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Work Session - GDDC Skills Gap Analysis Copyright 2014 City of Dubuque Work Session # 1. ITEM TITLE: 5:30 PM- Skills Gap Work Session SUMMARY: Greater Dubuque Development Corporation will conduct a work session on Skills Gap. SUGGESTED DISPOSITION: ATTACHMENTS: Description Type Skills Gap Analysis Fall 2015 Handout Supporting Documentation GREATER DUBUQUE REGION SKILLS GAP ANALYSIS Greater Dubuque INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND In 2014,Greater Dubuque Development Corporation contracted with a P party vendor to develop a regional Skills Gap Analysis to identify both skill and training deficiencies in the local economy.The purpose of the Skills Gap Analysis is to provide economic developers,workforce developers,and educators with information on projected workforce shortages(gaps) and to identify strategies to mitigate these shortages. The data used in that report was from the 2014 3rd quarter data release from Economic Modeling Specialists International (EMSI),a leading provider of historical databases of economic, industry,occupation,demographic,and education completion data. EMSI's primary data sources for this skills gap analysis is the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS). In 2015, Northeast Iowa Community College obtained access to EMSI Analyst through a statewide grant awarded to Iowa's community colleges through the Department of Labor. The College partnered with Greater Dubuque Development Corporation on the implementation of EMSI Analyst and the development of this 2015 Skills Gap Analysis. Like the former report,this reports utilizes EMSI and IPEDS data as primary sources,based on EMSI's 2015 2nd quarter data release. DEFINITIONS I The term "Skills gap' has been used to refer to both: • the available pool of prospective employees compared to the jobs available in a particular occupation,and • the skills and abilities possessed by current or prospective employees compared to the requirements of available jobs For clarity,we'll refer to the first challenge as the"Labor Skills Gap"and the second as the"Technical Skills Gap."This report covers the Labor Skills Gap. Fundamentally,the goal of this report is to answer the following questions: • Which occupations are projected to have the greatest number of openings by 2025 in the region (paying over$16/hr. median wage)? • What is the difference in projected new jobs and projected completions with appropriate labor skills from local institutions of higher education? This analysis contains data for seven counties: HOWARD CRAWFORD RICHIAND SAUK WINNEBHIIX AUAMAI(EE • Jo Daviess, IL • Clayton, IA CHICKASAW - IOWA • Delaware, IA FAYETTE CLAYTON GRANT • Dubuque, IA BREMER • Jackson, IA - NFAVE TE GR • Jones, IA BIACN HAWK AUCHANAN ,DCLAWARE DUBUQUE • Grant,WI - STEPHE JONES JACKSON AA BENTON UNN �- - CARROLL CONTON CEDAR WHITESIDE SHIIX IOWA JOHNSON SCOTT MUSCATINE 2 LABOR MARKET OVERVIEW Dubuque Region Employment Growth Region •• • • • 170,000 169,504 164,352 Dubuque MSA 10.9% 9.5% 160,000 Dubuque Region 6.6% 9.7% 150,000 Iowa 6.1% 10.6% 140,000 128,529 Nation 5.3% 10.3% 130,000 116,093 • •- 120,000 Population 110,000 Region 2005-2015 100,000 Dubuque MSA 7.2% (1.3%) 2015 2024 Dubuque Region 2.2% (2.5%) —Working Age Population —Employment Iowa 5.1% (1.5%) Nation 8.5% 0.1% October 2015 Unemployment by County Earnings per Worker (Median Hourly) 5.0% 4,9% 3.4% MSA 3,T77-3 0% 3.2% 2.9% 2.7% — I Region — • — Iowa Nation Jo Jackson Jones Dubuque Grant Clayton Delaware Nation • .. Daviess Hourly Median Income Explained:Median expresses a "middle"value in a set of data.Average and median can appear the some, but extreme values can skew the data when using average;therefore it poorly represents the majority. For our purposes, median doesn't include the extreme incomes, like chief executives or less-than-minimum wage employees, because neither is representative of the majority of the population's earnings. Employment in the Dubuque MSA is projected to grow by 9.5% over the next ten years, a rate slightly below the projected growth for the region, State of Iowa and the nation. • The Dubuque MSA working age population (age 15 to 69) is projected to decline 1.3%from 2015-2025, while the regional population is projected to decline 2.5% and the State of Iowa 1.5%; nationally, the working age population is projected to remain flat. • The unemployment rate in the region remains significantly below the national rate,Jo Daviess the exception . • The region's median hourly earnings per worker continues to lag behind the nation (19% below) and State of Iowa (8% below). In the Dubuque Region there is a projected decrease of 3% in the working age population from 2015 to 2025, while there is a projected 10% increase in available jobs; this represents approximately 36,000 more available jobs in the region than working age people in 2025. 