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Green Dubuque Community Climate Action Plan ProposalCONSULTING AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE CITY OF DUBUQUE, IOWA AND GREEN DUBUQUE, INC. This Consulting Agreement (the "Agreement "), dated for reference purposes this L.Li day of , 2012, is by and between the City of Dubuque, Iowa ( "City "), a municipal cor oration and Green Dubuque, Inc. ( "Consultant "). WHEREAS, City is in need of professional and technical services, including data collection and analysis, outreach and education related to community greenhouse gas emissions; and WHEREAS, Consultant represents it is duly qualified and willing to perform such professional and technical services set forth in this contract. NOW THEREFORE, it is agreed by and between the parties hereto as follows: SECTION 1. SCOPE OF CONSULTANT'S SERVICES. 1.1 Data Collection & Analysis. Consultant will perform the following data collection and analysis for City in a timely and satisfactory manner: 1) Consultant will collect and analyze data for the time period beginning on May 7, 2012 and ending on October 1, 2012. 2) Consultant will provide a written summary of community greenhouse gas ( "GHG ") emissions for calendar years 2010 and 2011. Consultant will compare and analyze GHG trends in light of national and local trends, and compare 2010 data to census data to determine correlations. 3) Consultant will provide analysis of barriers, gaps and market opportunities and consult with other groups and individuals collecting similar data, including but not limited to the University of Iowa. 1.2 Outreach. Consultant will implement an outreach program which runs from June 15, 2012 to October 1, 2012 consisting of the following: 1) Consultant will provide possible GHG reduction opportunities and build a comprehensive list of potential strategies for local climate action, which will include ongoing and prospective actions and serve as a foundation for routine future updates by City. Each strategy will include a description, anticipated annual impact on GHG emissions, affected sectors, timetable, anticipated costs and benefits, and barriers to implementation. 040312maq 2) Consultant will design a business survey and administer such survey to selected businesses with assistance from City and private sector partners. 3) Consultant will interview City Council and key City employees selected by City. 4) Consultant will solicit public input through the internet, public meetings and grassroots efforts and provide progress updates to the public via the internet and educational materials. City and Consultant will establish the timing and schedule of such public relations efforts. 1.3 Technical Support. Consultant will provide the following technical support for the period from June 15, 2012 to October 1, 2012: 1) Consultant will provide technical assistance and analysis regarding content and interpretation of written summary to City, including but not limited to grant writing, budgeting, and performance indicators assistance not to exceed 20 hours. 2) Consultant will provide a comprehensive report on GHG emissions, source data, and introductory training to City such that this report can be referenced and updated in the future. 3) At City's request, Consultant must attend City Council meetings related to the work set forth in this Agreement. Such requests must be made with reasonable notice to allow for Consultant's attendance. 1.4 Final Report Preparation and Presentation. Consultant must prepare and present one (1) mid -point and one (1) final presentation to City Council. The mid -point presentation must be reviewed by City and presented to City Council by August 31, 2012. The final presentation must be reviewed by City and presented to City Council by October 1, 2012. Consultant will meet periodically with City to ensure that progress and presentations are progressing adequately. SECTION 2. CITY'S RESPONSIBILITY. City, to the extent permitted by law, will provide to Consultant all records, files and information needed for the project upon Consultant's reasonable request. Upon Consultant's request, City will assist Consultant in gathering data from other partners as needed to complete a thorough analysis. SECTION 3. TERM OF AGREEMENT. Consultant will begin work on this project on June 15, 2012 and must complete all phases of the Project by October 31, 2012 (the "Term "). SECTION 4. TERMINATION. 2 4.1 City may terminate this Agreement for any reason, with or without cause, upon seven (7) calendar days' written notice to Consultant. If City terminates this Agreement prior to completion of the Scope of Services, Consultant will be paid for all work and services performed up to the time of termination. However, such sums shall not be greater than the maximum provided in Section 7. 4.2 Upon termination of this Agreement, Consultant must furnish copies of all notes and sketches, charts, computations, and any other data prepared or obtained by Consultant pursuant to this Agreement without cost, and without restriction or limitation. Consultant will not be liable for City's use of such documents on other projects. SECTION 5. INSURANCE AND INDEMNIFICATION. 5.1 During the Term of this Agreement, Consultant must maintain insurance as set forth in the attached Insurance Schedule A. Consultant must present a certificate of insurance to City prior to beginning work on this project. 5.2 Consultant will indemnify and hold harmless City, its officers, agents and employees, from and against all claims, damages, losses and expenses, including but not limited to attorneys' fees, arising out of or resulting from performance of the Agreement to the extent caused in whole or in part by actions, negligent acts or omissions of Consultant, Consultant's subcontractor, or anyone directly or indirectly employed by Consultant, Consultant's subcontractor or anyone for whose acts Consultant or Consultant's subcontractor may be liable, regardless of whether or not such claim, damage, loss or expense is caused in part by a party indemnified hereunder. SECTION 6. CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION. All business, technical, creative and financial information Consultant learns or obtains in connection with this Agreement and services performed hereunder that is related to City or that is received by or for City in confidence, constitutes "Confidential Information." Consultant will hold in confidence and, except in performing services for City, not disclose or allow such Confidential Information to be disclosed. Consultant will not at any time during the term of this Agreement or any time thereafter divulge Confidential Information in any manner to any person other than Consultant's employees or agents with a legitimate need to know in order to perform services for City. Consultant's employees and agents have no expectation of privacy with respect to City's telecommunications, networking or information processing systems and any activity, files or messages on or use of those systems may be monitored at any time. Confidential Information does not include any information that: i) is or becomes within the public domain through no act of Consultant; ii) was in the possession of Consultant prior to its disclosure under this Agreement as shown by written records; iii) is independently developed by Consultant without reference to any Confidential Information; iv) is received from a source other than City or its affiliates, employees, agents, subcontractors or consultants without any restriction on its use or disclosure, as shown by written record; or v) is required by law to be disclosed in the written opinion of Consultant's legal counsel. 3 SECTION 7. COMPENSATION FOR SERVICES. Consultant will be paid consideration in the amount of twenty -eight thousand five hundred dollars ($28,500) for all services performed pursuant to this Agreement. Additionally, Consultant will be reimbursed for incidental items including but not limited to meeting materials, printing and supply costs actually and necessarily incurred by Consultant in the performance of this Agreement in an amount not to exceed one thousand dollars ($1,000). All compensation and reimbursement will be paid in a timely manner. However, failure of Consultant to satisfactorily perform in accordance with this Agreement will constitute grounds for City to withhold payment in an amount determined by City to be sufficient to properly complete the project in accordance with this Agreement. SECTION 8. FORCE MAJURE. A party's performance under this Agreement shall be excused if, and to the extent that, the party is unable to perform because of actions due to causes beyond its reasonable control such as, but not limited to, acts of God, the acts of civil or military authority, Toss of potable water source, floods, quarantine restrictions, riots, strikes, commercial impossibility, fires, circumstances reasonably beyond the control of the party obligated to perform, whether such other causes are related or unrelated, similar or dissimilar, to any of the foregoing. In the event of any such force majeure, the party unable to perform shall promptly notify the other party of the existence of such force majeure and shall be required to resume performance of its obligations under this Agreement upon the termination of the aforementioned force majeure. SECTION 9. NOTICE. All notices and correspondence related to this Agreement must be sent to the following: Consultant: City: Jason Schatz President Green Dubuque, Inc. 1640 Lawndale Dubuque IA 52001 Michael C. Van Milligen City Manager 50 West 13th Street Dubuque, IA 52001 -4845 Cori Burbach Sustainability Community Coordinator 50 West 13th Street Dubuque, IA 52001 -4845 SECTION 10. MISCELLANEOUS. 4 10.1 Consultant must not discharge or refuse to hire any individual because of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, age, marital status, gender identity, or sexual orientation. Consultant must not discriminate against any individual in terms, conditions, or privileges of employment because of race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability, age, marital status, gender identity, or sexual orientation. Consultant must prohibit any contractors or subcontractors hired by Consultant in connection with this Agreement from committing any of the discriminatory employment practices described herein. 10.2 This Agreement shall be binding upon the successors and assigns of the parties and may not be assigned without the written consent of both parties. 10.3 Consultant must comply with all applicable state, federal, and local laws or ordinances in the performance of this Agreement. 10.4 If any part of this Agreement is found invalid, the remaining parts of this Agreement will be deemed valid and severable and shall continue in full force and effect. 10.5 Consultant acknowledges that Iowa Code §362.5 prohibits a City officer or employee from having an interest in a contract with City, and certifies that no employee or officer of City, which includes members of the City Council and City boards and commissions, has or will have a prohibited interest, directly or indirectly, in this Agreement. 10.6 This Agreement is governed by the laws of the State of Iowa and venue for any action with respect to this Agreement will be in Dubuque County, Iowa. CITY OF DUBUQUE, IOWA GREEN DUBUQUE, INC. By: Michael C. Van Milligen, City Manager 5 By: ason Schatz, Presider 1. Insurance Schedule A shall furnish a signed Certificate of Insurance to the City of Dubuque, Iowa for the coverage required in Exhibit I prior to contract inception and at the end of the contract if the term of contract is longer than 60 days. Each Certificate shall be prepared on the most current ACORD form approved by the Iowa Department of Insurance or an equivalent. 2. All policies of insurance required hereunder shall be with a carrier authorized to do business in Iowa and all carriers shall have a rating of A or better in the current A.M. Best's Rating Guide. 3. Each Certificate shall be furnished to the contracting department of the City of Dubuque. 4. Failure to provide minimum coverage shall not be deemed a waiver of these requirements by the City of Dubuque. Failure to obtain or maintain the required insurance shall be considered a material breach of this agreement. 5. All required endorsements to various policies shall be attached to Certificate of insurance. 6. Whenever a specific ISO form is listed, an equivalent form may be substituted subject to the provider identifying and listing in writing all deviations and exclusions that differ from the ISO form. 7. Provider shall be required to carry the minimum coverage /limits, or greater if required by law or other legal agreement, in Exhibit I. Insurance Schedule A (continued) Exhibit 1 A) COMMERCIAL GENERAL LIABILITY General Aggregate Limit $2,000,000 Products - Completed Operations Aggregate Limit $1,000,000 Personal and Advertising Injury Limit $1,000,000 Each Occurrence $1,000,000 Fire Damage Limit (any one occurrence) $ 50,000 Medical Payments $ 5,000 a) Coverage shall be written on an occurrence, not claims made, form. All deviations from the standard ISO commercial general liability form CG 0001, or Business owners form BP 0002, shall be clearly identified. b) Include ISO endorsement form CG 25 04 "Designated Location(s) General Aggregate Limit." c) Include endorsement indicating that coverage is primary and non - contributory. d) Include endorsement to preserve Governmental Immunity. (Sample attached). e) Include additional insured endorsement for: The City of Dubuque, including all its elected and appointed officials, all its employees and volunteers, all its boards, commissions and /or authorities and their board members, employees and volunteers. using ISO form CG 2026. B) WORKERS' COMPENSATION & EMPLOYERS LIABILITY Coverage A Coverage B Statutory —State of Iowa Employers Liability Each Accident $100,000 Each Employee- Disease $100,000 Policy Limit - Disease $500,000 a) Policy shall include an endorsement providing a waiver of subrogation to the City of Dubuque. 7 Preservation of Governmental Immunities Endorsement 1. Nonwaiver of Governmental Immunity. The insurance carrier expressly agrees and states that the purchase of this policy and the including of the City of Dubuque, Iowa as an Additional Insured does not waive any of the defenses of governmental immunity available to the City of Dubuque, Iowa under Code of Iowa Section 670.4 as it is now exists and as it may be amended from time to time. 2. Claims Coverage. The insurance carrier further agrees that this policy of insurance shall cover only those claims not subject to the defense of governmental immunity under the Code of Iowa Section 670.4 as it now exists and as it may be amended from time to time. Those claims not subject to Code of Iowa Section 670.4 shall be covered by the terms and conditions of this insurance policy. 3. Assertion of Government Immunity. The City of Dubuque, Iowa shall be responsible for asserting any defense of governmental immunity, and may do so at any time and shall do so upon the timely written request of the insurance carrier. 4. Non - Denial of Coverage. The insurance carrier shall not deny coverage under this policy and the insurance carrier shall not deny any of the rights and benefits accruing to the City of Dubuque, Iowa under this policy for reasons of governmental immunity unless and until a court of competent jurisdiction has ruled in favor of the defense(s) of governmental immunity asserted by the City of Dubuque, Iowa. No Other Change in Policy. The above preservation of governmental immunities shall not otherwise change or alter the coverage available under the policy. SPECIMEN 8 Masterpiece on the Mississippi Dubuque bierd All-America City 1 2007 TO: The Honorable Mayor and City Council Members FROM: Michael C. Van Milligen, City Manager SUBJECT: Community Climate Action Plan Proposal From Green Dubuque DATE: January 23, 2012 In March of 2010, the Dubuque Community Greenhouse Gas Reduction Task Force was assembled by Green Dubuque, Inc. in response to the completion of the 2003 and 2007 community greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. The GHG Reduction Task Force is a partnership of local environmental nonprofits, faith based organizations, private sector green business, and individual activists with the designated purpose of recommending a GHG reduction target and feasible implementation strategy to the Dubuque City Council. Green Dubuque is a 501(c)3 non - profit organization. In July 2011, Council held a work session and later approved the target of reducing greenhouse gases 50% by 2030. In July and November 2010, the City Council held work sessions to review a municipal greenhouse gas inventory completed by Raki Giannakouros during his internship with the City. The Council expressed interest in using this baseline data as a starting point to complete the ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability Five Milestone process: 1. Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts. 2. Adopt an emissions reduction target. 3. Develop a local climate action plan. 4. Implement policies and measures. 5. Monitor and verify results. In order to achieve the Five Milestone process, these steps must be completed for a community -wide inventory and plan. At the October 17, 2011 Council meeting, Council referred a letter from Green Dubuque to the City Manager for additional discussion. The letter included a proposal to complete Phase 11 of a community Climate Action Plan, including data analysis and community engagement services facilitated by Green Dubuque. A copy of the original letter and Phase 1 report are attached. Sustainable Community Coordinator Cori Burbach and I met with Green Dubuque, Inc. President Jason Schatz and Green Dubuque, Inc. Vice President Raki Giannakouros to discuss Council's recommendations. Green Dubuque has submitted the attached amended proposal based on those recommendations and additional discussions with staff. Completion of a community Climate Action plan is an integral piece of moving towards the Sustainable Dubuque vision. Council has adopted a target of reducing greenhouse gases produced by the community 50% by 2030 and adopted a Clean Air Attainment strategy as one of their Top Priorities for 2011 -2012. Partnering with other business and non - profit partners to continue the work begun by Green Dubuque, Inc. and the Dubuque Community Greenhouse Gas Reduction Task Force is integral to achieving those goals. Additionally, greenhouse gas measurement and management will be key indicators as the City works with the University of Iowa and other partners to establish performance indicators for all eleven Sustainable Dubuque principles. The $28,500 contract with Green Dubuque would fulfill a one -time need, similar to the one -time contract with Durant Architects to facilitate the Sustainable Dubuque Task Force planning process in 2007. Urban Sustainability Directors Network members reported paying from $75,000 to $200,000 to a consultant for similar deliverables. As the City initiates new sustainability projects related to the recommendations in this report and establishes systems to better track and analyze data, it is anticipated that funding may be requested to increase staff capacity related to this and other work. These requests would not be related to Green Dubuque's proposal. Excess revenue in the Solid Waste activity has been identified to fund the Green Dubuque proposal. Sustainable Community Coordinator Cori Burbach is recommending staff be authorized to negotiate and execute a contract with Green Dubuque, Inc., as outlined in their proposal. I concur with the recommendation and respectfully request Mayor and City Council approve. Michael C. Van Milligen MCVM:sv Attachment cc: Barry Lindahl, City Attorney Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager Cori Burbach, Sustainable Community Coordinator 2 Masterpiece on the Mississippi TO Mike Van Milligen, City Manager FROM Cori Burbach, Sustainable Community Coordinator DATE December9,2011 SUBJECT Community Climate Action Plan Proposal From Green Dubuque Dubuque had NI- America City 'I 1 1 I' 2007 INTROD UCTION The purpose of this memorandum is to present a letterfrom Green Dubuque that includes a proposal updated from their October 6, 2011 proposal to complete a community Climate Action Plan for Dubuque Green Dubuque is requesting that the City Council approve staff working with them to develop a contract in which Green Dubuque would provide the City with a Climate Action Plan for a fee of $28,500 BACKGROUND Green Dubuque is a registered 501(c) 3 non - profit organization committed to improving and beautifying Dubuque by reducing the city's greenhouse gas emissions, promoting smart development and urban green space, and protecting the heakh and integrity of local ecosystems They provide resources for those who wish to stay informed about global environmental issues as well as opportunities for responsible citizens to get involved in local environmental and city improvement projects Since 2006, Green Dubuque has led or been involved in numerous projects to support the Sustainable Dubuque vision, including organizing grassroots events, research and reporting on a variety of sustainability and climate change - related topics, lobbying for local and state government activity, community education and supporting local foods initiatives in a variety of ways In March of 2010, the Dubuque Community Greenhouse Gas Reduction Task Force was assembled by Green Dubuque in response to the completion of the 2003 and 2007 community greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories The GHG Reduction Task Force is a partnership of local environmental nonprofits, faith based organizations, private sector green business, and individual activists with the designated purpose of recommending a GHG reduction target and feasible implementation strategy to the Dubuque City Council In July, Council held a work session and later approved the target of reducing greenhouse gases 50% by 2030 In July and November 2010, the City Council held work sessions to review a municipal greenhouse gas inventory completed by Raki Giannakouros during his internship with the City The Council expressed interest in using this baseline data as a starting point to complete the ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability Five Milestone process 1 Conduct baseline emissions inventories and forecasts 2 Adopt an emissions reduction target 3 Develop a local climate action plan 4 Implement policies and measures 5 Monitor and verify results In order to achieve the Five Milestone process, these steps must be completed for a community -wide inventory and plan At the October 17,2011 Council meeting, Council referred a letter from Green Dubuque to the City Manager for additional discussion The letter included a proposal to complete Phase 11 of a community Climate Action Plan, including data analysis and community engagement services facilitated by Green Dubuque A copy of the original letter and Phase I report are attached DISCUSSION The City Manager and myself met with President Jason Schatz and Vice- President Raki Giannakouros to discuss Council's recommendations Green Dubuque has submitted the attached amended proposal based on those recommendations and additional discussions with staff Completion of a community Climate Action plan is an integral piece of moving towards the Sustainable Dubuque vision Council has adopted a target of reducing greenhouse gases produced by the community 50% by 2030 and adopted a Clean Air Attainment strategy as one of their Top Priorities for 2011 -2012 Partnering with other business and non - profit partners to continue the work begun by Green Dubuque and the Dubuque Community Greenhouse Gas Reduction Task Force is integral to achieving those goals Additionally, greenhouse gas measurement and management will be key indicators as the City works with the University of Iowa and other partners to establish performance indicators for all eleven Sustainable Dubuque principles City staff have met to discuss how this project supports existing Sustainable Dubuque projects, such as Smarter Sustainable Dubuque, the Sustainable Dubuque Indicators partnership with the University of Iowa planning students, and the goals of greenhouse gas education and reduction identified in the EPA Climate Showcase Communities grant Urban Sustainability Directors Network members reported paying from $75,000 to $200,000 to a consultant for similar deliverables The contract with Green Dubuque would fulfill a one -time need, similar to the one -time contract with Durant Architects to facilitate the Sustainable Dubuque Task Force planning process in 2007 As the City initiates new sustainability projects related to the recommendations in this report and establishes systems to better track and analyze data, it is anticipated that funding may be requested to increase staff capacity related to this and other work These requests would not be related to Green Dubuque's proposal PROJECT COST - BUDGET IMPACT Excess revenue in the Solid Waste activity has been identified to fund the Green Dubuque proposal The revenue available from this funding source relates to the goals of the Climate Action Planning process and is a logical source for the project Green Dubuque's action plan meshes closely with the promised deliverables in the EPA Climate Showcase Communities grant, which the City received in 2011 Additional funding to complete outreach around the joint goal of greenhouse gas reduction would be available through that grant in FY2013 ACTION TO BE TAKEN Staff respectfully request Council approval to negotiate a contract with Green Dubuque based on the attached proposal in the amount of $28,500 cc Jason Schatz, President, Green Dubuque Raki Giannakouros, Vice - President, Green Dubuque Cindy Steinhauser, Assistant City Manager Paul Schultz, Resource Management Coordinator Jennifer Larson, Budget Director Don Vogt, Public Works Director October 20, 2011 Dear N Iayor Buol and the Dubuque City Council, Thank you for your leadership in building a more sustainable Dubuque Recognizing the Council's strong support in adopting the 50°0 by 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target, listing 'clean air attainment' as a top priority, and identifying a 'community greenhouse gas reduction plan' as important, Green Dubuque stands ready to help the City to be successful in attaining it's goals Green Dubuque is unequivocally situated to assist the City in identifying specific actions and tasks to achieve the goal, and to that end is requesting funding for Phase II of the 50°0 by 2031) process in the amount of $28,51010 Green Dubuque is proud of our work to advance the Mayor, Council's and community's Sustainable Dubuque vision For the past four years, Green Dubuque has been deeply involved in almost all sustainability pathways including climate action, air and water quality, social equity, transportation and mobility, food systems, and waste minimization, among many others A selection of these efforts includes Eco Literacy • 50° o by 2030 speaker series, website, and public workshops • Moderators at the 2010 Growing Sustainable Communities Conference • Dubuque Sustainable Task Force — Member • Facilitated monthly Green Drinks meeting • Loras College Environmental Ethics Class -- Annual guest lecturer • Organized