e.g. food waste and plant material) that is buried there. There are several
options for doing this, including composting food scraps at the landfill itself, contracting with a
private hauler to compost off site, or instituting a city -wide program to flush food waste down
"In -sink- orator" sink disposals and then harvest the resulting methane emissions at Dubuque's
Water Pollution Control Plant facility.
a The amount of "embodied energy' being buried at the landfill can be reduced through various
programs to divert high -value discards from the landfill.
Table 6. Waste - related GHG reductions (tonnes CO_e /year by 2030) TBA indicates awaiting results of EPA WARM model
* *Only counted a 2,000 tonnes when landfill gas to energy systems are installed at both DMASWA and WPCP
20
2030
Reduction
Status
DMASWA methane capture
CHP (onsite power gen) or
59,105
Planned
DMASWA Methane flaring
22,422
In progress
50% waste diversion
TBA
Under
consideration
80% food scrap diversion (3d
turbine at WPCP)
"5,955
Under
consideration
Subtotal
61,105
* *Only counted a 2,000 tonnes when landfill gas to energy systems are installed at both DMASWA and WPCP
20
Discussion - Waste Management
I Dt1 L 1STE4 Methane Flaring Capture CHP
II. 50% Waste Diversion
III. Food Scrap Diversion
I. DMI-1SW 1 methane flaring /capture CHP
In 2010 the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA) completed
installation of a landfill gas collection system and began flaring the captured methane. The landfill gas
collection system is expected to capture about 75° o of the total emissions from the landfill. The flaring
process burns methane gas to convert it to CO2 and water. Methane has over 21 -times more global
warming potential than CO2. so burning it significantly reduces the climate impact of the landfill and
gives us significant "bang for our buck" in reducing GHG emissions. CO2 emissions from the flaring
process are biogenic and are thus considered carbon neutral. Flaring alone will result in an estimated
reduction of 50,000 tonnes CO2e per year.
In 2007. Dubuque commissioned a study from Cornerstone Environmental Group. LLC, which
identified the potential for a 2 MW Combined Heat and Power (CHP) landfill- gas -to- energy facility.
This facility would capture methane and burn it to create enough energy to power well over 1.000
homes. CHP facilities are power generators that produce electricity and also utilize the resulting waste
heat, which can then be used in surrounding buildings. The DMASWA facility would have the
potential to generate 13.300.000 kWh of electricity and approximately 9.550 Therms of waste heat that
could be captured and utilized in nearby facilities. The landfill -to -gas option will produce enough
electricity to offset 13.318 tonne CO2e reduction annually. Combined with the 50.000 tonnes prevented
by burning the methane (see above), this would yield a total reduction of 63.318 tonnes CO2e annually.
This represents a significant share of the community's GHG emissions. However, energy is a
valuable commodity and the project would yield significant economic benefits as well. Based on
estimates from the Cornerstone study, the landfill- gas -to- energy project would yield a very high rate of
return, with a net present value of approximately $1,909,431.
IL 50% Waste Diversion
The amount of embodied energy buried at the landfill can be reduced through various programs
to divert high -value discards from permanent burial. Recycling more and wasting less is one of the
fastest, cheapest, and most effective strategies available to local governments to reduce GHG
emissions.
In 2009, Huls Environmental Management was contracted by DMASWA to develop a plan to
divert 50 °o of the approximately 100.000 tons /year buried at the landfill. Huls produced an
implementation strategy that could enable DMASWA to reach the 50 °o goal within five years.
The implementation strategy discussed the potential for sustained revenue from recovery /reuse
of high value discards. For instance, high value goods such as construction debris can be collected and
marketed in a "resource recovery park." Organic waste can be converted to high -grade compost and
sold at a premium rate to retail and commercial markets. These and other revenue streams, in addition
to the avoided costs of waste burial, would offset a large portion of the initial investment in diversion
operations and facilities. In all, Huls estimated that their recommendations could be fully implemented
for $8.8 million and yield annual costs savings and revenue of nearly $3 million, which could translate
to significant long term savings for landfill users. Also, 50 °o (or more) waste diversion could help
ensure the long term viability of Dubuque's landfill, not to mention minimizing the inefficient wasting
21
of materials that still have useful life and value. Also, greater waste diversion will lead to fewer
hazardous materials entering the landfill, which will minimize the cost and challenge of long term
management of the site.
GHG reductions from 500o waste diversion were calculated based on 2009 waste composition
data from DMASWA and the EPA's WARM model. Results will be forthcoming when EPA has
confirmed the results of our models.
III. Food Scrap Diversion
When organic materials, such as food and plant material, are buried in the oxygen free
environment beneath a landfill, they undergo anaerobic decomposition (as opposed to aerobic
decomposition in an environment with oxygen), which produces methane gas as a byproduct. Methane
is a potent GHG with over 21 -times the global warming potential of CO2. Diverting organic materials
can prevent these methane emissions from occurring, thus reducing landfill GHG emissions.
Diversion can take several forms. The waste can be composted, which can prevent much of the
methane emissions and yield high quality compost for sale to horticultural and commercial/retail
landscaping markets. The waste also can be concentrated in a single area and allowed to undergo
anaerobic decomposition, with the resulting methane emissions captured and burned to create energy
and eliminate the methane's climate impact.
Dubuque has the capacity for either of those options. The Huls Environmental Management
report (see 50% Waste Diversion, above) discussed various strategies to phase -in an organics recovery
system that could collect up to 30.000 tons /year of organics. These could be turned into valuable high -
grade compost at an on -site composting facility or off -site through a contracted private hauler. Organic
waste could also be integrated into the Water Pollution Control Plant's (WPCP) anaerobic digesters,
boosting the methane- gas -to- energy capacity at the WPCP. In the case of the WPCP, food scraps either
could be hauled to the digesters or transferred to the WPCP via in -home "In- sink - orator" disposals (see
Built Environment section for more details on WPCP).
GHG reductions from 80 °o diversion to the WPCP with methane capture are estimated to be
approximately 5.955 tonnes CO2e per year. This assumes two 200 kw turbines at WPCP: 11.415 tons
of food scraps landfilled per year: that each ton of food scraps will generate 1.43 tonnes of methane
during decomposition, and that the existing methane capture /flaring system at DMASWA captures
methane emissions with 70 °o efficiency.
The calculation becomes more complex if WPCP methane- gas -to- energy is coupled with a
methane- gas -to- energy system at DMASWA. In that case, food scraps are being converted to methane
at both sites and diverting food scraps from one would decrease the amount available at the other.
However, methane capture and energy generation at WPCP ( :90 °0) would be higher efficiency
than at DMASWA (70 °0). Also, methane at the landfill is generated by a whole suite of organics, not
exclusively or even primarily food scraps (e.g. paper and yard waste make up a large share). Therefore,
diverting food scraps from WPCP would yield a net gain in energy production due to the higher
efficiency of methane capture at the anaerobic digesters. Transportation and other sources of GHG
should be taken into account, but given the 20 + °0 higher efficiency of the WPCP turbines, we estimate
an additional 2,000 tonnes CO2e annual reduction if methane- gas -to- energy systems are utilized at both
WPCP and DMASWA.
22
Local Energy
There are two aspects to GHG reduction: reducing the amount of energy consumed, and
reducing the GHGs produced during the generation of that energy. This section focuses on local
opportunities for generation of clean, renewable energy in Dubuque (Table 7). For additional local
power generation opportunities, see the discussions of methane- gas -to- energy projects in the sections
Waste Management and Built Environment: UPCP.
Around 75 °0 of the electricity generated in Iowa comes from coal. Dubuque itself is the site of
Alliant Energy's Dubuque Generating Station coal plant, which has been in operation since the early
1900s years and is the 6th oldest coal plant in the entire country, though it is currently scheduled to be
shut down in 2015 and used mostly during periods of peak demand in the interim.
So, any power we generate locally from renewable energy will offset coal- generated power,
improve air quality, and reduce GHG emissions. Notably, the reductions discussed in this section only
represent existing opportunities for renewable energy in Dubuque and are based solely on current
market conditions and projections. However, renewable technologies are undeniably gaining national
momentum and rapidly improving in cost and efficiency. There is little doubt that the growth of
renewables will continue and significant local opportunities will arise over the next 20 years. As such,
probably more than any other section of this report, these numbers should be considered conservative.
We focus on large scale commercial opportunities for renewable energy in Dubuque because
they are typically the largest - impact projects. However, by no means do we discount the potential for
residential applications of renewable energy. Homeowners already have many economically attractive
options for adding renewable energy to their homes, particularly solar hot water heaters and ground
source heat pumps. As solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to fall rapidly in cost and improve in
efficiency, we also expect those technologies to become relatively commonplace on new and existing
homes and commercial buildings. Also. Alliant Energy's 2 " Nature and Maquoketa Valley's Watts
Green programs empowers homeowners to invest directly in large -scale renewables through their
utility bills.
Table 7. Local energy - related GHG reductions (tonnes CO_e /year by 2030) 75°0 of available wood waste is assumed for
both Wood Waste CHP and Biochar Gray boxes are approximate estimates (see Appendix A)
23
2030
Reduction
Status
Wood Waste CHP
$40 /ton wood
105,980
Under
consideration
or
$70 /ton wood
162,542
Under
consideration
Combined Heat and
Bicchar
$40 /ton wood
40,793
New proposal
$70 /ton wood or
88, 475
New proposal
Solar
14,980
In progress
GSHPs
2,366
In progress
Property tax
incentives
*100s
New proposal
2nd Nature/Vatts
Green
161
In progress
Subtotal
180,149
23
Discussion
I. hood if "cute CHP
II. Combined Heat and Biochar
III. Solar PP2is
Ii: Ground Source Heat Pumps
T: Renewable Energy Property Tax Exemption
i7. Second Nature ii"atts Green
I. Wood Waste CHP
A 2008 study from the Midwest CHP Application Center at the University of Illinois — Chicago
(Haefke 2008) studied the availability of wood waste from forestry residue, mill waste, and clean urban
wood waste within 50 and 100 miles of Dubuque (using only Iowa counties not counting surrounding
states). This wood waste could be used in a combined heat and power (CHP) facility that could
generate a significant amount of energy. CHP facilities are power generators that both produce
electricity and utilize the resulting waste heat in surrounding buildings.
If the facility pays $40 per dry ton of wood, available wood waste could power up to a 27.6
MW facility. At $70 per dry ton, available wood waste could power up to a 43 MW facility. The 2008
study also estimated that this capacity would roughly double if wood from adjacent states were
accounted for. We conservatively assumed a facility equipped to utilize 75 °o of currently available
wood waste from Iowa only, yielding annual reductions of 105.980 tonnes at $40 /ton wood and
162.542 tonnes at $70 /ton wood in 2030.
This recommendation assumes that only wood haste would be utilized in the facility, and that
whole trees would not be used as a supplement or substitute. Harvesting whole trees for biomass
energy is not recommended from the standpoint of GHG emissions (see biogenic in glossary for
explanation of carbon debt) or long term forest health and productivity.
Because combustion of biomass is a major potential contributor to black carbon emissions,
proper emissions controls will be necessary in order to maximize GHG reductions and ensure healthy
air quality. Sustainable forestry practices should also be emphasized in the acquisition of wood waste,
as should any emissions resulting from the transport of wood waste from source to facility.
II. Combined Heat and Biochar
Biochar provides an alternative use for available wood waste in the Dubuque area (see hood
Waste CHP). Biochar is created through a process known as pyrolysis, which is the thermal
decomposition of organic matter in an oxygen -free environment. Pyrolysis produces liquid and gas
products know as syngas and bio -oil, which can both be used for heat and power to displace fossil
fuels. The process also leaves a type of charcoal known as biochar.
The residual biochar has market value as an amendment for degraded soils, improving soil
structure and turning them into the much coveted "terra pretta." Latin for black earth (see image
below).