3 01 AGENDAO600ESTIONS WORKFORCE UPDATE • JUST ASK US �` XII I...' 02SKILLS GAP �' srt 05WELCOME EMSI FALL 2015 _, ANALYSIS X E 1 NEWCOMER SERVICES tit— tdP 114!:n%1:6 d , , ,,,,!,. ,..„.............. ,, . . m m „- ,,, . ...__ :.............. :,.._ - .... , ,, ...- \, ,•• 1 s„,;..(1IA • 03HR ACTION - - � � 2015-2016 RESULTS TO DATE 04Dubuque Works ..� 0A Workforce Initiative 01 AGENDAO600ESTIONS WORKFORCE UPDATE • JUST ASK US �` XII I...' 02SKILLS GAP �' srt 05WELCOME EMSI FALL 2015 _, ANALYSIS X E 1 NEWCOMER SERVICES tit— tdP 114!:n%1:6 d , , ,,,,!,. ,..„.............. ,, . . m m „- ,,, . ...__ :.............. :,.._ - .... , ,, ...- \, ,•• 1 s„,;..(1IA • 03HR ACTION - - � � 2015-2016 RESULTS TO DATE 04Dubuque Works ..� 0A Workforce Initiative .1111 Greater Dubuque DEVELOPMENT CORP. WORKFORCE UPDATE PRESENTED MAY 2, 2016 01 AGENDAO600ESTIONS WORKFORCE UPDATE • JUST ASK US �` XII I...' 02SKILLS GAP �' srt 05WELCOME EMSI FALL 2015 _, ANALYSIS X E 1 NEWCOMER SERVICES tit— tdP 114!:n%1:6 d , , ,,,,!,. ,..„.............. ,, . . m m „- ,,, . ...__ :.............. :,.._ - .... , ,, ...- \, ,•• 1 s„,;..(1IA • 03HR ACTION - - � � 2015-2016 RESULTS TO DATE 04Dubuque Works ..� 0A Workforce Initiative 31AGENDA WOMRCE UPDATE WELCOME Rick Dickinson, Greater Dubuque Development Corporation SKILLS GAP ANALYSIS HR ACTION UPDATE DUBUQUE WORKS UPDATE NEWCOMER SERVICES Kristin Dietzel, Greater Dubuque Development Corporation We understand that recruiting■ e ► lois a • no matter where an employer chooses to do business. reater Dubuque's Workforce Solutions aim to make recruiting EAST 'sand ORE EFFECTIV : in the DUBUQUE REGION than anywhere else in the country. SA1Ui6AP ro e..e.aa..a 02SK1 LIS GAP -...too.f moo ff roJeft foto*. EMS ! FALL 2015 ANALYSIS n, imp L4R M 'KET �UEUIEA MO iii,Malt ,we, '� f �' 1� ' Employment Growth Working Age Population Growth Earnings Per Worker ova NE Mom 1.cg.o.. 2005.2015 2015.2025 Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Ms4 817.08 -GOAL:Whehoa5.Vlhon>ar pwlRted to heirne wcalr,t norrMg mil OY�III It//SR 10.9% 9.5% C' 1e 72% )1.3h6) "rcd��o+openn sW�o�s�n lhe�eg�mra,r„ewEr zlbn,� vene BcclarliZAD t� 1MIBOf — °q',^„' 6.6% 9.7% '... 2.2% (2.5%) �n a @r IMIMat —i_111.191� ICaid 5.1% 10.6% iwra 5.1% (1.556) ,...o .GOALWIut NU*GOerence inpgec,ednewjcLaand nokcneel fro. onops of higheredooat on to1Mthose IOb5' Nato, 5.3% 10.3% nnnoo 8.5% 0.1% toner -20.66 • GOAL: Which occupations are projected to have the greatest number of openings by 2025 in the region (paying over $16/hr. median wage)? • GOAL: What is the difference in projected new jobs and projected completions from local institutions of higher education to fill those jobs? • GOAL: Which occupations are projected to have the greatest number of openings by 2025 in the region (paying over $16/hr. median wage)? • GOAL: What is the difference in projected new jobs and projected completions from local institutions of higher education to fill those jobs? SA1Ui6AP ro e..e.aa..a 02SK1 LIS GAP -...too.f moo ff roJeft foto*. EMS ! FALL 2015 ANALYSIS n, imp L4R M 'KET �UEUIEA MO iii,Malt ,we, '� f �' 1� ' Employment Growth Working Age Population Growth Earnings Per Worker ova NE Mom 1.cg.o.. 2005.2015 2015.2025 Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Ms4 817.08 -GOAL:Whehoa5.Vlhon>ar pwlRted to heirne wcalr,t norrMg mil OY�III It//SR 10.9% 9.5% C' 1e 72% )1.3h6) "rcd��o+openn sW�o�s�n lhe�eg�mra,r„ewEr zlbn,� vene BcclarliZAD t� 1MIBOf — °q',^„' 6.6% 9.7% '... 2.2% (2.5%) �n a @r IMIMat —i_111.191� ICaid 5.1% 10.6% iwra 5.1% (1.556) ,...o .GOALWIut NU*GOerence inpgec,ednewjcLaand nokcneel fro. onops of higheredooat on to1Mthose IOb5' Nato, 5.3% 10.3% nnnoo 8.5% 0.1% toner -20.66 HOWARD CRAWFORD RICHLAND SAUK WINNESHIEK ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW /- IOWA FAYETTE CLAYTON GRANT BREMER • — LAFAYEfTE GR BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN 1 DEbi1NARE �DUBUQUE STEPHE JONES JACKSON 4A BENTON LINN - - CARROLL CLINTON CEDAR WHITESIDE SHIEK IOWA JOHNSON SCOTT MUSCATINE I . Lind 141114L1010 I.. A13J A R :I( [ 1. J V [ nin [ If\ ^°1 f t + * ft ii Employment Growth Working Age Population Growth Earnings Per Worker Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 F MSA $17.08 Dubuque 10.9% 9.5% Dubuque 7,2% (1.3%) 411 MSA MSA ' • Region $17.08 Dubuque 6.6% 9.7% Dubuque 2.2% (2.5%) , , RegionRegion . ■ ■ Iowa 6.1% 10.6% Iowa 5.1% (1.5%) Iowa $18.53 . . . . Nation 5.3% 10.3% Nation 8.5% 0.1% Nation $20.66 GR SII Employment Growth w• orki Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Regio Dubuque 10 . 