Moving Planet clean energy event in September 21)11 Clean Air A Authored community and municipal Greenhouse Gas and Criteria Air Pollutants Inventories (2003, 2007) A Organized 50° o by 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Campaign A Advocated and facilitated initiation of methane management at the DIv1AS \VA landfill Reasonable Mobility Social Equity A Authored analysis of impact of Complete Streets in Dubuque A Conducted Dubuque City Staff training in Complete Streets impacts and principles A Helped draft DMATS and City of Dubuque Complete Streets policies A Annual promotion of Bike to Work Week Smart Resource Use A Advocated extension of curbside food scrap collection through winter months A Facilitated discussion with IDNR regarding expansion of DIVIASWA food scrap composting program A Advocated co- generation at WPCP A Participated in the Waste Diversion Options Study Roadmap Water Quality • IOWATER volunteers A Recruited participation in ram garden and ram barrel community pilots A Storm dram labeling -- "Drains to River'2 years Local Food A Promotion of local food options, including CSAs, Farmers Markets, and other options on greendubuque org website • Steering committee of Dubuque Food Co -op • Treasury for Dubuque CSA group Overview of 50% by 2030 Phase II Phase II of 50°0 by 2030, which is proposed to run from 1/1/12 - 9/1/12, will provide the Dubuque community with key tools for achieving the 50°0 by 2031) target The focus of the initiative will be identifying and quantifying greenhouse gas reduction opportunities that will also enhance the economic, social /cultural, and environmental foundation of Dubuque's sustamability The project will increase local understanding of Dubuque's greenhouse gas emission trends in light of national trends and local sustainable activities and new projects During this process, Green Dubuque will consult and engage extensively with local businesses, experts, and stakeholders to identify greenhouse gas reduction opportunities, barriers to implementation, and effective strategies to overcome those barriers, including grant opportunities and financing Phase II of 50°0 by 2030 will significantly advance several of the City's ongoing goals, including developing sustamability metrics and procuring funding and support for sustamability initiatives In terms of developing sustamability metrics, Green Dubuque will carefully quantify the prospective and ongoing greenhouse gas impact of specific local actions Greenhouse gas reduction is a common thread running through virtually all aspects of sustamability, including transportation, air and water quality, ecosystem integrity, energy use and efficiency, and urban planning and design Phase II of 50°0 by 2030 will provide a common metric linking all of these components, This will increase understanding not just the impact of each action individually, but also how they all fit together into the greater whole of Sustainable Dubuque In terms of funding and support for sustamability initiatives, the 50°0 by 2030 initiative is a unique local effort that heightens Dubuque's national stature and leadership in local sustamability Supporting and reporting on the 50°0 by 2030 initiative will keep Dubuque at the cutting edge of sustamability where we will continue to attract well- deserved jobs, funding, and investment Green Dubuque is uniquely positioned to complete Phase II of 50°0 by 2030 Over the past four years, Green Dubuque has (1) compiled and authored Dubuque's governmental and community -wide greenhouse gas inventories, (2) authored the 50°0 o by 2030 feasibility study outlining potential paths to reduce local emissions, (3) been deeply immersed in sustamability in Dubuque, and (4) built contacts and working relationships with City staff, local businesses and organizations, and the hundreds of citizens endorsing the 50°0 o by 2030 initiative These will all be key components of building a comprehensive, carefully quantified, business friendly toolkit for reducing Dubuque's greenhouse gas emissions 50°0 by 2030 Thank you for your ongoing commitment to a healthier, more resilient Dubuque Your strong leadership has made Dubuque an international model of success in sustainability initiatives and citizen empowerment for medium sized cities We hope you will consider supporting our efforts Sincerely, Jason Schatz President, Green Dubuque Inc Project Budget $67.500 Project Duration January ^_OL - September 2012 Deliverable Components City of Dubuque Green Dubuque* Cost Cost Component #1- Re- inventory and Analysis Inventory 2010, 2011 $2,000 $2,000 o Re- calculate Emissions factors • Electric grid changes • Vehicle mix (fuel/type) percentages • New energy sources Analyze and interpret trends $3,000 $3,000 • Compare 2010 with Census data • Determine possible cause and effect Re- forecast external trends $1,000 $1,000 Component #2- Plan Development - Business/stakeholder meetings $3,500 $3,000 Major employers Locally owned businesses Public Servants Local nonprofits Citizen workshops Review of reduction opportunities $10,000 $10,000 Market opportunities • Barriers to change (Micro) • New markets (Macro) • Quantify Impact Policy options • Analysis of efficacy of options • Prioritize "win, win, win" options • Quantify Impact Nonprofit and citizen efforts • Compile /extrapolate current efforts • Quantify Impact - Midway Progress Review with City Council $0 $1,000 Component #3- Report - Report Draft $3,000 $5,000 o Triple Bottom Line (co- benefits) analysis Detailed Description /Analysis of individual options Estimated timeline of potential implementation o Methodology Meetings/Review with City Staff $0 $1,000 Final Report ** $2,000 $3,000 o Written Report ( Word and PDF format ) o Presentation with City Staff to City Council Component #4- Community Engagement - Publics events $2,000 $3,000 - Media $1,000 $1,000 o advertising, o Social media Misc. Expenses - Travel expenses $0 $2,000 - Accountant $0 $2,000 - Printed materials $0 $1,000 - Website maintenance $0 $1,000 Total $28,500 $39,000* *Estimate Includes Donated hours from payees * *Includes 1 re -write Deliverables • Written Report to City Council Review of greenhouse gas reduction opportunities Build a comprehensive list of potential strategies for local climate action, which will account for ongoing and prospective actions and serve as a foundation and template for routine future updates by City staff For each strategy, report will include - Description of strategy - Anticipated annual impact on community GHG emissions - Affected sectors - Entities responsible for implementation - Timetable for implementation - Current progress in Dubuque to date (if any) - Anticipated costs - Anticipated co- benefits - Potential funding sources - Barriers to implementation - Examples of implementation in other communities Review of community GHG emissions - Inventory calendar year (2UU9, 2()1U) - Compare and analyze trends in light of national trends and past /ongoing local action - Compare 2010 data to census data to determine correlations • Engaged and informed community that takes ownership of reduction opportunities Media /Social Media - Maintain online presence (Facebook, dubuqueghgplan org, greendubuque org, sustamabledubuque org) for public to gain information and updates and provide input - Focus on local success stories related to climate mitigation Events and Educational Materials - Describe what is happening locally - Personal action opportunities - Encourage community discussion - Emphasize "grassroots" driven solutions • Technical support to City staff and partner organizations Technical assistance and analysis regarding content included in written report - Assistance for grant writing - Budgeting - Sustainable Dubuque performance indicators Management Team and City Green Team training in greenhouse gas reduction approaches* - Meetings /Presentations * Additional hours beyond initial training will be billed at $35 per person, per hour 50 2030 dubuque GHG REDUCTION PLAN VERSION 1.0 March 2011 www.dubuqueGHGplan.org EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 50% BY 2030 IN A NUTSHELL 50% by 2030 is a community driven effort to unite Dubuque in support of 50% local greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction by 2030 (from 2003 levels). This report is version 1.0 of a community -wide plan to help us achieve that goal. The plan provides an initial outline but is intended to be further developed and refined through community input, consultation with local leaders and stakeholders, and the emergence of new emission reduction opportunities. There are three key points we hope to convey in this report. First, the motivation behind the 50% by 2030 target; second, how we can achieve that goal; and third, the benefits Dubuque will receive in the process. Here are those three points in a nutshell: 1) We care about climate change because we care about people. While climate change affects many important aspects of our world, our primary concern is people. And the reality is that a stable climate is good for people —good for their water and food supplies, economic prosperity, health, the weather they face, the ecosystems they rely on, and much more. The more we can prevent rapid climate change, the better off people will be. 2) Dubuque can reduce its GHG emissions by 50% by 2030. The Dubuque GHG Plan demonstrates that the solutions to this challenge are already at our fingertips. We do not have to wait for a Federal mandate or new technology to start building a better community. 82% of the reductions discussed in this plan are already in some stage of consideration, planning, or implementation in Dubuque, making us entirely capable of addressing this problem right now while reaping significant benefits in the process. 3) This plan is good for Dubuque. GHG reduction may be the common thread tying this plan together, but it is by no means the only or even the main benefit. The options outlined in the plan are predominantly simple, no- regret solutions that are in Dubuque's interest regardless of GHG reduction. In other words, the primary benefits will be to the health, economic prosperity, and quality of life of our community. ii ABOUT 50% BY 2030 Every great achievement starts with two things a goal, and a plan. The goal should be specific, ambitious, and attainable. The plan should be detailed, practical, and effective. Without both a goal and a plan we will not know where we are going or how to get there, let alone the best way to get there. The Dubuque community businesses, government leaders, and individual citizens has been working to reduce GHG emissions but lacks a specific goal to guide, motivate, and gauge the success of its efforts. There is also no comprehensive plan to ensure that GHG reduction in Dubuque is prioritized in terns of effectiveness and inunediate benefits to the community. In response to this need, the Dubuque Community GHG Reduction Task Force was convened in 2010, with representatives from local non - profits, businesses, government, faith -based organizations, and individual citizens. Over the following year, the Task Force agreed on a feasible GHG reduction goal and crafted a detailed plan to help the community achieve it. The goal is to unite the community behind 50 °o GHG reduction by 2030 and begin taking measurable steps toward that goal. Beyond that, we seek to re- engage the community in the discussion of climate change by showing the local government, businesses, and individual citizens the most effective, feasible, and beneficial GHG reduction opportunities available to them. Why This Plan is Unique There is currently no GHG reduction goal or plan in Dubuque, and as far as we know this is a one -of -a -kind effort in the entire country. Other cities have made impressive strides in GHG reduction. 50°0 by 2030 builds on those pioneering efforts to create a truly unique initiative that is highly specific, carefully quantified, and purely community driven. These unique traits will make Dubuque an innovative national leader in local sustainability and make us the first community to map out a specific path to 50°0 GHG reduction. Having a detailed plan also will allow Dubuque to optimize our set of solutions, which were selected according to two major criteria: a They are already mailable to Dubuque. 82 °o of the reductions discussed in this plan are already in some stage of consideration, planning, or implementation (see p. v). a They are no- regret solutions. meaning that they are in the community's interest to implement regardless of their impact on climate change. In other words, the primary benefits of most recommendations will be to the health, economic prosperity, and quality of life in Dubuque. Why 50% by 2030? Simply stated. 50 °o by 2030 is the minimum global GHG reduction necessary to keep atmospheric CO, concentrations below 450 ppm and maintain a climate hospitable to human health and welfare. The temperature increase most likely to occur at 450 ppm is 3.6 "F (2 "C), with a 54 °o chance of a greater increase. In other words. 50 °o by 2030 provides close to a 50/50 chance of keeping temperatures within tolerable and adaptable limits. Of course, the more we can reduce GHG emissions, the more hospitable our climate will be, but 50°0 reduction by 2030 is an excellent start. TOTAL REDUCTIONS The total GHG reduction we achieve by 2030 depends on two things what we do in Dubuque, and external trends in vehicle and electricity emissions We created three scenarios for different external trends while keeping Dubuque's actions constant A Low - Emissions Scenario, m which current commitments toward renewable energy and vehicle fuel efficiency are met, and the positive trends created by those commitments continue thereafter Under gas scenario, Dubuque can achieve over 50% reduction by 2030 using the actions des cnbed in the plan (Table El) A. Medium - Emissions Scenario, in which current commitments toward renewables and vehicle efficiency are met, but improvements beyond that are only moderate, being comparable to trends for the past decades Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve appmxamately 45% reduction by 2030 using the actions described in the plan A High - Emissions Scenario, in which current trends and commitments toward renewables and vehicle efficiency are largely met, but improvements beyond those commitments are minimal, often being less than recent trends Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve approximately 40 % reduction by 2030 using the actions described in the plan Table El Total GHG emission reductions by 2030 (tomes COielyear) under three external emissions scenarios A hst of individual reductions can be found in Table E2 on n mu Sector High- emissions Mid-range Low - emissions Waste 67,322 66,600 65,448 Local energy 185,473 174,407 156,740 Transportation 36,532 35,001 33,561 Built Environment 130,124 128,843 126,797 Other reductions 35,641 35,641 35,641 External trends 27,515 91,084 182,801 Total reductions 482,607 531,576 600,988 Totals High- emissions Mid -range Low - emissions 2003 emissions 1,054,216 1,054,216 1,054,216 2009 emissions 1,114,785 1,114,785 1,114,785 Total reductions (from above) 482,607 531,576 600,988 2030 emissions (estimated) 632,178 583,209 513,797 Percent reduction hum 2003 levels 44 776 51 3% In summary, estimated reductions from this plan range from 40 -51% by 2030 Even in the high- emissions scenario, the Dubuque community can still achieve 40% reduction by 2030 using only the actions described in this plan Notably, the current plan only includes actions that are currently available to Dubuque and does not include any additional GHG reduction opportunities that may anse over the next 20 years It would be surprising indeed if significant new opportunities did not anse over the coming decades, especially considering that most of the reductions described in this plan have arisen only in the past five years IV FEASIBILITY OF 500/o BY 2030 This plan was designed to pnontize existing GHG reduction actions in the Dubuque community And in fact, half of the reductions in this plan consist of actions that are already in progress (31 %) or are finely planned and merely awaitmg implementation (19 %), such as the SW Aitenal and Intennodal Transportation Facility An additional 32% of proposed reductions have been studied and are under consideration within the community (e g the wood waste CHP system descnbed in the Local Energy section) In total, that is 82% of proposed reductions that are under consideration; planned and awaiting full funding or final approval; or are already occurring in Dubuque Only a small portion of the reduction relies on external trends and proposals newly set out in this plan In other words, the actions necessary to achieve 50% GHG reduction are already in hand, and we have nearly two full decades until 2030 to bwld on this already- impressive foundation Setting this initial target will help spur local and regional innovation, bnng focus to Dubuque's purswt of GHG reduction, and bung exciting new opportunities to our city New Proposals 1% Under Consideration 32% Fig El Percent of total GHG reductions by 2030 (in mid-range extemal emissions scenano) from external reduction trends, initiatives that are already in progress in Dubuque, initiatives that are already planned or being planned for Dubuque, initiatives that have been studied and are under consideration, and new opportunities proposed in this plan Where there is overlap in reductions (e g an either -or situation between two potential actions), the action closer to implementation was chosen and included in estimates, while the other was excluded v BENEFITS TO DUBUQUE GHG reduction may be the common thread tying all of these options together, but it is by no means the only or even main benefit. The vast majority of options in this plan are "no -regret solutions" that are in the community's interest regardless of climate impact. In other words, the primary benefits of most recommendations will be to local health, economic prosperity, and quality of life. Health a Air quality. Reducing driving miles and traffic congestion improves local air quality. Also, any action that reduces energy use reduces the amount of energy demanded from coal burning power plants, leading to fewer emissions of particulate matter and other health hazards. 1 Urban Heat Island (UHI) minimization. The UHI is basically the local "island" of elevated temperatures that occurs in urban environments due to absorption of sunlight on dark urban surfaces. Actions in this plan can minimize this effect and reduce heat stress and levels of temperature- sensitive air pollutants. 1 Physical fitness. Increased viability of pedestrian and bicycle travel options will facilitate active transport and recreation, yielding improvements in physical fitness. 1 Safety. Compact infrastructure means more compact coverage areas for police, fire fighters, and emergency medical services. Also, more - complete, less -busy streets reduce collision rates. Economic Prosperity 1 Local Investment. In the past five years. Dubuque has received over $10 million in grants and investment because of its sustainability efforts. IBM, which brought 1300 jobs to our city, cited Dubuque's sustainability vision as a major factor setting it apart from other candidate cities. 1 Local businesses. Eagle Point Solar, Four Seasons Geothermal, 7th Power Sustainable, Durrant, IBM. Dittmer Recycling, Gronen Restoration, and many other local businesses are partially or exclusively focused on sustainability and GHG reduction. Such businesses will continue to choose Dubuque if we continue to demonstrate dedication to progress and innovation. 1 Infrastructure and jobs. The proposed Intermodal Transportation Facility is anticipated to create over 100 jobs and between $100 and $200 million in benefits over the next 30 years. This is only one example, but any new infrastructure will create jobs. 1 Downtown revitalization. The Port of Dubuque and Historic Millwork District are two recent examples of re- developing existing City space and infrastructure, and are responsible for attracting countless tourists, residents, and investment dollars into the community. 1 Local spending, local prosperity. When energy dollars are spent on locally generated energy, or when energy efficiency allows consumers to keep more money in their pockets, that money is retained in the local economy rather than being sent elsewhere for fossil fuels. 1 Energy efficiency yields sustained savings on utility bills for local residents and business owners. Basically, you do not have to pay for energy you do not use. 1 Transportation. More efficient transportation networks and viable mobility alternatives can save Dubuque residents money by facilitating fewer driving miles, less gridlock and congestion, and less need for as many vehicles as less- expensive travel options continue to develop. 1 Reducing local government operating costs. Many of the options in this plan minimize the cost of local governnent services, representing significant savings to taxpayers. 1 Residential and commercial renewable energy projects give property owners control and certainty over their energy costs, and can result in significant cost savings over the long run. 1 Health Benefits. In general, health benefits also yield economic benefits by lowering health care costs, increasing worker productivity, and reducing absenteeism at schools and workplaces. vi °utility of Life a most of the benefits summarized above also represent improvements in quality of life. Although we can portray health and other benefits in economic terms. those dollars and cents represent real people whose health and quality of life is difficult to put a price tag on. a Improved mobility. Over 500o of Dubuque residents belong to at least one group that historically has been poorly- served by conventional transportation systems (those aged 12 -15: senior citizens: people with disabilities: households with no vehicle or difficulty affording a vehicle: and households with only one vehicle per two or more adults). This represents an enormous latent demand for safer. less expensive. and more convenient mobility options that a more complete transportation system can provide. a Outdoor aesthetics. Natural areas. green space. and city planning will improve the aesthetics of the landscape. a Indoor aesthetics. Many programs discussed in this plan facilitate indoor environmental improvements in buildings. which can yield fresher air. comfortable building temperatures. natural lighting. and other traits that enhance work environments and improve the health. morale. and productivity of employees. vii Table E2 GHG reduction actions and resultms emissions reductions by 2030 in Dubuque under a low- emissions scenario a) 5 0 TCI 0 Q (1) P2L Built Environment 0) L viii Reduction Action Tonnes CO2elyear DMAWA methane capture CHP (onsite power gen) 57,953 or DMASWA methane flaring 22,422 50% waste diversion TBA 10% Food scrap diversion (wroth methane capture) TBA 80% Food scrap diversion ( prvate hauler, methane capture) TBA or 80% Food scrap diversion (private hauler, no methane capture) 7,495 Insinkerator diversion with 3rd turbine at WPCP TBA Waste Subtotal 1 65,448 Wood Waste CHP $40 /ton wood 95,228 Wood Waste CHP $70/ton wood 146,052 or Combined Heat and Biochar - $40/ton wood (75% capacity) 40,793 Combined Heat and Biochar - $70/ton wood (75% capacity) 88,475 Solar/PPA 7,006 Ground Source Heat Pumps 3,444 Property tax incentives *100s Second Nature/Watts Green 138 Local Energy Subtotal 1.�_' „"��'',2' Complete Streets 17,469 Bus system transformation 376 Fuel efficient buses 1,008 Southwest Arterial 7,762 Dubuque Smarter City ITS 4,591 Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Facility 2,255 Particle filters on City vehicles 861 (not included in totals) Unbundle rents from parking *100s Transportation Subtotal 33,561 ECIA Petal Project 13,674 VVPCP anaerobic digestion upgrade 791 WPCP methane capture power gen 2,653 7”' Power Sustamabdity /Dubuque School Partnership 889 IBM Smarter City — Pilot 2,271 IBM Smarter City — Citywide 51,760 IECC Residential Budding Standards 20,610 IECC Commercial Building Standards 28,127 US Green Budding Council LEED for existing buildings *1,000s PACE (or similar program) 2,922 State/Federal energy efficiency & renewable energy programs *100s Dubuque Unified Development Code *1,000s Infdl Development *1,000s Built Environment Subtotal 126,797 .1■I City tree planting 600 Cool roofs /pavement program 1,057 HFC /R -22 refrigerant phaseout 11,148 Misc community initiativ es 22,296 (2% reduction between al° Other Subtotal � 35,641 External Trends 182,801 Grand Total 600,988 (51 3% reduction) INTRODUCTION DUBUQUE GHG REDUCTION TASK FORCE Every great achievement starts with two things —a goal, and a plan. The goal should be specific, ambitious, and attainable. The plan should be detailed, practical, and effective. Without both a goal and a plan we will not know where we are going or how to get there, let alone the best way to get there. The Dubuque community— businesses, government leaders, and individual citizens —has been working to reduce GHG emissions but lacks a specific goal to guide, motivate, and gauge the success of its efforts. There is also no comprehensive plan to ensure that GHG reduction in Dubuque is prioritized in terms of effectiveness and immediate benefits to the community. In response to this need, the Dubuque GHG Reduction Task Force was convened in 2010. The Task Force is a partnership of local non - profits, faith -based organizations, local government officials, local business - people, and individual citizens with the designated purpose of recommending a GHG reduction goal and feasible implementation strategy to the Dubuque City Council. Members of the Task Force included: 1 Theothoros Giannakouros - Vice President, Green Dubuque, Inc. 1 Jason Schatz - President, Green Dubuque, Inc. ' Candace Eudaley - Economic Development and Sustaznabzlzty Coordinator, ECIA A Pat Hayes, President - Dubuque County Conservation Society A Mark Henning - 7" Power Sustainable, LLC A Will Hoyer - Green Dubuque Inc. 1 Chad Oberdoester - Environmental Stewardship Advisory Commission 1 Sr. Joy Peterson - Sisters of the PBVM ' David Roling – Independent Energy Consultant A Paul Schultz – Resource Management Coordinator, City of Dubuque A Charles Winterwood M.D. - Chairman, White Pine Group, Sierra Club Over the following year, the Task Force agreed on an ambitious yet feasible GHG reduction goal and crafted a detailed plan to help the community achieve it. The goal is 50% reduction by 2030 for the Dubuque community (from 2003 levels), with an interim goal of 30% by 2020. The plan provides a detailed, quantified, and realistic path to achieving those goals. THE GOAL The primary goal of this initiative is to unite Dubuque in support of 50% GHG reduction by 2030 and begin taking measurable steps toward that goal. Beyond that, we seek to re- engage the community in the discussion of climate change by showing the City government, local businesses, and individual citizens the most effective, feasible, and desirable GHG reduction steps available to them. To that end, we also wish to solicit the diverse voices of the community in order to craft the best possible GHG reduction strategy. In other words, this plan is not meant to be the final word. This plan provides an initial outline but is intended to be further developed and refined through community input, consultation with local leaders and stakeholders, and the emergence of new emission reduction opportunities. 