24
Nutrient poor soil (left) and same soil type transformed into a fertile "terra petta " soil (nght)
The carbon in biochar is in a highly stable, biologically unavailable form In other words,
biochar essentially locks carbon in the soil and sequesters it from the atmosphere When burred, the
carbon in biochar is estimated to remain stable for hundreds to thousands of years This can make
pyrolysis a carbon negative process, meaning that it takes more carbon out of the atmosphere than it
puts into the atmosphere
Biochar can be sold as a soil amendment for potting mixes, agricultural soils, or forest soils, and
can also be used in other, lower -value applications such as barbecue charcoal It is not appropriate for
all soils, but in many cases can significantly improve soil structure and fertility, particularly on
degraded soil
A wood waste study conducted for Dubuque (Haefke 2008) found that at $401ton there would
be approximately 45,987 dry tons of the available mill waste for Dubuque, while at $701ton there
would be approximately 70,898 dry tons Mill waste is currently accepted at the DMASWA
composting facility free -of- charge, but hauling can be expensive and inconvenient for local mills
Syngas and bio -oil byproducts can be used for heating facilities or drying wood, and biochar
either can be used directly or sold in bulk for $260 a ton or more, depending on the application
(Coleman et al 2010) If used by DM SWA, biochar could significantly increase the quality andprice
of the the finished compost and would foster a local market for biochar until carbon markets develop
and create value for the carbon sequestration properties of biochar
Based on a study of the value of pyroloysis products (Coleman et al 2010), waste wood
obtainable for $401ton would yield $5,334,443 in annual revenue, while waste wood obtainable for
$701ton would yield $8,224,209 in biochar and bio -oil products (assuming 100% of wood waste is
utilized, 100% utilization is likely unrealistic but provides a baseline value) This assumes that bio -oil
will be used as a replacement heating oil, but several studies suggest that it brings much greater
revenue as a substitute for petro - chemicals in manufacturing (e g plastics, soaps, cleaning products)
If all existing mill residue were utilized in a biochar system, we estimate a COae reduction of
54,390 tonnes per year or 117,967 tonnes per year at $40 and $70, respectively, per ton of wood waste
At first glance this may appear lower than the GHG reduction from a Wood Waste CHP system
(above) However, unlike Wood Waste CHP, combined heat and biochar (CHB) would sequester a
significant amount of carbon and emit far fewer GHGs which, although they are biogenic, still
contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations However, because biogenic carbon is
technically not counted in GHG inventories, CHB facilities do not yet get "credit" for that
sequestration
25
Pyrolysis facilities are highly scalable, meaning that facilities can range from a portable outfit
on a small trailer to a significantly larger permanent facility and can easily be expanded with separate
modules. This scalability makes it ideal for mobile or on -site application at milling operations and
other sources of waste wood. It also means that smaller pilot facilities can be constructed as an initial
test of the feasibility and economics of CHB in Dubuque. Available funding through Limestone Bluffs
for small scale biomass projects could produce a very rapid return on the initial investment.
III. Solar /PPAs
There are several renewable energy businesses operating in Dubuque, including Eagle Point
Solar, Solar Planet, and Four Seasons Geothermal. Local generation of renewable energy represents a
significant opportunity for local businesses.
There are many economically attractive commercial-scale solar PV opportunities in Dubuque.
For example, restoration projects in historic downtown Dubuque (e.g. the revitalization of the Historic
Millwork District) can integrate solar panels into replacement roofs. Doing so could reduce total
system installation costs by as much as 30 °0. In addition, current State and Federal incentives favor
large scale business applications for solar PV.
A renewable energy partner purchase agreement (PPA) is one way that Dubuque businesses can
realize immediate savings from renewable energy without incurring risk or taking on responsibility for
equipment maintenance. PPAs are set up so that the installer is also the owner of the generating
equipment. The owner then sells electricity at a contracted rate to a business or buyer. Financing for
the project is built into the contract between the two parties along with a maintenance schedule and
insurance. Solar PV systems have a distinct advantage for PPAs because solar panels generate the most
electricity in the middle of the day when electricity demand is greatest and energy from the grid is most
expensive to purchase. As grid electricity rates continue to rise, local businesses that take advantage of
PPAs will save more and more over time because energy from renewable PPAs is sold at a flat,
contracted rate. This can remove a significant amount of uncertainty regarding operating costs for
businesses.
Eagle Point Solar of Dubuque projects that they will install approximately 750 kW /year of solar
PV for commercial applications and 50 kW /year of residential solar PV in Dubuque. We also project
that Eagle Point and other renewable operators will install an average of 40 kW of micro -wind and five
solar hot water systems per year citywide for the next twenty years.
In total, these efforts would yield approximately 14.980 tonnes annual reduction in CO2e by
2030. However, it is notable that the rapidly dropping cost of solar PV suggests that solar will achieve
grid parity in the near future and become a relatively commonplace feature on homes and commercial
buildings. We based our calculations solely on current plans and market conditions for small scale
renewables, so our estimates are likely to prove far too low.
IV. Ground Source Heat Pumps
Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) systems are central heating and cooling systems that pump
heat to or from the ground, taking advantage of the relatively constant ground temperature to improve
the efficiency and significantly reduce operational costs of conventional heating and cooling systems.
Depending on the building and type of system used, a GSHP can save anywhere from 20 -50 °0
of the energy required to heat and cool a building. With recent fluctuations in energy prices. GSHP
systems have been gaining popularity as way for homeowners to take control of their energy bills. In
Dubuque, 17 GSHPs were installed in 2010 alone (notably, these installations occurred during an
economic recession). If this trend continues there will be approximately 2.366 tonnes CO2e annual
reduction by 2030.
26
V. Renewable Energy Property Tax Exemption
This program would provide exemptions from property taxes for certain renewable energy
installations, including solar PV, solar thermal (e.g. solar hot water heaters), wind, and ground source
heat pumps. In other words, assessors would not add the value of renewable energy systems to the
taxable value of a property. This exemption is generally applied to both residential homeowners and
commercial /industrial facilities.
Iowa Code § 441.21(8) already exempts solar and wind energy systems from state property
taxes for five full assessment years and provides local governments with a local option to exempt wind
energy systems from local property taxes. Dubuque has yet to enact such a policy, but doing so could
enhance the financial incentives of investing in small scale renewable energy systems. With rising
conventional energy prices and the falling cost of renewable energy, renewables are poised to grow
significantly over the coming years. As such, we estimate that such a policy could yield 100 tonnes of
annual CO2e reduction from additional renewable capacity within the next two decades.
A policy could be structured in other ways as well. For instance, municipal utility bills could be
discounted based on the value of commercial/residential renewable systems. Such a program also has
the potential to expand to include all major renewable energy systems (e.g. geothermal) and even
certain major home energy efficiency improvements (e.g. Energy Star HVAC systems, window and
door installations) in order to facilitate the growth of all effective clean energy and efficiency
technologies. This may require changes in current state law, but demand from local governments could
catalyze those changes.
VI. Second Nature /Watts Green
These are voluntary renewable energy purchasing programs offered by Alliant Energy and
Maquoketa Valley Cooperative through which customers can purchase a percentage of their power
from renewable sources. For more information or to enroll, visit your electricity provider's website or
conduct an internet search for "Alliant Second Nature" or "Maquoketa Valley Watts Green."
In 2009, Alliant Energy estimated that 398 households in Dubuque were enrolled in 2nd Nature:
approximately 200 of those households enrolled between 2007 -2009, for an average of 67 per year
(Alliant Energy, personal communication 2010). Conservatively estimating that 50 new households
will enroll each year at the 25° o level, this would yield 244 tonnes CO2e reduction per year by 2030.
27
Transportation
GHG emissions from transportation are determined by a simple formula: (miles driven) x
(emissions /mile). As such, there are really only two ways to reduce GHG emissions from
transportation: (1) Reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled (VI\ITs): (2) Improve fuel efficiency.
There are opportunities for Dubuque to do both (Table 8).
It is notable that most of the initiatives described below are already in various stages of
planning and implementation. We do not account for such possibilities as electric vehicles or any
unforeseen future technological revolutions. Instead, we focus solely on options that Dubuque already
has.
i AITs
There are many strategies for reducing VNITs in Dubuque, all of which are highly
complementary. In other words, the strategies are not redundant, but enhance each other like pieces to
a puzzle. For instance, complete streets is a planning and design process intended to match the design
of roads to the needs of users, thus improving the convenience and efficiency of all modes of travel
from commercial vehicles and cars to bicycles and pedestrian traffic. Optimizing the design of the
transportation system to create "complete streets" will be facilitated by data from the Smarter City ITS
project. These design improvements will occur in tandem with the ongoing upgrade and redesign of
the public transit system. The proposed intermodal transportation facility would link these enhanced
transportation alternatives in a convenient, central location. The new fuel- efficient bus fleet would
reduce the GHG emissions of public transit. The SW Arterial could further reduce travel times and
downtown traffic congestion. Unbundling rents from parking will be facilitated by lower dependence
on automobiles, and will in turn further increase demand for less expensive modes of travel.
All these initiatives combine to provide a safe, convenient, and efficient transportation system
where conventional modes of travel (e.g. automobiles) are more efficient to use and less expensive
modes of travel (e.g. buses, bicycles, walking) are more accessible and convenient.
Fuel Efficiency
Fuel efficiency is largely determined by national and international trends in vehicle fuel
efficiency. However, there are several opportunities for fuel efficiency improvements in Dubuque. The
new fuel efficient bus fleet is a clear example, and installing particle filters on City government-
operated heavy duty diesel trucks could significantly reduce local black carbon emissions.
Benefits to Dubuque
GHG reduction is generally not the primary benefit of improving transportation infrastructure.
Enhanced mobility, reduced travel times, reduced congestion, job creation, improved traffic safety, and
improved health through better air quality are the major benefits. In most cases. GHG emissions are
merely a side benefit of projects that make sense for other reasons. In addition, rising oil prices make it
prudent to plan for increased future demand for less expensive modes of travel.
28
Table 8 Transportation related GHG reductions (tonnes CO_e /year by 2030) Gray boxes are approximate estimates (see
Appendix A)
Discussion
I. Complete Streets
II. Bus system transformation
III. Fuel efficient buses
Ii: Southwest Arterial
is Dubuque Smarter City ITS
i7. Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Facility
171. Particle filters on City vehicles
i7II. Unbundled parking
I. Complete Streets
Complete streets is a planning and design process that ensures that the health, safety, and
mobility of all transportation users are considered in all phases of road project planning, including
motorists, pedestrians, bicyclists, public transit users, commercial vehicles, and people of all ages and
abilities. Complete streets does not mean all modes on all roads," nor does it require specific design
features like sidewalks, bicycle lanes, or transit stops on any particular street. For each project,
planners evaluate the current and future needs of all users and design accordingly. Complete Streets
also does not require immediate reconstruction of our roads, but is implemented during regularly
scheduled road construction, reconstruction, and maintenance. This allows planners and engineers to
implement complete streets one project at a time, gradually piecing together a complete transportation
network that serves the needs of all users.
The GHG reductions from complete streets are not its primary benefit. The main benefit to the
community is bringing safe and convenient mobility options to citizens who are poorly served by
conventional transportation and struggle every day to reach workplaces, shopping, medical care, and
other essential destinations. Complete streets also can boost local commerce, help address the obesity
crisis, and improve air quality, thereby saving Iowans millions of dollars every year in preventable
29
2030
Reduction
Status
Complete Streets
18,909
In progress
Bus system
transformation
376
In progress
Fuel efficient buses
1,008
In progress
Southwest Arterial
7,762
Planned
Dubuque Smarter City ITS
4,591
In progress
Dubuque Intermodal
Transportation Facility
2,255
Planned
Particle filters on City
vehicles
knot included in
861 f
totals)
New proposa
Decouple rents from
parking
*100
New proposa
Subtotal
35,001
Discussion
I. Complete Streets
II. Bus system transformation
III. Fuel efficient buses
Ii: Southwest Arterial
is Dubuque Smarter City ITS
i7. Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Facility
171. Particle filters on City vehicles
i7II. Unbundled parking
I. Complete Streets
Complete streets is a planning and design process that ensures that the health, safety, and
mobility of all transportation users are considered in all phases of road project planning, including
motorists, pedestrians, bicyclists, public transit users, commercial vehicles, and people of all ages and
abilities. Complete streets does not mean all modes on all roads," nor does it require specific design
features like sidewalks, bicycle lanes, or transit stops on any particular street. For each project,
planners evaluate the current and future needs of all users and design accordingly. Complete Streets
also does not require immediate reconstruction of our roads, but is implemented during regularly
scheduled road construction, reconstruction, and maintenance. This allows planners and engineers to
implement complete streets one project at a time, gradually piecing together a complete transportation
network that serves the needs of all users.