9% 9 . 5% DubuqL MSA MSA Dubuque � � DubuqL Region 6 . 6 /0 9 . 7 /o Regior Iowa 6 . 1% 10 . 6% Iowa Nation 5 . 3% 10 . 3% Natior + * + * + * nth Working Age Population Growth .0251 Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Dubuque MSA yo Dubuque 7 , 2% (1 . 3%) MSA Region Yo � Dubuque 2 . 2% (2 . 5%) Region Iowa i% Iowa 5 . 1% (1 . 5%) I% Nation 8 . 5% 0 . 1% Nation Dubuque Region 169,504 164,352 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 128, 529 130,000 116,093 120,000 110,000 100,000 2015 2024 Working Age Population Employment + * + * + * nth Working Age Population Growth .0251 Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Dubuque MSA yo Dubuque 7 , 2% (1 . 3%) MSA Region Yo � Dubuque 2 . 2% (2 . 5%) Region Iowa i% Iowa 5 . 1% (1 . 5%) I% Nation 8 . 5% 0 . 1% Nation .r • 1111 u growth Earnings Per Worker •2025 MSA $ 17 .08 3%) Region $ 17 .08 5%) IOWQ $ 18. 53 50/0) 1% Nation $ 20.66 SA1Ui6AP ro e..e.aa..a 02SK1 LIS GAP -...too.f moo ff roJeft foto*. EMS ! FALL 2015 ANALYSIS n, imp L4R M 'KET �UEUIEA MO iii,Malt ,we, '� f �' 1� ' Employment Growth Working Age Population Growth Earnings Per Worker ova NE Mom 1.cg.o.. 2005.2015 2015.2025 Region 2005-2015 2015-2025 Ms4 817.08 -GOAL:Whehoa5.Vlhon>ar pwlRted to heirne wcalr,t norrMg mil OY�III It//SR 10.9% 9.5% C' 1e 72% )1.3h6) "rcd��o+openn sW�o�s�n lhe�eg�mra,r„ewEr zlbn,� vene BcclarliZAD t� 1MIBOf — °q',^„' 6.6% 9.7% '... 2.2% (2.5%) �n a @r IMIMat —i_111.191� ICaid 5.1% 10.6% iwra 5.1% (1.556) ,...o .GOALWIut NU*GOerence inpgec,ednewjcLaand nokcneel fro. onops of higheredooat on to1Mthose IOb5' Nato, 5.3% 10.3% nnnoo 8.5% 0.1% toner -20.66 ScaS GAP : VETHCDJCLI • Top 60 occupations with a Skills Gap greater than 0 • Median hourly earnings > $16.00 per hour • Occupations expected to grow 10 jobs or more • Sorted by largest gap to smallest by occupation • Growth , Replacements, Openings, Graduates and Skills Gap all represent 2015-2025, 10 year estimates 11 ) J AE C4LLLTE A SKILLS LAP ? * EPL4CEYENTS JRING ) OE \ 1 \ S GRAES SKILLS ji ) O OPERATING ENGINEERS AND OTHER CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT OPERATORS © ELECTRICIANS © FIRST-LINE SUPERVISORS OF PRODUCTION AND OPERATING WORKERS 4 FIRST LINE SUPERVISORS OF MECHANICS, INSTALLERS AND REPAIRERS © INSPECTORS, TESTERS, SORTERS, SAMPLERS AND WEIGHERS 6 CARPENTERS O INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY MECHANICS 8 CEMENT MASONS AND CONCRETE FINISHERS 9 DENTAL HYGIENISTS 10 PHARMACISTS Construction Certificates: Carpentry Diploma -Construction Trades Carpentry Certificates: -Construction Equipment Operator -Cabinet Making -Construction Restoration -Finishing Skills -Floor and Framing Skills CDL Training -Foundation Skills Introduction to Electromechanical Technology Certificate Industrial Maintenance AAS, Diploma Certified Production Technician First-Time Supervisory Training (Specific to NORTHEAST IOWA Manufacturing, healthcare etc) COMMUNITY COLLEGE MR ni TIT ITT IIIa4F Employment Growth Working Age Population Groom Earnings Per Worker .... I a,baa.zdosaou.zouaou waw 2005.2015 zou.iou xra ® ripi41------i••--""--•' I:YrRll ameue 10.9. 9.`Jk <Ka?` line (1.3.7 6.94 9.7. « m 2396 25.>_ - rein 6,1% 106. twn 5.l% 11 Stil r krre.m���oml��a` wn. 5... 10.3. ru.,. 8,5+9 1r, '-'"iaau.� 0 ===:. 03 H R ACTION .;....: ........ ,_. 2015- 2016 RESULTSTO DATE r �K ANION ION 03HR ACTION 1 N ENGAGENEiNI •75 minute imtlepth interview on recruitment.retention. .99 Local employers who employ 29.245peop le training and talent development (Slot difficult l—Difficult]) di,I.:;t Ni; •Informs Greater Dubuque:.workforce solutions programming 'Combined hove hired 4.205 employees in the 12 months plot to the interview •HIgh•touch opponuniry to engage employers..roued •i dusuies inclutle lunufacrcineg.Tourism.Insurance G Altace Candidates bong Outside: 4.95 workforce issues and provide 1:1 assistance Pinar/Hal Winces,Edueahon.Construction,Healthcare. Opportunity• to compare mfOAchon CEO parspechve with HR Retail.Publishing,rood Processing.intomwnon Technology. Retain Candidates train Outside: 3.14 Public Service and Private Services. oroles5ronal peispectrve (Daycare Availability: 2.18 H � ilC1I � \ • 75 minute in-depth interview on recruitment, retention, training and talent development • Informs Greater Dubuque's workforce solutions programming • High-touch opportunity to engage employers around workforce issues and provide 1:1 assistance • Opportunity to compare InfoAction CEO perspective with HR professional perspective I E \ G /, GEVE \ - • 99 Local employers who employ 29,245 people • Combined have hired 4,205 employees in the 12 months prior to the interview • Industries include Manufacturing, Tourism, Insurance & Financial Services, Education, Construction, Healthcare, Retail, Publishing, Food Processing, Information Technology, Public Service and Private Services. 