1 WHY THIS PLAN IS UNIQUE First. this is a one -of -a -kind effort in Dubuque. as there is no existing GHG reduction goal or comprehensive plan for our community. Second. as far as we know this is a one -of -a -kind effort in the entzre conntrj. Other cities have made impressive strides in GHG reduction. 50 °o by 2030 builds on those pioneering efforts to create a truly unique initiative that is highly specific. carefully quantified. and purely community driven. Dubuque's plan strongly promotes public- private partnerships in lieu of government regulation in order to better engage the business community. The plan also carefully quantifies the impact of various GHG reduction actions to see if those actions can. in fact. reduce GHG emissions 50 °o by 2030. These unique traits will make Dubuque an innovative national leader in local sustainability and make us the first community to map out a specific path to 50°0 GHG reduction. But let us be clear. This plan is not intended to be a binding set of recommendations. nor is this an exhaustive account of the GHG reduction opportunities available to us. There are many possible paths to reaching 50 °o by 2030. and we cannot know what kinds of GHG reduction opportunities will emerge over the next 20 years. The main purpose of this plan is to illustrate that ire can reach 50° recluctzon by 2030 uszng only actions that are already available to us: and in many cases. those options are already being implemented. We do not have to wait for a Federal mandate or new technology to start building a better community. Dubuque is entirely capable of addressing this problem right now. and to reap significant benefits in the process. REPORT PREVIEW This report presents a set of strategies by which the Dubuque community can feasibly reduce its GHG emissions by 50 °o by 2030 (from 2003 levels). The report is divided into four sections: 1) The causes and consequences of climate change under a range of scenarios, both globally and for Iowa specifically. 2) Current and future GHG emission trends for the Dubuque community 3) GHG reductions available to Dubuque. 4) The immediate local benefits of various GHG reduction strategies. There are also several appendices discussing calculations and assumptions. emissions budgeting and the importance of rapid action. and a glossary of common "climate related" terms that often are used in this report. 2 GLOBAL CL MATF CHAMP WHY THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING Thermal radiation escaping to space 27 %reflect ed by clouds & atmosphere Solar radiation (100 %) 20% absorbed y clouds and atmosphere 3 %reflected by earths surface Thermal radiation absorbed and "trapped" by greenhouse gases 50% of solar radiation (big red arrow) is absorbed by earth's surface and emitted as thermal radiation (black wavy arrow) Atmosphere Figure 1 The greenhouse effect Earth's climate is a very complex system, but the greenhouse effect itself is relatively straightforward The greenhouse effect occurs because greenhouse gases are transparent to incoming solar radiation but are not transparent to outgoing thermal radiation In other words, incoming energy from the sun is not absorbed by greenhouse gases But when solar energy is absorbed by the earth's surface, it is re- emitted as thermal radiation, which greenhouse gases do absorb When there are more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, more thermal radiation is absorbed and trapped, which causes temperatures to nse The greenhouse effect is as simple as that The United States has produced around 30% of the world's GHG gas emissions since the industrial revolution, continues to emit 20 -25% of the world's total annual emissions, and maintains a very high rate of emissions per person (IEA 2007) (Fig 2) In the U S Midwest alone, 2005 emissions were higher than those of all other nations except China and Russia India, with its nearly 12 billion residents, emitted less CO2 than the Midwest in 2005 (UCS 2009) This makes the Midwest a key player in the effort to mimmize climate change 3 20 -unreel Slates Saud Arabia AuM.rafa 19 l7 18 15 14 13 High income 41 average 12 It 10 9- 8. 7 8 5- V /odd :' average a. 2- Low ncome I average 0 1 11 Czech Pvpubk Norway SouthAlMP Ukraine Mayla France Sweden Iran Mexico • Algorby Turkey Thalami Gabon EgyCnina Braze 11 Sore• WMO Birk atm 41 wtt..1 4 F>buie 2 2004 per capita greenhouse gas emissions by country 4 Uruguay GNP per capita, PPP Indonesa (International $) Inda II more than 20000 Pnapgriee II 10 00010 20 000 Guatemala ■ 5 00010 10000 Pakistan 11 2 000 10 5 000 • • Yemen Togo Iees than 2000 N Lh p�N Warta* nda Uganda Mali 0 HOW THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING Climate Change to Date Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased by nearly 40° o since the mid -19th century, from approximately 280 ppm (parts per million) to over 392 ppm today, and continue to increase at a rate of around 2 ppm/year. Land use change, including deforestation and intensive agriculture, has caused significant loss of the carbon stored in plants and soil, and accounts for about 1/3 of the CO2 increase since the industrial revolution. The other 2/3 has come from burning fossil fuels. In addition to CO2, several other atmospheric trace gases, including CH,. N20, and HFCs, contribute to the human - generated grccnhousc effect. Oceans, plants, and soils absorb some of our GHG emissions but are only able to absorb around half of total annual emissions. These net emissions can linger in the atmosphere for more than a century. Recent modeling studies have found that even if emissions decrease in the near future, there will be a significant lag time of centuries or more before temperatures also return to normal (lvleinshausen et al. 2009: Allen et al. 2009). In other words, if temperatures are allowed to increase by 3.6 "F. our climate is expected to maintain those higher temperatures for centuries after GHG emissions decline. This highlights the importance of early action the more warming we can prevent, the more hospitable the climate will be for centuries to come. Paths to the Future - What are our Options? According to the IPCC, a 51 -64 °o reduction in grccnhousc gas emissions by 2030 (from 2005 levels) are necessary to keep atmospheric CO2 concentrations below 450 ppm (IPCC 2007). For Dubuque, a 50°0 reduction by 2030 (from 2003 levels) would be in line with that target. What is the significance of a 450 ppm target? From the IPCC's 2007 report: "450 ppm CO2e corresponds to a best estimate of 2.1 °C (3.6 °F) temperature rise above pre - industrial global average...likely in the range of 1.- 4 -3.1 °C (2.5- 5.6 °F) rise." In other words, the temperature increase most likely to occur at 450 ppm is 3.6 "F, though the IPCC also estimates a 54 °o chance that 450 ppm will create greater warming than 3.6 "F. Limiting temperature increases to 3.6 "F or less has been targeted by most national and international climate initiatives for several reasons, including: 4) 3.6 "F provides a moderate probability of avoiding the most dangerous and irreversible impacts of climate change (Fig. 3: Table 1). 5) Successful adaptation to a 3.6 "F rise may be feasible for most developed and developing nations. Neither of these two reasons behind are without uncertainty or controversy, however. For instance, the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Accord included an agreement to review the 3.6 "F target and shift it downward if evidence continues to mount that we are unlikely to adapt successfully to 3.6 "F rise. Also, as discussed above. 450 ppm only provides an approximately 50°0 chance of warning being less than 3.6 "F (Fig. 3). Nonetheless. 450 ppm provides an important rallying point around which emission mitigation efforts can begin to take shape. 5 emperature'Ise, •e•rees e siu 6.0 - 5.5 - 5.0 - 4.5 — 4.0 — 3.5 - 3.0 - 2.5 1.5 1.0 - 0.5 = 0.5 - 2.0 400 ppm 450 ppm 500 ppm 550 ppm 650 ppm 750 ppm 1000 ppm Entire cities and countries lost to sea level 20 -50% Species Lost 1 -4 Billion people face water shortages 15 -40% Species Lost 10% Species Lost Figure 3 Likely effects of four greenhouse gas reduction paths The 50% reduction target and plan for Dubuque is consistent with the minimum global reductions necessary to achieve 450 ppm Figure from The Game Plan a solution framework for the climate challenge by Saul Griffith Available at www wattzon com/pdfs/GamePlan_v I Opdf 6 Table 1 Hi confidence (8 in 10 probability or better projections of the effects of various temperature increases Global average annual temperature change above 1990 levels High Confidence Projections oC of 2 3.6 A Agricultural productivity in low latitudes, especially Africa, will drop sharply A Millions exposed to coastal flooding each year A Extinction of species becomes significant, especially coral reefs and arctic animals 3 5.4 Agricultural productivity and economic output will drop everywhere A 30 percent of global coastal wetlands lost A Substantial burden on health services from disease, malnutrition, heat waves, floods, and droughts 4 72 A Extinction of species will become widespread 2.5 to 4.5 3.6 to 8.1 A Threshold for eventual loss of the Greenland ice sheet, ultimately causing 7m (23 ft) of sea level rise Source: IPCC 2007. AR4 Synthesis Report Table 3.6 on p.51 The IPCC's 2007 report only includes data up to 2006. More recent studies suggest that the GHGs already emitted have committed us to up to 2.5 to 7.7 °F of warming, a commitment that is expected to rise to 3.8 to 9.7 °F by 2030 unless serious action is taken in the meantime (Ramanathan and Feng 2008). Sokolov et al. (2009) warn that in the absence of emissions mitigation measures, temperature increases this century could exceed 12.6 °F. Our current emissions actually exceed the IPCC's worst case scenario. If this course is not altered, the best estimate indicates that the world will warm by an average of 7.2 °F or more by the end of the century. Notably, the temperatures discussed here are global averages, but temperature on land will generally increase much faster than ocean temperatures (basically, because it is much easier to heat a few feet of soil than a few thousand feet of water). For example, an average global temperature increase of 3.6 °F may actually represent a 1 -2 °F average increase on the oceans and a 6 -8 °F (or more) increase on land, particularly in the northern hemisphere which has more land area than the southern hemisphere. So for Iowa, actual the temperature increase are likely to be much greater than the global average increase. Anticipate impacts on Iowa are discussed in later sections and in a 2011 report from the State of Iowa, accessible at www.iowadnr.gov /iccac /files /completereport.pdf. Global Consequences of Temperature Increases The cost of climate change is expected to accelerate with each additional degree of warming. These accelerating costs occur because more temperature thresholds, or tipping points, are crossed at higher temperatures. A tipping point is simply a threshold at which further change triggers abrupt and often irreversible changes to human or natural systems. In other words, once a certain temperature or precipitation threshold is crossed, rapid changes will occur that are unlikely or impossible to reverse (Table 1; Table 2). Many of these tipping points are already occurring and well documented, well before we have reached the <3.6 °F warming targeted by the 450 ppm goal. So even this target leaves us facing significant adaptation challenges. Nonetheless, the rate and severity of these impacts will be much less severe at 450 ppm than at higher greenhouse gas concentrations. 7 Table 2 Potential ti nnme nomts tneeered by climate thane Effect Why is this a tipping point? Sea level rise displacing hundreds of millions of coastal people and salinizing valuable croplands and drinking water supplies Sea level cannot be lowered over times of less than a few centuries, making sea level nse and coastal land /crop /freshwater loss irreversible When salt water infiltrates agricultural lands and freshwater supply, those resources are unlikely to be reclaimed Spread of human and agricultural pests and disease previously limited by temperature barriers When pests and diseases enter a region and find suitable hosts, they tend to find ways to persist Rapid loss of polar ice sheets Ice loss tends to beget further ice loss by "lubricating" the movement of glaciers, increasing the temperature of surrounding water, and exposing darker non -ice- covered surfaces that absorb more sunlight and radiate more heat than ice According to Hansen et al (2008), Arctic ice loss occurs at 325 -355 ppm CO_ Permafrost loss in high northern latitudes. leading to release of huge reservoirs of GHGs currently locked in the frozen ground in soils and belowground biomass Melted permafrost tends to physically collapse and /or be invaded by dense shrubs that absorb more sunlight (relative to reflective snow and ice cover and relatively bare ground) and lead to further warming and melting Tundra and other permafrost areas are unlikely to recover once substrates and plant communities have changed so significantly A. Hydrological limits beyond which regions can no longer support particular crops, ecosystems, or human settlements: and biodiversity loss and- species extinction Desertification can occur rapidly after certain hydrological limits are reached Loss of plant cover can lead to rapid soil loss and degradation, breakdown of native ecosystem resiliency, and changes in local precipitation pattems As such, once desertification is underway, reversing it is a tremendous challenge, particularly on large scales Over 1/6 of the world's population relies on seasonal meltwater from mountain glaciers and snowpack for for drinking water, irrigation, and maintaining ecosystems services These mountain water supplies are already undergoing near- global retreat at current CO_ concentrations (388 ppm) Loss of coral reefs due to ocean temperature rise and acidification Ocean acidification results from CO_ being absorbed by the oceans Warmer, more acidic waters stress many marine organisms and reduce their ability to form calcium carbonate shells and skeletons, which form the backbone of coral reefs Biologists widely agree that reefs are not likely to survive in warmer, more acidic oceans, even a 450 ppm target essentially dooms reef ecosystems to irreversible, catastrophic decline and extinction (Royal Society 2(1 i9) Species extinction The loss of any species is irreversible Up to 25°0 of species could be at risk of extinction in a high - emissions scenario Source: IPCC 200-..4R -1 Synthesis Report. 8 CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE MIDWEST +$A, IL, WI, MN, IN, MI, OH, MO The previous sections discuss climate change on a global scale, but what about the Midwest region specifically9 Agnculture, which relies on a stable and predictable climate, is responsible for over $19 billion of Iowa's economy and up to 20% of its jobs The economy of much of the Midwest relies heavily on farming, forestry, and other natural resources sectors, so the Midwest clearly has a major stake m maintaining a hospitable climate This section will discuss the potential impacts of climate change on the Midwest usmg findings from a 2009 report from the U S Global Change Research Program, which compiled the latest scientific knowledge on the impacts of Ong trends on the U S (USGCRP 2009) Temperature The highest temperature increases are strongly expected to occur in more northern latitudes m the middle of continents, putting Iowa at sigmficant nsk of major temperature mcreases Over the coming century, Iowa's summer temperatures could come to resemble those of present day Oklahoma or Texas, with mean annual temperatures nsmg 5 -10 °F (Fig 4) Our current global emissions match or exceed the highest ennssions scenario considered, putting us on track for very high temperature increases Low Emissions High Emissions Scenario Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 >10 (`F) Figure 4 Predicted average temperature changes in the U S by the end of the century in low (550 ppm) and high (900 ppm) emissions scenarios Fig modrfied from U S GCRP 2009 report 9 If we continue to follow the high emissions path (900 ppm), the number of days exceeding 100 °F in Iowa is expected to reach 45 to 75 days per year by the end of the century (Fig. 5). In other words, around two months of every summer are expected to exceed 100 °F. Such extreme heat presents a major danger to people, crops, and livestock. It also creates an uncomfortable living environment and will increase health care costs due to respiratory and heat - related ailments. In a low- emissions scenario (550 ppm), the number of 100 + °F days in Iowa is expected to reach <10 to 20 days per year by the end of the century, significantly fewer than in the high- emissions scenario. This illustrates the striking differences in the consequences between continuing our high emissions path or actively pursuing a lower emissions future. Recent Past - 1961 -1979 Low Emissions - 2080 -2099 High Emissions - 2080 -2099 1--- Number of Days per year over 100 °F 00 20 30 45 00 75 90 105 )120 Figure 5. Predicted changes in number of days per year exceeding 100 °F in the U.S. in the present day and end of the century in a high emissions scenario. Fig. modified from U.S. GCRP 2009 report. 10 Precipitation By the end of this century, winters and springs are predicted to be 20 -30% wetter m a high enussions scenano, increasing the nsk of sprang floods In the hot summer months, total precipitation is predicted to decrease, which will increase the likelihood of droughts (Fig 6) Precipitation patterns m the low emissions scenano are similar, but less severe The nature of precipitation is also beginning to change The U S Global Change Research Program's 2009 report reveals that over the past 50 years, the number of downpours in the Midwest has increased by 31% (Fig 7) Notably, this does not include the heavy rainfall and flooding of 2008 and 2010 In other words, the water cycle is intensifymg, with less - frequent, more - mtense storms that increase the nsk of flooding This trend is expected to continue over the next century, with more and more of our precipitation concentrated m more intense events separated by longer dry spells (Fig 8) In the lugh- eimssions scenano, the heaviest precipitation events are expected to mcrease by up to 50% Here again, the low- enussions scenano would provide a significantly more hospitable chmate compared to the high - eimssions scenano Increasmgly severe weather is also likely to lead to more flood events hke those of 1993, 2008, and 2010 The 1993 and 2008 floods alone costs Iowans an estimated $1 56 billion and $10 billion, respectively, leading to 85 of Iowa's 99 counties bemg declared Federal disaster areas 40,000 Iowans were forced from their homes, an estimated 7,500 jobs were lost, and the Amencan Farm Bureau estimated $4 billion m crop losses m 2008 alone The full cost of the 2010 floods has yet to be tallied, but the contmued recurrence of severe flooding illustrates the nsks we face if we contmue to enut GHGs at high rates It will be very costly if such devastatmg floods Figure 7 Increases in the amounts of very heavy precipitation become the "new normal" in Iowa from 1958 -2007 N 14• 47:4").1Ur ti ...i_, Summekir- ... • Percent Change _•ti ===1t1,t1,t x-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 >40 Figure 6 Predicted seasonal percent change in precipitation by the end of the century (2080 -2099) for Iowa Figure modified from U S GCRP 2009 report Increases in Amounts of Very Heavy IPrecipitation (1958 to 2007) 1V6 a Percentage Change in Very Heavy Precipitation 0 0 0 - 10% 10 - 20% 20- 30% 30 - 40% 40 11 Figure modified from US GCRP 2009 report _10, 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentile CCSP SAP 3 368 Fg 8 Projected percent changes over the coming century in the amount of rain falling during hght, moderate, and heavy precipitation events in the United States under high and low emission scenarios Figure mod fled from US GCRP 2009 • Higher emissions scenario" o Lower emissions scenariop1 Lightest Moderate Heaviest In summary, Iowa faces a combination of increased precipitation in the winter and spring, decreased precipitation during the hot summer months, and an increasing share of precipitation concentrated in intense rainfall events separated by long dry spells This intensification of the hydrological cycle puts Iowa at greater risk of both floods and droughts In terms of both temperature and precipitation, there are significant differences between the high and low emissions scenanos, highlighting the importance of the emissions path we choose for our health, economic prosperity, and quality of life 12 DUBUOUE COMMUNITY: TARGETS & TRENDS 2003, 2007, & 2009 EMISSIONS In April 2010, the authors of this report completed a GHG inventory for the City of Dubuque. The inventory cataloged emissions for Dubuque's municipal government operations and for the community as a whole. The inventory included Scope 1 emissions (direct GHG emissions, except for biogenic CO2) and Scope 2 emissions (indirect GHG emissions from consumption of purchased or acquired electricity, steam, heating, or cooling). This report adds 2009 community emissions data. See Appendix C for notes and assumptions in calculating 2009 emissions. Dubuque as a whole generated 1,054,145, 1,240,405, and 1,114,785 tonnes CO2e of GHG emissions in 2003, 2007, and 2009, respectively (Table 3). That equates to annual per capita emissions of 18.4, 21.7, and 19.5 tonnes CO2e in 2003, 2007, and 2009, which are comparable to the 2006 U.S. national average of 19.8 tonnes CO2e per person per year. Dubuque's emissions were predominantly in the form of CO2 (95 %), CH4 (4 %), and N20 (1 %). In 2003, most emissions originated from the transportation (33 %) residential (25 %), industrial (25 %), and commercial (12 %) sectors, with 4% coming from landfill CH4 Emissions in 2007 and 2009 were similarly distributed across city sectors. Table 3 Total GHG emissions from various sectors of the Dubuque, Iowa community in 2003 and 2007 expressed in tonnes of total CO2e Facility Total Emissions (tonnes CO2e) % of Total 2003 2007 2009 2003 2007 2009 Residential (electric) 162,922 216,256 173,915 15% 17% 16% Residential (natural gas) 110,513 100,991 95,021 10% 8% 9% Commercial (electric) 84,560 176,093 152,932 8% 14% 14% Commercial (natural gas) 51,545 49,831 51,549 5% 4% 5% Industrial (electric) 312,431 379,407 315,191 30% 31% 28% Industrial (natural gas) 4,864 1,130 2,054 0 5% 01 % 0 2% Transportation 289,822 274,392 281,227 27% 22% 25% Waste 37,488 42,305 42,896 4% 3% 4% Total 1,054,145 1,240, 405 1,114, 785 - - - 13 REDUCTION TARGETS Scientific Relevance Most national and international GHG reduction efforts have converged on the goal of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 450 ppm (parts per million). The 450 ppm target was selected in order to limit temperature increases to 2 "C (3.6 "F) or less, which is generally considered the temperature threshold below which we can avoid many of the most dangerous and irreversible impacts of climate change (see section: Paths to the Future. above). According to the IPCC, the temperature increase most likely to occur at 450 ppm is 3.6 "F, with a 54° o chance of the increase being higher than 3.6 "F (IPCC 2007). In other words, the 450 ppm target provides an approximately 50/50 chance of maintaining a relatively stable and hospitable climate. Meeting the 450 ppm goal will require a 51 -64 °o GHG emissions reduction by 2030 and 80- 95°o reduction by 2050 from 2005 levels (IPCC 2007). As such, recent national and international GHG reduction initiatives are beginning to converge on those targets (Table 4). In a 2010 analysis, the World Resources Institute estimated that existing federal authorities and state actions could reduce GHG emissions by 5 -270o by 2030, with a "middle -of -the- road" estimate of 18 °0 (WRI 2010). Their analysis included only existing authorities and did not include potential national climate legislation that could bolster GHG reduction rates. Economic Importance The growing momentum behind international, national, and local GHG reduction initiatives create a direct economic incentive for timely action and ambitious targets in Dubuque. Reduction targets in the range of 51 -640o by 2030 are scientifically necessary, so actual emissions targets are likely to converge on these levels, eventually. As such, local economies with a concrete plan in place will be less likely to be caught off guard by cap and trade or other emissions reduction policies. Effective early action could put Dubuque in an economically advantageous position compared to conununities that fail to be proactive in responding to the clear trend toward a low- carbon economy . For instance, grant opportunities, such as the continuing Partnershzp for Snstmnable Comnuantzes program administered cooperatively by the U.S. DOT. HUD, and EPA, will likely continue to reward grantees with "shovel ready' projects that are part of a comprehensive sustainability plan. Prospective state, regional, and federal GHG reduction policies and initiatives are also likely to include significant grant opportunities for conununities to reduce their emissions: these grants are also likely to reward communities with proven, ongoing GHG reduction plans. Further economic benefits of specific GHG reduction opportunities are discussed in the Benefits to Dubuque section. 14 Table 4 Recent and oneome GHG emission reduction nolicies and initiatives Initiative Scope Target Status UNFCCC International "Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" 1992 treaty signed and ratified by US & most other nations. Ongoing negotiations and results include national emissions inventories, annual conferences. the Kyoto Protocol, and the Copenhagen Accord. Kyoto Protocol International Average reduction of 5.2° o from by 2012 (from 1990): commitments differ by nation's economic status Not ratified by US: 187 nations have ratified. Copenhagen Record International 2°C or less temperature rise Not legally binding. U.S. pledged 17 °o by 2020 goal: nations representing nearly 870o of global emissions have engaged with the accord American Clean Energy & Security met - (ACES) National (US Congress) 42 °o by 2030: 83 °o by 2050 Passed by House in 2010 American Power Act National (US Senate) 42 °o by 2030: 83 °o by 2050 Not introduced (potential companion bill to ACES bill from House, above) CLEAR Act National (US Senate) 20 °o by2030 :63 °o by 2050 (estimated by WRI) Not introduced (potential companion bill to ACES bill from House, above) Northeast RGGI Regional 10 °o below 1990 levels by 2018 ( -22 °o below 2005 levels) 10 northeastern states & 1 Canadian province participating: 1 state and provinces observing before committing Western Climate Initiative Regional 15 °o below 2005 levels by 2020 7 states & 4 Canadian provinces participating: many states and provinces observing Midwestern Greenhouse Gas Reduction Accord Regional 20 °o below 2005 levels by 2020 and 80 °o by 2050 (suggests 40 °o by 2030) 6 states & 1 Canadian province participating, including Iowa: 3 states and 1 province observing California Assembly Bill 32 State Back to 1990 levels by 2020 ( -25 °o reduction from business -as- usual) Signed into law Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement Local Same as Kyoto. 