The GHG reductions from complete streets are not its primary benefit. The main benefit to the
community is bringing safe and convenient mobility options to citizens who are poorly served by
conventional transportation and struggle every day to reach workplaces, shopping, medical care, and
other essential destinations. Complete streets also can boost local commerce, help address the obesity
crisis, and improve air quality, thereby saving Iowans millions of dollars every year in preventable
29
health care costs and lost work productivity. The full anticipated benefits are detailed in Green
Dubuque's 2010 report on complete streets in Dubuque (Schatz 2010). In early 2011, the Dubuque City
Council adopted a complete streets policy for the community.
In terms of GHG emissions, according to a 2009 report by the Center for Clean Air Policy,
policies like complete streets can typically reduce vehicle miles traveled (VNIT) by 10 °0 or more,
equivalent to a 19.137 tonnes CO2e per year in 2030 (assuming a 33° o improvement in overall fleet fuel
economy from 2009 to 2030). It is notable that this estimate does not account for the effects of
probable increases in oil prices over the next 20 years, which could significantly increase the impact
(and value) of complete streets in Dubuque.
II. Bus System Rebranding /Redesign
In 2009 -2010, the City of Dubuque and ECIA began an initiative to rebrand the former Keyline
transit system and improve the design and overall management of routes and operations. The new bus
fleet will bear the logo and color scheme of the new "Jule" transit system. Several transit entities have
experienced a 30 °o increase in ridership by changing nothing more than the color of their buses
(moving away from institutional white and gray), and Dubuque is working to follow suit.
The new management strategy goes much deeper than repainting and name - changing, however.
Routes and schedules are being carefully redesigned to match the needs of existing and potential riders,
which will improve route efficiency, cut costs, increase ridership, and bring bus service to more people
who demand it. The remaking of the transit system also includes a new fleet of fuel efficient buses (see
below) and the proposed intermodal transportation facility (see below).
Side benefits to the rebranding /redesign of the transit system include improved route efficiency,
convenient transportation options for those who choose public transit and those who have no choice,
reduced roadway congestion, improved air quality, and increased commerce/labor opportunities as
more people can reach workplaces and shopping destinations.
Assuming: (1) a single bus trip reduces GHG emissions by 10 lbs CO2
(publictransportation.org): (2) 276,342 trips per year on Keyline (2009 Transit Study): (3) a 30 °0
increase in ridership due to the efforts described above, the GHG impact is estimated at 376 tonnes
CO2e per year. This assumes that people riding the bus would otherwise drive the same distance in an
average automobile.
III. Fuel Efficient Buses
In 2010, ECIA and the City of Dubuque received grants to replace the Keyline (now known as
the Jule) bus fleet and equip the new buses with intelligent transportation system (ITS) technology.
Through these grants, the City acquired $3.8 million for fleet replacement. The ITS system includes
electronic fare boxes (rather than, for instance, punchcards), automated announcement systems, and
scheduling and tracking software that will allow transit users to more easily find their routes and track
bus arrivals and departures. The buses will consist of clean diesel vehicles that will significantly
improve fuel economy and air quality. Based on current ridership, the fleet upgrades will prevent
approximately 1,008 tonnes of CO2e emissions per year. However, if the redesign, rebranding, and new
management of the Jule bus system increases local demand for transit, these savings will be higher.
IV. Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Center
The Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Center (DITC) is a proposed facility that will connect
air, rail, bus, automobile, and river traffic at a single integrated transportation hub. Dubuque currently
has no facility where all travel and mobility options are linked in the same convenient, central location.
For instance, local and interstate bus services, airport shuttle services, long and short term vehicle
parking, and boat traffic all require users to travel to different locations across the city, making it
30
extremely cumbersome to effectively move from one mode to another, or even to effectively utilize a
single mode (e.g. local buses). This limits demand for alternative transportation modes as well as
decreasing the convenience and efficiency of the overall transportation network. The benefits of the
facility will increase further if the proposed Amtrak route between Dubuque and Chicago is approved.
The proposed facility would be located near the Port of Dubuque, with convenient access to
surrounding businesses, tourist attractions, the Historic Millwork District, the Mississippi River, and
U.S. Highways 20, 52. 61, and 151, which link Dubuque to other cities while serving as arterials to all
parts of the city.
Direct benefits include enhanced convenience for all transportation modes, increased parking in
the downtown and Port of Dubuque areas, and enhanced tourism and commerce. Other benefits
include improved air quality, decreased traffic congestion, and improved transportation safety.
Significant numbers of construction related and permanent jobs would also be created. The City of
Dubuque anticipates the creation of over 100 jobs and between $100 and $200 million in benefits over
the next 30 years.
In terms of GHG reduction, the City of Dubuque estimated that over 30 years. 102 tonnes of
NOx (289 times the global warming potential of CO2) and 45.088 tonnes of CO2 will be prevented,
which equates to 2.255 tonnes CO2e per year.
V. Southwest Arterial
The Southwest Arterial will be a 6.1 -mile four -lane divided freeway that will provide an
alternative route for traffic through southwestern Dubuque. It will connect the Dubuque Technology
Park on Dubuque's SW side, the new Dubuque Industrial Center West, and the existing Dubuque
Industrial Center on Dubuque's NW side. The Southwest Arterial project will provide an alternate,
direct, and efficient route for traffic through southwestern Dubuque, which will avoid the numerous
signalized intersections on Hwy 61/151, Hwy 20, and Central Avenue (Hwy 52/3). According to the
City of Dubuque's Federal TIGER Grant application, this project is anticipated to save 7.762 tonnes
CO2e per year, though the primary benefits of the SW Arterial will be reducing traffic congestion
within the city, improving air quality, and reducing travel times.
VI. Smarter City ITS
The Smarter City Intelligent Transportation Solution (Smarter City ITS) is a partnership
between the City of Dubuque and IBM to provide a sophisticated system for analyzing real -time
transportation data in order to improve system efficiency by addressing land use, economic
development, and transportation planning for a comprehensive transportation network that is less
dependent on cars.
According to the Federal Tiger Grant application submitted by the City of Dubuque in 2009,
when fully implemented the Smarter City ITS technology has the potential to reduce overall
transportation emission by 4.591 tonnes CO2e annually. However. GHG reduction is merely a side
benefit of this initiative. The primary benefits of Smarter City ITS will be reducing traffic congestion
within the city, improving health and air quality, reducing travel times, and improving traffic safety.
VII. Particle Filters on City Vehicles
Black carbon is essentially "soot" produced by the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. The
majority of black carbon emissions in the US come from diesel engines as well as wood burning stoves
and other unfiltered biomass burning. Black carbon has long been regulated for its negative health
impacts but has more recently drawn attention for its significant climate impacts.
Black carbon has been estimated to be the second largest contributor to climate change
(Ramanathan and Carmichael 2008). Unlike greenhouse gases, black carbon warms the air by
31
absorbing incoming solar radiation and converting it directly to heat. It also darkens snow and ice,
leading to more rapid melting and significant impacts on polar regions.
Unlike CO2. which has an atmospheric lifetime of 100+ years, black carbon lingers in the
atmosphere for just a short time. As such, eliminating black carbon emissions has an immediate impact
on the climate and could be the fastest means of slowing climate change in the near future.
The EPA has recently enacted regulations that will require Dubuque and other mid -sized U.S.
cities to install monitoring systems to better enforce compliance with the Clean Air Act. Although
Dubuque does not currently monitor air quality, data from the nearest air quality monitor in Potosi.
Wisconsin indicated PM, levels of 36.4 and 35.2 for 2007 and 2008 respectively. If the three -year
average exceeds 38.4, the area will be designated as not in attainment and the state and local
government must develop a plan to improve air quality within three years.
Inhaling fine particulate matter can trigger heart attacks, strokes, irregular heartbeat and
exacerbate asthma and other respiratory ailments. Addressing black carbon will directly decrease
particulate matter concentrations, resulting in significant improvements in public health as well as
compliance with Federal air quality standards.
For diesel vehicles in particular there are several effective technologies available. Substituting a
B20 blend of biodiesel reduces PM emissions by 15 °0. During summer months when temperatures are
higher. B100 biodiesel can reduce PM by as much as 70 °0. B100 and B20 will also decrease CO2
emissions by 78 °o and 15 °o respectively (EPA 2002). In addition to the use of cleaner fuels, most
diesel engines can be easily and inexpensively retrofitted to reduce emissions. Diesel oxidation
catalysts have been in use for over 30 years, can be used on almost any diesel vehicle, and can
eliminate 25-50°0 of black carbon emissions. Newer, more efficient diesel particle filters can eliminate
over 90° o of black carbon emissions.
The City of Dubuque could retrofit all municipally owned diesel vehicles with particle filters
and use a B20 blend of biodiesel to mitigate black carbon emissions. Dubuque has already begun to
use clean diesel vehicles in its fleet and is incorporating biodiesel into its fuel mix. If emissions
reductions efforts were extended to the entire fleet, the particle filters alone are estimated to yield a 861
tonne per year CO2e reduction. Strictly speaking, this reduction would not "count" toward total
reductions because black carbon is not included in Dubuque's GHG inventory. Nonetheless, it does
represent a real and significant impact to climate and local air quality.
VIII. Unbundled Parking
Unpriced parking spaces are typically "bundled" with building costs, meaning that those spaces
are automatically included as hidden fees in building purchases or rents. Unbundled parking refers to
parking spaces being sold or rented separately according to the occupant's actual needs. For instance,
instead of renting an apartment for $1000 per month with two parking spaces at no extra cost, the
apartment rent would be $800 and parking spaces could be rented for $100 each.
Unbundled parking allows occupants to save money by paying only for the spaces they use and
provides financial rewards for reducing parking demand. This system works efficiently only if local
officials regulate and /or charge for nearby parking in order to avoid any spillover problems that could
result from residents "cheating" the system to avoid paying rents for their actual parking needs.
The main benefit of unbundled parking is financial by making parking costs explicit and
allowing property owners to pay for parking according to actual need. In terms of GHGs, unbundled
parking provides occupants with financial incentives to reduce the number of parking spaces they
require and, consequently, the number of vehicles they operate or allow to park for "free" on their
property. In turn, this provides incentives for alternative modes of travel that do not require a parking
space. It is difficult to predict the precise GHG impact of this action, but we estimate that it would be
on the order of 100s of tonnes CO2e per year.
32
The Built Environment
The Built Environment is probably the widest ranging category in this report, covering
everything from the design of buildings to the planning of the community as a whole (Table 9). The
recommendations in this section are divided into three major categories: (1) Waste water treatment. (2)
Energy savings and efficiency, and (3) Community planning and development.
Waste Water Treatment
GHG reductions from Dubuque's water waste treatment infrastructure will result from the
ongoing replacement of Dubuque's existing incineration -based sewage treatment with an anaerobic
digestion system, scheduled for completion in 2014. The anaerobic digestion system also has the
potential to host a combined heat and power (CHP) facility to capture methane emissions and burn
them for electricity as well as heat for nearby facilities.
Energy Savings & Efficiency
ECEA's Petal Project is an award - winning voluntary green - business - certification program which
provides clear standards and technical assistance to businesses looking to reduce their energy
consumption and improve the sustainability of their business model. The 7th Power
Sustainability /Dubuque School partnership is an ongoing and very successful initiative, saving local
schools over $200,000 in the 2009 -2010 school year alone. The IBM Smarter City initiative is a
partnership between Dubuque and IBM to enable homeowners to identify inefficient or unintended use
of water and energy. IECC building standards are an ever - improving set of standards for energy
efficiency in the design and construction of new residential and commercial buildings, while the LEED
for Existing Buildings program from the U.S. Green Building Council offers energy efficiency
opportunities to existing facilities. RA.C.E. is a framework for mitigating the high up -front costs of
commercial and residential efficiency improvements, and there are various Federal and State incentives
to help businesses and homeowners save energy and improve bottom lines. Put together, these
programs bring energy efficiency opportunities to many different sectors of the community.
Community Planning and Development
Dubuque's Unified Development Code (UDC) was created in 2009 to provide guidance and
standards for planning and development in Dubuque. The UDC contains many guidelines to facilitate
GHG reduction in Dubuque, ranging from small scale renewable energy projects, to encouraging mixed
use neighborhoods, to reducing VMTs. An infill development policy could provide additional
opportunities to maximize urban design efficiency while taking advantage of existing local
infrastructure.