03HR ACTION 2016 RESULTS TO DATE (Not difficult 1 ---- Difficult 7) - RiJIf\ G Attract Candidates from Outside : 4 . 95 Retain Candidates from Outside : 3 . 14 Daycare Availability : 2 . 18 28%report that the number of unfilled positions is increasing employ a veteran have diversity.equity and inclusion efforts within their business. Company Investment in Training: •Increasing:49% •Stable:44% •Decreasing:3% 6%said their employees report •None:0% transportation issues 76%hired interns and the majority are paid; 24%expect to increase interns in next 3 years 73%said trailing spouses or me,e intern,.t.• rr reported to be heed on do NOT pose a challenge br Ne cwnpnny folk/oil their interne6y when trying to recruit Top Reasons Employees Leave: Top Reasons Employees Stay: 1.More Money 1.Pay and Benefits 2.Schedule 2."Family-first"culture 3.Better Opportunity to advance 3.Flexibility Top 3 Tactics Used to Recruit: 1.nccessOubuqueJobs.com 2.Networking/Referrals 3.Temp Services 28% report that the number of unfilled positions is increasing 33% have diversity, efforts within their b 3.'. % have diversity, equity and inclusion efforts within their business . 79 % employ a veteran Company Investment in Training : • Increasing : 49 % • Stable : 44% • Decreasing : 3% • None : 0% 6% said their employees report transportation issues 73 % said trailing spouses do NOT pose a challenge when trying to recruit 6' tri 76% hired interns and the majority are paid ; 24% expect to increase interns in next 3 years Of these interns , 10 were reported to be hired on by the company following their internship Top Reasons Employees Leave : 1 . More Money 2 . Schedule 3 . Better Opportunity to advance Top Reasons Employees Stay : 1 . Pay and Benefits 2 . " Family-first" culture 3 . Flexibility Top 3 Tactics Used to Recruit : 1 . AccessDubuqueJobs . com 2 . Networking/ Referrals 3 . Temp Services 01 AGENDAO600ESTIONS WORKFORCE UPDATE • JUST ASK US �` XII I...' 02SKILLS GAP �' srt 05WELCOME EMSI FALL 2015 _, ANALYSIS X E 1 NEWCOMER SERVICES tit— tdP 114!:n%1:6 d , , ,,,,!,. ,..„.............. ,, . . m m „- ,,, . ...__ :.............. :,.._ - .... , ,, ...- \, ,•• 1 s„,;..(1IA • 03HR ACTION - - � � 2015-2016 RESULTS TO DATE 04Dubuque Works ..� 0A Workforce Initiative 1.01.„„„.„ no 10_,... _ 04Dubugue Works o A Initiative Workforce yaub�aoe, kOPOft1UNI11 DUBUQUE OU?REA[N SJ[LESS COALh"_; 0live .".....7"..V...:17:: —. .J16 AtlOmlaemeiie 111%WW1 MemnidtW eel .111 MIMS mW9tA m1neam1.%161%mmuaabelmnlptlna.1 Mann •225 ClalualeS anal Sf In lnae% Dui...tavwnagliaet xIn •Al NNW 711GI of lie F9.lit 4m1911i1n11lu Iran . .21 Mien alt.JWUIDt9 n19t cut Et IIPoIII6Y JIDami or Ora.Wall, CO Ydit. MI.Imt¢1u y rm en11m111(OrtlllJni Cur elucelllr*MOOR millet 0lWIDlllllln .11 9)1101IS are 1nnl%u to will.ler ba Ilan or Irmo fOiurlirr alone x0181 nt.t1111W mmml 11 O11np11rlaul I 1110.1 Ynt •3II6S110Ms MOM le Ile all 0'11 m .tli.rlla.nrnle CO.WINO Ptln:llu rmimmn.Iat.lolln, Tli. In rr.IMMO ma/m.111.n 9'.11l.YaJlWulls.Nnllly labia&on!MOWS tIICIICvl i, ... ...Mut rmtauln.ta dubuque � a workforce initiative Funded in part by the City of Dubuque, Mystique Casino, and the Dubuque County Board of Supervisors. PARTNERS: Greater Dubuque Development Corporation East Central Intergovernmental Association City of Dubuque Holy Family Catholic Schools Community Foundation of Greater Dubuque Iowa Workforce Development Dubuque Area Labor Management Council Northeast Iowa Community College Dubuque Community School District Telegraph Herald Dubuque Area Chamber of Commerce United way of the Tri-States Western Dubuque Community School District : T \ uy Ju3 � t' � E X • 378 Students enrolled [11 % minority by ethnicity/racel • 295 Graduates and 52 in training • 210 Graduates (90%) of the 233 NICC has continued to track were employed or continuing their education within 6 months of completion [12% minority by ethnicity/race] • Certificates include CDL, Certified Production Technician, CNC, Industrial Sewing, Mechatronics, Welding, Information Technology, & Construction X ilS : f 3 . 