20 °o below 2005 levels by ° 2012 (equivalent to 7 o below 1990 levels by 2012) 1O42 mayoral signatories, including Dubuque's Mayor Roy Buol 15 EMISSIONS TRENDS Introduction To model future GHG emissions in Dubuque, tlu-ee emissions scenarios were calculated for Dubuque from 2010 -2030 (see Appendix C for calculations, data sources, and assumptions). These projections included trends for electricity and natural gas consumption, transportation, and waste. These scenarios were created to provide realistic projections of Dubuque's baseline GHG emissions in the absence of significant local action. Such baseline emissions estimates will facilitate accurate accounting of the impact of each GHG reduction initiative in the Dubuque community. Energy Demand According to a 2009 study by the Electric Power Research Institute, energy demand is expected to increase by approximately 1.07 °o per year between 2010 and 2030 (EPRI 2009). This estimate includes projected business -as -usual improvements in appliance, building, and power plant efficiency but does not include any additional measures or policies such as federal climate policy or specific energy efficiency programs. This 1.07 °o annual increase was applied to electricity and natural gas consumption in Dubuque between 2010 and 2030. Electricity Grid Trends In the low- emissions scenario, emissions factors between 2010 and 2030 improved by 33 °o (equivalent to approximately 2 °o annual reduction in emissions intensity): in the mid -range scenario, emissions factors improved by 2200 (approximately 1.25 °o annual reduction in emissions intensity): and in the high- emissions scenario, emissions factors improved by 15 °0 (approximately 0.83 °o annual reduction). These ranges are consistent with an analysis of 2002 -2007 emissions factors, which found steadily declining emissions intensity in the upper Midwest as renewable capacity increased and older, dirtier plants were decommissioned or moved to the margin of production (PA Consulting 2009). For instance. Alliant Energy has announced that the Dubuque Generating Station coal plant will be taken offline in 2015, which will significantly reduce the carbon intensity of Dubuque's energy. Considering the ambitious state and national plans to increase renewable energy production in the upper Midwest (Appendix C), these scenarios may be conservative. Upper Midwestern states appear poised to increase their renewable capacity to greater levels than 33 °o over the next 20 years, but they are also likely to sell much of that energy to other states and utilities striving to meet their own emission reduction goals. As such. 33 °o is the highest emission factor reduction considered here, and 22 °o is the mid -range scenario for Dubuque. See Appendix A for full description of assumptions and data sources. Vehicle Emissions Trends Average CO2 emissions of light duty vehicles in the U.S. have decreased by approximately 8 °o between 2004 and 2009 (EPA 2009), and are slated to improve dramatically in the coming decades. The federal government has finalized plans to improve fuel efficiency by over 14 °o between 2012 and 2016, reaching the equivalent of 35.5 mpg for model year 2016 light duty passenger vehicles (EPA 2010). The EPA has also begun the rule- making process for improving fuel economy by 3 -6° o per year from 2017 through 2025 for passenger vehicles (EPA 2010), and to- be- announced targets for heavy - duty vehicles starting in model year 2014 (EPA 2010) 16 Based on these trends and projections, three emissions scenarios for vehicle emissions were calculated for the period of 2010 -2030. In the low- emissions scenario, it was assumed that the EPA will reach its 2016 target and that fuel economy will continue to improve by 6° o per year until 2025. In the mid - range- emissions scenario, it was assumed that the EPA will reach its 2016 target and that fuel economy will continue to improve by 4.50o per year until 2025. The high - emissions scenario assumes only a 3° o annual improvement improvement in fuel efficiency until 2025 after the EPA's 2016 target is reached. See Appendix C for assumptions and data sources. Waste Methane emissions from the landfill were assumed to remain constant between 2009 and 2030 for these baseline scenarios. Overall Trends Overall trends for 2010 -2030 were based on the assumptions and projections described in the above sections for transportation, electricity, natural gas, and waste emissions. The low emission scenario sums the low- emission scenarios of all individual components (transportation, electricity, natural gas, waste). The mid -range emission scenario sums the mid -range emission scenarios of all the individual components. The high- emission scenario sums the high- emission scenarios of all the individual components. In the low emissions scenario. 2030 emissions are 17.34°0 lower than 2003 levels: in the mid- range emissions scenario. 2030 emissions are 8.640o lower than 2003 levels: in the high- emissions scenario. 2030 emissions are 2.61 °0 lower than 2003 levels (Table 5). Notably, these scenarios only include trends, commitments, initiatives, and technologies that already exist or have already been set in motion. It does not account for any future initiatives or unforeseen technologies. It seems highly unlikely that the next two decades will pass without additional state and national initiatives, significant technological innovation, and continued momentum toward a low carbon economy . As such, even the low- emissions scenario is likely be a conservative projection. 17 Table 5 Low, mid- range, and high emissions scenarios from 2010 -2030 estimated from trends and projections of transportation, electricity, natural gas, and waste emissions Calculations and assumptions are described above Gray shaded boxes are calculated values, 2003, 2007, and 2009 are actual values Units are in metric tonnes CO2e Year Low Emissions Mid- Range High Emissions 2003 1,054,216 1,054,216 1,054,216 2004 2005 2006 2007 1,251,760 1,251,760 1,251,760 2008 2009 1,119, 362 1,119, 362 1,119, 362 2010 1,123, 252 1,123, 252 1,123, 252 2011 1,105,505 1,109,118 1,111,141 2012 1,086,856 1,094,403 1,098,654 2013 1,066,695 1,078,563 1,085,329 2014 1,045,049 1,061,608 1,071,170 2015 1,030,986 1,052,177 1,064,573 2016 1,015,917 1,041,931 1,057,339 2017 1,009,318 1,039,775 1,058,049 2018 1,002,146 1,037,085 1,058,313 2019 994,403 1,033,859 1,058,131 2020 986,087 1,030,098 1,057,502 2021 977,199 1,025,802 1,056,428 2022 967,738 1,020,971 1,054,909 2023 957,704 1,015,606 1,052,944 2024 947,097 1,009,707 1,050,534 2025 935,917 1,003,274 1,047,680 2026 924,162 996,307 1,044,380 2027 911,834 988,806 1,040,637 2028 898,932 980,772 1,036,449 2029 885,455 972,205 1,031,817 2030 871,404 963,104 1,026,742 %Change (2003 -2030) - 17.34% -8.64% -2.61% Net Change (2003 -2030 - 182,811 -91,111 - 27,474 Tonnes) 18 GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION ACTIONS INTRODUCTION Reductions will be subdivided into five categories: I. Waste Management II. Local Energy III. Transportation IV. The Built Environment V. Other Reductions Each section will begin with an introduction summarizing the type of GHG reduction opportunities available in Dubuque, followed by a summary table of specific GHG reductions#. Following the summary table are brief narratives providing background on each reduction, including a brief description of how GHG reductions were calculated as well as any immediate benefits the community will receive. Notably, most of these potential reductions are either already underway, under consideration in Dubuque, or could be implemented in a short time span. As such, it is feasible that all of these opportunities could be in progress within the next five years and fully implemented within 10 years. Finally, this plan is not intended to present a binding set of recommendations, nor is it an exhaustive account of the GHG reduction opportunities available to Dubuque. There are many possible paths to reaching 50% by 2030, and we cannot know what unforeseen GHG reduction opportunities will emerge over the next 20 years. The purpose of this plan is to illustrate that we can reach 50% reduction by 2030 using only actions that are already available to us. And in the vast majority of cases, those options are already in various phases of consideration, planning, or implementation in Dubuque, making 50% by 2030 a quite feasible goal (see Scenarios: Feasibility section). Note The summary tables for each individual section include estimates from the mid -range emissions scenario only (see Emissions Trends section, above) Total Reductions, however, includes estimates from all emissions scenarios 19 Waste Management Waste creates GHG emissions in two ways (1) Directly through the decomposition of organic materials (e g food, plant material, paper), which produces methane gas, methane is a potent GHG with over 21 -times the global warming potential of CO2 (2) Indirectly through the loss of embodied energy in goods and materials If we can re -use, recycle, or reduce our consumptions of those materials, we can eliminate or retain the energy used to make them rather then burying it at the bottom of a landfill The Dubuque Metropolitan .Area Solid Waste Agency (DMASWA) operates the Dubuque Metropolitan Landfill, which manages solid waste for Dubuque and some surrounding areas There are several opportunities at DMASWA to reduce both direct and indirect GHG emissions A Existing methane emissions can be captured and burned to reduce their global warming potential and/or to generate power DMASWA is currently capturing and flaring its methane, and is considering using its gas- capture infrastructure to create a landfill- gas -to- energy power generation facility A The amount of methane emitted by the landfill can be reduced by minimizing the amount of organic material (e g food waste and plant material) being buried there There are several options for doing this, including composting food scraps at the landfill itself, contracting with a private hauler to compost off site, or instituting a city -wide program to flush food waste down "In- sink - erator" sink disposals and then harvest the resulting methane emissions at Dubuque's Water Pollution Control Plant facility A The amount of "embodied energy" being buried at the landfill can be reduced through various programs to divert high -value discards from the landfill Table 6 Waste - related GHG reductions( tonnes COiefy ear by2030) "TBA" calculations await confirmation byEPA 20 2030 Reduction Status DMAWA methane capture CHP (onsite power gen ) DMASWA Methane flanng or 59,105 Planned 22,422 In progress 50% waste diversion TBA Under consideration Food Scrap Diversion 10% Foodscrap diversion (with methane capture) 10% Foodscrap diversion (no methane capture) 80% Food scrap diversion (private hauler, methane capture) 80% Food scrap diversion (private hauler, no methane capture) lnsinkerator diversion with rturbine at WPCP TBA Under consideration TBA Under consideration or TBA Under consideration 7,495 Under consideration TBA Under consideration Subtotal 66,600 20 Discussion - Waste Management I DM 1Si[1 Methane Flaring Capture CHP II. 50% Waste Diversion III. Food Scrap Diversion I. DMASW 1 methane flaring /capture CHP In 2010 the Dubuque Metropolitan Area Solid Waste Agency (Dlv1ASWA) completed installation of a landfill gas collection system and began flaring the captured methane. The landfill gas collection system is expected to capture about 75° o of the total emissions from the landfill. The flaring process essentially burns methane gas to convert it to CO2 and water. Methane has over 21 -times more global warning potential than CO2, so burning it significantly reduces the climate impact of the landfill and gives us significant "bang for our buck" in reducing GHG emissions. CO2 emissions from the flaring process are biogenic and are thus considered carbon neutral. Flaring alone will result in an estimated reduction of 50.000 tonnes CO2e per year. In 2007. Dubuque commissioned a study from Cornerstone Environmental Group. LLC, which identified the potential for a 2 MW Combined Heat and Power (CHP) landfill- gas -to- energy facility. This facility would capture methane and burn it to create enough energy to power well over 1.000 homes. CHP facilities are power generators that produce electricity and also utilize the resulting waste heat, which can then be used in surrounding buildings. The D1\IASWA facility would have the potential to generate 13.300.000 kWh of electricity and approximately 9.550 Therms of waste heat that could be captured and utilized in nearby facilities. The landfill -to -gas option will produce enough electricity to offset 13.318 tonne CO2e reduction annually. Combined with the 50.000 tonnes prevented by burning the methane (see above), this would yield a total reduction of 63.318 tonnes CO2e annually. This represents a significant share of the community's GHG emissions. However, energy is a valuable commodity and the project would yield significant economic benefits as well. Based on estimates from the Cornerstone study, the landfill- gas -to- energy project would yield a very high rate of return, with a net present value of approximately $1.909.431. II. 50% Waste Diversion The amount of embodied energy buried at the landfill can be reduced through various programs to divert high -value discards from permanent burial. Recycling more and wasting less is one of the fastest, cheapest, and most effective strategies available to local governments to reduce GHG emissions. In 2009, Huls Environmental Management was contracted by Dlv1ASWA to develop a plan to divert 50 °o of the approximately 100.000 tons /year buried at the landfill. Huls produced an implementation strategy that could enable Dlv1ASWAto reach the 50 °o goal within five years. The implementation strategy discussed the potential for sustained revenue from recovery /reuse of high value discards. For instance, high value goods such as construction debris can be collected and marketed in a "resource recovery park." Organic waste can be converted to high -grade compost and sold at a premium rate to retail and commercial markets. These and other revenue streams, in addition to the avoided costs of waste burial, would offset a large portion of the initial investment in diversion operations and facilities. In all. Huls estimated that their recommendations could be fully implemented for $8.8 million and yield annual costs savings and revenue of nearly $3 million, which could translate to significant long term savings for landfill users. Also. 50 °o (or more) waste diversion could help ensure the long terns viability of Dubuque's landfill, not to mention minimizing the inefficient wasting 21 of materials that still have useful life and value. Also, greater waste diversion will lead to fewer hazardous materials entering the landfill, which will minimize the cost and challenge of long term management of the site. GHG reductions from 50 °o waste diversion were calculated based on 2009 waste composition data from DMASWA and the EPA's WARM model. Results will be forthcoming when EPA has confirmed the results of our models. III Food Scrap Diversion When organic materials, such as food and plant material, are buried in the oxygen free environment beneath a landfill, they undergo anaerobic decomposition (as opposed to aerobic decomposition in an environment with oxygen), which produces methane gas as a byproduct. Methane is a potent GHG with over 21 -times the global warming potential of CO2. Diverting organic materials cm prevent these methane emissions from occurring, thus reducing landfill GHG emissions. Diversion can take several forms. The waste can be composted, which both prevents much of the methane emissions and can yield high quality compost for sale to horticultural and commercial/retail landscaping markets. The waste can also be concentrated in a single area and allowed to undergo anaerobic decomposition, with the resulting methane emissions burned to create energy and eliminate the methane's climate impact. Dubuque has the capacity to pursue either of those options. The Huls Environmental Management report (see 50% haste Diversion. above) discussed various strategies to phase -in an organics recovery system that could collect up to 30.000 tons /year of organics. These could be turned into valuable high -grade compost at an on -site composting facility or off -site through a contracted private hauler. Organic waste could also be integrated into the Water Pollution Control Plant's (WPCP) anaerobic digesters, boosting the methane- gas -to- energy capacity at the WPCP. In the case of the WPCP, food scraps either could be hauled to the digesters or via individual households diverting food waste directly to WPCP using in -home "In- sink- erator" disposals (see Butit Enwronment section for more details on WPCP). GHG reductions from various levels of food scrap diversion with and without methane capture were calculated based on 2009 waste composition data from DMASWA and the EPA's WARM model. Results will be forthcoming when EPA has confirmed the results of our models. 22 Local Energy There are two aspects to GHG reduction reducing the amount of energy consumed, and reducing the GHGs produced during the generation of that energy This section focuses on local opportunities for generation of clean, renewable energy in Dubuque (Table 7) For additional local power generation opportunities, see the discussions of methane- gas -to- energy projects in the sections Waste Management and Built Environment WPCP Around 75% of the electricity generated m Iowa comes from coal Dubuque itself is the site of Alliant Energy's Dubuque Generating Station coal plant, which has been m operation since the early 1900s years and is the 6t oldest coal plant in the entire country, though it is currently scheduled to be shut down m 2015 and used mostly during periods of peak demand in the interim So, any power we generate locally from renewable energy will offset coal- generated power, improve air quality, and reduce GHG emissions Notably, the reductions discussed in this section only represent existing opportunities for renewable energy in Dubuque and are based solely on current market conditions and projections However, renewable technologies are undeniably gaining national momentum and rapidly improving in cost and efficiency There is little doubt that the growth of renewables will continue and significant local opportunities will arise over the next 20 years .As such, probably more than any other section of this report, these numbers should be considered conservative We focus on large scale commercial opportunities for renewable energy in Dubuque because they are typically the largest- impact projects However, by no means do we discount the potential for resiclential appli cations of renewable energy Homeowners already have many economically attractive options for adding renewable energy to their homes, particularly solar hot water heaters and ground source heat pumps As solar photovoltaics (PV) continue to fall rapidly in cost and improve in efficiency, we also expect those technologies to become relatively commonplace on new and existing homes and commercial buildings Also, Alliant Energy's 2' Nature and Maquoketa Valley's Watts Green programs empowers homeowners to invest directly in large -scale renewables through their utility bills Table 7 Local energy-related GHG reductions (tonnes COrelyear by 2030) 75% of available wood waste is assumed for both Wood Waste CHP andBiochar Gray boxes are approximate estimates (see Appendix A) 23 2030 Reduction Status Wood Waste CHP $40/ton wood $70/ton wood or 105,980 Under consideration 162,542 Under consideration Combined Heat and Blocher $40/ton wood $70/ton wood °f 40,793 New proposal 88,475 New proposal Solar 8,160 In progress GSHPs 3,444 In progress Property tax incentives `100s New proposal 2nd Nature/Watts Green 161 In progress Subtotal 174,407 23 Discussion I. hood haste CHP IL Com bzned Heat and Biochar III. Solar PP2is Ii: Ground Source Heat Pumps i s Renewable Energy Property Tax Exemption i7. Second Nature Watts Green 1. Wood Waste CHP A 2008 study from the Midwest CHP Application Center at the University of Illinois — Chicago (Haefke 2008) studied the availability of wood waste from forestry residue. mill waste. and clean urban wood waste within 50 and 100 miles of Dubuque (using only Iowa counties not counting surrounding states). This wood waste could be used in a combined heat and power (CHP) facility that could generate a significant amount of energy. CHP facilities are power generators that both produce electricity and utilize the resulting waste heat in surrounding buildings. If the facility pays $40 per dry ton of wood. available wood waste could power up to a 27.6 MW facility. At $70 per dry ton. available wood waste could power up to a 43 MW facility. The 2008 study also estimated that this capacity would roughly double if wood from adjacent states were accounted for. We conservatively assumed a facility equipped to utilize 7500 of currently available wood waste from Iowa only, yielding annual reductions of 105.980 tonnes at $40 /ton wood and 162.542 tonnes at $70 /ton wood in 2030. This recommendation assumes that only wood haste would be utilized in the facility, and that whole trees would not be used as a supplement or substitute. Harvesting whole trees for biomass energy is not recommended from the standpoint of GHG emissions (see bzogemc in glossary for explanation of carbon debt) or long tens forest health and productivity. Because combustion of biomass is a major potential contributor to black carbon emissions. proper emissions controls will be necessary in order to maximize GHG reductions and ensure healthy air quality. Sustainable forestry practices should also be emphasized in the acquisition of wood waste. as should any emissions resulting from the transport of wood waste from source to facility. 11. Combined Heat and Biochar Biochar provides an alternative use for available wood waste in the Dubuque area (see hood Waste CHP). Biochar is created through a process known as pyrolysis, which is the thermal decomposition of organic matter in an oxygen -free environment. Pyrolysis produces liquid and gas products know as syngas and bio -oil, which can both be used for heat and power to displace fossil fuels. The process also leaves a type of charcoal known as biochar. The residual biochar has market value as an amendment for degraded soils. improving soil structure and turning them into the much coveted "terra pretta." Latin for black earth (see image below). 24 Nutrient poor soil left) and same soil type transformed into a fertile "tena inetta" soil (nght) The carbon m biochar is in a highly stable, biologically unavailable form In other words, biochar essentially locks carbon in the soil and sequesters it from the atmosphere When buned, the carbon in biochar is estimated to remain stable for hundreds to thousands of years This can make pyrolysis a carbon negative process, meaning that it takes more carbon out of the atmosphere than it puts into the atmosphere Biochar can be sold as a soil amendment for potting mixes, agricultural soils, or forest soils, and can also be used in other, lower -value applications such as barbecue charcoal It is not appropriate for all soils, but in many cases can significantly improve soil structure and fertility, particularly on degraded soil A wood waste study conducted for Dubuque (Haefke 2008) found that at $401ton there would be approximately 45,987 dry tons of the available mill waste for Dubuque, while at $701ton there would be approximately 70,898 dry tons Mill waste is currently accepted at the DMASWA composting facility free -of- charge, but hauling can be expensive and inconvenient for local mills Syngas and bio -oil byproducts can be used for heating facilities or drying wood, and biochar either can be used directly or _old in bulk for $260 a ton or more, depending on the application (Coleman et al 2010) If used by DMASWA, biochar could significantly increase the quality and price of the the finished compost and would foster a local market for biochar until carbon markets develop and create value for the carbon sequestration properties of biochar Based on a study of the value of pyroloysis products (Coleman et al 2010), waste wood obtainable for $40iton would yield $5,334,443 in annual revenue, while waste wood obtainable for $701ton would yield $8,224,209 in biochar and bio -oil products (assuming 100% of wood waste is utilized, 100% utilization is likely unrealistic but provides a baseline value) This assumes that bio -oil will be used as a replacement heating oil, but several studies suggest that it bnngs much greater revenue as a substitute for petro - chemicals in manufactunng (e g plastics, soaps, cleaning products) If all existing mill residue were utilized in a biochar system, we estimate a COae reduction of 54,390 tonnes per year or 117,967 tonnes per year at $40 and $70, respectively, per ton of wood waste At first glance this may appear lower than the GHG reduction from a Wood Waste CHP system (above) However, unlike Wood Waste CHP, combined heat and biochar (CHB) would sequester a significant amount of carbon and emit far fewer GHGs which, although they are biogenic, still contribute to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations However, because biogenic carbon is technically not counted in GHG inventories, CHB facilities do not yet get "credit" for that sequestration 25 Pyrolysis facilities are highly scalable, meaning that facilities can range from a portable outfit on a small trailer to a significantly larger permanent facility and can easily be expanded with separate modules. This scalability makes it ideal for mobile or on -site application at milling operations and other sources of waste wood. It also means that smaller pilot facilities can be constructed as an initial test of the feasibility and economics of CHB in Dubuque. Available funding through Limestone Bluffs for small scale biomass projects could produce a very rapid return on the initial investment. 