33
Table 9 Built environment- related GHG reductions (tonnes CO_e /year by 2030) Gray boxes are approximate estimates
(see Appendix A)
34
2030
Reduction
Status
ECIA Petal Project
15,573
In progress
WPCP
Anaerobic digestion
upgrade
Methane capture
791
2,653
In progress
In progress
Th Power
Sustainability /Dubuque School
Partnership
1,035
In progress
IBM Smarter City
Pilot
Citywide
2,271
51,760
In progress
Planned
IECC Standards
Residential
Commercial
20,610
28,127
In progress
In progress
US Green Building Council
LEED for existing buildings
*1,OOOs
In progress
PACE (or similar)
2,922
New proposa
State /Federal programs
*100s
In progress
Dubuque UDC
*1,000s
In progress
Infll Development
*1,000s
New proposa
Subtotal
128,842
34
Discussion
I. ii PCP Anaerobic Digestion
II. ii 'PCP AlethaneCapture
III. ECL 1 Petal Project
IV. 'Power Sustanabilitj• Dubuque School Partnership
is IBM Smarter City Initiative
17. IECC Building Standards
171. US Green Building Council - LEED for Existing Buildings
1711
II: State and Federal Incentives
X Dubuque UDC
.II. Infill Development
I. WPCP Anaerobic Digestion
Dubuque's Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP) is a secondary wastewater treatment facility
responsible for treating and disposing of the community's sewage and wastewater. The current facility
was designed in the 1970s, upgraded in the early 1990s, and in the most recent review proved
insufficient to continue to meet Dubuque's growing needs.
Various options were considered for replacing the existing facility before the City settled on
anaerobic digestion as the best option to meet Dubuque's needs for the next 20 years and beyond. This
upgrade is scheduled for completion in 2014. In a presentation given by Strand Consultants in
February 2008, it was indicated that the transition from waste incineration to anaerobic digestion (with
land application) would reduce electricity by 928.172 kWh /year and fuel oil consumption by 16.972
gal /year, equivalent to approximately 3.688 tonnes CO2e per year.
II. WPCP Methane Capture
Anaerobic digestion at the WPCP will produce methane, an odorless GHG that can be captured
and burned for energy. If methane from the WPCP were utilized in a co- generation system, that system
could meet the WPCP's heat and power requirements and reduce the facility's total GHG emissions by
a total of 1.188 tonnes of CO2e. With the continued rise in fuel and energy costs, these combined
upgrades could significantly reduce annual operating costs by up to an estimated $750,000 per year.
The amount of methane captured by the facility could be increased by instituting a city -wide
program to flush certain food waste down "In- sink - orator" sink disposals and harvesting the methane
emissions resulting from food decomposition (see ii "cute Management section for more details).
III. ECIA Petal Project
The Petal Project is a voluntary green business certification program developed and
administered by ECIA. The Petal Project provides businesses with a clear sustainability framework
and technical assistance to improve the environment and the bottom line. The Petal Project covers a
broad spectrum of environmental impacts, including a strong energy savings component that relies on
the EPA's Energy Star standards for energy efficient workplaces.
The Petal Project began in 2010, and within the first year ten major local businesses and
institutions became the first participants. The program is seeking 11 more businesses in 2011 and will
continue to expand its efforts each year while continuing to re- certify and advise existing Petal Project
participants. This effort will require strong partnerships between Sustainable Dubuque, the Dubuque
35
Chamber of Commerce. Dubuque 2.0, and other organizations to promote and support the Petal Project.
In particular, a city -wide awareness and education campaign to encourage consumers to patronize
certified businesses could facilitate the rapid expansion of the program.
The primary benefits of the program are to the bottom line, image, and work environment of the
businesses themselves. GHG reduction is a secondary (but substantial) benefit of the Petal Project. We
estimate that the Petal Project will yield 15.573 tonnes CO2e reduction by 2030. This assumes that 1 in
10 businesses in the commercial and industrial sectors will attain Petal Project certification over the
next 20 years and that certified businesses on average will decrease their electricity and natural gas use
by 20 °o and 10 °0, respectively.
iv. r Power Sustainability /Dubuque School Partnership
The partnership between 7th Power Sustainable. LLC and Dubuque community schools works to
cut energy use and utility costs through a variety of simple operational and energy efficiency solutions.
According to Mark Henning of 7th Power Sustainable, the Dubuque Community School District has
achieved 11 °o energy reduction in the 2009 -10 school year compared to the previous two years, saving
more than $212,600. The next goal is to achieve a 25 to 30° o reduction in the next three to five years.
According to projections provided by Mark Henning, anticipated reductions achieved by 2013 will
yield total average annual reductions of approximately 1.035 tonnes CO2e and hundreds of thousands
of dollars per year in utility savings.
V. IBM Smarter City Pilot
The Smarter City pilot is a partnership between the City of Dubuque and IBM to develop smart
metering and information systems that will enable homeowners to identify inefficient or unintended use
of water and energy. The pilot project of 1.000 homes includes information for water, transportation,
and electricity .
In an application for the EPA's Showcase Communities Grant (submitted on 7/19/10), the City
of Dubuque projected the following reductions as a result of the pilot: 31 tonnes from reduced water
use 831 tonnes from reduced vehicle trips: and 1,640 tonnes from reduced electricity use. This equates
to an annual reduction of 2.502 tonnes of CO2e.
The application also projected that when rolled out to all 60,000 Dubuque residents and 22.800
Dubuque households, this would equate to a reduction of 57,056 tonnes of CO2e annually in Dubuque."
The primary benefit to this program is reduced energy losses and utility costs for consumers, in
addition to the significant GHG benefits.
VI. IECC Residential /Commercial
The International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) is a building code standard created by the
International Code Council in 2000. It is a model code which can be voluntarily adopted by state and
municipal governments to establish minimum design and construction requirements for energy
efficiency in new residential or commercial buildings. Every three years the IECC is reviewed by the
International Code Council to align with current best practices in the industry. The 2009 IECC
contains several major improvements in energy efficiency over the 2006 IECC, which is the current
state code of Iowa. The most notable changes are improved duct sealing and efficient lighting
requirements. A limited analysis of these changes indicates that a typical owner of a new home will
save $245 to $276 per year from these improvements.
The City of Dubuque Building Services Department has consistently adopted new versions of
the IECC within one year of their release. Over the last ten years Dubuque has averaged 175 new
residential building per year with a relatively stable population around 60,000 people. Based on these
trends and the assumption that new versions of the IECC continue to yield proportionate percent
36
increases in building efficiency, residential buildings will save approximately 20.610 tonnes CO2e
annually, and commercial buildings (based on national trends) will save approximately 28.127 tonnes
CO2e annually by 2030. So although the primary benefit of these standards is in building quality and
utility savings for property owners, they also represent a significant GHG reduction for the community.
VII. US Green Building Council LEED for Existing Buildings
LEED is a U.S. Green Building Council program providing building owners and operators with
a concise framework for identifying and implementing practical and proven green building design,
construction, operations, and maintenance solutions. LEED is most prominently applied to new
construction projects, which re -use, recycle, and minimize construction materials while creating
buildings designed to maximize water and energy efficiency, minimize GHG emissions, and improve
the indoor environment of the building itself Examples of LEED certified facilities in Dubuque
include the new Hormel Foods processing facility and McGraw -Hill Publishing.
The LEED for Existing Buildings program expands the focus of LEED to meet the needs of
existing building owners and operators LEED for Existing Buildings addresses cleaning and
maintenance issues, recycling programs, exterior and grounds maintenance, weatherization and energy
savings. HVAC system upgrades, and other money saving and sustainable operations opportunities.
Such opportunities are particularly attractive in the current economic climate, where innovative use and
management of existing facilities may be more economically attractive than constructing entirely new
facilities. According to Jerry liudelson, author of the book Greening Existing Buildings. existing
building upgrades are the fastest growing sector of the green building movement, with over 450 million
square feet of buildings signing up for the LEED for Existing Buildings program in 2008 alone.
Yudelson reports that the LEED program generates more than 50 °o annual cash -on -cash returns for
building owners, yielding rapid payback of up front investments.
The benefits to this program are both financial and environmental. In terms of GHG emissions,
the primary benefits of the program come from energy and materials savings. Based on case studies
from other communities and the amount of commercial/industrial emissions in Dubuque (approx.
600.000 tonnes in 2009), there is potential for major reductions in Dubuque on the order of tens of
thousands of tonnes CO2e. Without more specific data, however, and considering the slight overlap
with the Petal Project's mission, we make a more conservative estimate of 1.000 of tonnes of CO2
reduction per year, though we note that the true figure could be significantly greater.
VIII. P.A.C.E.(or similar private /public financing program)
Property Assessed Clean Energy, or PACE, is an effective and proven tool for local
governments to empower community members to make renewable energy improvements to their
homes and property without the burden of upfront costs and delayed returns on investment, which have
historically been the biggest barriers to renewable energy and energy efficiency investment.
PACE programs have been implemented across the country. In a typical PACE program, cities
set up special "clean energy finance districts" capable of issuing low- interest bonds to residential or
commercial property owners. Participating property owners use available bond money to pay for
renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements. Property owners then pay the loan back
through a long -term (15 -20 year) assessment on their property taxes.
These programs are generally structured to ensure that: (1) the amount of money property
owners save on monthly utility bills from PACE improvements exceeds the amount those property
owners pay on their property taxes, thus ensuring a sustained net profit for property owners, (2)
payback to the issuing body occurs at a low rate of interest such that when homeowner payback is
complete, the assets of the program increase. In other words, both the homeowner and the municipality
end up benefiting from the program. Notably. PACE is a strictly voluntary local initiative and imposes
37
no direct cost on those who choose not to participate.
The major benefits of this program are to the finances of property owners, though GHG
reduction is a significant side benefit. Based on case studies of other cities, a community of Dubuque's
size can expect peak participation of 100 homeowners per year, with a total participation over 20 years
of approximately 968 homes and average efficiency improvements of 20 °o per project (these
calculations also account for expected per capita energy use /emissions trends over the next 20 years).
This yields an annual GHG reduction of 2.922 tonnes CO2e by 2030. Notably, these projections
include only homeowners and do not account for the significantly greater potential reductions from
commercial properties.
Current status ofPACE
Under current Iowa law. PACE programs are prohibited. Also, the program is currently (as of
early 2011) still being debated by the Federal Housing Financing Agency (FHFA), which has delayed
program implementation nationally. So ACE currently is not available to Dubuque in its most widely
implemented form. Nonetheless. PACE or similarly structured programs are likely to continue to gain
support and participation across the country. As of this writing. 26 states have allowed PACE and Iowa
seems likely to follow suit, pending FHFA approval of PACE programs. If Dubuque has a plan in
place, it can implement PACE as soon as it is permitted in Iowa and get a head start on grants and other
initial funding sources.
IX. State and Federal Incentives
There are many State and Federal incentives for efficiency improvements in residential,
commercial, and government buildings. These incentives help property owners take advantage of the
rapid payback periods of efficiency improvements by mitigating the up front costs of those
improvements. These incentives will doubtless continue to grow over the next 20 years. We will not
detail available State and Federal incentives here, but details can be found at: http: / /www.dsireusa.org /.
We estimate conservatively by 2030. State and Federal incentives will reduce GHG emissions by
an additional 100 tonnes CO2e per year, though it could be significantly more depending on how
incentives and demand evolve over the next 20 years.
X. City of Dubuque UDC
The City of Dubuque Unified Development Code (UDC) was created in 2009 to provide
guidance and standards for planning and development in the Dubuque community. Dubuque's UDC
will advance the long term sustainability of the community's built environment, which underlies so
much of our environmental impact - from transportation and building efficiency to land use and water
quality. For instance, studies have found that buildings constitute up to 40 °0 of GHG emissions, while
transportation accounts for 21 °o of Dubuque's emissions. That is over 60 °o of Dubuque's GHG
emissions affected by development, making smart development one of the most significant components
of local sustainability.
Dubuque's UDC makes sustainable design the new standard and inefficient conventional
development the exception. In terms of economic and social well - being, the code ensures that
Dubuque's built environment supports mobility, healthy lifestyles, and economic prosperity by
facilitating compact and mixed use development in urban and suburban settings. In terms of
environmental sustainability, the code promotes floodplain management BNIPs, healthy urban
ecosystems and greenspace, and LID standards for stormwater management by minimizing the extent
and impacts of impervious surfaces, among other advanced design standards.