31 . 16 : TftELcH SUCCESS c : c — * • 112 Students engaged in the community [62 °Io minority by ethnicity/race) • 24 Students are pursuing High School Equivalency Diploma or preparation • 42 Students are enrolled or on waitlist for lob training program • 31 % Students are new to the area AS DF 3 . 31 . 16 5 WE LC NEWCOMER SERVICES ■ 05WELCOME 05WELCOME 2016 STATS TO DATE HR Action Results • 63 Individuals Assisted •aa�io or companies use clearer Dubuaue's Newcomer Services • 38 Personalized lours of the Community •bed new hirpct s have reloto edin to thease area in recent years •1S0/0 expect relocations to increase • 79 Newcomers in 3 Classes of Distinctively Dubuque •460i0 expect relocations to remain staple • 148 Relocation Guides Distributed 05WELCOME 2016 STATS TO DATE • 63 Individuals Assisted • 38 Personalized Tours of the Community • 79 Newcomers in 3 Classes of Distinctively Dubuque • 148 Relocation Guides Distributed I o 05WELCOME HR Action Results • 83 % of companies use Greater Dubuque's Newcomer Services • 684 new hires haus relocated to the area in recent years • 15 % expect relocations to increase • 46% expect relocations to remain stable O6QUE $TIONS JUSrtASKUS! 01 AGENDAO600ESTIONS WORKFORCE UPDATE • JUST ASK US �` XII I...' 02SKILLS GAP �' srt 05WELCOME EMSI FALL 2015 _, ANALYSIS X E 1 NEWCOMER SERVICES tit— tdP 114!:n%1:6 d , , ,,,,!,. ,..„.............. ,, . . m m „- ,,, . ...__ :.............. :,.._ - .... , ,, ...- \, ,•• 1 s„,;..(1IA • 03HR ACTION - - � � 2015-2016 RESULTS TO DATE 04Dubuque Works ..� 0A Workforce Initiative IOGI POPULATIONOVERVIEW Source for Demographic Information from 2005 through 2015: • Micropolitan Statistic l Areas(MSAs)are def in ed by the Office of Manage ment and Budget as urban areas in the United States centered on an urban cluster with a population between 10,000 and 50,000 people. • ANY reference to MSAs are specific to the Dubuque region only. • ALL demographic data is from the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates program and the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey.(See appendix A). �N B�III UBUQ ■20050o0ulabm ■2015000ulw", 22N 20K 18K I6K 14K A12K 10K 8K SK d 4K 2K ON hP y `oe `a �s ys �s Ays �s as �s ys dis de 09 ^ys e" Working Age Population Working Age Population 7 County Region (200 5-2015) e (2005-2015) Age Cohort 2015 Cohort 2015 Cohort Pop. Change %Total Pop Age Cohort Pop. Change %Tota I Pop 15 to 19 15,257 -19% 6% 15 to 19 6,205 -11% 6% 20to24 18,139 3% 7% 20to24 7,175 7% 7% 25to29 13,547 17% 6% 25to29 6,047 21% 6% 30to34 14,477 12% 6% 30to34 6,274 23% 6% 35 to 39 12,900 -12% 5% 35 to 39 5,292 -8% 5% 40to44 12,982 -27% 5% 40to44 5,155 -23% 5% 45 to 49 15,078 -18% 6% 45 to 49 6,018 -12% 6% 50to54 17,762 4% 7% 50to54 6,757 6% 7% 55to59 18,766 27% 8% 55to59 6,990 31% 7% 60to64 17,034 46% 7% 60to64 6,402 55% 7% 65 to 69 13,562 32% 6% 65 to 69 4,883 41% 5% Total 169,504 65% 69% Total 67,198 130% 67% 4 POPULATION BY RACE/ETHNICITY 7 County Region 00 (2005-2015) Race/Ethnicity 2015 % % Race/Ethnicity 2015 % % Pop. Chg. 2015 Pop. Chg. 2015 Total Total Pop) Pop White, Non-Hispanic 231,439 0% 94% White, Non-Hispanic 88,980 3% 92% Black, Non-Hispanic 4,311 72% 2% Black, Non-Hispanic 2,680 84% 3% White, Hispanic 4,243 50% 2% White, Hispanic 1,873 50% 2% Two or More Races, Non- 2,319 49% E Asian, Non-Hispanic 1,259 79% 1% Hispanic Asian, Non-Hispanic 2,062 65% 1% Two or More Races, Non- 1,213 53% 1% Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Pacific 445 82% 0% Native Hawaiian or Pacific 265 55% 0% Islander, Non-Hispanic Islander, Non-Hispanic American Indian or 418 26% 0% American Indian or Alaskan 151 18% 0% Alaskan Native, Non- Native, Non-Hispanic Hispanic Black, Hispanic 198 136% 0% Black, Hispanic 116 127% 0% American Indian or 175 130% 0% Two or More Races, Hispanic 84 71% 0% Alaskan Native, Hispanic Two or More Races, 161 89% 0% American Indian or Alaskan 81 189% 0% Hispanic Native, Hispanic Asian, Hispanic 50 163% 0% Asian, Hispanic 31 182% 0% Native Hawaiian or Pacific 34 183% 0% Native Hawaiian or Pacific 18 100% 0% Islander, Hispanic Islander, Hispanic Total 245,855 100% Total 96,751 99% POPULATION BY GENDER 00 (2005-2015) Population Chg. Total Pop Population Chg. Total Pop Males 124,355 3% 51% Females 48,774 5% 50% Females 121,500 1% 49% Males 47,976 8% 50% Total 245,855 2% 100% Total 96,750 7% 100% 5 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OVERVIEW FOR DUBUQUE 7 COUNTY REGION 02M5PopWl1'M �2OISPopuLnlOn EOMI( JOHN 60MN soMN AGOMN 3OMN 