111. Solar /PPAs There are several renewable energy businesses in Dubuque, including Eagle Point Solar and Four Seasons Geothermal. Local generation of renewable energy represents a significant opportunity for local businesses. There are many economically attractive commercial-scale solar PV opportunities in Dubuque. For example, restoration projects in historic downtown Dubuque (e.g. the revitalization of the Historic Millwork District) can integrate solar panels into replacement roofs. Doing so could reduce total system installation costs by as much as 30 °0. In addition, current State and Federal incentives favor large scale business applications for solar PV. A renewable energy partner purchase agreement (PPA) is one way that Dubuque businesses can realize immediate savings from renewable energy without incurring risk or taking on responsibility for equipment maintenance. PPAs are set up so that the installer is also the owner of the generating equipment. The owner then sells electricity at a contracted rate to a business or buyer. Financing for the project is built into the contract between the two parties along with a maintenance schedule and insurance. Solar PV systems have a distinct advantage for PPAs because solar panels generate the most electricity in the middle of the day when electricity demand is greatest and energy from the grid is most expensive to purchase. As grid electricity rates continue to rise, local businesses that take advantage of PPAs will save more and more over time because energy from renewable PPAs is sold at a flat, contracted rate. This can remove a significant amount of uncertainty regarding operating costs for businesses. Eagle Point Solar of Dubuque projects that they will install approximately 500 kW /year of solar PV for commercial applications and 100 kW /year of residential solar PV in Dubuque. This is equivalent to twenty 25 kW systems and twenty 5 kW systems per year. We made a conservative projection that they and other solar operators would actually install 75 °o of this amount. We also project that Eagle Point and other renewable operators will install an average of 60 kW of micro -wind and fifteen solar hot water systems per year citywide for the next twenty years. In total, these efforts would yield approximately 8.160 tonnes annual reduction in CO2e by 2030. However, it is notable that the rapidly dropping cost of solar PV suggests that solar will achieve grid parity in the near future and become a relatively commonplace feature on homes and commercial buildings. We based our calculations solely on current plans and market conditions for small scale renewables, so our estimates may prove far too low. IV. Ground Source Heat Pumps Ground Source Heat Pump (GSHP) systems are central heating and cooling systems that pump heat to or from the ground, taking advantage of the relatively constant ground temperature to improve the efficiency and significantly reduce operational costs of conventional heating and cooling systems. Depending on the building and type of system used, a GSHP can save anywhere from 20 -50 °0 of the energy required to heat and cool a building. With recent fluctuations in energy prices. GSHP systems have been gaining popularity as way for homeowners to take control of their energy bills. According to Russ Tell of the Iowa DNR Pnvate hater hell program, approximately 640 of the well permits issued in Dubuque County in 2010 were for GSHP systems. He estimates that at least half of 26 those permits (320) were issued within Dubuque City limits. If this trend continues there will be approximately 1.600 new GSHPs installed in the City of Dubuque by 2015. and we conservatively assume that an additional 2.000 GHSPs will be installed by 2030. If we assume that installers are average residential customers using approximately 840 Therms of natural gas annually, and that a GSHP system will increase efficiency by 20 °0, then these installations will displace 1.444 tonnes CO2e worth by 2015 and 3.444 tonnes /year by 2030. In reality many of the GSHP installations will likely be at commercial sites and yield greater reductions. Also. we assumed heating /cooling demand would only be reduced by 20 °o per system. which is at the low end of the typical range. So actual reductions from GSHPs are likely to be greater than our estimates. V. Renewable Energy Property Tax Exemption This program would provide exemptions from property taxes for certain renewable energy installations. including solar PV, solar thermal (e.g. solar hot water heaters). wind. and ground source heat pumps. In other words. assessors would not add the value of renewable energy systems to the taxable value of a property. This exemption is generally applied to both residential homeowners and commercial /industrial facilities. Iowa Code § 441.21(8) already exempts solar and wind energy systems from state property taxes for five full assessment years and provides local governments with a local option to exempt wind energy systems from local property taxes. Dubuque has yet to enact such a policy, but doing so could enhance the financial incentives of investing in small scale renewable energy systems. With rising conventional energy prices and the falling cost of renewable energy, renewables are poised to grow significantly over the coming years. As such. we estimate that such a policy could yield 100 tonnes of annual CO2e reduction from additional renewable capacity within the next two decades. A policy could be structured in other ways as well. For instance. municipal utility bills could be discounted based on the value of commercial /residential renewable systems. Such a program also has the potential to expand to include all major renewable energy systems (e.g. geothermal) and even certain major home energy efficiency improvements (e.g. Energy Star HVAC systems. window and door installations) in order to facilitate the growth of all effective clean energy and efficiency technologies. This may require changes in current state law. but demand from local governments could catalyze those changes. VI. Second Nature /Watts Green These are voluntary renewable energy purchasing programs offered by Alliant Energy and Maquoketa Valley Cooperative through which customers can purchase a percentage of their power from renewable sources. For more information or to enroll. visit your electricity provider's website or conduct an internet search for "Alliant Second Nature" or "Maquoketa Valley Watts Green." In 2009. Alliant Energy estimated that 398 households in Dubuque were enrolled in 2nd Nature: approximately 200 of those households enrolled between 2007 -2009. for an average of 67 per year (Alliant Energy, personal communication 2010). Conservatively estimating that 50 new households will enroll each year at the 25° o level. this would yield 244 tonnes CO2e reduction per year by 2030. 27 Transportation GHG emissions from transportation are determined by a simple formula: (miles driven) x (emissions /mile). As such, there are really only two ways to reduce GHG emissions from transportation: (1) Reduce the number of vehicle miles traveled (Vlv1Ts): (2) Improve fuel efficiency. There are opportunities for Dubuque to do both (Table 8). It is notable that most of the initiatives described below are already in various stages of planning and implementation. We do not account for such possibilities as electric vehicles or any unforeseen future technological revolutions. Instead, we focus solely on options that Dubuque already has. 1311's There are many strategies for reducing VNITs in Dubuque, all of which are highly complementary. In other words, the strategies are not redundant, but enhance each other like pieces to a puzzle. For instance, complete streets is a planning and design process intended to match the design of roads to the needs of users, thus improving the convenience and efficiency of all modes of travel from commercial vehicles and cars to bicycles and pedestrian traffic. Optimizing the design of the transportation system to create "complete streets" will be facilitated by data from the Smarter City ITS project. These design improvements will occur in tandem with the ongoing upgrade and redesign of the public transit system. The proposed intermodal transportation facility would link these enhanced transportation alternatives in a convenient, central location. The new fuel- efficient bus fleet would reduce the GHG emissions of public transit. The SW Arterial could further reduce travel times and downtown traffic congestion. Unbundling rents from parking will be facilitated by lower dependence on automobiles, and will in turn further increase demand for less expensive modes of travel. All these initiatives combine to provide a safe, convenient, and efficient transportation system where conventional modes of travel (e.g. automobiles) are more efficient to use and less expensive modes of travel (e.g. buses, bicycles, walking) are more accessible and convenient. Fuel Efficiency Fuel efficiency is largely determined by national and international trends in vehicle fuel efficiency. However, there are several opportunities for fuel efficiency improvements in Dubuque. The new fuel efficient bus fleet is a clear example, and installing particle filters on City government- operated heavy duty diesel trucks could significantly reduce local black carbon emissions. Benefits to Dubuque GHG reduction is generally not the primary benefit of improving transportation infrastructure. Enhanced mobility, reduced travel times, reduced congestion, job creation, improved traffic safety, and improved health through better air quality are the major benefits. In most cases. GHG emissions are merely a side benefit of projects that make sense for other reasons. In addition, rising oil prices make it prudent to plan for increased future demand for less expensive modes of travel. 28 Table 8 Transportation related GHG reduchons (tonnes COrefyearby2030) Gray box es are approximate eshmates(see Appendix A) Discussion 1 Complete Streets 11 Bus system transformation 111 Fuel efficient buses IV Southwest Arterial V Dubuque Smarter Qty ITS VI Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Fatality VII Particle falters on Caty vehicles VIII Unbundled parlang I Complete Streets Complete streets is a planning and design process that ensures that the health, safety, and mobility of all transportation users are considered in all phases of road project planning, including motorists, pedestnans, bicyclists, public transit users, commercial vehicles, and people of all ages and abilities Complete streets does not mean "all modes on all roads," nor does it require specific design features like sidewalks, bicycle lanes, or transit stops on any particular street For each project, planners evaluate the current and future needs of all users and design accordingly Complete Streets also does not require immediate reconstruction of our roads, but is implemented dunng regularly scheduled road construction, reconstruction, and maintenance This allows planners and engineers to implement complete streets one project at a time, gradually piecing together a complete transportation network that serves the needs of all users The GHG reduction_ from complete streets are not its primary benefit The main benefit to the community is bringing safe and convenient mobility options to citizens who are poorly served by conventional transportation and struggle every day to reach workplaces, shopping, medical care, and other essential destinations Complete streets also can boost local commerce, help address the obesity crisis, and improve air quality, thereby saving Iowans millions of dollars every year in preventable health care costs and lost work productivity The full anticipated benefits are detailed in Green 29 2030 Status Reduction Complete Streets 18,909 In progress Bus system transformation 376 In progress Fuel efficient buses 1,008 In progress Southwest Arterial 7,762 Planned Dubuque Smarter City ITS 4,591 In progress Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Facility 2,255 Planned Particle filters on City vehicles 861 (not mdodaO in totals) New proposal Decouple rents from parking *100 New proposal Subtotal 35,001 1 Complete Streets 11 Bus system transformation 111 Fuel efficient buses IV Southwest Arterial V Dubuque Smarter Qty ITS VI Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Fatality VII Particle falters on Caty vehicles VIII Unbundled parlang I Complete Streets Complete streets is a planning and design process that ensures that the health, safety, and mobility of all transportation users are considered in all phases of road project planning, including motorists, pedestnans, bicyclists, public transit users, commercial vehicles, and people of all ages and abilities Complete streets does not mean "all modes on all roads," nor does it require specific design features like sidewalks, bicycle lanes, or transit stops on any particular street For each project, planners evaluate the current and future needs of all users and design accordingly Complete Streets also does not require immediate reconstruction of our roads, but is implemented dunng regularly scheduled road construction, reconstruction, and maintenance This allows planners and engineers to implement complete streets one project at a time, gradually piecing together a complete transportation network that serves the needs of all users The GHG reduction_ from complete streets are not its primary benefit The main benefit to the community is bringing safe and convenient mobility options to citizens who are poorly served by conventional transportation and struggle every day to reach workplaces, shopping, medical care, and other essential destinations Complete streets also can boost local commerce, help address the obesity crisis, and improve air quality, thereby saving Iowans millions of dollars every year in preventable health care costs and lost work productivity The full anticipated benefits are detailed in Green 29 Dubuque's 2010 report on complete streets in Dubuque (Schatz 2010). In terms of GHG emissions, according to a 2009 report by the Center for Clean Air Police, policies like complete streets can typically reduce vehicle miles traveled (VNIT) by 10 °0 or more, equivalent to a 19.137 tonnes CO2e per year in 2030 (assuming a 33° o improvement in overall fleet fuel economy from 2009 to 2030). It is notable that this estimate does not account for the effects of probable increases in oil prices over the next 20 years, which could significantly increase the impact (and value) of complete streets in Dubuque. 11. Bus System Rebranding /Redesign In 2009 -2010, the City of Dubuque and ECIA began an initiative to rebrand the former Keyline transit system and improve the design and overall management of routes and operations. The new bus fleet will bear the logo and color scheme of the new "Jule" transit system. Several transit entities have experienced a 30 °o increase in ridership by changing nothing more than the color of their buses (moving away from institutional white and gray), and Dubuque is working to follow suit. The new management strategy goes much deeper than repainting and name - changing, however. Routes and schedules are being carefully redesigned to match the needs of existing and potential riders, which will improve route efficiency, cut costs, increase ridership, and bring bus service to more people who demand it. The remaking of the transit system also includes a new fleet of fuel efficient buses (see below) and the proposed intermodal transportation facility (see below). Side benefits to the rebranding /redesign of the transit system include improved route efficiency, convenient transportation options for those who choose public transit and those who have no choice, reduced roadway congestion, improved air quality, and increased comumerce /labor opportunities as more people can reach workplaces and shopping destinations. Assuming: (1) a single bus trip reduces GHG emissions by 10 lbs CO2 (publictransportation.org): (2) 276.342 trips per year on Keyline (2009 Transit Study): (3) a 30 °0 increase in ridership due to the efforts described above, the GHG impact is estimated at 376 tonnes CO2e per year. This assumes that people riding the bus would otherwise drive the same distance in an average automobile. 111. Fuel Efficient Buses In 2010. ECIA and the City of Dubuque received grants to replace the Keyline (now known as the Jule) bus fleet and equip the new buses with intelligent transportation system (ITS) technology. Through these grants, the City acquired $3.8 million for fleet replacement. The ITS system includes electronic fare boxes (rather than, for instance, punchcards), automated announcement systems, and scheduling and tracking software that will allow transit users to more easily find their routes and track bus arrivals and departures. The buses will consist of clean diesel vehicles that will significantly improve fuel economy and air quality. Based on current ridership, the fleet upgrades will prevent approximately 1.008 tonnes of CO2e emissions per year. However, if the redesign, rebranding, and new management of the Jule bus system increases local demand for transit, these savings will be higher. IV. Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Center The Dubuque Intermodal Transportation Center (DITC) is a proposed facility that will connect air, rail, bus, automobile, and river traffic at a single integrated transportation hub. Dubuque currently has no facility where all travel and mobility options are linked in the same convenient, central location. For instance, local and interstate bus services, airport shuttle services, long and short term vehicle parking, and boat traffic all require users to travel to different locations across the city, making it extremely cumbersome to effectively move from one mode to another, or even to effectively utilize a single mode (e.g. local buses). This limits demand for alternative transportation modes as well as 30 decreasing the convenience and efficiency of the overall transportation network. The benefits of the facility will increase further if the proposed Amtrak route between Dubuque and Chicago is approved. The proposed facility would be located near the Port of Dubuque. with convenient access to surrounding businesses. tourist attractions. the Historic Millwork District. the Mississippi River. and U.S. Highways 20, 52. 61, and 151. which link Dubuque to other cities while serving as arterials to all parts of the city. Direct benefits include enhanced convenience for all transportation modes. increased parking in the downtown and Port of Dubuque areas. and enhanced tourism and commerce. Other benefits include improved air quality, decreased traffic congestion. and improved transportation safety. Significant numbers of construction related and permanent jobs would also be created. The City of Dubuque anticipates the creation of over 100 jobs and between $100 and $200 million in benefits over the next 30 years. In terms of GHG reduction. the City of Dubuque estimated that over 30 years. 102 tonnes of NOx (289 times the global warming potential of CO2) and 45.088 tonnes of CO2 will be prevented. which equates to 2.255 tonnes CO2e per year. V. Southwest Arterial The Southwest Arterial will be a 6.1 -mile four -lane divided freeway that will provide an alternative route for traffic through southwestern Dubuque. It will connect the Dubuque Technology Park on Dubuque's SW side. the new Dubuque Industrial Center West. and the existing Dubuque Industrial Center on Dubuque's NW side. The Southwest Arterial project will provide an alternate. direct. and efficient route for traffic through southwestern Dubuque. which will avoid the numerous signalized intersections on Hwv 61/151. Hwv 20, and Central Avenue (Hwy 52/3). According to the City of Dubuque's Federal TIGER Grant application. this project is anticipated to save 7.762 tonnes CO2e per year, though the primary benefits of the SW Arterial will be reducing traffic congestion within the city, improving air quality, and reducing travel times. VI. Smarter City ITS The Smarter City Intelligent Transportation Solution (Smarter City ITS) is a partnership between the City of Dubuque and IBM to provide a sophisticated system for analyzing real -time transportation data in order to improve system efficiency by addressing land use. economic development. and transportation planning for a comprehensive transportation network that is less dependent on cars. According to the Federal Tiger Grant application submitted by the City of Dubuque in 2009. when fully implemented the Smarter City ITS technology has the potential to reduce overall transportation emission by 4.591 tonnes CO2e annually. However. GHG reduction is merely a side benefit of this initiative. The primary benefits of Smarter City ITS will be reducing traffic congestion within the city, improving health and air quality, reducing travel times, and improving traffic safety. VII. Particle Filters on City Vehicles Black carbon is essentially "soot" produced by the combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. The majority of black carbon emissions in the US come from diesel engines as well as wood burning stoves and other unfiltered biomass burning. Black carbon has long been regulated for its negative health impacts but has more recently drawn attention for its significant climate impacts. Black carbon has been estimated to be the second largest contributor to climate change (Ramanathan and Carmichael 2008). Unlike greenhouse gases. black carbon warms the air by absorbing incoming solar radiation and converting it directly to heat. It also darkens snow and ice. leading to more rapid melting and significant impacts on polar regions. 31 Unlike CO2, which has an atmospheric lifetime of 100+ years, black carbon lingers in the atmosphere for just a short tine. As such, eliminating black carbon emissions has an immediate impact on the climate and could be the fastest means of slowing climate change in the near future. The EPA has recently enacted regulations that will require Dubuque and other mid -sized U.S. cities to install monitoring systems to better enforce compliance with the Clean Air Act. Although Dubuque does not currently monitor air quality, data from the nearest air quality monitor in Potosi. Wisconsin indicated Plv125 levels of 36.4 and 35.2 for 2007 and 2008 respectively. If the three -year average exceeds 38.4, the area will be designated as not in attainment and the state and local government must develop a plan to improve air quality within tlm-ee years. Inhaling fine particulate matter can trigger heart attacks, strokes, irregular heartbeat and exacerbate asthma and other respiratory ailments. Addressing black carbon will directly decrease particulate smatter concentrations, resulting in significant improvements in public health as well as compliance with Federal air quality standards. For diesel vehicles in particular there are several effective technologies available. Substituting a B20 blend of biodiesel reduces PM emissions by 15 °0. During summer months when temperatures are higher. B100 biodiesel can reduce PM by as much as 70 °0. B100 and B20 will also decrease CO2 emissions by 78 °o and 15 °o respectively (EPA 2002). In addition to the use of cleaner fuels, most diesel engines can be easily and inexpensively retrofitted to reduce emissions. Diesel oxidation catalysts have been in use for over 30 years, can be used on almost any diesel vehicle, and can eliminate 25-50°0 of black carbon emissions. Newer, more efficient diesel particle filters can eliminate over 90°0 of black carbon emissions. The City of Dubuque could retrofit all municipally owned diesel vehicles with particle filters and use a B20 blend of biodiesel to mitigate black carbon emissions. Dubuque has already begun to use clean diesel vehicles in its fleet and is incorporating biodiesel into its fuel mix. If emissions reductions efforts were extended to the entire fleet, the particle filters alone are estimated to yield a 861 tonne per year CO2e reduction. Strictly speaking, this reduction would not "count" toward total reductions because black carbon is not included in Dubuque's GHG inventory. Nonetheless, it does represent a real and significant impact to climate and local air quality. VIII. Unbundled Parking Unpriced parking spaces are typically "bundled" with building costs, meaning that those spaces are automatically included as hidden fees in building purchases or rents. Unbundled parking refers to parking spaces being sold or rented separately according to the occupant's actual needs. For instance, instead of renting an apartment for $1000 per month with two parking spaces at no extra cost, the apartment rent would be $800 and parking spaces could be rented for $100 each. Unbundled parking allows occupants to save money by paying only for the spaces they use and provides financial rewards for reducing parking demand. This system works efficiently only if local officials regulate and /or charge for nearby parking in order to avoid any spillover problems that could result from residents "cheating" the system to avoid paying rents for their actual parking needs. The main benefit of unbundled parking is financial by making parking costs explicit and allowing property owners to pay for parking according to actual need. In terms of GHGs, unbundled parking provides occupants with financial incentives to reduce the number of parking spaces they require and, consequently, the number of vehicles they operate or allow to park for "free" on their property. In turn, this provides incentives for alternative modes of travel that do not require a parking space. It is difficult to predict the precise GHG impact of this action, but we estimate that it would be on the order of 100s of tonnes CO2e per year. 32 The Built Environment The Built Environment is probably the widest ranging category in this report, covering everything from the design of buildings to the planning of the community as a whole (Table 9). The recommendations in this section are divided into three major categories: (1) Waste water treatment. (2) Energy savings and efficiency, and (3) Community planning and development. Waste fluter Treatment GHG reductions from Dubuque's water waste treatment infrastructure will result from the ongoing replacement of Dubuque's existing incineration -based sewage treatment with an anaerobic digestion system, scheduled for completion in 2014. The anaerobic digestion system also has the potential to host a combined heat and power (CHP) facility to capture methane emissions and burn them for electricity as well as heat for nearby facilities. Energy Savings & Efficiency ECEA's Petal Project is an award - winning voluntary green - business - certification program which provides clear standards and technical assistance to businesses looking to reduce their energy consumption and improve the sustainability of their business model. The 7th Power Sustainability /Dubuque School partnership is an ongoing and very successful initiative, saving local schools over $200.000 in the 2009 -2010 school year alone. The IBM Smarter City initiative is a partnership between Dubuque and IBM to enable homeowners to identify inefficient or unintended use of water and energy. IECC building standards are an ever - improving set of standards for energy efficiency in the design and construction of new residential and commercial buildings, while the LEED for Existing Buildings program from the U.S. Green Building Council offers energy efficiency opportunities to existing facilities. P.A.C.E. is a framework for mitigating the high up -front costs of commercial and residential efficiency improvements, and there are various Federal and State incentives to help businesses and homeowners save energy and improve bottom lines. Put together, these programs bring energy efficiency opportunities to many different sectors of the community. Community Planning and Development Dubuque's Unified Development Code (UDC) was created in 2009 to provide guidance and standards for planning and development in Dubuque. The UDC contains many guidelines to facilitate GHG reduction in Dubuque, ranging from small scale renewable energy projects, to encouraging mixed use neighborhoods, to reducing VMTs. An infill development policy could provide additional opportunities to maximize urban design efficiency while taking advantage of existing local infrastructure. 