Dubuque's UDC also will have significant impact on GHG emissions. It will clearly reduce
vehicle miles traveled and congestion through improved street designs and an emphasis on compact
38
and mixed use development. It also facilitates the development of energy efficiency and small scale
renewable energy projects for local residential and commercial properties. There is significant overlap
with other reductions discussed in this report (e.g. complete streets), so it is difficult to precisely
quantify the annual GHG impact of the UDC. However, given the significant scope of the UDC, we
conservatively estimate that the GHG impact will be on the order of 1.000s of tonnes CO2e per year,
though it could be much more depending on implementation.
XI. Infill Development
Infill development policies vary significantly in form and application, but share the common
goal of shifting urban growth from outer - suburban and undeveloped peripheral areas to existing central
cities, downtowns, and inner suburbs. In other words, the focus of infill is on the development rather
than expansion of existing city space. For the past several decades, much of Dubuque's growth has
occurred in outlying areas (e.g. new suburbs), requiring the costly expansion and maintenance of city
infrastructure to those new areas, including streets, sewers, utilities, schools, emergency medical
services, fire protection, and law enforcement. Infill development, on the other hand, shifts growth into
established city boundaries, which helps to ensure that development is spread evenly within the city
and takes advantage of existing infrastructure, thus limiting costs to taxpayers.
In terms of GHG emissions, infill development can significantly limit VMTs by encouraging
compact development and mixed use neighborhoods with residences, workplaces, shopping facilities,
schools, and other daily destinations located closer to one another. Infill also facilitates the
revitalization of downtown areas. The Port of Dubuque and Historic Millwork District are two
prominent local examples of re- developing existing space and infrastructure, and are responsible for
attracting countless tourists, residents, and investment dollars to Dubuque. Other infill benefits include
reducing commute times and improving the efficiency of the transportation network, which will
consequently improve local air quality.
Infill development complements existing guidelines in the Dubuque UDC (described above),
which also works to achieve mixed use and compact development. It is difficult to precisely estimate
the GHG reduction of an iufill policy. To our knowledge, none of the many communities that have
instituted infill development have calculated the GHG impact of their policies. But given the potential
impacts on VMTs in Dubuque, we conservatively estimate the GHG impact will be on the order of
1.000s of tonnes CO2e per year by 2030.
39
Other Reductions
This section discusses reduction strategies that do not fit neatly into the major categories. There
are some relatively large opportunities for GHG reduction in this category, including the cool
roofs /cool pavement carbon offset opportunity (Table 10). This category also includes R -22 and HFC
refrigerant emission reduction, which is a national trend to reduce the emission of synthetic, highly
potent GHGs.
Finally, we discuss an assortment of community organizations that provide a wide array of
programs for enhancing the sustainability of the Dubuque community. Many of these programs will
not yield enormous GHG reductions by themselves, but put together they will have a significant
impact.
Table 10 Other GHG reductions (tonnes CO_e /year by 2030)
Discussion
I. City Tree Planting
II 1Alzscellaneous Community Based Efforts
III. Cool Roofs Cool Pavement
Ii: R-22 Phaseout and HFC Reduction
I. City Tree Planting Program
We assumed that a net of 1.500 new trees will be planted citywide for the next twenty years, and
that each tree will sequester approximately 20 kg of CO2 per year. By 2030, this will reduce
atmospheric GHGs by approximately 600 tonnes CO2e per year.
II. Miscellaneous Community Based Efforts
Several City and community organizations have created sustainability- related programs that will
reduce GHG emissions. Dubuque 2.0. Sustainable Dubuque, the Four Mounds Energy Center, and
Green Dubuque, among others, are creating an array of programs designed to engage, educate, and
40
2030
Reduction
Status
City tree planting
600
In progress
Cool roofs /pavement program
1,057
New proposal
HFC /R -22 phaseout
11,148
In progress
Four Mounds, Dubuque 2 0
Sustainable Dubuque, Green
Dubuque — Miscellaneous
initiatives
22,296
(2% reduction
between a//)
In progress
Subtotal
35,641
Discussion
I. City Tree Planting
II 1Alzscellaneous Community Based Efforts
III. Cool Roofs Cool Pavement
Ii: R-22 Phaseout and HFC Reduction
I. City Tree Planting Program
We assumed that a net of 1.500 new trees will be planted citywide for the next twenty years, and
that each tree will sequester approximately 20 kg of CO2 per year. By 2030, this will reduce
atmospheric GHGs by approximately 600 tonnes CO2e per year.
II. Miscellaneous Community Based Efforts
Several City and community organizations have created sustainability- related programs that will
reduce GHG emissions. Dubuque 2.0. Sustainable Dubuque, the Four Mounds Energy Center, and
Green Dubuque, among others, are creating an array of programs designed to engage, educate, and
40
inspire the community toward more sustainable lifestyles. In the past two years alone, these
organizations have instituted the following programs, among many others:
a Dubuque 2.0 Community Sustainability Game
a Green Dubuque 2012 by 2012 program
a Green Asset Map
a Green Drinks
a Four Mounds Energy Center
• Energy auditor training
• Green Iowa project
• Rebate and incentive compilation
• CFLs /weatherization materials
a Annual Growing Sustainable Communities conference
a Informative newsletters, events, websites, and materials
a Dubuque C SA promotion program
a Etc. (for more information on these and other programs, visit the organizations' respective
websites)
These organizations are in their infancy yet have already established presence and momentum
in the community. It is difficult to project what programs these and other organizations will come up
with over the next twenty years, let alone what GHG impacts those programs will have As such,
instead of speculating on the GHG impact of the myriad existing and possible future initiatives, we
propose a modest goal of a combined 2 °o reduction in community emissions between these
organizations (i.e. 2 °o beyond what is achieved through the other options discussed in this plan). This
amounts to 0.1° o of additional reductions each year for the next 20 years.
III. Cool Roofs /Cool Pavement
Compared to dark colored roofs and blacktop, lighter colored, more reflective roofs and
pavement absorb less energy from the sun and decrease the amount of warming on earth's surface.
White roofs in particular are widely recognized as one of the simplest, cheapest, and most immediate
climate stabilization solutions. White roofs can also save energy by decreasing building temperatures
and thus cooling and refrigeration costs during the summer months. Making roofs and pavements less
absorptive also can significantly reduce the urban heat island effect (UHI). The UHI is basically the
local "island" of elevated temperatures that occurs in urban environments due to absorption of sunlight
on dark urban surfaces. Cool roofs /pavement can minimize this effect and reduce heat stress and levels
of temperature- sensitive air pollutants (e.g. smog).
Cool roofs can be created using, for instance, waste paint or whitewash. New York City.
Chicago, and many other cities across the country are implementing cool roof programs. Cool
pavement (typically a thin, tough, road -ready coating) also has been used in many cities, particularly
for crosswalks, bicycle lanes, and blacktopped parking lots or playground areas where extremely high
summertime temperatures often occur.
A 2010 study from Berkeley National Laboratory (Menon et al. 2010) indicated that painting or
whitewashing 1 m2 of rooftop is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 8.9 kg /yr, while putting a thin
"cool pavement" coating on 1 m2 of pavement (e.g. parking lots, playgrounds, driveways, crosswalks,
streets, etc.) is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 2.45 kg /yr.
Conservative estimates of the amount of roofed and paved area in Dubuque (17.5°o of the area
paved: 12.5 °o roofed, which are half what was estimated in the Berkeley study) indicates that
41
increasing the reflectivity of all roofs and paved surfaces in Dubuque would offset approximately
100.000 tonnes /year of CO2 emissions. So there is clearly significant potential for this in Dubuque.
For our estimates, we assumed that 1 °0 of roofs and paved areas could be coated in the next 20 years,
yielding around 1.000 tonnes CO2e in annual reductions. Focusing on large commercial and industrial
buildings using waste paint could be a particularly simple and inexpensive way to achieve this.
In considering such a program, the potential for increased heating demand during winter (due to
less sunlight absorbed by lighter roofs) should be compared to the potential benefits of cool roofs to
ensure that it is appropriate for a given building.
IV. HFC Refrigerants and R -22 Phaseout
HFC refrigerants are synthetic chemicals that often have extraordinarily high global warming
potential. Pound for pound, some HFCs have over 10.000 -times the warming potential of CO2.
Studies have estimated that HFCs constitute approximately 2 °0 of national GHG emissions in the US,
and that this percentage could double by 2050 under a business -as -usual scenario (EPA 200%; Velders
et al. 2009). R -22, one of the most common refrigerants in commercial use, is scheduled to be phased
out from 2010 -2030 as agreed to in the 1987 Montreal Protocol. This is being done to prevent further
degradation of the ozone layer, but it is also expected to have significant climate benefits by
substituting substances with a lower GWP than R -22 (and R -23, which is emitted during the production
of R -22).
In addition, the Federal government is working with European and other North American
countries to implement a global framework for reducing HFCs by approximately 50 -70 °o by 2030
(90°0 by 2050). The focus of this framework goes beyond ozone depletion to consider the climate and
human health impacts of refrigerants. This phaseout will require little action on the part of Dubuque,
though local businesses could help to accelerate this process by joining other corporations in
voluntarily adopting alternative refrigerants (e.g. Coca -Cola. McDonalds. PepsiCo, and others in the
"Refrigerants. Naturally!" partnership).
Given the high number of food and beverage processing, storage, and other industrial facilities
in Dubuque, we conservatively assume that national averages apply to Dubuque and that approximately
2 °o of our emissions are constituted by refrigerants. The phaseout of R -22 and other HFCs should
therefore yield at least a 50 °o reduction in local refrigerant emissions. More precise estimates cannot
be produced without detailed emissions of current refrigerant usage and turnover in Dubuque, so we
assume a 1 °o reduction in total emissions by 2030.
42
TOTAL REDUCTIONS
SCENARIOS
The total GHG reduction we achieve by 2030 depends on two things what we do in Dubuque,
and external trends in vehicle and electricity emissions We created three scenarios for different
external trends while keeping Dubuque's actions constant The three external emissions scenarios are
described in greater detail in the Emassaons Trends section and Appendix A
I Low Emissions Scenario, in which current commitments toward renewable energy and vehicle
fuel efficiency are met, and the positive trends created by those commitments continue until at
least 2025 Under tins scenario, Dubuque can achieve over 50% reduction by 2030 using the
actions described in the plan (Table 11)
II Medium Emissions Scenario, in which current commitments toward renewables and vehicle
efficiency are met, but improvements beyond that are only moderate, being comparable to
trends for the past decades Under tins scenario, Dubuque can achieve approximately 45%
mductaon by 2030 using the actions described in the plan
III High Emissions Scenanos, in which current trends and commitments toward renewables and
vehicle efficiency are largely met, but improvements beyond those commitments are minimal,
often being less than recent trends Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve apprommately
40 % reduction by 2030 using the actions descnbed in the plan
Table 11 Total OW) em ssion reductions by 2030 (tonnes COrefyear) under three external emissions scenarios External
emission scenarios are based on various existing and future trends in vehtcle and electricity emissions
Sector
High-
emissions
Mid -range
Low -
emissions
Waste
67,322
66,600
65,448
Local energy
185,473
174,407
156,740
Transportation
36,532
35,001
33,561
Built Environment
130,124
128,843
126,797
Other reductions
35,641
35,641
35,641
External trends
27,515
91,084
182,801
Total reductions
482,607
531,576
600,988
Totals
High-
emissions
Mid -range
Low -
emissions
2003 emissions
1,054,216
1,054,216
1,054,216
2009 emissions
1,114,785
1,114,785
1,114,785
Total reductions
(from above)
482,607
531,576
600,988
2030 emissions
(estimated)
632,178
583,209
513,797
Percent reduction
from 2003 levels
44 7%
51 3%
43
In summary, estimated reductions range from 40 -51 °o by 2030. Even in the high- emissions
scenario, the Dubuque community can still achieve 40 °o reduction by 2030 using only the actions
described in this plan. In considering these numbers, remember that the plan only includes actions that
are currently available to Dubuque and does not include any additional GHG reduction opportunities
that may arise over the next 20 years. It would be surprising indeed if significant new opportunities did
not arise over the coming decades, especially considering how much progress Dubuque has made in the
past five years alone: the vast majority of the GHG reductions outlined here have arisen in the past five
years.