2OMN IOMN OMI( q dO�T (9 P� (2005-2015) - (2005-2015) Education Level r Education Level r Pop. Chg. Pop. Pop. Chg. Pop. <Sth Grade 7,381 -38% 4% <9th Grade 2,445 -38% 4% 9[h- 12th Grade 8,059 9% 5% 9th - 12th Grade 3,196 9% 5% High School Diploma 66,991 2% 40% High School Diploma 23,903 2% 37% Some College 33,167 9% 20% Some College 12,105 9% 19% Associate's Degree 15,687 12% 9% Associate's Degree 5,746 12% 9% Bachelor's Degree 23,690 12% 14% Bachelor's Degree 11,397 12% 18% Graduate and Up 12,422 19% ]% Graduate and Up 6,115 19% 9% Total 167,396 6% 100% Total 64,907 6% 100% 6 SKILL GAPS BY OCCUPATION ORGANIZATIONAL METHOD T All occupations where the 2015 median hourly earnings adjusted to only include an amount>$16/hr. T Openings greater than 10 openings(Openings represents replace mentjobs and BLS employee growth estimates). T Top 60 occupations with a skills gap greater than 0. (Skills gap is the difference between projected openings and graduates. T Sorted by largest skills gap to smallest. T Growth, Replacements,Openings,Graduates,and Skills Gap all represent 2015-2025, 10-year estimates. 2015 2014Trend i2025 Replace- Open- Grad- Skills Median Rank Rank of Description Jobs Jobs Growth ments ings uates Gap Hourly gap Earnings Operating Engineers and 1St 9th '�` Other Construction 497 576 79 121 200 0 200 $21.36 Equipment Operators 2nd 4th �` Electricians 505 599 94 111 205 30 175 $23.18 First-Line Supervisors of 3�d 11th '�` Production and Operating 756 778 22 131 153 0 153 $22.28 Workers First-Line Supervisors of 4th 16th '�` Mechanics, Installers,and 327 364 37 94 131 0 131 $26.05 Repairers ■ 5th — ,r Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, 382 416 34 93 126 0 126 $16.08 Samplers,and Weighers 6th 8th �` Carpenters 639 772 133 93 226 100 126 $19.24 7th 5th Industrial Machinery 494 597 103 159 262 150 112 $21.44 Mechanics 8th 19th ,r Cement Masons and 281 363 82 37 118 10 108 $17.26 Concrete Finishers 9th — '�` Dental Hygienists 152 196 44 49 92 0 92 $32.26 10th 23rd '�` Pharmacists 215 249 34 58 91 0 91 $52.12 11th 3rd �. Insurance Sales Agents _595 759 164 171 335 250 85 $18.83 Sales Representatives, Wholesale and 12th 2nd Manufacturing, Except 1,374 1504 130 282 412 330 82 $23.10 Technical and Scientific Products 13th 30th �. Correctional Officers and 274 280 111FM 74 80 0 80 $22.19 Jailers 14th 27th '�` Human Resources Specialists 271 302 31 54 84 10 74 $22.59 15th — Automotive Service 645 759 114 180 293 220 73 $16.71 Technicians and Mechanics First-Line Supervisors of 16th 36th �. Transportation and Material- 133 151 18 39 57 0 57 $21.10 Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators Water and Wastewater 17th 43rd '�` Treatment Plant and System 1277 10 46 56 0 56 $19.61 Operators 18th 33rd �. Medical and Health Services 307 352 45 81 126 70 56 $36.18 Managers 7 2015 2014 Trend 2015 2025 Replace- Open- Rank Rank of Description Jobs Jobs Growth ments ings uates Gap Hourly gap Earnings 19th 29th �` Veterinarians 120 131 11 44 54 0 54 $41.11 20th 47th ,r Dispatchers, Except Police, 101 119 18 32 50 0 50 $17.76 Fire,and Ambulance 21st 39th ,r Highway Maintenance 246 257 11 37 48 0 48 $20.87 Workers 22nd 22nd '�` Lawyers 191 205 14 32 46 0 46 $35.67 First-Line Supervisors of 23rd 7th Office and Administrative 674 809 135 179 314 270 44 $20.17 Support Workers First-Line Supervisors of 24th 32nd �` Helpers, Laborers,and 93 108 15 28 43 0 43 $21.08 Material Movers, Hand 25th 35th �. First-Line Supervisors of 148 170 22 20 42 0 42 $28.13 Non-Retail Sales Workers 26th — Painters,Construction and 123 139 16 25 41 0 41 $17.82 Maintenance 27th 44th ,�, Training and Development 127 152 25 26 51 10 41 $20.67 Specialists 28th 34th �` Advertising Sales Agents 65 76 11 29 39 0 39 $17.46 29th — ,r Plumbers, Pipefitters,and 237 291 54 33 87 50 37 $26.63 Steamfitters 30th — Librarians 123 131 8 29 36 0 36 $21.27 31st 31st Dentists,General , 66 83 17 19 36 0 36 $66.45 32nd 46th ,r Paralegals and Legal 136 148 12 23 35 0 35 $19.85 Assista nts Special Education Teachers, 33rd — Kindergarten and 145 154 9 26 34 0 34 $23.22 Elementary School 34th 25th ,r Brickmasons and 219 275 56 38 93 60 33 $20.73 Blockmasons 35th 42nd .