33 Table 9 Built environment - relatedGHG reductions (tonnes COre/yearby2030) Gray boxes are approximate estimates (see Appendix A) 34 2030 Reduction Status ECIA Petal Project 15,573 In progress WPCP Anaerobic digestion upgrade Methane capture 791 2,653 In progress In progress 7" Power Sustainability/Dubuque School Partnership 1,035 In progress IBM Smarter City Pilot Citywide 2,271 51,760 In progress Planned IECC Standards Residential Commercial 20,610 28,127 In progress In progress US Green Building Council LEED fui existing buildings `1,000s In progress PACE (or similar) 2,922 New proposal State /Federal programs *100s In progress Dubuque UDC 1,000s In progress Infill Development 1,000s New proposal Subtotal 128,842 Discussion I. ii PCP Anaerohnc Digestion II. ii PCPAlethane Capture III. ECL 1 Petal Project IV. 'Power Sustmnabilhtj• Dubuque School Partnership is IBAI Smarter Cntj• Initiative 17. IECC Budding Standards 171. US Green Budding Council - LEED for Existing Buildings 1711. P.A.C.E. LI: State and Federal Incentives X. Dubuque UDC .II. Infi11 Development 1. WPCP Anaerobic Digestion Dubuque's Water Pollution Control Plant (WPCP) is a secondary wastewater treatment facility responsible for treating and disposing of the community's sewage and wastewater. The current facility was designed in the 1970s, upgraded in the early 1990s, and in the most recent review proved insufficient to continue to meet Dubuque's growing needs. Various options were considered for replacing the existing facility before the City settled on anaerobic digestion as the best option to meet Dubuque's needs for the next 20 years and beyond. This upgrade is scheduled for completion in 2014. In a presentation given by Strand Consultants in February 2008, it was indicated that the transition from waste incineration to anaerobic digestion (with land application) would reduce electricity by 928.172 kWh /year and fuel oil consumption by 16.972 gal /year, equivalent to approximately 3.688 tonnes CO2e per year. 11. WPCP Methane Capture Anaerobic digestion at the WPCP will produce methane, an odorless GHG that can be captured and buried for energy. If methane from the WPCP were utilized in a co- generation system, that system could meet the WPCP's heat and power requirements and reduce the facility's total GHG emissions by a total of 1.188 tonnes of CO2e. With the continued rise in fuel and energy costs, these combined upgrades could significantly reduce annual operating costs by up to an estimated $750.000 per year. The amount of methane captured by the facility could be increased by instituting a city -wide program to flush certain food waste down "In- sink - orator" sink disposals and harvesting the methane emissions resulting from food decomposition (see ii rite Management section for more details). 111. ECIA Petal Project The Petal Project is a voluntary green business certification program developed and administered by ECIA. The Petal Project provides businesses with a clear sustainability framework and technical assistance to improve the environment and the bottom line. The Petal Project covers a broad spectrum of environmental impacts, including a strong energy savings component that relies on the EPA's Energy Star standards for energy efficient workplaces. The Petal Project began in 2010, and within the first year ten major local businesses and institutions became the first participants. The program is seeking 11 more businesses in 2011 and will continue to expand its efforts each year while continuing to re- certify and advise existing Petal Project participants. This effort will require strong partnerships between Sustainable Dubuque, the Dubuque 35 Chamber of Commerce. Dubuque 2.0, and other organizations to promote and support the Petal Project. In particular, a city -wide awareness and education campaign to encourage consumers to patronize certified businesses could facilitate the rapid expansion of the program. The primary benefits of the program are to the bottom line, image, and work environment of the businesses themselves. GHG reduction is a secondary (but substantial) benefit of the Petal Project. We estimate that the Petal Project will yield 15.573 tonnes CO2e reduction by 2030. This assumes that 1 in 10 businesses in the commercial and industrial sectors will attain Petal Project certification over the next 20 years and that certified businesses on average will decrease their electricity and natural gas use by 20 °o and 10 °0, respectively. IV. r Power Sustainability /Dubuque School Partnership The partnership between 7th Power Sustainable. LLC and Dubuque community schools works to cut energy use and utility costs through a variety of simple operational and energy efficiency solutions. According to Mark Henning of 7th Power Sustainable, the Dubuque Community School District has achieved 11 °o energy reduction in the 2009 -10 school year compared to the previous two years, saving more than $212.600. The next goal is to achieve a 25 to 30°0 reduction in the next three to five years. According to projections provided by Mark Henning, anticipated reductions achieved by 2013 will yield total average annual reductions of approximately 1.035 tonnes CO2e and hundreds of thousands of dollars per year in utility savings. V. IBM Smarter City Pilot The Smarter City pilot is a partnership between the City of Dubuque and IBM to develop smart metering and information systems that will enable homeowners to identify inefficient or unintended use of water and energy. The pilot project of 1.000 homes includes information for water, transportation, and electricity . In an application for the EPA's Showcase Communities Grant (submitted on 7/19/10), the City of Dubuque projected the following reductions as a result of the pilot: 31 tonnes from reduced water use 831 tonnes from reduced vehicle trips: and 1.640 tonnes from reduced electricity use. This equates to an annual reduction of 2.502 tonnes of CO2e. The application also projected that when rolled out to all 60.000 Dubuque residents and 22.800 Dubuque households, this would equate to a reduction of 57.056 tonnes of CO2e annually in Dubuque." The primary benefit to this program is reduced energy losses and utility costs for consumers, in addition to the significant GHG benefits. VI. IECC Residential /Commercial The International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) is a building code standard created by the International Code Council in 2000. It is a model code which can be voluntarily adopted by state and municipal governments to establish minimum design and construction requirements for energy efficiency in new residential or commercial buildings. Every three years the IECC is reviewed by the International Code Council to align with current best practices in the industry. The 2009 IECC contains several major improvements in energy efficiency over the 2006 IECC, which is the current state code of Iowa. The most notable changes are improved duct sealing and efficient lighting requirements. A limited analysis of these changes indicates that a typical owner of a new home will save $245 to $276 per year from these improvements. The City of Dubuque Building Services Department has consistently adopted new versions of the IECC within one year of their release. Over the last ten years Dubuque has averaged 175 new residential building per year with a relatively stable population around 60.000 people. Based on these trends and the assumption that new versions of the IECC continue to yield proportionate percent 36 increases in building efficiency, residential buildings will save approximately 20.610 tonnes CO2e annually, and commercial buildings (based on national trends) will save approximately 28,127 tonnes CO2e annually by 2030. So although the primary benefit of these standards is in building quality and utility savings for property owners, they also represent a significant GHG reduction for the community. VII. US Green Building Council LEED for Existing Buildings LEED is a U.S. Green Building Council program providing building owners and operators with a concise framework for identifying and implementing practical and proven green building design, constriction, operations, and maintenance solutions. LEED is most prominently applied to new constriction projects, which re -use, recycle, and minimize constriction materials while creating buildings designed to maximize water and energy efficiency, minimize GHG emissions, and improve the indoor environment of the building itself. Examples of LEED certified facilities in Dubuque include the new Hormel Foods processing facility and McGraw -Hill Publishing. The LEED for Existing Buildings program expands the focus of LEED to meet the needs of existing building owners and operators LEED for Existing Buildings addresses cleaning and maintenance issues, recycling programs, exterior and grounds maintenance, weatherization and energy savings. HVAC system upgrades, and other money saving and sustainable operations opportunities. Such opportunities are particularly attractive in the current economic climate, where innovative use and management of existing facilities may be more economically attractive than constructing entirely new facilities. According to Jerry ludelson, author of the book Greening Existing Buildings, existing building upgrades are the fastest growing sector of the green building movement, with over 450 million square feet of buildings signing up for the LEED for Existing Buildings program in 2008 alone. ludelson reports that the LEED program generates more than 50 °o annual cash -on -cash returns for building owners, yielding rapid payback of up front investments. The benefits to this program are both financial and environmental. In terns of GHG emissions, the primary benefits of the program come from energy and materials savings. Based on case studies from other communities and the amount of commnercial /industrial emissions in Dubuque (approx. 600.000 tonnes in 2009), there is potential for major reductions in Dubuque on the order of tens of thousands of tonnes CO2e. Without more specific data, however, and considering the slight overlap with the Petal Project's mission, we make a more conservative estimate of 1.000 of tonnes of CO2 reduction per year, though we note that the true figure could be significantly greater. VIII. P.A. C.E.(or similar private /public financing program) Property Assessed Clean Energy or PACE, is an effective and proven tool for local governments to empower commnunity members to make renewable energy improvements to their homes and property without the burden of upfront costs and delayed returns on investment, which have historically been the biggest barriers to renewable energy and energy efficiency investment. PACE programs have been implemented across the country. In a typical PACE program, cities set up special "clean energy finance districts" capable of issuing low- interest bonds to residential or commercial property owners. Participating property owners use available bond money to pay for renewable energy and energy efficiency improvements. Property owners then pay the loan back through a long -term (15 -20 year) assessment on their property taxes. These programs are generally structured to ensure that: (1) the amount of money property owners save on monthly utility bills from PACE improvements exceeds the amount those property owners pay on their property taxes, thus ensuring a sustained net profit for property owners. (2) payback to the issuing body occurs at a low rate of interest such that when homeowner payback is complete, the assets of the program increase. In other words, both the homeowner and the municipality end up benefiting from the program. Notably. PACE is a strictly voluntary local initiative and imposes 37 no direct cost on those who choose not to participate. The major benefits of this program are to the finances of property owners, though GHG reduction is a significant side benefit. Based on case studies of other cities, a community of Dubuque's size can expect peak participation of 100 homeowners per year, with a total participation over 20 years of approximately 968 homes and average efficiency improvements of 20 °o per project (these calculations also account for expected per capita energy use /emissions trends over the next 20 years). This yields an animal GHG reduction of 2.922 tonnes CO2e by 2030. Notably, these projections include only homeowners and do not account for the significantly greater potential reductions from commercial properties. Current status of PACE Under current Iowa law. PACE programs are prohibited. Also, the program is currently (as of early 2011) still being debated by the Federal Housing Financing Agency (FHFA), which has delayed program implementation nationally. So ACE currently is not available to Dubuque in its most widely implemented form. Nonetheless. PACE or similarly structured programs are likely to continue to gain support and participation across the country. As of this writing. 26 states have allowed PACE and Iowa seems likely to follow suit, pending FHFA approval of PACE programs. If Dubuque has a plan in place, it can implement PACE as soon as it is permitted in Iowa and get a head start on grants and other initial funding sources. IX. State and Federal Incentives There are many State and Federal incentives for efficiency improvements in residential, conmmercial, and government buildings. These incentives help property owners take advantage of the rapid payback periods of efficiency improvements by mitigating the up front costs of those improvements. These incentives will doubtless continue to grow over the next 20 years. We will not detail available State and Federal incentives here, but details can be found at: http: / /www.dsireusa.org /. We estimate conservatively by 2030. State and Federal incentives will reduce GHG emissions by an additional 100 tonnes CO2e per year, though it could be significantly more depending on how incentives and demand evolve over the next 20 years. X. City of Dubuque UDC The City of Dubuque Unified Development Code (UDC) was created in 2009 to provide guidance and standards for planning and development in the Dubuque conmmunity. Dubuque's UDC will advance the long tern sustainability of the community's built environment, which underlies so much of our environmental impact - from transportation and building efficiency to land use and water quality. For instance, studies have found that buildings constitute up to 40 °0 of GHG emissions, while transportation accounts for 21 °o of Dubuque's emissions. That is over 60 °o of Dubuque's GHG emissions affected by development, making smart development one of the most significant components of local sustainability. Dubuque's UDC makes sustainable design the new standard and inefficient conventional development the exception. In terms of economic and social well- being, the code ensures that Dubuque's built environment supports mobility, healthy lifestyles, and economic prosperity by facilitating compact and mixed use development in urban and suburban settings. In terms of environmental sustainability, the code promotes floodplain management BNIPs, healthy urban ecosystems and greenspace, and LID standards for stonmwater management by minimizing the extent and impacts of impervious surfaces, among other advanced design standards. Dubuque's UDC also will have significant impact on GHG emissions. It will clearly reduce vehicle miles traveled and congestion through improved street designs and an emphasis on compact 38 and mixed use development. It also facilitates the development of energy efficiency and small scale renewable energy projects for local residential and commercial properties. There is significant overlap with other reductions discussed in this report (e.g. complete streets), so it is difficult to precisely quantify the annual GHG impact of the UDC. However, given the significant scope of the UDC, we conservatively estimate that the GHG impact will be on the order of 1.000s of tonnes CO2e per year, though it could be much more depending on implementation. XI. Infill Development Infill development policies vary significantly in form and application, but share the common goal of shifting urban growth from outer - suburban and undeveloped peripheral areas to existing central cities, downtowns, and inner suburbs. In other words, the focus of infill is on the development rather than expansion of existing city space. For the past several decades, much of Dubuque's growth has occurred in outlying areas (e.g. new suburbs), requiring the costly expansion and maintenance of city infrastructure to those new areas, including streets, sewers, utilities, schools, emergency medical services, fire protection, and law enforcement. Infill development, on the other hand, shifts growth into established city boundaries, which helps to ensure that development is spread evenly within the city and takes advantage of existing infrastrcture, thus limiting costs to taxpayers. In terms of GHG emissions, infill development cm significantly limit VMTs by encouraging compact development and mixed use neighborhoods with residences, workplaces, shopping facilities, schools, and other daily destinations located closer to one another. Infill also facilitates the revitalization of downtown areas. The Port of Dubuque and Historic Millwork District are two prominent local examples of re- developing existing space and infrastrcture, and are responsible for attracting countless tourists, residents, and investment dollars to Dubuque. Other infill benefits include reducing commute times and improving the efficiency of the transportation network, which will consequently improve local air quality. Infill development complements existing guidelines in the Dubuque UDC (described above), which also works to achieve mixed use and compact development. It is difficult to precisely estimate the GHG reduction of an infill policy. To our knowledge, none of the many communities that have instituted infill development have calculated the GHG impact of their policies. But given the potential impacts on VMTs in Dubuque, we conservatively estimate the GHG impact will be on the order of 1.000s of tonnes CO2e per year by 2030. 39 Other Reductions This section discusses reduction strategies that do not fit neatly into the major categories There are some relatively large opportunities for GHG reduction in this category, including the cool roofs /cool pavement carbon offset opportunity (Table 10) This category also includes R -22 and HFC efngercult emission reduction, which is a national trend to reduce the emission of synthetic, highly potent GHGs Finally, we discuss an assortment of community organizations that provide a wide array of programs for enhancing the sustainability of the Dubuque community Many of these programs will not yield enormous GHG reductions by themselves, but put together they will have a significant impact Table 10 Other GHG reductions (tonnes CO2elyear by2030 Discussion 1 Qty Tree Planting 11 miscellaneous Community Based Efforts 111 Cool Roofs/Cool Pavement 1V R -22 Phaseout and HFC Reduction 1 City Tree Planting Program We assumed that a net of 1,500 new trees will be planted citywide for the next twenty years, and that each tree will sequester approximately 20 kg of CO2 per year By 2030, this will reduce atmosphenc GHGs by approximately 600 tonnes COae per year 11 Miscellaneous Community Based Efforts Several City and community organizations have created sustainability-related programs that will reduce GHG emissions Dubuque 2 0, Sustainable Dubuque, the Four Mounds Energy Center, and Green Dubuque, among others, are creating an array of programs designed to engage, educate, and inspire the community toward more sustainable lifestyles In the past two years alone, these 40 2030 Reduction Status City tree planting 600 In progress Cool roofs /pavement program 1,057 New proposal HFC /R -22 phaseout 11,148 In progress Four Mounds, Dubuque 2 Sustainable Dubuque, Green Dubuque — Miscellaneous initiatives 0 22,296 (2% reduction between all) In progress Subtotal 35.641 Discussion 1 Qty Tree Planting 11 miscellaneous Community Based Efforts 111 Cool Roofs/Cool Pavement 1V R -22 Phaseout and HFC Reduction 1 City Tree Planting Program We assumed that a net of 1,500 new trees will be planted citywide for the next twenty years, and that each tree will sequester approximately 20 kg of CO2 per year By 2030, this will reduce atmosphenc GHGs by approximately 600 tonnes COae per year 11 Miscellaneous Community Based Efforts Several City and community organizations have created sustainability-related programs that will reduce GHG emissions Dubuque 2 0, Sustainable Dubuque, the Four Mounds Energy Center, and Green Dubuque, among others, are creating an array of programs designed to engage, educate, and inspire the community toward more sustainable lifestyles In the past two years alone, these 40 organizations have instituted the following programs, among many others: a Dubuque 2.0 Community Sustainability Game a Green Dubuque 2012 by 2012 program a Green Asset Map a Green Drinks a Four Mounds Energy Center O Energy auditor training O Green Iowa project O Rebate and incentive compilation O CFLs /weatherization materials a Annual Growing Sustainable Communities conference a Informative newsletters, events, websites, and materials a Dubuque CSA promotion program a Etc. (for more information on these and other programs, visit the organizations' respective websites) These organizations are in their infancy vet have already established presence and momentum in the commmunity. It is difficult to project what programs these and other organizations will come up with over the next twenty years, let alone what GHG impacts those programs will have. As such, instead of speculating on the GHG impact of the myriad existing and possible future initiatives, we propose a modest goal of a combined 2 °0 reduction in community emissions between these organizations (i.e. 2 °o beyond what is achieved through the other options discussed in this plan). This amounts to 0.1°0 of additional reductions each year for the next 20 years. 111. Cool Roofs /Cool Pavement Compared to dark colored roofs and blacktop, lighter colored, more reflective roofs and pavement absorb less energy from the sun and decrease the amount of warning on earth's surface. White roofs in particular are widely recognized as one of the simplest, cheapest, and most immediate climate stabilization solutions. White roofs can also save energy by decreasing building temperatures and thus cooling and refrigeration costs during the summer months. Making roofs and pavements less absorptive also can significantly reduce the urban heat island effect (UHI). The UHI is basically the local "island" of elevated temperatures that occurs in urban environments due to absorption of sunlight on dark urban surfaces. Cool roofs /pavement can minimize this effect and reduce heat stress and levels of temperature- sensitive air pollutants (e.g. smog). Cool roofs can be created using, for instance, waste paint or whitewash. New York City. Chicago, and many other cities across the country are implementing cool roof programs. Cool pavement (typically a thin, tough, road -ready coating) also has been used in many cities, particularly for crosswalks, bicycle lanes, and blacktopped parking lots or playground areas where extremely high summertime temperatures often occur. A 2010 study from Berkeley National Laboratory (Menon et al. 2010) indicated that painting or whitewashing 1 m2 of rooftop is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 8.9 kg /yr, while putting a thin "cool pavement" coating on 1 m2 of pavement (e.g. parking lots, playgrounds, driveways, crosswalks, streets, etc.) is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by 2.45 kg /yr. Conservative estimates of the amount of roofed and paved area in Dubuque (17.5° o of the area paved: 12.5 °o roofed, which are half what was estimated in the Berkeley study) indicates that increasing the reflectivity of all roofs and paved surfaces in Dubuque would offset approximately 41 100.000 tonnes /year of CO2 emissions. So there is clearly significant potential for this in Dubuque. For our estimates, we assumed that 1 °0 of roofs and paved areas could be coated in the next 20 years, yielding around 1.000 tonnes CO2e in annual reductions. Focusing on large commercial and industrial buildings using waste paint could be a particularly simple and inexpensive way to achieve this. IV. HFC Refrigerants and R -22 Phaseout HFC refrigerants are synthetic chemicals that often have extraordinarily high global warming potential. Pound for pound, some HFCs have over 10.000 -times the warning potential of CO2. Studies have estimated that HFCs constitute approximately 2 °0 of national GHG emissions in the US, and that this percentage could double by 2050 under a business -as -usual scenario (EPA 200%; Velders et al. 2009). R -22, one of the most common refrigerants in commercial use, is scheduled to be phased out from 2010 -2030 as agreed to in the 1987 Montreal Protocol. This is being done to prevent further degradation of the ozone laver, but it is also expected to have significant climate benefits by substituting substances with a lower GWP than R -22 (and R -23, which is emitted during the production of R -22). In addition, the Federal government is working with European and other North American countries to implement a global framework for reducing HFCs by approximately 50 -70 °o by 2030 (90°0 by 2050). The focus of this framework goes beyond ozone depletion to consider the climate and human health impacts of refrigerants. This phaseout will require little action on the part of Dubuque, though local businesses could help to accelerate this process by joining other corporations in voluntarily adopting alternative refrigerants (e.g. Coca -Cola, McDonalds. PepsiCo, and others in the "Refrigerants. Naturally!" partnership). Given the high number of food and beverage processing, storage, and other industrial facilities in Dubuque, we conservatively assume that national averages apply to Dubuque and that approximately 2 °o of our emissions are constituted by refrigerants. The phaseout of R -22 and other HFCs should therefore yield at least a 50 °o reduction in local refrigerant emissions. More precise estimates cannot be produced without detailed emissions of current refrigerant usage and turnover in Dubuque, so we assume a 1 °o reduction in total emissions by 2030. 