Similarly, even the low - emissions external trends scenario is based solely on current
commitments and continued trends. It does not account for any future national or state initiatives to
boost renewable energy capacity, future growth in electric vehicles or public transit, or the development
of new technologies. Any of those could occur over the next 20 years, further facilitating 50 °o
reduction by 2030. Nonetheless, we chose to err on the conservative side and assume that the bulk of
reductions will have to occur locally.
44
FEASIBILITY OF 50% BY 2030
This plan was designed to pnontize existing GHG reduction actions in the Dubuque
community And in fact, half of the reductions in this plan consist of actions that are already in
progress (31 %) or are firmly planned and merely awaiting implementation (19 %), such as the SW
Artenal and Intermodal Thansportatron Facility An additional 32% of proposed reductions have been
studied and are under consideration within the community (e g the wood waste CHP system described
m the Local Energy section)
In total, that is 82% of proposed reductions that are under consideration; planned and
awaiting full funding or final approval; or are already occurring in Dubuque Only a small
portion of the reduction relies on external trends and proposals newly set out in this plan In other
words, the 50% by 2030 goal will not require revolutionary changes in the community Nonetheless,
setting that initial target will help spur local and regional innovation, bnng focus to Dubuque's purswt
of further GHG reduction strategies, and bnng exciting new opportunities to our city
New
Proposals 1%
Fig9 Percent of total GHG reductions by 2030 (in mid -range external emissions scenano) from external reduction trends,
initiatives that are already in progress in Dubuque, initiatives that are already planned or being planned for Dubuque,
initiatives that are currently being studied and are under consideration, and new opportunities proposed by this plan Where
there was overlap in reductions (e g an either -or situation between an action that was planned or anew proposal), the action
currently closer to implementation was chosen and included in estimates, while the other was excluded
45
BENEFITS TO DUBUQUE
INTRODUCTION
As discussed in the previous sections, most of the options presented in this plan yield significant
immediate benefits to Dubuque. While GHG reduction is the common thread tying this plan together,
it is by no means the only or even main benefit. The vast majority of options in this plan are so- called
"no- regret" solutions that are in the community's interest to implement regardless of climate impact. In
other words, the primary benefits of most recommendations will be to local Health, Economic
Prosperity, and Quality of Life.
HEALTH BENEFITS
Air Quality
Improved air quality is the clearest health benefit of reducing the burning of fossil fuels.
Reduced VMTs, improved fuel efficiency, and lower traffic congestion will all bring cleaner air to
Dubuque. In addition, any action that reduces energy use also reduces the amount of energy demanded
from power plants, leading to less coal burned and cleaner air. This is particularly true because the
oldest, dirtiest power plants are typically the ones that are turned off first as energy demand is reduced.
For instance, Alliant Energy's Dubuque Generating Station coal plant near downtown Dubuque is one
of the oldest and least efficient power plants in the region. As such, it is scheduled to be taken off -line
in 2015 and is expected to be used mainly during periods of "peak demand" in the meantime. This
should significantly improve local air quality in Dubuque by 2015, and provides an added incentive to
conserve energy and avoid "peak demand" until then. There have been concerns in recent years that air
quality in Dubuque is nearing unhealthy non - attainment levels, especially in terms of fine particulates
that contribute to respiratory ailments and other health problems, so air quality improvements could
yield great benefits to local public health.
Urban Heat Island
Tree planting and the cool roof /pavement program would not only reduce GHGs, but also would
reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect in Dubuque. The UHI is basically the local "island" of
elevated temperatures that occurs in urban environments due to absorption of sunlight on dark urban
surfaces. Dubuque's urban heat island has not been measured, but in other cities average urban
temperatures 5 + °F above the surrounding countryside are not uncommon. These higher temperatures
can exacerbate heat related hazards, increase levels of temperature sensitive pollutants such as ground
level ozone (smog), and increase electricity demand for air conditioning and refrigeration. Tree
planting, smart growth planning, and a cool roof /pavement program could help minimize the Dubuque
UHI. Additionally, minimizing climate change will also minimize temperature increases in Dubuque.
Fitness and Safety
An increased emphasis on pedestrian and bicycle travel options will facilitate active transport
and recreation in Dubuque, yielding improvements in physical fitness. More compact infrastructure
means a more compact coverage area for police, fire fighters, and emergency medical services. Also,
more complete streets are safer streets, generally decreasing rates of collisions, injuries, and mortality.
46
ECONOMIC BENEFITS
Jobs, Investment, and Economic Prosperity
Financially, sustainability has been very good to Dubuque. Since 2005 Dubuque has received
over $10 million in grants and local investment because of its pioneering sustainability efforts. IBM.
which is bringing an estimated 1.300 jobs to the city, cited Dubuque's sustainability vision as a major
factor setting it apart from other candidate cities. In more recent years, however, other communities
have begun to match or exceed Dubuque's sustainability efforts, making us less competitive for these
limited opportunities. Adopting the 50 °o by 2030 goal will bring Dubuque back to the forefront of
local sustainability If the past five years are any guide, being a sustainability leader could be worth
tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of jobs over the next twenty years.
In terms of jobs. Eagle Point Solar, Four Seasons Geothermal, 7th Power Sustainable, Durant,
IBM. Dittmer Recycling, Gronen Restoration, and many other local businesses are either partially or
exclusively focused on sustainability and GHG reduction. Such businesses will continue to locate and
succeed in Dubuque if we continue to demonstrate our dedication to progress and innovation.
Other GHG reduction options will also create jobs and boost local commerce. For instance, the
proposed Intermodal Transportation Facility is anticipated to create over 100 jobs and between $100
and $200 million in benefits over the next 30 years. Mixed -use neighborhoods and improved mobility
for all sectors of Dubuque's population can bring more people quickly and conveniently to shopping
destinations and workplaces, significantly enhancing local commerce and employment. Enhanced
local commerce enables employers to hire more workers. These are only a few examples of the
tremendous job creation potential of many GHG reduction initiatives.
Many of these strategies, such as the Dubuque UDC and infill development, will facilitate the
continued revitalization of downtown areas and significantly boost local commerce. The Port of
Dubuque and Historic Millwork District are two prominent local examples of infill development
responsible for attracting countless tourists, residents, and investment dollars into the community.
More generally, any money that Dubuque does not spend on fossil fuels is more likely to stay in
the local economy. Simply put. Dubuque does not have any fossil fuel resources to sell, so most of the
millions of dollars we spend on fossil fuels are sent out of the city and, for the most part, out of the
country. When energy dollars instead are spent on locally generated renewables, or when energy
efficiency allows consumers to keep more money in their pockets, that money is much more likely to
be spent locally and provide a sustained boost to Dubuque's economy.
Savings for Property Owners and Taxpayers
These types of savings will come mainly in the form of lower utility bills, reduced
transportation costs, and reduced costs of municipal government operations.
Numerous energy efficiency opportunities are discussed in the Built Emnronment section.
Efficiency can be simply defined as "achieving the same ends with lower costs." As such, the primary
benefits of energy efficiency are financial, yielding sustained savings on utility bills for local residents
and business owners. Basically, you do not have to pay for energy you do not use. Efficiency
improvements typically pay for themselves within a few short years and yield sustained and significant
savings over the long term.
Up front costs sometimes can be a barrier to efficiency investments, particularly to homeowners
and small businesses without a lot of spare capital. Fortunately, existing rebates and incentives help
minimize these initial costs, and other options, such as PACE style programs, offer win -win solutions
for property owners and municipalities. As one example of the impact of efficiency programs, the
partnership between 7th Power Sustainable and the Dubuque Community School District has achieved
11 °o energy reduction in the 2009 -10 school year compared to the previous two years, saving more
47
than $212,600. Energy consumption is expected to drop further to 25 to 30 °o reduction in the next
three to five years, which will save many hundreds of thousands per year in school operating costs.
Transportation comprises a significant share of household budgets, particularly for lower
income families. More efficient transportation networks, viable public transit and active transportation
(walking /biking) options, and unbundled parking are just a few of the options that can save Dubuque
residents money by facilitating fewer driving miles, less gridlock and congestion, and less need to pay
for as many vehicles (or any vehicles) as less expensive travel options continue to develop. The main
benefit of unbundled parking is financial by making parking costs explicit for property owners, which
allows property owners and renters to pay for only as much parking as they need. Also, parking lots
often occupy valuable space, so reducing parking demand can increase local commerce and revenue.
The full financial benefits of more a complete transportation network are difficult to predict, but
as an example from our neighboring state of Wisconsin, bicycling was responsible for $1.5 billion in
annual economic benefits to Wisconsin every year (Grabow et al. 2010), while every dollar invested in
public transit yielded $3.61 in benefits for a total of $726 million in benefits in 2004 alone (Wisconsin
DOT 2006).
Bringing the focus to taxpayers, many of the GHG reduction strategies outlined in this report
will significantly reduce local government operating costs. For instant the UDC and, to a greater
extent, infill development would focus on the development rather than expansion of the existing city
space. For the past several decades, much local growth in Dubuque has occurred in outlying areas (e.g.
new suburbs), requiring the costly expansion and maintenance of city infrastructure to those areas,
including streets, sewers, utilities, schools, emergency services, fire protection, and law enforcement.
Infill development, on the other hand, helps shift growth into established city boundaries. Less
infrastructure to build and maintain represents a significant savings to taxpayers.
Current annual operating costs at the water pollution control plant include $490,750 for
electricity and $262,500 for fuel oil for the incineration process. The conversion from incineration to
anaerobic digestion will mitigate the need for fuel oil, and generating on site energy from methane
could meet the facility's energy needs, thus reducing annual operating costs by up to $750,000. Fuel
and energy costs will no doubt continue to rise over the life of the plant (30+ years), so this renovation
will yield an ever - growing reduction in annual operating costs for the City. Similarly, energy generated
by methane capture at the DMASW-y landfill could generate nearly $1 million per year in sustained
revenue once the generator is built.
There are also economic benefits from renewable energy. Solar hot water heaters, ground
source heat pumps, and certain other renewable energy technologies can pay back upfront costs to
homeowners within a few short years and yield sustained savings thereafter. As energy prices continue
to rise, local businesses that take advantage of renewable energy PPAs will save an increasing amount
of money since energy from renewable PPAs is sold at a flat, contracted rate. In other words, they
know exactly how much their energy will cost, which allows businesses to take control of their energy
costs and remove uncertainty associated with increasing energy prices. The same basic idea applies to
homeowners as well when you purchase a renewable energy system, you know how much it costs,
how much energy you will get, and how long that system will last, providing you with control over
your long term energy costs.
Health Benefits
In general, health benefits are also economic benefits. Better health lowers health care costs,
increases worker productivity, and reduces absenteeism at schools and workplaces. The full economic
impact of these benefits is beyond the scope of this analysis. However, to provide a sense of how
significant these benefits can be, we cite a few numbers from a 2010 Green Dubuque report: The Costs
of Incomplete Streets in Dubuque.
48
Studies have shown that more complete transportation networks increase physical activity and
active transportation among residents. If complete streets induced just 1 in 40 current inactive
Dubuque residents to meet recommended activity levels, it could save nearly $1 million per year in
health care costs and lost work productivity. The air quality improvements from a mere 10 °o citywide
reduction in VMTs could be worth over $2 million per year. Reduced traffic collision rates could also
be worth hundreds of thousands per year. Altogether, complete streets alone could save Dubuque
residents millions annually in health related costs.
Again, these are only the estimated health benefits from a single GHG reduction (complete
streets). The full suite of benefits from all aspects of the plan will be far greater.
QUALITY OF LIFE BENEFITS
Quality of life benefits include many of the air quality, health, and fitness benefits already
described. Although we can portray those benefits in economic terms, we should not forget that those
dollars and cents represent real people whose health and quality of life is difficult to put a price tag on.
For instance, a more complete and efficient transportation system can save Dubuque residents money,
but it can also save residents valuable time that might otherwise be spent behind the wheel stuck in
traffic. More compact, mixed use neighborhoods will also minimize daily commute times,
significantly cutting down on the stress and time spent criss- crossing town.