�. Mental Health Counselors 89 101 12 21 33 0 33 $18.48 36th 49th '�` Sheet Metal Workers 93 104 11 21 32 0 32 $21.68 Crushing,Grinding,and Polishing Machine Setters, 65 74 9 22 30 0 30 $16.36 Operators, and Tenders 38th — Telecommunications Line 58 70 12 18 29 0 29 $21.41 Installers and Repairers 39th — ,r Speech-Language 79 95 16 13 29 0 29 $28.93 Pathologists 40th — Compliance Officers 77 90 13 16 29 0 29 $27.70 41st — Surgical Technologists ' 81 101 20 9 28 0 28 $17.84 Installation, Maintenance, 42nd — and Repair Workers,All 89 101 12 16 27 0 27 $18.32 Other 43rd — l '�` Crane and Tower Operators 56 64 8 20 27 0 27 $25.33 Excavating and Loading 44th — Machine and Dragline 120 135 15 13 27 0 27 $18.88 Operators 45th — Medical and Clinical 78 84 6 22 27 0 27 $25.15 Laboratory Technologists 8 2015 2014 Trend 2015 2025 Replace- Open- Rank Rank of Description Jobs Jobs Growth ments ings uates Gap Hourly gap Earnings 46th — Human Resources Managers 84 97 13 23 36 10 26 $39.01 47th — Chiropractors 49 t 15 11 26 0 26 $29.57 48th — Occupational Therapists 60 76 16 10 25 0 25 $28.13 49th — ,r Meeting,Convention,and 43 16 7 22 0 22 $16.36 Event Planners Education Administrators, 50th — Elementary and Secondary 186 197 11 52 62 40 22 $42.09 School 51't — 1 �, Education Administrators, 5 18 44 62 40 22 $34.98 Postsecondary 52nd — Special Education Teachers, 99 104 5 17 22 0 22 $24.84 Secondary School Property, Real Estate,and 5Yd 37th '�` Community Association 57 64 7 15 22 0 22 $17.02 Managers 54th — Structural Iron and Steel 41 48 7 14 21 0 21 $24.49 Workers First-Line Supervisors of 55th — '�` Farming, Fishing,and 58 65 7 14 21 0 21 $28.18 Forestry Workers — Telecommunications 56th — Equipment Installers and 54 66 12 9 20 0 20 $23.48 Repairers, Except Line Installers 57th — Medical Equipment 26 12 9 20 0 220.76 Repairers 04 58th — Fundraisers 62 70 8 13 20 0 20 $20.24 59th 40th ,r Physicians and Surgeons,All 150 1 11 39 50 30 Other Computer,Automated 60th — '�` Teller,and Office Machine 51 59 8 12 19 0 19 $17.27 Repairers Totals for i occupations 12,850 ii 3,762 *see Appendix B forsOC Code and full occupation description. AThe total number of projected graduates is unduplicated;in the line by line occupational skills gaps, some projected graduates are counted for more than one occupation because they would qualify for multiple occupations. 9 pEFINITIONS `How does EMSI calculate projections? If you use an EMSI product or service, chances are you've seen some of our labor market projections. We provide detailed job estimates, by industry and occupation, for each of the next 10 years from the current year. A common question that we get from clients who see these figures is where do EMSI projections come from?The short answer is that we create our projections based on past trends carried forward, and published projections from state and federal sources. If you're after something a little more detailed, read on. The first step in both our industry and occupation projections is our robust industry data. We first create simple short-, mid-, and long-term trend lines for every industry and county based on the historical data. Those lines are then averaged and dampened to prevent extreme change. We then incorporate national industry projections (BLS national employment projections) as well as state and regional projections provided by state labor market organizations to adjust these numbers again. Finally, we take aggregate geography and industry group figures for 10-year percentage change and make sure it matches the corresponding published geography and industry numbers. EMSI projections will not match the BLS or any other individual state projections at the most detailed level. This can be explained in a variety of ways: Differences in Coverage EMSI has broken out our labor market data into four different classes of worker that allow our clients to dig into specific elements of their economy. In most states, the first two classes of workers (QCEW Employees and Non- QCEW Employees) are most closely comparable to the industry projections from the published sources. We don't expect our self-employment and proprietors projections to match BLS and state-level projections. We Don't Use BLS/State Occupation Projections (except for our Annual Job Openings estimates) Our occupation projections are based off of our industry numbers with our projected, regionalized staffing pattern applied to the figures. As a result, the occupation projections will necessarily differ from BLS occupation numbers. Differences in Methodology EMSI uses a combination of BLS, state, and internal projection methods. This will naturally differ from the BLS and state projections alone. Release Lag EMSI projections are based on the most recent available data and published projections, but the BLS and states release only long-term projections on a two-year basis. EMSI's internal projections are more heavily weighted as state/national projections age. 10 Occupation Data EMSI occupation employment data are based on final EMSI industry data and final EMSI staffing patterns. Wage estimates are based on Occupational Employment Statistics (QCEW and Non-QCEW Employees classes of worker) and the American Community Survey (Self-Employed and Extended Proprietors). Occupational wage estimates also affected by county-level EMSI earnings by industry. Institution Data The institution data in this report is taken directly from the national IPEDS database published by the U.S. Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics. Industry Data EMSI industry data have various sources depending on the class of worker. (1) For QCEW Employees, EMSI primarily uses the QCEW(Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages), with supplemental estimates from County Business Patterns and Current Employment Statistics. (2) Non-QCEW employee data are based on a number of sources including QCEW, Current Employment Statistics, County Business Patterns, BEA State and Local Personal Income reports, the National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix (NIOEM), the American Community Survey, and Railroad Retirement Board statistics. (3) Self-Employed and Extended Proprietor classes of worker data are primarily based on the American Community Survey, Nonemployer Statistics, and BEA State and Local Personal Income Reports. Projections for QCEW and Non-QCEW Employees are informed by NIOEM and long-term industry projections published by individual states. State Data Sources This report uses state data from the following agencies: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Employment Projections, Iowa Workforce Development, Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, Bureau of Workforce Information Class of Worker Explained EMSI creates data for four distinct job types, or Classes of Worker(CoW): QCEW, Non-QCEW, Self- Employed, and Extended Proprietors. For simplicity, our basic Class of Worker option in Analyst is broken into two groups: Employees (a combo of QCEW and Non-QCEW), and Self-Employed. 11 COMPLETE LIST OF REPORT SOURCES - U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • State Personal Income and Employment(SPI) • Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW) • Local Area Personal Income and Employment(LPI) • Current Employment Statistics(CES) • National Income and Product Accounts(NIPA) • Current Population Survey(CPS) • Annual Input-Output(1-0)Accounts • Local Area Unemployment Statistics(LAUS) • Benchmark Input-Output(1-0)Accounts • National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix(10-year, • GDP by State current/projected) U.S. CENSUS BUREAU • Occupational Employment Statistics(OES) • American Community Survey(ACS) • Occupational Education and Training Projections • County Business Patterns(CBP) EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING ADMINISTRATION • ZIP Code Business Patterns(ZBP) • Characteristics of the Insured Unemployed • Nonemployer Statistics(NES) • National O*NET Consortium O*NET Production Database • Quarterly Workforce Indicators(QWI) U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION, NATIONAL • OnTheMap(OTM) CENTER FOR EDUCATION STATISTICS • TIGER/Line File(with additions by DM Solutions Group) • Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System(IPEDS) • Population Estimates program • Office of Educational Research and Improvement forthe CIP– • U.S. National and State Population Projections SOC crosswalk,Classification of Instructional Programs • Census 2000&2010 Summary Files Crosswalk to Standard Occupational Classification • Census of Government— U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN o State and Local Government Finances by State SERVICES, NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH • Journey-to-Work(JtW) • Consumer Expenditures Survey(CEJ) STATISTICS • Current Population Survey(CPS) • Health, United States U.S. POSTAL SERVICE OTHER SOURCES • Address Information Systems(AIS) Products, Delivery Statistics • AIS Products, 5-Digit ZIP Product PRIVATE SOURCES • AIS Products, City State Product • Job postings from CareerBuilder U.S. RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD • Infogroup business-level data • Annual Railroad Retirement Act and Railroad Unemployment Insurance Act Statistical Tables STATE SOURCES • State and sub-state[where available]industry projections U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY produced by all 50 individual states. OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY • County-to-County Distance Matrix(Skim Tree) 12