42 TOTAL REDUCTIONS SCENARIOS The total GHG reduction we achieve by 2030 depends on two things what we do m Dubuque, and external trends in vehicle and electricity emissions We created three scenarios for different external trends while keeping Dubuque's actions constant The three external emissions scenarios are described in greater detail in the Emassaons Trends section and Appendix A I Low Emissions Scenario, m which current commitments toward renewable energy and vehicle fuel efficiency are met, and the positive trends created by those commitments continue until at least 2025 Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve over 50% reduction by 2030 using the actions described in the plan (Table 11) II Medium Emissions Scenario, in which current commitments toward renewables and vehicle efficiency are met, but improvements beyond that are only moderate, being comparable to trends for the past decades Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve approximately 45% mductaon by 2030 using the actions descnbed in the plan III High Emissions Scenarios, in which current trends and commitments toward renewables and vehicle efficiency are largely met, but improvements beyond those commitments are minimal, often being less than recent trends Under this scenario, Dubuque can achieve approximately 40 % reduction by 2030 using the actions described m the plan Table 11 Total GHG em ssion reductions by2030 (tonnes COrefyear) under three external emissions scenarios External emission scenarios are based on various exishn2 and future trends in vehicle and electricity emissions Sector High- emissions Mid -range Low - emissions Waste 67,322 66,600 65,448 Local energy 185,473 174,407 156,740 Transportation 36,532 35,001 33,561 Built Environment 130,124 128,843 126,797 Other reductions 35,641 35,641 35,641 External trends 27,515 91,084 182,801 Total reductions 482,607 531,576 600,988 Totals High- emissions Mid -range Low - emissions 2003 emissions 1,054,216 1,054,216 1,054,216 2009 emissions 1,114,785 1,114,785 1,114,785 Total reductions (from above) 482,607 531,576 600,988 2030 emissions (estimated) 632,178 583,209 513,797 Percent reduction from 2003 levels 44 776 51 376 43 In summary, estimated reductions range from 40 -51 °o by 2030. Even in the high- emissions scenario, the Dubuque community can still achieve 40 °o reduction by 2030 using only the actions described in this plan. In considering these numbers, remember that the plan only includes actions that are currently available to Dubuque and does not include any additional GHG reduction opportunities that may arise over the next 20 years. It would be surprising indeed if significant new opportunities did not arise over the coming decades, especially considering how much progress Dubuque has made in the past five years alone: the vast majority of the GHG reductions outlined here have arisen in the past five years. Similarly, even the low- emissions external trends scenario is based solely on current commitments and continued trends. It does not account for any future national or state initiatives to boost renewable energy capacity future growth in electric vehicles or public transit, or the development of new technologies. Any of those could occur over the next 20 years, further facilitating 50 °o reduction by 2030. Nonetheless, we chose to err on the conservative side and assume that the bulk of reductions will have to occur locally. 44 FEASIBILITY OF 50% BY 2030 This plan was designed to pnontize existing GHG reductron actions in the Dubuque community And in fact, half of the reductron in this plan consist of actions that are already in progress (31 %) or are finely planned and merely awaiting implementation (19 %), such as the SW Artenal and Intermodal Transportation Facility An additional 32% of proposed reductions have been studied and are under consideration within the community (e g the wood waste CHP system descnbed m the Local Energy section) In total, that is 82% of proposed reductions that are under consideration; planned and awaiting full funding or final approval; or are already occurring in Dubuque Only a small portion of the reduction relies on external trends and proposals newly set out in this plan. In other words, the 50% by 2030 goal will not require revolutionary changes in the community Nonetheless, setting that initial target will help spur local and regional innovation, bnng focus to Dubuque's pursuit of further GHG reduction strategies, and bnng exciting new opportunities to our city New Proposals 1% Fig Percent of total GHG reductions by 2030 (in mid -range external emissions scenario) from external reduction trends, initiatives that are already in progress in Dubuque, initiatives that are already planned or being planned for Dubuque, initiatives that are currently b eing studied and are under consideration, and new opportunities proposed by this plan Where there was overlap in reductions (e g an either -or situation between an action that was planned or anew proposal), the action currently closer to implementation was chosen and included in estimates, while the other was excluded 45 BENEFITS TO DUBUQUE INTRODUCTION As discussed in the previous sections, most of the options presented in this plan yield significant immediate benefits to Dubuque. While GHG reduction is the common thread tying this plan together, it is by no means the only or even main benefit. The vast majority of options in this plan are so- called "no- regret" solutions that are in the community's interest to implement regardless of climate impact. In other words, the primary benefits of most recommendations will be to local Health, Economic Prosperity, and Quality of Life. HEALTH BENEFITS Air Quality Improved air quality is the clearest health benefit of reducing the burning of fossil fuels. Reduced VMTs, improved fuel efficiency, and lower traffic congestion will all bring cleaner air to Dubuque. In addition, any action that reduces energy use also reduces the amount of energy demanded from power plants, leading to less coal burned and cleaner air. This is particularly true because the oldest, dirtiest power plants are typically the ones that are turned off first as energy demand is reduced. For instance, Alliant Energy's Dubuque Generating Station coal plant near downtown Dubuque is one of the oldest and least efficient power plants in the region. As such, it is scheduled to be taken off -line in 2015 and is expected to be used mainly during periods of "peak demand" in the meantime. This should significantly improve local air quality in Dubuque by 2015, and provides an added incentive to conserve energy and avoid "peak demand" until then. There have been concerns in recent years that air quality in Dubuque is nearing unhealthy non - attainment levels, especially in terms of fine particulates that contribute to respiratory ailments and other health problems, so air quality improvements could yield great benefits to local public health. Urban Heat Island Tree planting and the cool roof /pavement program would not only reduce GHGs, but also would reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect in Dubuque. The UHI is basically the local "island" of elevated temperatures that occurs in urban environments due to absorption of sunlight on dark urban surfaces. Dubuque's urban heat island has not been measured, but in other cities average urban temperatures 5 + °F above the surrounding countryside are not uncommon. These higher temperatures can exacerbate heat related hazards, increase levels of temperature sensitive pollutants such as ground level ozone (smog), and increase electricity demand for air conditioning and refrigeration. Tree planting, smart growth planning, and a cool roof /pavement program could help minimize the Dubuque UHI. Additionally, minimizing climate change will also minimize temperature increases in Dubuque. Fitness and Safety An increased emphasis on pedestrian and bicycle travel options will facilitate active transport and recreation in Dubuque, yielding improvements in physical fitness. More compact infrastructure means a more compact coverage area for police, fire fighters, and emergency medical services. Also, more complete streets are safer streets, generally decreasing rates of collisions, injuries, and mortality. 46 ECONOMIC BENEFITS Jobs, Investment, and Economic Prosperity Financially, sustainability has been very good to Dubuque. Since 2005 Dubuque has received over $10 million in grants and local investment because of its pioneering sustainability efforts. IBM, which is bringing an estimated 1.300 jobs to the city, cited Dubuque's sustainability vision as a major factor setting it apart from other candidate cities. In more recent years, however, other communities have begun to match or exceed Dubuque's sustainability efforts, making us less competitive for these limited opportunities. Adopting the 50 °o by 2030 goal will bring Dubuque back to the forefront of local sustainability If the past five years are any guide, being a sustainability leader could be worth tens of millions of dollars and hundreds of jobs over the next twenty years. In terms of jobs. Eagle Point Solar, Four Seasons Geothermal, 7th Power Sustainable, Durant, IBM. Dittmer Recycling, Gronen Restoration, and many other local businesses are either partially or exclusively focused on sustainability and GHG reduction. Such businesses will continue to locate and succeed in Dubuque if we continue to demonstrate our dedication to progress and innovation. Other GHG reduction options will also create jobs and boost local commerce. For instance, the proposed Intermodal Transportation Facility is anticipated to create over 100 jobs and between $100 and $200 million in benefits over the next 30 years. Mixed -use neighborhoods and improved mobility for all sectors of Dubuque's population can bring more people quickly and conveniently to shopping destinations and workplaces, significantly enhancing local commerce and employment. Enhanced local commerce enables employers to hire more workers. These are only a few examples of the tremendous job creation potential of many GHG reduction initiatives. Many of these strategies, such as the Dubuque UDC and inill development, will facilitate the continued revitalization of downtown areas and significantly boost local commerce. The Port of Dubuque and Historic Millwork District are two prominent local examples of inill development responsible for attracting countless tourists, residents, and investment dollars into the community. More generally, any money that Dubuque does not spend on fossil fuels is more likely to stay in the local economy. Simply put. Dubuque does not have any fossil fuel resources to sell, so most of the millions of dollars we spend on fossil fuels are sent out of the city and, for the most part, out of the country. When energy dollars instead are spent on locally generated renewables, or when energy efficiency allows consumers to keep more money in their pockets, that money is much more likely to be spent locally and provide a sustained boost to Dubuque's economy. Savings for Property Owners and Taxpayers These types of savings will come mainly in the form of lower utility bills, reduced transportation costs, and reduced costs of municipal government operations. Numerous energy efficiency opportunities are discussed in the Built Enwronment section. Efficiency can be simply defined as "achieving the same ends with lower costs." As such, the primary benefits of energy efficiency are financial, yielding sustained savings on utility bills for local residents and business owners. Basically, you do not have to pay for energy you do not use. Efficiency improvements typically pay for themselves within a few short years and yield sustained and significant savings over the long term. Up front costs sometimes can be a barrier to efficiency investments, particularly to homeowners and small businesses without a lot of spare capital. Fortunately, existing rebates and incentives help minimize these initial costs, and other options, such as PACE style programs, offer win -win solutions for property owners and municipalities. As one example of the impact of efficiency programs, the partnership between 7th Power Sustainable and the Dubuque Community School District has achieved 11 °o energy reduction in the 2009 -10 school year compared to the previous two years, saving more 47 than $212.600. Energy consumption is expected to drop further to 25 to 30 °o reduction in the next three to five years, which will save many hundreds of thousands per year in school operating costs. Transportation comprises a significant share of household budgets, particularly for lower income families. More efficient transportation networks, viable public transit and active transportation (walking /biking) options, and unbundled parking are just a few of the options that can save Dubuque residents money by facilitating fewer driving miles, less gridlock and congestion, and less need to pay for as many vehicles (or any vehicles) as less expensive travel options continue to develop. The main benefit of unbundled parking is financial by making parking costs explicit for property owners, which allows property owners and renters to pay for only as much parking as they need. Also, parking lots often occupy valuable space, so reducing parking demand can increase local conuncrcc and revenue. The full financial benefits of more a complete transportation network are difficult to predict, but as an example from our neighboring state of Wisconsin, bicycling was responsible for $1.5 billion in animal economic benefits to Wisconsin every year (Grabow et al. 2010), while every dollar invested in public transit yielded $3.61 in benefits for a total of $726 million in benefits in 2004 alone (Wisconsin DOT 2006). Bringing the focus to taxpayers, many of the GHG reduction strategies outlined in this report will significantly reduce local government operating costs. For instant the UDC and, to a grcatcr extent, infill development would focus on the development rather than expansion of the existing city space. For the past several decades, much local growth in Dubuque has occurred in outlying areas (e.g. new suburbs), requiring the costly expansion and maintenance of city infrastructure to those areas, including streets, sewers, utilities, schools, emergency services, fire protection, and law enforcement. Infill development, on the other hand, helps shift growth into established city boundaries. Less infrastructure to build and maintain represents a significant savings to taxpayers. Current annual operating costs at the water pollution control plant include $490.750 for electricity and $262.500 for fuel oil for the incineration process. The conversion from incineration to anaerobic digestion will mitigate the need for fuel oil, and generating on site energy from methane could meet the facility's energy needs, thus reducing annual operating costs by up to $750.000. Fuel and energy costs will no doubt continue to rise over the life of the plant (30+ years), so this renovation will yield an ever - growing reduction in annual operating costs for the City. Similarly, energy generated by methane capture at the DMASWA landfill could generate nearly $1 million per year in sustained revenue once the generator is built. There are also economic benefits from renewable energy. Solar hot water heaters, ground source heat pumps, and certain other renewable energy technologies can pay back upfront costs to homeowners within a few short years and yield sustained savings thereafter. As energy prices continue to rise, local businesses that take advantage of renewable energy PPAs will save an increasing amount of money since energy from renewable PPAs is sold at a flat, contracted rate. In other words, they know exactly how much their energy will cost, which allows businesses to take control of their energy costs and remove uncertainty associated with increasing energy prices. The same basic idea applies to homeowners as well when you purchase a renewable energy system, you know how much it costs, how much energy you will get, and how long that system will last, providing you with control over your long tern energy costs. Health Benefits In general, health benefits are also economic benefits. Better health lowers health care costs, increases worker productivity, and reduces absenteeism at schools and workplaces. The full economic impact of these benefits is beyond the scope of this analysis. However, to provide a sense of how significant these benefits can be, we cite a few numbers from a 2010 Green Dubuque report: The Costs of Incomplete Streets nn Dubuque. 48 Studies have shown that more complete transportation networks increase physical activity and active transportation among residents. If complete streets induced just 1 in 40 current inactive Dubuque residents to meet recommended activity levels, it could save nearly $1 million per year in health care costs and lost work productivity. The air quality improvements from a mere 10 °o citywide reduction in VMTs could be worth over $2 million per year Reduced traffic collision rates could also be worth hundreds of thousands per year Altogether, complete streets alone could save Dubuque residents millions annually in health related costs. Again, these are only the estimated health benefits from a single GHG reduction (complete streets). The full suite of benefits from all aspects of the plan will be far greater. QUALITY OF LIFE BENEFITS Quality of life benefits include many of the air quality, health, and fitness benefits already described. Although we can portray those benefits in economic terms, we should not forget that those dollars and cents represent real people whose health and quality of life is difficult to put a price tag on. For instance, a more complete and efficient transportation system can save Dubuque residents money, but it can also save residents valuable time that might otherwise be spent behind the wheel stuck in traffic. More compact, mixed use neighborhoods will also minimize daily commute times, significantly cutting down on the stress and time spent criss- crossing town. A more complete suite of mobility options also represents a surprisingly significant impact for groups that are traditionally poorly served by conventional transportation systems that favor single passenger automobiles. In Dubuque alone: a 7 °o of residents are aged 12 -15 and rely on others for their often extensive transportation needs • 18°0 of residents are senior citizens, many of whom find driving an increasing inconvenience • 17°0 of residents have a disability • 12 °o belong to low income households (making less than 1.25 -times the poverty level), for whom car ownership, operation, maintenance, and insurance can be significant financial burdens on a limited budget 1 7°0 have no vehicles in their household a Over 7°0 more belong to households with only one vehicle per two or more adults In total, around 50 °o of Dubuque residents fall into at least one of those categories (the individual percentages do not sum to 50 °o because many people belong to more than one category 50 °o accounts for that overlap). Notably, this figure does not include such groups as college students, visitors, or people who would prefer not to drive if given the option. Certainly not everyone among that 50 0o has trouble getting around, but many do, which represents an enormous latent demand for safer, less expensive, and more convenient mobility options. Our street system is a public resource explicitly intended to serve the entire population as best as possible. The transportation options outlined in this plan could help extend mobility to that silent 50°0, all while reaping the substantial economic benefits earlier described. More subtle benefits of GHG reduction include the quality of indoor and outdoor environments. For example, tree planting combined with better urban planning and development will increase green space in Dubuque. In addition, the focus of LEED programs is not just restricted to energy efficiency, but also includes indoor air quality and aesthetics in workplaces in other words, such things as fresher air, more comfortable building temperatures, natural lighting, and other traits that enhance work environments and improve the health, morale, and productivity of employees. 49 SUMMARY GHG reduction may be the conunon thread tying this plan together, but it is by no means the only or even main benefit of this plan. It is difficult to tally all of the benefits Dubuque could reap by implementing a comprehensive GHG reduction plan that prioritizes "no- regret" solutions that are in the community's interest regardless of any GHG reduction they entail. However, the health, economic, and quality of life benefits Dubuque stands to gain are undeniable. This may almost sound too good to be true, but these are real benefits and hard numbers that have been demonstrated again and again in projects elsewhere and right here in Dubuque. The proposals and possibilities outlined in this report certainly will not improve every aspect of life in Dubuque, but they will undoubtedly improve many areas, particularly our health, economy, and quality of life. 50 Table 12 Examples of co- benefits of potential GHG mitigation strategies for the City of Dubuque and their relevance to Dubuque's 11 sustamability principles Co- benefit Economic Prospe rity Social /Cultural Vibrancy Environmental & Ecological Integr'ty Regional Economy Smart Energy Use Resource Management Community Design Green Buildings Healthy Local Food Communty Knowledge Reasonable Mobility Healthy Air aean Water Natrve Rants & Animals Local energy generation capacity x x x x x x x Emphasis on local resources and economy x x x x x x x x x Energy and water use efficiency x x x x x x x x x Fuel economy x x x x x x Expanded transportation infrastructure, including transit, active transportation, & lower congestion x x x x x x x Enhanced City image for visitors, students, businesses, and potential residents x x x x Early start on prospective national GHG reduction requirements x x x x x Cleaner air, water, and soil x x x Reduced risk of climate induced droughts, floods, & extreme weather events x x x x x x Development of healthy local ecosystems and natural areas x x x x Waste minimization, recycling, and reuse x x x x x x x x Improved health and safety x x x x x Showcases Dubuque's commitment to sustainability and engagement wrath global issues x x x Provides sense of community purpose and engagement x 51 REFERENCES Allen, M R , D J Frame, C Huntingford, C D Jones, J A Lowe, M Memshausen, and N Meinshausen 2009 Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne Nature 458 1163 -1166 American Farm Bureau 2008 AFBF weather damaged crop costs top $8 billion Accessed 10 /10 http / /www fb org /codex php ?fuseaction= newsroom newsfocus &year= 2008 &file= nr0625 html Coleman M, Page- Dumroese D, Archuleta J, Badger P, Chung W, Venn T, Loeffler D, Jones G, and McElhgott K 2010 Can portable pyrolysis units make biomass utilization affordable while using bio -char to enhance soil productivity and sequester carbon? USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS -P -61 /Opp Dubuque Community GHG Inventory 2010 Schatz JD and Giannakouros T EIA 2010 Annual energy outlook 2010 with projections to 2035 U S Dept of Energy — Energy Information Administration ENS 2009 Kansas Enacts Renewable Energy Standard, Permits Disputed Coal Plant Accessed 10/10 http / /www ens - newswire com /ens /may200912009 -05 -22 -091 asp EPA 2002 Clean Alternative Fuels Biodiesel factsheet EPA Clean Air Market — Data and Maps Accessed 10 /10 http //cam ddataandm aps epa gov /gdml EPA 2009 Light -duty automotive technology, carbon dioxide emissions, and fuel economy trends 1975 through 2009 http 11www epa govlomslcert/mpglfetrends /420x09001 pdf EPA 2009b 1990 -2007 GHG inventory EPA 2010 EPA and NHTSA finalize historic national program to reduce greenhouse gases and improve fuel economy for cars and trucks EPA - 420 -F -10 -014. Accessed 10 /10. http / /www epa gov /oms /climate /regulations /420f10014 htm EPA & NHTSA 2010 Interim joint technical assessment report Light -duty vehicle greenhouse gas emission standards and corporate average fuel economy standards for model years 2017 -2025 Heavy duty vehicles http 11www epa gov /otaq /climate /regulations /420f10038 htm EPA Showcase Communities Grant Application Submitted by Dubuque, IA 2010 EPRI 2009 Assessment of achievable potential from energy efficiency and demand response programs in the U S (2010- 2030) Electric Power Research Institute Grabow M, Hahn M, Whited M 2010 Valuing bicychng's economic and health impacts in Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Madison 42 pp Haefke C 2008 The Use of Wood Biomass for Distributed Energy Generation in Iowa Midwest CHP Application Center, U of Illinois Chicago Available at http / /www chpcentermw org/pdfs/080717_Haefke2 pdf Hansen, J , Mki Sato, P Kharecha, D Beerling, R Berner, V Masson - Delmotte, M Pagarn, M Raymo, D L Royer, and J C Zachos, 2008 Target atmospheric CO2 Where should humanity aim? 