A more complete suite of mobility options also represents a surprisingly significant impact for
groups that are traditionally poorly served by conventional transportation systems that favor single
passenger automobiles. In Dubuque alone:
1 7°0 of residents are aged 12 -15 and rely on others for their often extensive transportation needs
• 18°0 of residents are senior citizens, many of whom find driving an increasing inconvenience
• 17°0 of residents have a disability
• 12 °o belong to low income households (making less than 1.25 -times the poverty level), for
whom car ownership, operation, maintenance, and insurance can be significant financial
burdens on a limited budget
1 7°0 have no vehicles in their household
I Over 7°0 more belong to households with only one vehicle per two or more adults
In total, around 50 °o of Dubuque residents fall into at least one of those categories (the
individual percentages do not sum to 50 °o because many people belong to more than one category
50 °o accounts for that overlap). Notably, this figure does not include such groups as college students,
visitors, or people who would prefer not to drive if given the option.
Certainly not everyone among that 50 °o has trouble getting around, but many do, which
represents an enormous latent demand for safer, less expensive, and more convenient mobility options.
Our street system is a public resource explicitly intended to serve the entire population as best as
possible. The transportation options outlined in this plan could help extend mobility to that silent 50°0,
all while reaping the substantial economic benefits earlier described.
More subtle benefits of GHG reduction include the quality of indoor and outdoor environments.
For example, tree planting combined with better urban planning and development will increase green
space in Dubuque. In addition, the focus of LEED programs is not just restricted to energy efficiency,
but also includes indoor air quality and aesthetics in workplaces in other words, such things as fresher
air, more comfortable building temperatures, natural lighting, and other traits that enhance work
environments and improve the health, morale, and productivity of employees.
49
SUMMARY
GHG reduction may be the common thread tying this plan together, but it is by no means the
only or even main benefit of this plan. It is difficult to tally all of the benefits Dubuque could reap by
implementing a comprehensive GHG reduction plan that prioritizes "no- regret" solutions that are in the
community's interest regardless of any GHG reduction they entail. However, the health, economic, and
quality of life benefits Dubuque stands to gain are undeniable. This may almost sound too good to be
true, but these are real benefits and hard numbers that have been demonstrated again and again in
projects elsewhere and right here in Dubuque. The proposals and possibilities outlined in this report
certainly will not improve every aspect of life in Dubuque, but they will undoubtedly improve many
areas, particularly our health, economy, and quality of life.
50
Table 12 Examples of co- benefits of potential GHG mitigation strategies for the City of Dubuque and their relevance to Dubuque's 11 sustainability principles
Co- benefit
Economic Prosperity
Social /Cultural Vibrancy
Environmental & Ecological
Integr'ty
Regional
Economy
Smart
Energy
Use
Resource
Management
Community
Design
Green
Buildings
Healthy
Local
Food
Community
Knowledge
Reasonable
Mobility
Heathy
Air
Clean
Water
Native
Rants &
Animals
Local energy generation capacity
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Emphasis on local resources and
economy
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Energy and water use efficiency
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Fuel economy
x
x
x
x
x
x
Expanded transportation
infrastructure, including transit,
active transportation, & lower
congestion
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Enhanced City image for visitors,
students, businesses, and
potential residents
x
x
x
x
Early start on prospective national
GHG reduction requirements
x
x
x
x
x
Cleaner air, water, and soil
x
x
x
Reduced risk of climate induced
droughts, floods, & extreme
weather events
x
x
x
x
x
x
Development of healthy local
ecosystems and natural areas
x
x
x
x
Waste minimization, recycling,
and reuse
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Improved health and safety
x
x
x
x
x
Showcases Dubuque's
commitment to sustainability and
engagement with global issues
x
x
x
Provides sense of community
purpose and engagement
x
51
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APPENDIX A - CALCULATIONS AND
ASSUMPTIONS
BASELINE EMISSIONS TRENDS: 2010 -2030
Energy Demand Trends (electricity and natural gas)
According to a 2009 study by the Electric Power Research Institute, energy demand is expected
to increase by approximately 1.07% per year between 2010 and 2030 (EPRI 2009). This estimate
includes projected business -as -usual improvements in appliance, building, and power plant efficiency
but does not include any additional measures or policies such as federal climate policy or focused
energy efficiency programs. In order to model future GHG emissions in Dubuque, this 1.07% annual
increase was applied to electricity and natural gas consumption in Dubuque between 2009 and 2030.
Population was assumed to remain constant.
Electricity Emissions Factors
The Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) is a comprehensive EPA
database of electric power systems in the U.S. The eGRID database divides U.S. states into subregions
in order to calculate the carbon intensity of electricity (i.e. the amount of carbon released per unit of
energy produced), also known as an emission factor for each region. Iowa is contained in the upper -
Midwestern MROW subregion, which also includes western Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South
Dakota, Kansas, and a small portion of eastern Montana. Emissions factors are calculated by dividing
the power generated by power plants in each region by the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases
released by those power plants. The MROW region currently has one of the highest emissions factors
in the country due to its heavy reliance on coal and other fossil fuels, with coal providing over 80% of
the region's electricity.
Due to improvements in the efficiency of the electricity grid, increasing installation of
renewable energy, and decommissioning of old coal plants, the national carbon intensity of electricity is
widely expected to improve over the 21" century. Estimates of national improvements in carbon
intensity of electricity by 2030 range from up to 12 -16% using EIA data (EIA 2010) and 6.25 -37.5%
according to a 2003 study from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change (Pew 2003). So emissions
factors are clearly expected to decline over the next 20 years.
It is probable that the upper Midwest will be able to exceed these projections due to the
favorability of upper Midwestern states for wind energy and other renewables. Two recent U.S.
government studies have outlined strategies for procuring 20% of the nation's energy from wind by
2030 (US DOE 2008; NREL 2010). The Midwest would be well placed to produce a disproportionate
share of this energy. At the state level, several MROW states have announced ambitious goals for
renewable energy, including 50% in Iowa, 30% by 2020 for Excel Energy and 25% by 2025 for all
other providers in Minnesota, 25% by 2025 in Wisconsin (Governor's goal — current standard is 10%
by 2015), and 20% by 2020 in Kansas. North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska have not instated
official targets, though both Dakotas have goals of 10% by 2015. However, given wind installation
market trends and the fact that the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Kansas are ranked 1St, 4th, and 6th,
respectively, in wind energy among all U.S. states, it is highly likely that they will match or exceed the
ambitious plans of other MROW states.
For Dubuque specifically, the Dubuque Generating Station coal plant has an emissions factor
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approximately 60 °o higher than the rest of the grid (EPA Air Market 2010). In other words, it emits
60 °o more greenhouse gases per kWh than the grid average. Assuming that the majority of energy
from the Dubuque coal plant is used in the city, the emission factor for Dubuque's electricity will be
higher than the grid average. Dubuque's coal plant is one of the oldest plants in Iowa and has been
operating less and less in recent years. Assuming that these trends continue, electricity emission factors
in Dubuque will continue to improve simply because more of its energy will come from the general
grid.
Vehicle Emissions Trends
In all scenarios, a moderate vehicle turnover rate was assumed such that the average age of
vehicles on the road will be nine years. In order to simplify calculations, the average fuel efficiency of
vehicles on the road in each year was assumed to be the fleet average for new cars nine years earlier. It
was also assumed that emissions will improve at a similar rate for heavier duty road vehicles: the EPA
has begun the rule-making process to significantly improve fuel efficiency for heavy -duty vehicles
starting in model year 2014 (EPA 2010). Vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) were assumed to remain
constant for Dubuque between 2009 and 2030.
GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY
Most assumptions, emissions factors, and methods for the 2003. 2007, and 2009 inventory were
taken from ICLEI's LGOP 1.1. Additional notes and assumptions are below.
Emissions factors for 2003, 2007, and 2009 inventories
For the 2003. 2007, and 2009 inventories, the emission factor for the Dubuque Generating
Station (DGS) was 1.328E -03 tonnes CO2e /kWh and the emission factor for the MROW EGRID was
8.31E -04 tonnes CO2 /kWh in 2003 8.08E -04 tonnes CO2e /kWh in 2007, and 7.95E -04 tonnes
CO2e /kWh in 2009. The 2003 and 2007 values were derived directly from EPA estimates for our
region. The 2009 estimate assumed a modest (- 0.83 °0) annual improvement in emission factors, which
is significantly less than improvements that have actually occurred in recent years (PA Consulting
2009). In order to reflect the higher carbon intensity of the DGS, it was assumed that all power from
DGS was used in Dubuque and that any electricity use beyond what was generated at DGS was
generated by the grid. A weighted emission factor was thus calculated for each of 2003 (1.19E -03).
2007 (1.05E -03), and 2009 (9.04E -04).
Vehicle emissions
Trends in emission factors for automobiles between 2003 and 2007 were assumed to continue
until 2009.
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UNCERTAINTY
The majority of calculated reductions are based on well -known relationships between particular
actions, fossil fuel demand, and GHG emissions. The calculated reduction for each estimate represents
the mid- point, or most likely, reduction resulting from that action. The most likely' scenario was
based primarily on case studies from other communities, the amount of GHGs available to be reduced
in each sector of Dubuque (based on Dubuque's 2003. 2007, and 2009 inventories), and estimates from
industry and scientific studies on the fossil fuel mitigation /displacement of each action.
The approximate uncertainty of each calculation is detailed in Table Al, below. The most
uncertain reductions were assigned an order of magnitude (e.g. *100s or *1000s), and emission
reductions were conservatively assumed to be the lowest in this range (e.g. if an action was estimated
to reduce emissions by some 100s of tonnes per year, then we assumed 100 tonnes of reduction). Only
0.75°0 of emission reductions were calculated in this way, however, so although those particular actions
have a high uncertainty, they constitute a small share of total reductions. The vast majority of
reductions have estimates of "medium' certainty or better.
Also, please note that the uncertainty on these highly- uncertain reductions goes both ways, and
could be either substantially higher or lower than estimated. A range of estimates for each action can
be approximated based on these uncertainties.
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Table Al Relative uncertainty ofGHG reductionsresultingfrom each action In general, "very love' corresponds to ±10-
20%, "low" corresponds to ±20-30%,"m echum -loo' corresponds to 30 -40%, "medium" corresponds to ±40 -60%, high
corresponds to ±2 -3 -times current estimates, "very high" corresponds to ±10 -tunes current estimates These categories are
themselves very approximate, but provide context for the estimates
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Action
Uncertainty
Waste
WAWA methane capture CHP (onsrte power gen)
very km
DMASWA Methane flaring
very km
50% waste diversion
low
Food Scrap Marmon
10% Foodscrap diversion (with methane capture)
very low
10% Foodscrap diversion (no methane capture)
very low
80% Food scrap diversion (private hauler methane capture)
very low
80% Food scrap diversion (private hauler no methane capture)
very low
Irwnkerator diversion with 3'" turbine at WPCP
very low
Local Energy
Wood Waste OP
L40/ton wood
lax
$70/ton wood
low
Combined hkat and 8iocbar
$40/ton wood
medium
S70/ton wood
medium
Solar
medium
GSHPs
medium
Property tax incentives
very high
Second Nature,Watts Green
medium
Transportation
Complete Streets
medium
Bus system transformation
medium
Fuel buses
very low
efficient
Southwest Artenal
medium
Dubuque Smarter City ITS
medium
Dubuque Intempdal Transportation Facility
low- medium
Particle filters on City vehicles
low
Deoouple rents from panic
very high
Built Environment
ECIA Petal Project
medium
WPCP
Anaerobic digestion upgrade
very low
Methane capture
very low
7e Power SustainabilityiDubuque School Partnership
very low
IBM Smarter Qty
Pilot
low
Citywide
medium-high
IECC Standards
Residential
Commercial
medium
medium
US Green Building Comma LEED for existing buildings
high
PACE (or similar)
medium
StateiFederal programs
high
Dubuque UDC
high
Infill Development
high
al
s
5
City tree planting
very law
Cool roofsipavement program
low - medium
HFC/R-22 phaseout
km- medium
Misc community initiatives
medium
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APPENDIX B: GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Albedo — The reflectivity of a surface. High albedo surfaces are more "mirror- like" and tend to reflect
solar radiation without absorbing it; examples of high albedo surfaces include ice, snow, and other light
colored or shiny surfaces. Low albedo surfaces tend to be darker in color and absorb more solar
radiation, converting it to thermal or heat energy. Examples of low albedo surfaces include soot, dark -
shingled rooftops, blacktop, plants, and the ocean.