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J., 2, 217 -231 International Energy Agency 2007 World Energy Outlook 2007 IPCC 2007 Pachauri, R K , and Reisinger, A (Eds) Contribution of working groups I, II, and III to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change Kopp, R E and D L Mauzerall 2010 Assessing the climatic benefits of black carbon mitigation Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(26) 11703 -11708 Manomet 2010 Walker, T , P Cardellichio, A Colnes, J Gunn, B Kittler, B Perschel, C Recchia, and D Saah 2010 Biomass sustainabil ty and carbon policy study Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences Meinshausen, M , N Memshausen, W Hare, S C B Raper, K Frieler, R Knutti, D J Frame, and MR Allen 2009 Greenhouse -gas emissions targets for limiting global warming to 2C Nature 458 1158 -1162 Menon et al 2010 Radiative forcing and temperature response to changes in urban albedos and associated CO2 offsets Environmental Research Letters 5 (1) National Renewable Energy Laboratory 2010 Musial, W and B Ram Large -scale offshore wind power m the United States 52 PA Consulting 2009 Focus on Energy Evaluation — Emissions Factors Update PEW 2003 NImtzer, I , J A Leonard, P Schwartz 2003 U S energy scenarios for the 21st century Pew Center on Global Climate Change Ramanathan V and Carmichael G 2(1118 Global and regional climate changes due to black carbon NATURE GEOSCIENCE 221-22 (23 March 2008) Ramanathan, V and Y Feng 2008 On avoiding dangerous anthropogemc interference with the climate system Formidable challenges ahead Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 1 (15 14245-1425(1) Royal Society July 2009 Statement of the coral reef crisis working group meeting The Royal Society of London, The International Programme for the State of the Ocean Schatz, J D 2 (11(1 The Cost of Incomplete Streets in Dubuque, IA Green Dubuque Sokolov, AP, PH Stone, C E Forest, R Pnnn, M C Sarofim, M Webster, S Paltsev, and C A Schlosser 2009 Probabilistic forecast for twenty - first- century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters Journal of Climate 22 5175 -52(14 Union of Concerned Scientists 2 (1(19 Confronting climate change in the U S Midwest Union of Concerned Scientists State renewable energy goals and policies Accessed Oct 2010 http / /www ucsusa org /clean energy /solutions /big _picture_ solutions /state - clean- energy - policies html U S Dept of Energy 2008 2000 Wind Energy by 2 (13(1 Increasing Wind Energy's Contribution to U S Electricity Supply USGCRP 2009 Karl, T R , J M Melillo, and T C Peterson (eds) Global climate change impacts in the United States Cambridge University Press Velders et al 2 (1 (19 PNAS 1 (16 Wisconsin DOT 2006 The socio - economic benefits of transit in Wisconsin Report no (1092 - (15 -14 HDRIHLB Economics Inc 70pp WI Office of the Governor 2007 Governor Doyle Announces New State and Regional Efforts on Energy Independence, Global Warming Accessed 1 (1 /1(1 http / /www wisgov state wi us /joumal media detail asp " locid= 194nd =2588 Winkelman, S , A Bishms, and C Kooshian 2 (1(19 Cost - effective GHG reductions through smart growth and improved transportation choices Center for Clean Au Policy 19pp \VRI2 (11(1 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the United States using existing federal authorities and state action World Resources Institute 53 APPENDIX A - CALCULATIONS AND ASSUMPTIONS BASELINE EMISSIONS TRENDS: 2010 -2030 Energy Demand Trends (electricity and natural gas) According to a 2009 study by the Electric Power Research Institute, energy demand is expected to increase by approximately 1.07% per year between 2010 and 2030 (EPRI 2009). This estimate includes projected business -as -usual improvements in appliance, building, and power plant efficiency but does not include any additional measures or policies such as federal climate policy or focused energy efficiency programs. In order to model future GHG emissions in Dubuque, this 1.07% annual increase was applied to electricity and natural gas consumption in Dubuque between 2009 and 2030. Population was assumed to remain constant. Electricity Emissions Factors The Emissions & Generation Resource Integrated Database (eGRID) is a comprehensive EPA database of electric power systems in the U.S. The eGRID database divides U.S. states into subregions in order to calculate the carbon intensity of electricity (i.e. the amount of carbon released per unit of energy produced), also known as an emission factor for each region. Iowa is contained in the upper - Midwestern MROW subregion, which also includes western Wisconsin, Minnesota, North and South Dakota, Kansas, and a small portion of eastern Montana. Emissions factors are calculated by dividing the power generated by power plants in each region by the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases released by those power plants. The MROW region currently has one of the highest emissions factors in the country due to its heavy reliance on coal and other fossil fuels, with coal providing over 80% of the region's electricity. Due to improvements in the efficiency of the electricity grid, increasing installation of renewable energy, and decommissioning of old coal plants, the national carbon intensity of electricity is widely expected to improve over the 21St century. Estimates of national improvements in carbon intensity of electricity by 2030 range from up to 12 -16% using EIA data (EIA 2010) and 6.25 -37.5% according to a 2003 study from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change (Pew 2003). So emissions factors are clearly expected to decline over the next 20 years. It is probable that the upper Midwest will be able to exceed these projections due to the favorability of upper Midwestern states for wind energy and other renewables. Two recent U.S. government studies have outlined strategies for procuring 20% of the nation's energy from wind by 2030 (US DOE 2008; NREL 2010). The Midwest would be well placed to produce a disproportionate share of this energy. At the state level, several MROW states have announced ambitious goals for renewable energy, including 50% in Iowa, 30% by 2020 for Excel Energy and 25% by 2025 for all other providers in Minnesota, 25% by 2025 in Wisconsin (Governor's goal — current standard is 10% by 2015), and 20% by 2020 in Kansas. North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska have not instated official targets, though both Dakotas have goals of 10% by 2015. However, given wind installation market trends and the fact that the North Dakota, South Dakota, and Kansas are ranked 1St, 4th, and 6th, respectively, in wind energy among all U.S. states, it is highly likely that they will match or exceed the ambitious plans of other MROW states. For Dubuque specifically, the Dubuque Generating Station coal plant has an emissions factor 54 approximately 60 °o higher than the rest of the grid (EPA Air Market 2010). In other words, it emits 60 °o more greenhouse gases per kWh than the grid average. Assuming that the majority of energy from the Dubuque coal plant is used in the city, the emission factor for Dubuque's electricity will be higher than the grid average. Dubuque's coal plant is one of the oldest plants in Iowa and has been operating less and less in recent years. Assuming that these trends continue, electricity emission factors in Dubuque will continue to improve simply because more of its energy will come from the general grid. Vehicle Emissions Trends In all scenarios, a moderate vehicle turnover rate was assumed such that the average age of vehicles on the road will be nine years. In order to simplify calculations, the average fuel efficiency of vehicles on the road in each year was assumed to be the fleet average for new cars nine years earlier. It was also assumed that emissions will improve at a similar rate for heavier duty road vehicles: the EPA has begun the rule-making process to significantly improve fuel efficiency for heavy -duty vehicles starting in model year 2014 (EPA 2010). Vehicle miles traveled (VMTs) were assumed to remain constant for Dubuque between 2009 and 2030. GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY Most assumptions, emissions factors, and methods for the 2003. 2007, and 2009 inventory were taken from ICLEI's LGOP 1.1. Additional notes and assumptions are below. Emissions factors for 2003, 2007, and 2009 inventories For the 2003. 2007, and 2009 inventories, the emission factor for the Dubuque Generating Station (DGS) was 1.328E -03 tonnes CO2e /kWh and the emission factor for the MROW EGRID was 8.31E -04 tonnes CO2 /kWh in 2003 8.08E -04 tonnes CO2e /kWh in 2007, and 7.95E -04 tonnes CO2e /kWh in 2009. The 2003 and 2007 values were derived directly from EPA estimates for our region. The 2009 estimate assumed a modest (- 0.83 °0) annual improvement in emission factors, which is significantly less than improvements that have actually occurred in recent years (PA Consulting 2009). In order to reflect the higher carbon intensity of the DGS, it was assumed that all power from DGS was used in Dubuque and that any electricity use beyond what was generated at DGS was generated by the grid. A weighted emission factor was thus calculated for each of 2003 (1.19E -03). 2007 (1.05E -03), and 2009 (9.04E -04). Vehicle emissions Trends in emission factors for automobiles between 2003 and 2007 were assumed to continue until 2009. 55 UNCERTAINTY The majority of calculated reductions are based on well -known relationships between particular actions, fossil fuel demand, and GHG emissions. The calculated reduction for each estimate represents the mid- point, or most likely, reduction resulting from that action. The most likely' scenario was based primarily on case studies from other communities, the amount of GHGs available to be reduced in each sector of Dubuque (based on Dubuque's 2003. 2007, and 2009 inventories), and estimates from industry and scientific studies on the fossil fuel mitigation /displacement of each action. The approximate uncertainty of each calculation is detailed in Table Al, below. The most uncertain reductions were assigned an order of magnitude (e.g. *100s or *1000s). and emission reductions were conservatively assumed to be the lowest in this range (e.g. if an action was estimated to reduce emissions by some 100s of tonnes per year, then we assumed 100 tonnes of reduction). Only 0.75°0 of emission reductions were calculated in this way however, so although those particular actions have a high uncertainty, they constitute a small share of total reductions. The vast majority of reductions have estimates of "medium' certainty or better. Also, please note that the uncertainty on these highly- uncertain reductions goes both ways, and could be either substantially higher or lower than estimated. A range of estimates for each action can be approximated based on these uncertainties. 56 Table Al Relahve uncertainty ofGHG reductions resulting from each action In general, "very low" corresponds to±l0- 20%, "low" corresponds to 40 -30%, "medium -low" corresponds to 30 -40%, "medium" corresponds to *40 -60%, hgr corresponds to ±2 -3 -tames current estimates, "veryhsgh" corresponds to ±10 -times current. estimates These categones are themselves very approximate, but provide context for the estimates 57 Action Uncertainty Waste WAWA methane capture CHP (onsrte parer gen) very low DMASWA Methane flaring very low 50% waste diversion law Food Scrap Marmon 10% Foodscrap diversion (with methane capture) very lax 10% Foodscrap diversion (no methane capture) very low 80% Food scrap diversion (pnvate hauler methane capture) very lox 80% Food scrap diversion (pnvate hauler no methane capture) very lax Irwnkerator diversion with 3" turbine at WPCP very lax Local Energy Wood Waste GP S40/ton wood low 570/ton wood low Combned t'kat and Blocher S40/ton wood medium S70/ton wood medium Solar medium GSHPs medium Property tax incentives very high Second Nature,Watts Green medium Transportation Complete Streets medium Bus system transformation medium Fuel effiaent buses very low Southwest Artenal medium Dubuque Smarter City ITS medium Dubuque Intermodai Transportation Facility lox- medium Particle filters on City vehicles krw Deoauple rents from parking very t gh Built Environment ECIA Petal Project medium WPCP Anaerobic digestion upgrade very low Methane capture very low 7" Parer SustainabilityiDubuque School Partnership very kw IBM Smarter Qty Pilot low Citywide mecaurn-lagh IECC Standards Residential Commercial medium medium US Green Building Council LEED for existing buildings high PACE (or similar) mrdum StateiFederal programs high Dubuque UDC NO Infill Development high al L 5 City tree planting very low Cool roofsipavement program km-medium HFC/R-22 phaseout km- medium Misc community initiatives medium 57 APPENDIX B: GLOSSARY OF TERMS Albedo — The reflectivity of a surface. High albedo surfaces are more "mirror- like" and tend to reflect solar radiation without absorbing it; examples of high albedo surfaces include ice, snow, and other light colored or shiny surfaces. Low albedo surfaces tend to be darker in color and absorb more solar radiation, converting it to thermal or heat energy. Examples of low albedo surfaces include soot, dark - shingled rooftops, blacktop, plants, and the ocean. Biogenic — GHG emissions from a biological or organic source. For example, if burning wood waste for energy, that burned wood waste will release the same amount of CO2 it absorbed during the lifetime of the tree. As such, the wood waste produces no net emissions and is often considered to be carbon neutral (see below). However, it is notable that certain bioenergy feedstocks, such as trees harvested solely for bioenergy generation, take decades to regrow and reclaim the GHG emissions they released when burned. This creates a temporary (up to 50 years or more) increase in atmospheric carbon concentrations before new trees re- absorb that carbon (Manomet 2010). This temporary increase in GHG concentrations can have significant impacts on climate change by pushing the climate beyond certain thresholds (see tipping points, below) that cannot be undone, even when GHG are eventually drawn back down by regrowing biological stocks. Biomass - Any organic matter derived from plants. Examples include forest wood and wood waste, switchgrass and other grassland perennial plants, and crop residuals. Black carbon - Black carbon is essentially "soot" produced by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass. The majority of black carbon emissions in the U.S. come from diesel engines used for transportation and industrial use as well as wood burning stove and other unfiltered biomass burning. Black carbon has been estimated to be the second largest contributor to climate change, second only to CO2 (Ramanathan and Carmichael 2008). Black carbon has a direct warming effect by absorbing solar radiation and converting it to heat in the atmosphere, as well as an indirect warming effect by decreasing the albedo of snow and ice. Carbon intensity — The amount of CO2 emitted during the production of a unit of energy. For instance, a particular coal plant may emit 2 lbs of CO2 per kWh of electricity; 2lbs /kWh would be the carbon intensity of electricity from that particular plant. This is equivalent to an ernzsszons factor. Carbon negative — A process that results in a net decrease in atmospheric GHGs. In other words, a process that removes more carbon from the atmosphere than it puts into the atmosphere. Carbon neutral — Any energy source or process that absorbs or sequesters the same amount of carbon it releases, yielding no net increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Carbon sequestration — Uptake and storage of carbon. For instance, planting a tree sequesters the carbon comprising its wood and other tissues. Depending on conditions, soils, oceans, and plants can act as carbon sources or carbon sinks Carbon sink — A system that sequesters more carbon than it emits. For instance, prairies act as carbon sinks by sequestering carbon in the soil by producing extensive root systems year after year. If that prairie is plowed and converted to agricultural land, it will often become a carbon sink as the carbon accumulated underground is exposed to the surface, broken down, and emitted to the atmosphere. Oceans, forests, and other natural ecosystems are significant carbon sinks. 58 CO,e - The amount of CO2 that would cause the same amount of warming as a given amount of another greenhouse gas. For example, each molecule of methane (CH4) causes 21 -times more warming than 1 molecule of COz, so 1 tonne of CH4 is equal to 21 tonnes CO2e. ECIA — East Central Intergovernmental Association, an organization of local governmental bodies in Cedar. Clinton. Delaware. Dubuque and Jackson Counties. Provides an advisory and administrative role for local member governments on a wide range of issues. Embodied Energy — The energy required to make any product, bring it to market, and dispose of it. Emission factor - The amount of CO2 emitted during the production of a unit of energy. See carbon zntenszti•. EPA — U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Fossil fuel — Geological deposits of carbon foamed by the burial and decomposition of ancient organisms, including plants, phytoplakton, and zooplankton. So fossil fuels are literally made of decomposed fossils. The age of organisms and resulting fossil fuels ranges from tens- to hundreds -of- millions of years. Fossil fuels includes coal, oil, and natural gas. Greenhouse gas (GHG) — A gas that absorbs and traps heat in the atmosphere. The principle anthropogenic (human generated) greenhouse gases are CO2. CH4, and N20. IPCC — Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. From the IPCC website "[the IPCC] revzeirs and assesses the most recent scientific, techmcal and soczo- econonuc znformatzon produced irorldwzde relevant to the understandzng ofchmate change" The IPCC convenes approximately twice per decade to assess the scientific literature underpinning climate science and produce synthesis reports reflecting this body of knowledge. Working strictly on a voluntary basis, hundreds of leading scientists from across the world prepare the report, and thousands more scientists review their work. The IPCC produced synthesis reports in 1990. 1995. 2001, and 2007. The next report is scheduled for 2014. PPM — Parts per million. For instance, if 1 cup of oil is mixed with 999.999 cups of water, the resulting solution will have an oil concentration of 1 part per million (ppm). Tipping point - A threshold beyond which further changes trigger abrupt and often irreversible consequences for human or natural systems. In other words, once a certain climatic threshold is reached, rapid changes occur that are unlikely or impossible to be reversed. For instance, pushing temperatures beyond certain limits can cause species to become extinct. The cascading effects of losing a keystone species can degrade an entire ecosystem and the services it provides: this is effectively irreversible since the species in question no longer exists. USGCRP —U.S. Global Change Research Program. USGCRP provides "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human- induced and natural processes of global change." VnIT — Vehicle miles traveled. The number of miles traveled by a given vehicle or set of vehicles. 59 APPENDIX C. EMISSIONS BUDGETS AND REDUCTION TARGETS Historically, GHG emissions targets have been framed in terms of percentage cuts by a certain date (e.g. 7% below 1990 levels by 2012, as with the Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement). Other targets have identified a desirable atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (e.g. 350 ppm or 450 ppm). In either case, the ultimate objective has been to limit global average temperature increase to an acceptable level. 2 °C was recently endorsed by the Copenhagen Climate Summit as an ambitious yet feasible target that is moderately likely to prevent the worst -case climate change scenarios. Targets based on percent decreases or specific atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have been important early attempts to organise climate mitigation around tangible, quantifiable goals. However, both types of targets do not address the most accurate predictor of the degree of global warming, which is the total cumulative quantity of greenhouse gases that enters the atmosphere over time. For instance, a target of a certain percentage reduction by a certain date could allow greenhouse gas emissions to rise over the corning decades before reducing emissions rapidly before the target date. This would result in substantially higher total emissions, and hence a greater risk of dangerous climate change, than a policy that encouraged early and steady reductions toward the same target. An alternative approach that more directly addresses cumulative greenhouse gas emissions is the concept of emissions budgeting. An emissions budget identifies the total amount of greenhouse gases that can be emitted over a given time period before a certain amount of warming occurs. Oxford University scientists have found that to have a 75% chance of preventing a temperature increase of more than 2 °C above pre - industrial levels, emissions between 2000 and 2050 must be limited to 1000 gigatonnes, with releases of other greenhouse gases restricted in proportion (Meinenhausen et al. 2009). This has essentially established a carbon budget for humanity for the next 40 years. As discussed above, emissions are cumulative over time, and cumulative emissions determine atmospheric GHG concentrations. As such, reductions in emissions are also cumulative over time, because permanent, systemic emission reductions prevent emissions not only at the time the reductions occur, but also in all subsequent years. For instance, removing a car from the road will prevent the emissions that car would have produced in every subsequent year, not just the year in which it was removed from the road. This again highlights the importance of early action. Given that a carbon budget has been established for the next 40 years, it makes sense to identify and pursue opportunities for savings as early as possible. Any action taken today will have a greater impact on climate change than that same action taken 10 years in the future. Early action therefore is not only more effective at preventing climate change, but reduces the number of future actions necessary to mitigate climate change. 60 Contact the Authors Jason Schatz jasonragreendubuque.org Raki Giannakouros rakiragreendubuque.org 61 October 6, 2011 Dear Mayor Boul and the Dubuque City Council, Thank you for your leadership in building a more sustainable Dubuque. Recognizing the Council's strong support in adopting the 50% by 2030 greenhouse gas reduction target, listing 'clean air attainment' as a top prio rity, and identifying a 'community greenhouse gas reduction plan' as important, Green Dubuque is requesting funding for Phase II of the 50% by 2030 process in the amount of $40,000. Green Dubuque is proud of our work to advance the Mayor and Council's Sustainable Dubuque vision. For the past four years, Green Dubuque has been deeply involved in almost all sustainability pathways including climate action, air and water quality, social equity, transportatio n and mobility, food systems, and waste minimizatio n, among many others. A selection of these efforts includes: Eco Literacy • 50% by 2030 speaker series, website, and public workshops • Moderators at the 2010 Growing Sustainable Communities Conference • Dubuque Sustainable Task Force — Member • Facilitated monthly Green Drinks meeting • Loras College Environmental Ethics Class -- Annual guest lecturer • Organized Moving Planet clean energy event in September 2011 Clean Air • Authored community and municipal Greenhouse Gas and Criteria Air Pollutants Inventories (2003, 2007) • Organized 50% by 2030 Greenhouse Gas Reduction Campaign • Advocated and facilitated initiation of methane management at the DMASWA landfill Reasonable Mobility /Social Equity • Authored analysis of impact of Complete Streets in Dubuque • Conducted Dubuque City Staff training in Complete Streets impacts and principles • Helped draft DMATS and City of Dubuque Complete Streets policies • Annual promotion of Bike to Work Week Smart Resource Us • Advocated extension of curbside food scrap collection through winter months • Facilitated discussion with IDNR regarding expansion of DMASWA food scrap composting program • Advocated co- generation at WPCP • Participated in the Waste Diversion Options Study Roadmap Water Quality • IOWATERvolunteers • Recruited participation in rain garden and rain barrel community pilots • Storm drain labeling -- "Drains to River" 2 years Local Food • Promotion of local food options, including CSAs, Farmers Markets, and other options on greendubuque.or g website • Steering committee of Dubuque Food Co -op • Treasury for Dubuque CSA group Overview of 50% by 2030 Phase II Phase II of 50% by 2030, which is proposed to run from 11/01/11- 09/01/12, will provide the Dubuque community with key tools for achieving the 50% by 2030 target. The focus of the initiative will be identifying and quantifying greenhouse gas reduction opportunities that will also enhance the economic, social/cultural, and envir onmental foundation of Dubuque's sustainability. The project will increase local understanding of Dubuque's greenhouse gas emission trends in light of national trends and local sustainable activities and new projects . In addition, 50% by 2030 Phase II will provide the Dubuque community with a better understanding of ou r local resilience and adaptation in a changing climate. Specifically, we will outline the risks and opportunities ofa climate disruption in the Dubuque area and how the community can minimize the former while maximizing the latter. 50% by 2030 Phase II also will provide specialized technical support to City staff and community partners regarding climate and greenhouse gas related issues. Deliverables ❑ Final Report to City Council: o 2012 review of greenhouse gas reduction opportunities Update current greenhouse gas reduction study to build a comprehensive list of potential strategies. During this process, Green Dubuque will consult and engage extensively with local businesses, experts, and stakeholders to iden tify greenhouse gas reduction opportunities, barriers to implementation, and effe ctive strategies to overcome those barriers, including grant opportunities and financing. - Recalculate estimates to reflect current state of knowledge o Review of community GHG emissions - Inventory calendar year (2009, 2010) - Compare and analyze trends in light of national trends and past/ongoing local action o 2012 review of adaptation opportunities - Initial report of risks and opportunities presented by likely climate scenarios with regards to the local economy, environment, and social/cultural vibrancy - Prioritize strategies to minimize risks and enhance opportunities o 2012 recap of progress - Summary of local reductions completed, ongoing, and planned ❑ Growing a more engaged and knowledgeable community: o Build a community forum for discussing climate related issues - Create and monitor an online forum for discussion, Q &A, local success stories, and general information regarding climate change o Organize interactive /educational events to foster sustainable behavior change - Impacts on local human health systems - Adaptation and preparedness - Personal action ❑ Specialized support to City staff and partner organizations o Technical assistance and analysis for grant writing , press releases, etc. o Management Team and City Green Team training in greenhouse gas reduction approaches o Consultation for private sector partners and stakeholders - Assistance in voluntary carbon reporting - Project specific carbon footprint analysis - Assistance in setting achievable targets and formulating effective reduction plans ❑ Sister City relationships o Build partnerships and "best practices exchange" with local governments throughout the state. Green Dubuque has already been in contact with other Iowa communities, including Des Moines, Cedar Falls, Cedar Rapids, and Indianola, to help them replicate Dubuque's success in local climate action. This is an opportunity to create a statewide movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality, and create jobs as part of a thriving green economy. Phase II of 50% by 2030 will significantly advance several of the City's ongoing goals, including deve loping sustainability metrics and procuring funding and support for sustainability initiatives. In terms of developing sustainability metrics, Green Dubuque will carefully quantify the prospective and ongoing greenhouse gas impact of specific local actions. Greenhouse gas reduction is a common thread running through virtually all aspects of sustainability, including transportation, air and water quality, ecosystem integrity, energy use and efficiency, and urban planning and design. Phase II of 50% by 2030 will provide a common metric linking all of these components,. This will increase understand ing not just the impact of each action individually, but also how they all fit together into the greater whole of Sustainable Dubuque. In terms of funding and support for sustainability initiatives, the 50% by 2030 initiative is a unique local effort that heightens Dubuque's national stature and leadership in local sustainability. Supporting and reporting on the 50% by 2030 initiative will keep Dubuque at the cutting edge of sustainability where we will continue to attract well deserved jobs, funding, and investment. To this end, Green Dubuque will also work closely with City staff and local partners by offering our technical expertise in grant applications and other local initiatives. Green Dubuque is uniquely positioned to complete Phase II of 50% by 2030. Over the past four years, Green Dubuque has: (1) compiled and authored Dubuque's governmental and community-wide greenhouse gas inventories; (2) authored the 50% by 2030 feasibility study outlining potential paths to reduce local emissions; (3) been deeply immersed in sustainability in Dubuque; and (4) buil t contacts and working relationships with City staff, local businesses and organizations, and the hundreds ofcitizens endorsing the 50% by 2030 initiative. These will all be key components of building a comprehensive, carefully quantified, business friendly toolkit for reduci ng Dubuque's greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2030. Thank you for your ongoing commitment to a healthier, more resilient Dubuque. Your strong leadership has made Dubuque an international model of success in sustai nability initiatives and citizen empowerment for medium sized cities. We hope you will consider supporting our efforts. Sincerely, Jason Schatz President, Green Dubuque Inc.