Biogenic — GHG emissions from a biological or organic source. For example, if burning wood waste
for energy, that burned wood waste will release the same amount of CO2 it absorbed during the lifetime
of the tree. As such, the wood waste produces no net emissions and is often considered to be carbon
neutral (see below). However, it is notable that certain bioenergy feedstocks, such as trees harvested
solely for bioenergy generation, take decades to regrow and reclaim the GHG emissions they released
when burned. This creates a temporary (up to 50 years or more) increase in atmospheric carbon
concentrations before new trees re- absorb that carbon (Manomet 2010). This temporary increase in
GHG concentrations can have significant impacts on climate change by pushing the climate beyond
certain thresholds (see tipping points, below) that cannot be undone, even when GHG are eventually
drawn back down by regrowing biological stocks.
Biomass - Any organic matter derived from plants. Examples include forest wood and wood waste,
switchgrass and other grassland perennial plants, and crop residuals.
Black carbon - Black carbon is essentially "soot" produced by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels
and biomass. The majority of black carbon emissions in the U.S. come from diesel engines used for
transportation and industrial use as well as wood burning stove and other unfiltered biomass burning.
Black carbon has been estimated to be the second largest contributor to climate change, second only to
CO2 (Ramanathan and Carmichael 2008). Black carbon has a direct warming effect by absorbing solar
radiation and converting it to heat in the atmosphere, as well as an indirect warming effect by
decreasing the albedo of snow and ice.
Carbon intensity — The amount of CO2 emitted during the production of a unit of energy. For
instance, a particular coal plant may emit 2 lbs of CO2 per kWh of electricity; 2lbs/kWh would be the
carbon intensity of electricity from that particular plant. This is equivalent to an emissions factor.
Carbon negative — A process that results in a net decrease in atmospheric GHGs. In other words, a
process that removes more carbon from the atmosphere than it puts into the atmosphere.
Carbon neutral — Any energy source or process that absorbs or sequesters the same amount of carbon
it releases, yielding no net increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations.
Carbon sequestration — Uptake and storage of carbon. For instance, planting a tree sequesters the
carbon comprising its wood and other tissues. Depending on conditions, soils, oceans, and plants can
act as carbon sources or carbon sinks
Carbon sink — A system that sequesters more carbon than it emits. For instance, prairies act as carbon
sinks by sequestering carbon in the soil by producing extensive root systems year after year. If that
prairie is plowed and converted to agricultural land, it will often become a carbon sink as the carbon
accumulated underground is exposed to the surface, broken down, and emitted to the atmosphere.
Oceans, forests, and other natural ecosystems are significant carbon sinks.
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CO,e - The amount of CO2 that would cause the same amount of warming as a given amount of
another greenhouse gas. For example. each molecule of methane (CH4) causes 21 -times more warming
than 1 molecule of CO2. so 1 tonne of CH4 is equal to 21 tonnes CO2e.
ECIA — East Central Intergovernmental Association, an organization of local governmental bodies in
Cedar. Clinton. Delaware. Dubuque and Jackson Counties. Provides an advisory and administrative
role for local member governments on a wide range of issues.
Embodied Energy — The energy required to make any product. bring it to market, and dispose of it.
Emission factor - The amount of CO2 emitted during the production of a unit of energy. See carbon
intensity.
EPA — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Fossil fuel — Geological deposits of carbon formed by the burial and decomposition of ancient
organisms. including plants. phytoplakton. and zooplankton. So fossil fuels are literally made of
decomposed fossils. The age of organisms and resulting fossil fuels ranges from tens- to hundreds -of-
millions of years. Fossil fuels includes coal, oil, and natural gas.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) — A gas that absorbs and traps heat in the atmosphere. The principle
anthropogenic (human generated) greenhouse gases are CO2. CH4, and N2O.
IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. From the IPCC website "[the IPCC] reviews
and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio- econonuc information produced worldwide
relevant to the understanding of climate change" The IPCC convenes approximately twice per decade
to assess the scientific literature underpinning climate science and produce synthesis reports reflecting
this body of knowledge. Working strictly on a voluntary basis, hundreds of leading scientists from
across the world prepare the report. and thousands more scientists review their work. The IPCC
produced synthesis reports in 1990. 1995. 2001, and 2007. The next report is scheduled for 2014.
PPM — Parts per million. For instance, if 1 cup of oil is mixed with 999.999 cups of water, the
resulting solution will have an oil concentration of 1 part per million (ppm).
Tipping point - A threshold beyond which further changes trigger abrupt and often irreversible
consequences for human or natural systems. In other words, once a certain climatic threshold is
reached, rapid changes occur that are unlikely or impossible to be reversed. For instance, pushing
temperatures beyond certain limits can cause species to become extinct. The cascading effects of
losing a keystone species can degrade an entire ecosystem and the services it provides: this is
effectively irreversible since the species in question no longer exists.
USGCRP — U.S. Global Change Research Program. USGCRP provides "a comprehensive and
integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand.
assess. predict. and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."
VMT — Vehicle miles traveled. The number of miles traveled by a given vehicle or set of vehicles.
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APPENDIX C. EMISSIONS BUDGETS AND
REDUCTION TARGETS
Historically, GHG emissions targets have been framed in terms of percentage cuts by a certain
date (e.g. 7% below 1990 levels by 2012, as with the Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement). Other
targets have identified a desirable atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (e.g. 350 ppm or 450
ppm). In either case, the ultimate objective has been to limit global average temperature increase to an
acceptable level. 2 °C was recently endorsed by the Copenhagen Climate Summit as an ambitious yet
feasible target that is moderately likely to prevent the worst -case climate change scenarios.
Targets based on percent decreases or specific atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been
important early attempts to organise climate mitigation around tangible, quantifiable goals. However,
both types of targets do not address the most accurate predictor of the degree of global warming, which
is the total cumulative quantity of greenhouse gases that enters the atmosphere over time. For instance,
a target of a certain percentage reduction by a certain date could allow greenhouse gas emissions to rise
over the coming decades before reducing emissions rapidly before the target date. This would result in
substantially higher total emissions, and hence a greater risk of dangerous climate change, than a policy
that encouraged early and steady reductions toward the same target.
An alternative approach that more directly addresses cumulative greenhouse gas emissions is
the concept of emissions budgeting. An emissions budget identifies the total amount of greenhouse
gases that can be emitted over a given time period before a certain amount of warming occurs. Oxford
University scientists have found that to have a 75% chance of preventing a temperature increase of
more than 2 °C above pre - industrial levels, emissions between 2000 and 2050 must be limited to 1000
gigatonnes, with releases of other greenhouse gases restricted in proportion (Meinenhausen et al. 2009).
This has essentially established a carbon budget for humanity for the next 40 years.
As discussed above, emissions are cumulative over time, and cumulative emissions determine
atmospheric GHG concentrations. As such, reductions in emissions are also cumulative over time,
because permanent, systemic emission reductions prevent emissions not only at the time the reductions
occur, but also in all subsequent years. For instance, removing a car from the road will prevent the
emissions that car would have produced in every subsequent year, not just the year in which it was
removed from the road.
This again highlights the importance of early action. Given that a carbon budget has been
established for the next 40 years, it makes sense to identify and pursue opportunities for savings as
early as possible. Any action taken today will have a greater impact on climate change than that same
action taken 10 years in the future. Early action therefore is not only more effective at preventing
climate change, but reduces the number of future actions necessary to mitigate climate change.
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APPENDIX D. COMMUNITY WORKSHOP
SUMMARY - 06/02/11
On June 2nd, 2011 50% by 2030 held a community workshop at the Multicultural Family
Center in Dubuque in order to discuss the initiative and gather input for presentation to the Dubuque
City Council. The following is a summary of the major points of discussion.
ENGAGE WITH LOCAL BUSINESSES
Several attendees made suggestions related to engaging with local businesses. One possibility
is to work with the Sustainable Innovations Consortium (a local group of companies, representing over
1,100 local employees) to bring businesses into the initiative. Businesses often view greenhouse gas
reduction in terms of regulation and expense, but 50% by 2030 is explicitly an effort to reduce
emissions without regulations. Instead, the reduction options outlined in the plan are voluntary, win -
win solutions that are intended to put businesses at a competitive financial advantage while
simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, energy efficiency and renewable
energy systems can reduce energy costs for many businesses. Also, Dubuque has received $10+
million in sustainability related grants over the past 5 years - -those development dollars provide an
important stimulus to the economy, benefiting everyone from renewable energy firms, to lighting and
supply businesses, to construction companies, among many others.
Another benefit of engaging local businesses is finding out first hand what the limiting factors
are for businesses in implementing potential greenhouse gas reduction strategies. By working together,
we can find innovative ways to overcome those hurdles (see, for instance, Renewable Energy
Financing, below).
RENEWABLE ENERGY FINANCING
Another suggestion was to facilitate financing for renewable energy and energy efficiency
installations for homes and businesses. Renewable energy systems and efficiency improvements can
pay for themselves (and then some) within a few years, and afterwards lead to significant savings on
energy costs. However, despite the excellent long -term financial prospects, the up -front cost is often
still a barrier. A reliable source of financing for these projects could significantly boost demand for
energy efficiency and renewables in Dubuque, yielding significant cost savings for businesses and
homeowners with the added bonus of minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.
Working with financial institutions to facilitate low interest loans for such projects could be one
way for the community to achieve this, and there was wide agreement at the workshop that this would
be a positive step.
AIR QUALITY
There were several comments related to open burning. Open burning is regulated in Dubuque
(City Code Section 6 -9 -2: BURNING RESTRICTIONS and Section 6 -9 -3: BLASTING,
FIREWORKS AND OPEN BURNING), but attendees indicated that many people seem unaware of the
ordinances and the health impacts related to open burning. Biomass burning is a major source of
particulate matter and other health hazards, and it contributes to climate change through black carbon
emissions. Although it might be hard to quantify local reductions in biomass burning, efforts to reduce
61
burning could still yield significant benefits for local health and climate related pollution -- another
win -win. This discussion provided an excellent example of why we should not limit ourselves to
actions whose impact we can precisely quantify.
Concerns were also expressed about the air quality impacts of a biomass -to- energy facility,
which is one of the reduction options discussed in this report. This part of the discussion provided an
excellent example of the kind of factors that will have to be fully considered when the greenhouse gas
reduction planning process formally begins. To be clear, the current reduction plan was written solely
to support the feasibility of the 50 °o by 2030 target. We hope that many of the reduction strategies
herein will inform the actual planning process, however.
THE STATE LEVEL
The City of Dubuque can support state and regional level initiatives that complement the work
being done in Dubuque and elsewhere in Iowa. A few specific state -level groups and policies were
mentioned, including SF 516 (a bill providing $10 million in tax credits toward solar and wind
installation), and HF 436 (a bill to facilitate energy efficiency in cities and counties). Bills and
programs like this will be important to Dubuque's long term success.
Other state -level programs mentioned include iowaclimateadvocates.org, which seeks to
influence greenhouse emissions at the national level, focusing particularly on presidential candidates
campaigning in our state.
STRATEGIC SUGGESTIONS
a Request a specific vote date from City Council- -many attendees thought that the August Council
meeting would be an ideal time. It is easy to lose momentum, so the sooner we set a goal, the
sooner we can start the work of meeting that goal and reaping the local co- benefits of doing so.
a Cooperate with the University of Iowa student group that is working with the City of Dubuque,
specifically during the greenhouse gas reduction planning process. As background, the U of I is
sending a group of graduate students, who will collaborate with local college students to help
develop metrics for measuring sustainability in Dubuque. One of the goals of the program is to
develop a renewable energy asset map, allowing Dubuque to track the use and potential sites and
opportunities for geothermal, biomass, solar, and wind. Quantifying potential greenhouse gas
reductions could also potentially be part of the initiative.
WORKSHOP ATTENDEES
Jade Angelica
Carla Crahan
Pat Crahan
Eldon Giannakouros
Eleni Giannakouros
Raki Giannakouros
Zach Hermsen
Chuck Isenhart
Scott McGuire
David Mueller
Tim Mueller
62
Sean Owens
Jason Schatz
Paul Schultz
Lisa Wiederholt
Charlie Wintenvood
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Contact the Authors
Jason Schatz jasonragreendubuque.org
Raki Giannakouros rakiragreendubuque.org
64